NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Honestly, betting on individual player props these days just isn't worth the headache. Unless you're looking at a team absolutely desperate to clinch a playoff spot, most squads are just coasting. They're resting their starters, messing around in practice, or just playing games with the intensity levels. It's all just noise at this point.

ruggedgull32 said:I guess I’ve finally thrown in the towel on betting player props. The over/under markets for individual players just aren't worth the headache anymore.That’s how it goes for the rest of the crew, I suppose. I suppose we're all just sitting around waiting for the PO to finally kick in.☕

I suppose you're right about the players, but I think you might be off base regarding Bolden.
Now is exactly when you have to strike. This is the moment to get in there and start placing bets. Honestly, the bookmakers are making massive mistakes right now; their lines are off by at least seven or ten points. It’s an obvious opening if you know where to look.
I’m going to do a little research first, then I'll post what I think is the most likely parlay. Honestly, today's slate is pretty much a disaster—there aren't any major derbies or high-stakes matchups on the schedule. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean the picks will be bad. I suppose it's actually easier to think clearly when there isn't a massive influx of low-quality games cluttering up the menu.

After looking into the numbers, I think I’ll stick with the -13.5 handicap on Cleveland. Of course, they went ahead and crushed that line at 1.75.

I missed Washington at over 100.5—honestly, how did that slip past me? I suppose the odds on Charlotte looked a bit too slim for my liking, so I relegated it to my "worth a shot" pile. Then again, even when the Wizards were facing much tougher opponents at home, they managed to hold their own. They generally seem more composed and physically dominant when playing on their home court.

graniteotter6 said:Look, I'm with you on the players, that makes sense. But you're totally off on the Bolden situation.
Right NOW is when you have to play this and grab it. Right NOW, the bookies are making a massive mistake and the margins are off by at least 7 or 10 points.
Gonna go do some digging, then I'll post my best bet, even though today's slate is a total disaster. No big derbies or anything major going down, but that doesn't mean it won't be good. Honestly, it’s easier to think straight when there aren't a million mediocre games cluttering up the menu.

Okay, did my homework: sticking with the -13.5 handicap on CLE, though obviously they crushed the line down to 1.75.

And Washington over 100.5 (how did I miss that?!). The odds on Charlotte's form were way too low. But that's in my "worth a shot" pile. The Wizards have been giving heavyweights about 100 points at home, and they're generally better, tougher, and sharper when playing on their own floor.

...I feel like my logic regarding over/under was solid. It's the players who determine if the game goes over or under, right? And who's actually hitting the court matters. So I'm not just out here guessing blindly...
Once the playoffs kick in, we'll have plenty of time to make money... or lose it.🤷

graniteotter6 said:Look, I'm fine with your take on the players—that part is okay—but you’re totally tripping up when it comes to the bolded section.
You have to play this RIGHT NOW. This is the window—take it. Bookies are making massive, fundamental mistakes right now—margins are off by at least 7 to 10 points. It’s a total gift.

I’m with you on this one. Honestly, even betting the under on individual players isn't a bad move—provided their teams have already locked in a playoff spot or if you're looking at the overs for guys on those bottom-tier squads. My only gripe is that there's zero action on players from the real basement dwellers. I remember last year toward the end of the season, you could actually put some real money on those types of props. Not seeing much of that now.

[User Profile: vodkamartini007] kaže:
Alright, after looking at the numbers—I’m sticking with the -13.5 handicap on Cleveland. Of course they crushed him down to 1.75. Typical.

I missed Washington over 100.5—how the hell did that slip past me?! The line for Charlotte was way too low, but I had them tucked away in my "worth a shot" pile. Look, the Wizards have been getting bullied at home by teams way better than them lately, and honestly? They’re usually much tougher, sharper, and more physical when they play on their own court.

