NBA Betting: Vol. 2

wiredcanyon39 Active MemberOP

74 messages
joined Jul 2020

#1 · Apr 9, 2012

Running low on time, so here's a quick one 🙂

DK Griffin - Lee 2 1.85
Memphis - LA Clippers 1 1.55
@2.8675

Griffin’s going up against a Memphis squad that is absolutely crushing it at home; they’ve got one of the stingiest interior defenses I've seen lately, so I’m pretty sure they'll keep Griffin's scoring in check. If they can just lock down Paul, they should cruise to a win without much trouble. Memphis is riding a serious wave right now, whereas the Clippers have been looking pretty rough on the road. As for Lee, he's basically become the main scoring option for Golden State since Ellis left and Curry’s sidelined, and now they’re facing the Nuggets, who—to be fair—have one of the softer defenses in the league.

Got two more singles for you guys tonight

Utah Jazz - San Antonio Spurs under 209.5 1.85

So, yesterday’s game went way over, but honestly? I don't see a repeat performance like that. Yesterday was a total blowout in Salt Lake City, but I suspect things will stay tighter this time around because Utah plays every single game like it's a playoff matchup. Plus, both teams are on the back end of a back-to-back, which usually means legs are heavy and favors the under.

Pau Gasol over 17.5 1.85

Everyone else has already covered this, but yeah, he hit the over whenever Kobe was on the floor. Tonight, assuming he actually suits up, he might take a few fewer shots given his injury situation, but if he doesn't play at all, then betting the over would just be straight-up insanity.

wiredcanyon39 Active MemberOP

74 messages
joined Jul 2020

#2 · Apr 9, 2012

Walter Reed3 said:What do you guys think about whether A. Bryant is gonna go over 18.5 points tonight for the Lakers? Last time he cleared that, it was because Kobe wasn't on the court, and I haven't heard anything official about whether Kobe is actually good to go for this one. Does anyone have any intel on if Kobe's playing tonight? Let me know, thanks.

Honestly, it's still a total toss-up, nobody knows yet.

Walter Reed3 Member

16 messages
joined Apr 2012

#3 · Apr 9, 2012

Will we have an answer by 1:00 AM tonight? Is there a specific site where I can check the results? Thanks for any info.🙂

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#4 · Apr 9, 2012

Thank God I missed the kickoff last night.🤣 James should take the heat for going only 1-for-5 from deep.😁

Here's what's on the menu for today:
Taking Utah and San Antonio under 209.5.
The Spurs blew them out last night—they jumped out to a lead so early that the rest of the game was basically just an exhibition. I’m expecting a much more physical battle today when the Jazz are at home. They're still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot, so they absolutely have to pull this one off.

Indiana-Toronto under 189.5
Indiana has been dealing with a brutal schedule lately—they’ve been grinding through back-to-back stretches and that fatigue is definitely going to catch up to them. I don't see them hitting many shots tonight. On the flip side, their defense is legit; they play tough at home and can shut down just about any team, keeping the scoring low. They’ve got real size up top too, and if they manage to neutralize Siakam, even a team like Toronto is going to have a hard time finding any rhythm. Maybe even... Take Toronto under 89.5.

Gasol over 17.5—let's go.
The Lakers will likely be without Kobe tonight—so everything’s going to have to run through Pau and Bynum. Gasol has already cleared that 4-point spread against both of them this season (barely, mostly just due to some terrible shooting)—so I think if they hit a few more shots today, he should be able to do it again. Plus, the Hornets aren't exactly known for protecting the paint.

Blake Griffin under 21.5.
Memphis has been absolutely tearing through teams like Miami, Dallas, and OKC with that defense—just total destruction. Honestly, this incredible run they’re on lately? It’s built entirely on that elite defensive grit. I’m expecting them to show up and lock things down just the same tonight. The Clippers are right there breathing down their necks for that 3rd or 4th seed in the West, too.
Griffin’s dropped 20 twice in his last two matchups—and he’s been shooting lights out, too. Honestly? I think the Grizzlies' interior defense can shut him down way more than that.

Kevin Love over 27.5—take it.
Minnesota is paying the price for their injury bug—they haven't seen a win in several games now. On the flip side, Phoenix is fighting tooth and nail for a Play-In spot, so every single game is massive for them. The Suns are scoring plenty lately, whether they're at home or on the road, and if this turns into a high-scoring affair, the Wolves should be able to clear 100. Looking back at the last two matchups—both played in Phoenix—Love put up 30 and 23 (even if his shooting was absolutely pathetic). Unless this turns into a total blowout—which I highly doubt—he should be putting up big numbers again tonight.

Walter Reed3 said:What do you guys think—is A. Bynum going over 18.5 tonight?

Where the hell is the margin at 18.5?😲 DraftKings has the line at 20.5, and from what I can see, most of our local bettors don't even have players from that game on their rosters.🤷 Probably because Bryant’s a total question mark—so these guys are too chicken to take the risk.

wiredcanyon39 Active MemberOP

74 messages
joined Jul 2020

#5 · Apr 9, 2012

Walter Reed3 said:Will we actually know by 1:00 AM tonight? Is there somewhere I can check? Thanks for the help!🙂

http://www.donbest.com/nba/injuries/

Walter Reed3 Member

16 messages
joined Apr 2012

#6 · Apr 9, 2012

Anyone have four fixes? Odds don't matter—even a 1.01 would work. Looking to use some cash at DraftKings. Needs a 21.5 margin but at least 5 legs minimum.

