NBA Betting: Part 2

stormyseal9 said:Carmelo under 27.5
-it’s basically the same story for him as it is for the rest of the squad. I mean, he dropped 30 on the Miami Heat last time (10-28), but honestly, most of that was thanks to his perimeter game (he was 4-8 from deep), but today? I don't think he's going to go crazy for those reasons alone—you have to account for the fact that Marcus Camby and DeAndre Chandler are back in the rotation, which should naturally eat up some of those shot attempts.

Look, Chandler played this last game, so there's no "return" to speak of there... and as for Camby, if he ends up taking like five shots, I’ve said my piece—that’s not really going to touch Carmelo's volume at all. He's just one of those guys who is always going to hunt down his 15-20 looks, and he can pretty much drop 30 points on any team without even breaking a sweat... so players like that are always such a gamble to bet on. If he gets hot and starts hunting, he'll easily cruise to 25-30 shots, and then the over starts looking super tempting... obviously, I'm rooting for the under here too, I'm just throwing out my two cents and making a few tweaks to the logic. 😉

Keith Moore21 said:DeAndre Chandler played last game, so there’s no going back on that one... and if Marcus Camby only grabs five shots, I’ve already said enough, so that doesn't even touch Carmelo Anthony's shot count... I mean, this is the kind of guy who is always gonna demand his 15-20 touches, and he can drop 30 points on any squad without even breaking a sweat... which makes guys like him such a massive gamble to bet on... if he gets hot and starts hunting, he’ll easily rack up 25-30 attempts, and then the over looks super tempting... obviously, I'm rooting for the under, but I'm just giving you my two cents and some little corrections 😉

Look, I agree Chandler was out there, but he only logged 24 minutes because he's feeling under the weather and only took five shots—usually he’s looking at closer to ten—and nobody is saying Carmelo Anthony can't chuck 30+ shots, right? The real question is whether he actually *will*, because if you’ve been paying any attention lately, he hasn't been anywhere near those volume numbers he used to hit🤷. Some people just stare at what happened in the last game, but me? I look at way more than just that😉. Of course, none of this is a guarantee because every single game is its own beast, but if someone is hitting the under 90% of the time, I don't think that's just luck, I think it's a pattern with a few random exceptions thrown in here and there🤷. Most of the time I’m leaning toward the over, especially with him, but the Philadelphia 76ers aren't the Denver Nuggets or some other defensive powerhouse where you have to grind out every point; with them, it's all about who can just outscore the other side😉.

Minnesota without Kevin Love and Rubio is a mess. They can't even remember their last win in Canada, and now they've got the Toronto Raptors waiting like a loaded gun. Where are all those NBA experts talking about this duo? 🙂

but.. I don't trust Toronto either. Honestly, I don't think that squad has any real ceiling. Reputation-wise, they aren't going much further than a team like the Milwaukee Bucks, regardless of having Brooklyn guys, Kyle Lowry, and the rest...

☕

The Timberwolves are looking shallow, like a tiny creek☕

aha, just realized that was the IMF😁

Roy and Barea are going to tear them apart with those three-pointers☕
peković should probably dominate under the rim since, honestly, there isn't a serious center out there facing him today...

I think we'll see a high-scoring game because both teams are more than just offensive-minded...

pick?

New York City(186.5)-Minnesota over @1.85

☕

Solid pick. Honestly, they could easily clear 200 field goals.☕

Man, one parlay just went up in smoke, but I’ve still got another one breathing life right now featuring Anthony Edwards + Jalen Holiday😍—which, honestly, I totally missed including in my breakdown. Now I’m just sitting here white-knuckling it, waiting on the Orlando Magic to cover that -2.5 spread and praying Bradley Beal hits his over on 15.5 points☕.

P.S. Is there anything more satisfying than when an over and an under both hit at the exact same time depending on which sportsbook you used?😉 It's basically a total win-win situation if you play it smart enough👍.

Anthony Barrett37 said:wolves are gonna tear through them like a shallow stream☕

aha, just realized that was the IMF😁

Roy Hibbert and J. J. Barea might just take them out with some tricks☕
Peja Peković should probably dominate under the rim here since, honestly, there isn't any serious center facing him today...