The Grizzlies are still in the hunt for that 4th seed and they’ve got home-court advantage on their side—so honestly, I don't see them playing games with the lineup. They'll probably sit Randolph again to keep him fresh for the playoffs—his stamina is their biggest weapon—and if he's out, I doubt Gay is stepping up much either. Cleveland actually looked decent last night, given the circumstances in San Antonio—playing without Duncan and with Parker and Ginobili seeing limited minutes. But let's be real: we saw exactly what kind of team they are when they were getting blown out by Detroit by 50 points! Memphis is the type of squad that can absolutely dismantle a team like that in a single quarter—though, frankly, I’m worried today might not go according to plan. Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to take... Staying under 190.5. I don't even know where to start with this. Just... nothing. Absolutely nothing. Gay, over 18.5.He’s looking sharp—in great shape, actually—plus Randolph is sitting this one out.
Regarding... Washington’s going over 100.5—period.Honestly, that looks like a better bet to me—especially when you consider who we're actually dealing with on the other side.🤣 And hey, like I said—the Wizards look a hell of a lot better at home. Booker’s back in the lineup too, even if Wall is still a total question mark. Personally? I'm seeing a massive spread for the home team here. Washington -10.5. Don't get cute with these spreads..

And for the rest:
Indiana-Detroit under 191.5 — simple enough. Let's see if they actually pull it off.
Indiana already locked up that 3rd seed, so I’m betting they’ll give some of their starters a breather today—which means their offensive rhythm might be a bit off. On the flip side, Detroit’s offense is pretty lackluster; we've seen them struggle to even hit the 70-point mark lately (they did it at home just yesterday). Honestly, this line feels way too high for me.
UPDATE: Granger, Hibbert, and Hill are out of the starting lineup!

Milwaukee-Toronto under 201.5.
The Bucks are basically out of the playoff hunt at this point. Meanwhile, Toronto—even without their main guys lately—has been playing surprisingly solid defense. If that keeps the Bucks capped around the 100-point mark, the under should be an easy play here.

And just like that—New Jersey to Philly. Done.
This one hits different—it’s the last time the Nets ever play in Newark after 35 years. Between all the trips down memory lane and honoring the club's legends, there’s going to be some serious emotional weight in that arena. Honestly? The Nets players won't need any extra coaching to find their motivation tonight—they'll be playing for something much bigger than just a win.
Philly has basically locked in their playoff spot—they’d need to lose all three while the Bucks win all three just to be out—and they’ve got both the Bucks and Pistons at home. Plus, let's be real, they want that 8th seed. It's almost a guarantee for them to face the Bulls, who are a much better matchup than Heat. They haven't exactly been playing lights-out lately, though.
New Jersey took two out of three from them this year (both on the road). Twice the Nets went over the 89.5 line, and in the one they lost at home, they put up 88.
In my book, that 1.20 price on Philly is total garbage.🤷 Sure, the Nets are without Williams, but the context of this game and the Sixers' situation in the East tells a different story. I don't see the Nets having any trouble covering the spread, and probably hitting the over too. So:
Nets +8.5 / Over 89.5 (even though the Nets +8.5 jumped to 2.00🤷)

What are we doing with our Bobcats under 90.5?😂
Doesn't look like they have it in them to go over.

Portland is missing Felton and Przybilla, maybe even Batum and Crawford too. And since the Spurs are likely going to rest their "old guys," I'm calling it now:Portland under 96.5. Honestly, probably also San Antonio -12.5. Remember when Portland was +40? The Spurs haven't forgotten...🙂

The board actually looks pretty solid today.😁😁
But something about these matchups is bugging me.🤣
Confirm one of these and let's cash!😁

ruggedgull32 said:I think I laid out my logic regarding over/under bets pretty clearly. At the end of the day, the players are the ones driving the outcome—whether the total goes over or under depends entirely on who takes the field and when they play. It’s not like it makes no difference. I guess I’m just spinning my wheels here now.
Once the match-fixing starts picking up, there’ll be plenty of opportunities to either make a quick buck or lose it all. I guess it depends on how much risk you're willing to stomach.🤷

I suppose I was a bit too blunt there. You didn't do anything wrong. Necessary.Let’s take a second to actually think about this. How many times have you placed an "under" bet on Team A just because you read some rumor that their leading scorer might sit out? And how did that usually turn out? In my experience, someone always steps up and delivers a massive performance, mostly because we're talking about the NBA—where the talent pool is essentially the best players on the planet. You probably shouldn't rely so heavily on "insider" tips.

