NBA Betting: Vol. 2

1.55 on the Heat is a decent line, and I suspect it’ll drop quickly once the news breaks that Dwyane Wade is sitting this one out.

Miami rested both Wade and Bosh for tonight; yesterday, both squads handled the Raptors with relative ease. This game carries significant weight. A win here puts the Heat within striking distance of the Chicago Bulls for first place, whereas a Bulls victory essentially clinches the race. Unfortunately, Derrick Rose is very unlikely to suit up. There's a slim chance he plays if that fluid buildup in his leg subsides—expect an update around 6:00 or 7:00 PM—but I wouldn't hold my breath. It’s better if he recovers fully before the Dallas matchup on Saturday. Luol Deng will likely be in the lineup, which should at least slow LeBron down slightly.

While every previous matchup between these two teams has been a nail-biter right down to the final minutes (with the exception of the first game of the Conference Finals), I don't see that being the case tonight. I expect Miami to handle business fairly comfortably. If the spread ends up under 5.5, I’m taking that as well.

Additionally, I like the Nash under as a secondary play. We have to account for the fact that Nash played last night—though only for 28 minutes—and we also have to factor in Chris Paul, who is widely regarded as an elite defensive point guard. In his last two appearances, Nash managed only 7 total points.

Good luck to everyone playing tonight.👋

I’d love to bet on Miami, but I just can't bring myself to do it. No matter how much Chicago struggles, they always seem to find a way to pull through. Is there something in the water? My gut tells me Chicago takes it again tonight. Hamilton is heating up, and since Deng is perpetually sidelined, it doesn't change much. Watson might actually step up and play like a legitimate Rose replacement, just like he has all season. If Boozer plays smart, he could wreck Miami's paint, Noah will likely feast on boards, and that dirty specialist Korver could easily sink another few triples from downtown.

So, I'm staying far away from this one. Anything can happen, right?

I’m really feeling Griffin over 20.5 points @ 2.20 odds

I mean, look, the Suns basically have the worst interior defense in the league right now; guys like Frye, Lopez, and Morris just aren't cutting it defensively, and they're pretty much relying on Gortat to bail them out in the paint.

Even though Griffin hasn't been totally lighting it up lately, he hasn't even crossed this line in his last six games, so I see this as the perfect setup for him to boost those averages given who they're playing against.

Honestly, this specific line is really just a byproduct of how he's played over the last couple of outings, so I think it's worth taking a little swing at it with a small unit. If I were picking a safer number, I'd say 21.5 at 1.85/1.85 odds would be the move.☕

Grega's better than what Detroit's got going on.

Minnesota's missing guys like Jokic, Nurkic, or Love, and Grega’s just averaging about 16 anyway. Detroit’s actually looking decent after winning 3 of their last 5 at home, while Minnesota looks like they've gone 12 straight losses.

Look at these bettors acting like geniuses again with Griffin's margin. 20.5 🤣
Been betting the under on him the last three times, and it hit every single time.
So I'm not changing my strategy now. Saying this for the tenth time already: I'm mostly playing this for the free throws.
Last game against the Nuggets he went 2/6... before that it was 3/5, and the game before that was maybe around 3/8...

Gregory Cooper5 said:Respect.

Thanks, here is what I'm playing today:
James under; he barely went over against a weak Toronto team last night. Today is another high-tension matchup where both Bosh and Wade are returning, and since Deng is also covering for him, I kind of doubt he'll go over.
Monroe over, strictly because Minnesota has so many absences in the paint right now.
Detroit 1X
That's about it for today.

graniteviper2 said:Thanks, here’s my plays for today:
LeBron under, he barely cleared his over last night against a weak Toronto squad. Today is another high-stakes matchup where both Bosh and Wade are back in the rotation, and since Deng is also being managed, I really doubt he hits the over.
Monroe under, pretty much just because Minnesota is dealing with so many injuries in the paint.
Detroit moneyline or pick'em
That’s about it for me today.

Man, I can barely agree with that, honestly, because if you were actually watching the game, he had a rough 12-15 shooting night and only played about 30 minutes—if things had gone smoothly, he would've easily dropped another 10 shots, and today he’s looking at another 30+ minute workload.😉
Anyway, let me drop my slip for today; it’s nothing crazy, but sometimes these smaller picks are easier to nail.