I'm thinking a high-scoring game, maybe, because both teams are pretty offensive-minded...

pick?

Toronto (186.5)-Minnesota Timberwolves over @1.85

☕

191

My first NBA pick of the season hit routinely☕

stormyseal9 said:Man, one ticket just went up in smoke, absolutely gutted, but hey, there's still a second one alive and kicking with Anthony Davis + Jrue Holiday still in the mix!😍Oh man, I totally missed adding Jrue Holiday over 16.5 to my breakdown! My bad! Now I’m just sitting here sweating, waiting on the Orlando Magic to cover that -2.5 spread and praying DeMar DeRozan hits his over 15.5. Fingers crossed!☕.

Man, there is absolutely nothing more infuriating than when the over and the under both hit at the exact same time depending on which sportsbook you're looking at! Like, are you kidding me right now? How does that even happen? It’s enough to drive anyone insane!😉It’s a total win-win situation, isn't it? Honestly, when everything just lines up like that, what can you even say? It’s one of those rare moments where everybody walks away happy, and frankly, if you aren't seeing the upside here, I don't know what to tell you!👍

A little bit of cash just rolled in—nothing crazy, mind you, but hey, a win is a win and it definitely puts a smile on my face!🎉I woke up around 4:30 AM thinking I’d grab the Phoenix Suns spread, hoping they’d at least cover +15 to make the early morning grind worth it, but man, those Orlando Magic really lived up to their name and just absolutely tore everything apart, finishing with a massive +21 win!🙏

I don't really have much time to dive deep here, so I'll just give you two quick picks

Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz 1
The home team has the edge here—the Jazz are usually a different beast when they're playing at home, but honestly, they look like a totally different squad on the road, and I just don't see how they pull off an upset against a Memphis Grizzlies team this solid...
LA Clippers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 1
There isn't even much point in overanalyzing this one; the odds pretty much tell the whole story (@1,20). The home side is way more talented, and anything other than a win for them would be a massive shock...

Favorite sportsbook

Jrue Holiday over 16.5 – I took him at 14.5 yesterday, but they’ve already bumped the line up today. Even at a local spot, it’s sitting at 17.5 now. One thing that feels a bit off to me, though... in the main book, the Jrue Holiday over 16.5 is at 1.95, while in the HL, it's 15.5 at 1.60. They aren't really in sync, I guess, but whatever. It's the same matchup as yesterday, Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks, only since Philly is playing at home today, they should probably perform a bit better. I'm hoping Jrue Holiday stays on that same level he was at last game (27 points).

Brooklyn Nets vs Minnesota Timberwolves – The Brooklyn Nets look solid; they seem a lot stronger than they were last year. I don't think we even need to go into detail about what Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, or Brook Lopez bring to the table. The only real downside is that Gerald Wallace is a question mark today after twisting his ankle on that flashy defensive play last game. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are dealing with some injuries. They'll be without their top guy, Kevin Love, today; Ricky Rubio is out too, and J. J. Barea, who played so well during their win earlier this season, likely won't suit up. I suspect that might be too much of a burden for them, though I'm not entirely sure how they'll hold up against the intense atmosphere in the Nets' arena combined with facing a better roster...

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers 2.60
Even though Dallas is playing at home, I’m leaning toward the Portland Trail Blazers here—I have a feeling LMA is going to be absolutely unstoppable today, just raining buckets... especially with guys like Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews joining the rotation, plus the rookies Damian Lillard and Mason Zeller coming in. If Batum and Matthews start hitting from deep, their team chemistry could give anyone trouble. Given these odds, I feel compelled to take this...

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers 2 @ 2.60
Even though Dallas is at home, I’m leaning toward the Portland Trail Blazers. I think LMA should absolutely tear it up today and just rain buckets. Plus, with guys like Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews joining the mix alongside rookies Damian Lillard and Mason Zeller, their team chemistry could beat anyone—especially if Batum and Matthews start hitting from deep. At these odds, I’ve gotta take this.

Man, I have no idea how you figured Zeller is playing for Portland; he was actually drafted by Dallas before being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Regardless, I agree this is a 50-50 toss-up, so betting on Portland makes more sense.