Dana Baker2 said:I suppose betting the under on individual players isn't a bad move if their teams have already locked in a playoff spot, or if you're looking at the overs for guys on bottom-tier teams. It just seems like the market hasn't really offered much for players on the struggling squads lately; I seem to recall we had far more opportunities to capitalize on that toward the end of last season.

True, but then again, they usually don't even put them on the field to begin with.
When it comes to the betting lines for those underdog teams, you're spot on. I recall seeing the exact same pattern playing out this time last year.

Well, the Grizzlies are still fighting for that fourth seed and home-court advantage. If that’s the case, I suppose there isn't much room for playing it safe. That said, we saw exactly what kind of team they can be when they were getting absolutely shredded by 50 points against Detroit. Memphis usually has a knack for dismantling teams like this in a single quarter, though I have my doubts about whether that's going to happen today.

That’s true, but if gambling were actually based on math and logic... 😉

As for everything else:
I’m leaning toward the under on Indiana vs. Detroit, specifically looking at that 191.5 line. I guess if both offenses decide to play it safe for once, we might actually see a lower score, though I suppose that's optimistic of me. Maybe.
Indiana has already locked in third place, so I suspect they might give one of their starters a rest today. If that happens, we could see a bit of a dip in their offensive production. On the flip side, Detroit has been struggling to find any rhythm lately; they’re one of those teams that can easily stall out and end up stuck in the 70s—which is exactly what happened at home yesterday. Given that, the current line feels a little too high for my liking.
Update: It looks like Granger, Hibbert, and Hill aren't in the starting lineup. I guess we'll see how that plays out.

And there it is. Just like that, you end up with a glorified exhibition match. Who knows what the fallout will be? Probably nothing, I suppose. If I were calling this one, I’d probably lean toward the over rather than the under.

I’m looking at the Milwaukee-Toronto matchup and leaning toward the under 201.5. It feels like one of those games where the offensive rhythm might just struggle to find any real traction. I guess we'll see if the pace holds up, but my money is on a lower-scoring affair.
The Bucks have already been knocked out of the playoffs, so this matchup feels like it’s essentially just playing for pride at this point. On the other hand, Toronto has been playing surprisingly solid lately despite being without their key players, and they haven't been giving up many points either. If the Bucks get held to around 100, I guess there shouldn't be much of an issue hitting the under here.

I initially listed this as a secondary pair, but then I realized my mistake regarding the Wiz Boys. So, yeah. It’s actually possible.

If you ask me, offering odds of 1.20 on Phil just doesn't make any sense.🤷 I suspect the Nets shouldn't have any trouble covering the spread, and they'll likely clear the over as well. So, anyway...
I'm leaning toward the Nets at +8.5, though I’ll probably take the over on 89.5. It feels like a reasonable play, I guess, provided the scoring actually picks up.

I touched on this earlier this afternoon, so here it is. 😉

What exactly are we going to do about our own? I suppose I’m leaning toward the Bobcats taking the under on 90.5. It feels like a reasonable call, though I might be overthinking it. Maybe they'll find their rhythm, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.?😂
It seems to me they weren't meant to make it through.

What can you really do? While things are heading south, they’re heading south. I guess you just keep doubling down.

I’m leaning toward Portland staying under 96.5. I guess there's a decent chance the offense might struggle to find its rhythm tonight, though I suppose it's always a bit of a gamble with these types of totals. Maybe they'll hit it, maybe they won't, but my money is on the under..

My parlay fell through. Maybe I'll have some luck on the next one, I guess. 😁

If someone could just confirm one of these details, we might actually be able to get this show on the road.

I suppose we should probably call it quits. We seem to be thinking along the exact same lines, and for us bettors, that’s usually a recipe for disaster. It almost always ends up working out against us. 😁

graniteotter6 said:And there it is—total blowout. You ended up with a glorified exhibition game. Who knows what happens next? Nothing. Honestly, I would’ve played the over instead of the under on that one.