Jennings under 19.5 @ 1.85
-Even though he played great yesterday dropping 25 points in that loss to the Wizards, he’s going to have a much tougher time today since Indiana runs a way better defense, and unlike last night, I think the Bucks are going to score about 20 fewer points, which kills his chances—especially since they've already held him to 12 and 16 points twice this season while he shot a miserable 35%.
LeBron over 27.5 @ 1.85
-He put up 28 points against the Raptors last night, going 12-of-15 from the field and 10-of-11 early on, plus he grabbed 5 boards; that was actually five of his last six games where he blew past this line. And when you look at the three matchups this year, he's been even more convincing with 30, 35, and 35 points—plus with Deng struggling with those bruised ribs, it's gonna be hard for them to keep him contained.
Milwaukee under 99.5 @ 1.85
-I don't see how the Bucks clear this number given how hot Indiana has been; in their last ten games, they've only allowed more than this total once against the Knicks, and in the last six head-to-head meetings between these two, Milwaukee only went over this line once.
Scola under 16.5 @ 1.85
-He scored 18 last night, but most of that was thanks to going 6-for-6 from the charity stripe, so I'm expecting a max of 15 today, especially since he wasn't exactly lighting it up in his last outing with only 13 points on 4-of-9 shooting.
Bosh over 16.5 @ 1.85
-The coach rested him last night, so he should provide a solid performance today like he did a week ago in that overtime loss where he dropped 20; in the other two matchups this season, he averaged 24 and 12 points, and he’s always much better at home, averaging 19.3 points on 52% shooting.

DeRozan totally screwed me yesterday, maybe I'll have some better luck today.

stormyseal9 said:I find it difficult to fully agree with that assessment. If you were actually watching the game, you’d see he only managed about 12 to 15 shots while playing roughly 30 minutes. I suppose if it had been an easy night for him, he probably would have attempted another 10 shots, but then again, today he's already looking at over 30 field goal attempts.😉

I didn't catch the game; I just couldn't bring myself to download the replay once I saw the final score this morning. It’s possible they might pull through in overtime, though. I suspect we'll see some scoring from both Wade and Bosh later today.

graniteviper2 said:I didn't catch the game, honestly couldn't bring myself to load up the stream once I already knew the score this morning, but hey, there's still a chance they go over, though I'm betting Wade and Bosh will definitely put some points on the board today.

Nobody’s actually saying that, but look, if you take those three guys, they usually knock down about 80% of their shots, right? So even if all three of them hit, they could easily push us over with something like 90 made baskets, but man, who really knows how things are gonna shake out on the court? It's unpredictable! That said, in all the games we've seen lately, LeBron's been consistently taking around 25 shots, so even if he's just playing at a fifty-fifty clip, we're looking at going over🤷, plus you can't overlook how huge the home-court advantage is—it's been the deciding factor so many times in US sports history, isn't it? Anyway, just gotta say congrats on that win yesterday, you had to pull so many parlays together to make that happen!🙏

Well, this essentially boils down to Miami’s final shot at the season if they slip up here:

K.C. Johnson ‏ @KCJHoop Close
If the Bulls beat the Heat, they lock up the top seed in the East by winning the season series. If they lose, their magic number stays at 3 due to the tiebreaker situation.

So, if the Bulls lose, they're guaranteed the number one spot regardless. If they don't, there's still a fighting chance.

I wouldn't necessarily agree—not about the Bulls specifically, but just looking at the ratios. It’s pretty obvious their play is aimed at edging out OKC or the Spurs if they end up facing them in the Finals

New Orleans (h+5,5) - Houston 2 1,85

NOLA has been playing at home lately; they’re sitting at 6-3 at the crib, though they went 3-2 on that back-to-back stretch.
HOU is hitting the road with a 4-3 record; they were 2-2 when dealing with those back-to-backs.
HOU is scoring about 98 points per game, but they're also giving up just as many.
NOLA puts up 89 but ends up giving up 93.
What’s really wild is that over their last 7 home games where they were actually the underdogs, NOLA has covered the spread every single time—they are a straight 8-0 against the spread at home!

So, yeah, HOU is still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot.
But obviously, they’ve gotta win all 4 of their remaining games, and they need both Utah and Phoenix to drop at least one game each; side note, Utah and Phoenix are actually facing off in Salt Lake City soon.

Now, let's talk about this specific matchup.
HOU's defense has been looking pretty shaky recently; they’ve been coughing up about 107 points over their last 5 outings.
On the flip side, you've got this young squad that plays some gritty defense and definitely has upside. Coach Williams has been leaning heavily on Amin lately, while keeping Ari on the bench.
Honestly, I think HOU has the edge in the frontcourt right now since they don't have Kaman in the mix.
Camby, Scola, Dalembert, Patterson & Parsons should be able to outwork NOLA's Watkins, Smith, and Amin in the paint.