Personally, I’m looking at the Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks game going under. Without Andrew Bynum in the mix, the Knicks feel way stronger than Philly, though if the Knicks get stuck in a three-point shooting slump, it could be a close one—even without a massive scoring night.
Memphis Grizzlies are a lock; I wouldn't touch the spread, it'll probably land right around there. I’m staying away from the Cleveland Cavaliers against the spread too, even though it looks tempting. They absolutely crushed me against the Chicago Bulls recently... a 30-point blowout, honestly wtf. For the Brooklyn Nets vs Minnesota Timberwolves game, I'll take the Brooklyn Nets in the spread. They didn't play great last time and lost to a decent Toronto Raptors team that's twice as good as last year. This Minnesota squad looks weak; maybe Roy Hibbert or Peja Peković could step up if they catch fire, but otherwise, I don't see it. Andrei Kirilenko isn't really stepping into that leader role, so I doubt he can carry them tonight. Plus, they lost to that same Toronto team by 20, so the writing is on the wall.

Honestly, I think it's pure madness that the bookies would set the line at 89.5 points for a shooting squad like the New York Knicks, no matter who they're facing.

Tony Parker over 1.85

+
(94.5) Indiana Pacers under 1.85

Man, Hill is really struggling out there.
He’s definitely not at a hundred percent right now.
But hey, I’ve got a feeling Parker is going to be absolutely dialed in today!
I honestly think Hibbert is going to be playing like he's up against Tim Duncan; it’s gonna be a massive grind.

ps. Green is out. Young is getting the start.
Manu won't be seeing more than 20 minutes on the floor.

Keith Moore21 said:I'm in a bit of a rush, so here’s a quick lightning round of picks

Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz 1
The home side looks solid here—Utah is usually a different beast when they're playing at home, but they completely fall apart on the road, and I just don't see how they pull an upset against a Memphis Grizzlies squad this good...
LA Clippers vs Cleveland Cavaliers 1
Honestly, you don't even need to overthink this one. The odds tell the whole story (@1.20)—the home team is way more talented, so anything other than a win for them would be a massive shocker...

103:94 👍

101:108 👎

Screw those "sure things" at 1.20 and stuff like that—I'm done chasing those...

Keith Moore21 said:103:94 👍

101:108 👎

I'm done with these stupid "draw" bets at 1.20 odds or whatever, I just don't touch that junk anymore...

The thing about betting on draws is there's zero luck involved, just pure risk with absolutely no actual money to be made from it🤷. Honestly, you're better off hitting a spread at 1.85 or just taking a straight win if the odds look juicy, especially since the bookies totally miscalculated things like they did during that Golden State Warriors vs Memphis game😉,and today the selection actually looks decent even though there are only three games on the board; I've got one matchup locked in, but I'm not saying a word until my bet is actually placed☕.

stormyseal9 said:I mean, betting like that is just asking for trouble—you're taking all this risk without any real upside🤷. Honestly, I'd rather stick to a spread around 1.85 or just a straight win if the odds look decent. Bookies always seem to miscalculate things sometimes, kind of like what happened with the Golden State Warriors vs Memphis game the other day😉. Today’s lineup is actually pretty solid, even if there are only three games on the board. I’ve got one matchup locked in my mind, but I’m not saying a word until I actually put my money down☕.

Exactly. I'm totally done chasing those tiny odds... yesterday had a few really nice matchups, but man, whenever I try to play a single or maybe a double at most... my luck was basically just being able to grab Memphis Grizzlies -5.5, so I guess I managed to snag that despite how much the LA Clippers were sucking lately...

If you ask me, I’m feeling some serious value on the Orlando Magic over 9.5 points spread against the Chicago Bulls today. Let’s be real—is Chicago even a threat without Derrick Rose? Not really. On the flip side, the Orlando Magic have come out of the gate looking absolutely electric, so I think they’ve got this spread covered. Also, I’ve got a hunch the Denver Nuggets finally grab their first win of the season today, and I'm eyeing an OKC win over the Toronto Raptors too. What do you guys think? Am I crazy here?

I mean, come on, the Brooklyn Nets couldn't even find a way to drop 4 points in those last 4:30 minutes 😠