Yeah, you're right, but that's just how most teams play toward the end of the season. It was the same deal with Detroit last night—they stayed under 150! In my opinion, Detroit isn't even capable of hitting 90 points in a game like this.

graniteotter6 said:Looks like we're gonna take a hit—we're thinking too much alike, and that's never good for us bettors because it always ends up working against us. 😁

Well, it's not good.🤣 But hey, we agreed on the Hornets yesterday and that was an easy win.😉
We have to take some risks sometimes, but I'm not talking about going all in on everything.😁 We need to filter through the noise once more info drops.😁

It looks like my assumption was correct—the Pacers are going to take it easy tonight. 😁

Sure, the Nets could potentially wrap things up with a win and finally say goodbye to their hated arena (http://www.netsdaily.com/2012/1/21/2...dential-center), and Philly is definitely hoping to dodge Miami—though I don't see Milwaukee sweeping all three games and ruining everyone's plans.

James Taylor3 said:Yeah, maybe the Nets can sneak a win and finally say goodbye to that arena they hate (http://www.netsdaily.com/2012/1/21/2...dential-center). Philly definitely wants to dodge Miami, and I don't see Milwaukee sweeping all three games and ruining everyone's plans.

And even if they do win, they've got Detroit at home for the finale. But there's no way they win that—they're playing in Boston for their last away game instead.
They could probably cover the spread, even if they don't pull off the outright win. But those 4.60 odds? Too much juice...🤣

I might just have to throw a few bucks on the Nets and Detroit to win just so I don't feel too bad about myself later.

The Nets are sitting at +9.5 with odds of 1.90, and the over/under is pegged at 88.5 at the local sportsbooks. 🤷 I’ll be the first to admit I don't claim to be a genius or anything, but looking at all the stats out there, this feels like a winner, right?! 🙄

Lawrence Castillo76 said:I should probably just bet on the Nets and Detroit to win for a few dozen bucks, just so I don't feel bad later.

Then show us the slip with those few dozen bucks on it.😉

From now on, don't mention specific amounts unless you've got a photo of the ticket.🙂

My bad for bringing up the roles

Lawrence Castillo76 said:My bad for bringing up roles again.

It's all good. Just don't bring it up again until you actually post a screenshot of the ticket.😉

I currently have a wager placed on DraftKings. Should I provide proof? 😁

Eric Fox7 said:Did anyone catch that elbow from Artest on Harden? 😲
What a complete nutcase. That’s just plain fiction. 🤮

Regarding that whole situation...

While Artest was busy celebrating that shot, Harden went over and poked the bear. He provoked him. I’ll admit, Artest's reaction was way out of line—going full knockout mode like that. It was excessive. Luckily, nobody ended up in the hospital for it.

Let’s be clear: that punch didn't just come out of nowhere. Artest has always been a loose cannon. He had a history of getting physical on the court, racking up technicals, and he even served ten days in jail at one point for some unspecified reason. Given that track record, I actually agree with the sentiment—he needs to be kicked out of the NBA. 🤷

The spread on Washington just dropped to 9.5🤷, while the Spurs jumped up to 13.5! Or was it already that high—was I looking at different US betting sites earlier?

Don't sweat it just because everyone else is obsessing over the stats.
It seems like everybody is stuck in this mindset of "they have to win now, they absolutely have to." Well, I guess they don't.😁

graniteotter6 said:Don't sweat it—everyone else is just playing the numbers game anyway.
Everyone’s playing this "they have to act now, they have to act right now" logic game. Newsflash—they don't.😁

Do the Bobcats have to just go all-in on one big play?🤣
So, what are the two of us supposed to do now? You gonna filter this shit out or what?
The odds over at FanDuel are getting absolutely ridiculous—on Indy vs. Detroit, they just jumped to the Memphis handicap at 12.5?! Whatever. I have to get my bets in by noon anyway. I’ll probably just throw some cash down at South Station and see what happens.😁

Mark Williams15 said:The NBA should just be played against the favorites—because half the time you look back, some underdog pulled an upset, and those are the odds you want, like 3, 4, or 5
or betting on a tie with odds around 14 or 15.

Fine then—just bet the tie every single time and crank up the stake. When you've got 10+ games on the slate in a day, you'll eventually stumble onto a draw somewhere.😉

Let's say you have 10 games on the slate and you pick one to be a draw. You put down, say, a hundred bucks per game, and if that coefficient hits at 15, you walk away with a nice little profit
If there aren't as many games scheduled for the day, then you just play every single game over a couple of days in a row

🙂