Looking at the backcourt, I’d say HOU holds the advantage there too.
With Martin out, Dragic is really carrying the load and putting on some great shows by running the offense so smoothly.
When you pair him with Lee and Lowry, that trio makes for a super respectable perimeter lineup.
Then again, Eric Gordon will likely suit up tonight, which gives NOLA a nice little boost.
Vasquez has stepped up as a decent solution at point guard while Jack is out, but Belinelli and Henry are honestly just average players.

All things considered, I’m leaning toward Houston here.
They are fighting for their lives to make the playoffs, so they’ve got a better roster and they are definitely more motivated than their opponents.
NOLA isn't feeling any pressure and doesn't have that desperate hunger, so they're mostly just experimenting and testing out different guys from the bench.

I really think Houston's frontcourt is going to be the deciding factor. Between dominating the boards and having a solid perimeter game, they should be able to cover the spread easily.

Detroit vs. Minnesota, spread -11.5
Miami vs. Chicago, first half winner: Miami
Also grabbing the Milwaukee under 99.5 based on a tip from stormyseal9

The first pick has actual value here with odds at 3.3
Minnesota is missing half their roster while Detroit is showing up full strength

On the second one—these kinds of rivalry games usually stay tight until the final buzzer. The home team tends to hold the lead at the half and maintains the edge. Plus, the 1.65 odds make sense

Good luck tonight. Hopefully the results look more like yesterday’s run 🍿

IND - MIL 1; I have a feeling Indy will take this one because Milwaukee seems to be falling apart. I don't see anything sensational happening that would spark a comeback from Milwaukee against a solid Indiana squad. A moneyline bet on Indy is possible. D. Granger - over, B. Jennings - over, M. Ellis - over
MIA-CHI 1. Miami might show up in slightly better shape than Chicago. Honestly, Chicago actually has a decent shot here without Derrick Rose in the lineup. LBJ - Over, DW - Over,
NOH-HOU ki 2, though it could be a tricky one. New Orleans looks strong at home, and Houston isn't exactly a powerhouse. If Gordon finds his rhythm, he'll likely play; an Indy moneyline win is also on the table,
PHX-LAC; LAC - UNDER 97.5. Phoenix can definitely pull this off if they lock down on defense. Given that Steve Nash is dealing with some knee issues—which might hamper their offensive flow—I think their defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Of course, everything hinges on how Chris Paul enters the game; his health, along with Nash's stability, is absolutely vital for a Phoenix victory.
Good luck to everyone. Milwaukee really wiped me out yesterday.

Monroe Over 15.5
It’s a lock in my book. Detroit is coming away with this one, especially since Minnesota is playing shorthanded—they're missing key pieces, specifically in the paint. Monroe is going to feast in the post and dominate the boards without any issues.

Scola Over 16.6
I fully expect him to clear the 16-point mark; I’m eyeing something closer to 18 or 19 buckets. New Orleans is dealing with some major absences as well.

Indiana vs. Milwaukee (Moneyline) 1
Detroit vs. Minnesota (Moneyline) 1
Miami vs. Chicago (Moneyline) 1
New Orleans vs. Houston (Moneyline) 2

Total odds are sitting around 20.00

Good luck to everyone riding this wave... 🙂

Going under 12.5 today... honestly don't see anyone else worth betting on besides Paul. He’s just way more explosive right now, and that's not even counting the injury ☕

What’s the move on Dragić under 18.5? Seems like a massive spread for him, doesn't it? Like, is he really expected to hit that number?

In my view, some people lean far too heavily on statistical trends; while those numbers certainly carry weight, they don't tell the whole story. Take the matchup between the Charlotte Hornets and the Houston Rockets, for instance. I’m calling a comfortable road victory for the visitors—expect them to win by 9 points or more—and getting that at +260 odds feels like a solid play to me.

Didn't want to mess around with any over/unders, so I just stuck to the moneyline odds:
Indiana - Milwaukee 1
They're on a massive run right now. Even though the Bucks are fighting for a Play-In spot, I'm feeling Indiana for the win here.

New Orleans - Houston
The Pelicans have nothing to lose, meanwhile Houston is locked in this tight battle with the Jazz and the Suns.

Miami - Bulls
Hopefully Rose doesn't show up tonight. Honestly, those cheapskates could've at least bumped the odds up from 1.50.

Suns - Clippers
The odds looked tasty, so I took them.

Fingers crossed tonight goes as well as last night did.😍

K.C Johnson ‏ @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Derrick Rose is playing against the Heat. #Bulls

4m K.C Johnson ‏ @KCJHoop Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Luol Deng is playing against the Heat. #Bulls

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