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#7 · Apr 9, 2012

Walter Reed3 said:Anyone got a 4-fold fix? I don't care about the odds—even 1.01 works. Looking for something at a local sportsbook near Kevin's place. Margin is 21.5%, looking for at least 5 legs.

You think it's an injury or something?🤷
It’s not an accident—don't sweat it. Especially when they start putting conditions on how many legs you need to play.

Walter Reed3 Member

16 messages
joined Apr 2012

#8 · Apr 9, 2012

I'm not sure if there's an injury involved here, but at places like William Hill, DraftKings, or BetMGM, the line is sitting at 27.5 or 28.5. Meanwhile, a local spot like Derby Sportsbook has it at 21.5, though I should point out that Derby isn't exactly known for being the most reliable book in town.

analoghound21 Newcomer

5 messages
joined Jan 2024

#9 · Apr 9, 2012

Nicholas Chase34 said:Monroe under 15.5 @ Favorite
(against Howard, away game, scored 4, 7, and 10 against him in the last three outings)

Man, I grabbed him on my parlay under 14.5...fingers crossed we both hit 🙂

Besides him, I also took P. Gasol over 17.5 and Griffin under 21.5

@6.33...since this is my first ticket in over a month, the stakes aren't huge, but hey, it’d be nice to win something for once...😛

Walter Reed3 said:What do you guys think? Will A. Bynum go over 18.5 tonight (LAL)? He went over last time because Kobe wasn't playing. I haven't heard anything about whether Kobe is ready tonight—anyone got intel on if he's actually suited up?

I went with Gasol over 17.5. Seems like a safer bet than that skinny, high-strung guy 🤷 (last game he dropped 30 on the Suns, then put up just over 21 against the Hornets at the Staples Center about ten days ago even with Kobe taking 20 shots; plus back in mid-March during an away game, he hit exactly 18 with another 20+ looks from Kobe). I'm thinking Pau should get about 20 shots tonight, which, combined with some free throws, should be plenty to clear this line 🤷

As for Bryant, honestly, I highly doubt we'll see him out there tonight.

The Lakers trainer, Gary Vitti, mentioned on Saturday that there isn't a set timeline for Kobe Bryant's return from that shin injury.
Rest is the only way to fix what Kobe's dealing with—a bruised area is irritating the tendon sheath in his shin, making the tendon grind and grate, which is obviously painful. No need to freak out over the "no timetable" news, though; there's zero context, and if anyone is going to play through pain in the middle of a playoff push, it's Kobe.

...given where we are in the season, I really don't see them risking him tonight against the Hornets, especially since they already beat them twice this year. He didn't play against the Suns either, and he never liked those matchups anyway. Plus, they've got San Antonio coming up, then Denver, then Dallas, then San Antonio again. Honestly, this looks like the perfect window for them to just let him rest while they can 🤷)

Lawrence Castillo76 Newcomer

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joined Apr 2022

#10 · Apr 9, 2012

Man, I really let myself down betting on the Detroit Pistons last night. They played absolutely terrible.

stormyseal9 Member

20 messages
joined Oct 2011

#11 · Apr 9, 2012

Jerry Grant51 said:Apr 3 ORL W 102-95 1 33:41 9 11 81.8 0 0 N/A 4 8 50.0 4 7 11 3 2 1 1 3 22 ???

This is what I was getting at regarding

Monroe under 15.5 points @ the Favorite—because from what I can see here, he dropped 22 on Orlando!

If my memory serves me right, neither Howard nor his buddies Nelson and Anderson were even in the lineup for that game, so maybe play was actually thinking about those matchups against Howard where Monroe usually struggles big time🤷 instead of this one😉.

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#12 · Apr 9, 2012

Walter Reed3 said:I don't know, man—could be an injury issue. All the major spots like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM have it at 27.5 or 28.5, but some local dive shop has it at 21.5. Gotta mention that the local place is definitely a bottom-tier book.

Look, mistakes happen in the lines—that’s nothing new. It’d be crazy if they accidentally put a 1 instead of a 7, but it's weird that they're forcing us to play this line across five different parlays. Back when I used to bet heavily on soccer, you'd only see stuff like this if a team was decimated by injuries or if the line became too public. Something smells fishy here... And yeah, I wanted the over too.

analoghound21 said:Personally, I took the under 14.5 at my usual spot... hoping we both hit.🙂

Besides that, I also grabbed Pau Gasol over 17.5 and Griffin under 21.5

@6,33...since this is my first ticket in over a month, the stake isn't huge, but it would be nice to win.😛

I'm leaning towards Griffin and Pau as well. Not sure about Monroe though—he's unpredictable, just like Orlando. 🤣
My pick was Love, but now this guy is making me rethink everything with this 21.5 line plus those five parlays.
Thinking about taking the under on Indiana-Toronto, especially if Bargnani sits out. Or maybe even the Utah-San Antonio under.

Walter Reed3 Member

16 messages
joined Apr 2012

#13 · Apr 9, 2012

Where on earth are they getting an 18.5 line?😲 At DraftKings, it’s sitting at 20.5, and from what I can see, most of our local bettors don't even have players from this game listed in their sportsbook options.🤷 Probably because Bryant is such a question mark right now that nobody wants to take the risk.

A. Bynum (LA Lakers) (18.5), margin at William Hill

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#14 · Apr 9, 2012

Walter Reed3 said:A. Bynum (LA Lakers) (18.5), spread at DraftKings

That means—in the States—we’re looking at 19.5 or 20.5. Some places don't even have it listed.
Just take it. Hopefully, he won't lose his mind again...😂

graniteotter6 Member

49 messages
joined Jan 2016

#15 · Apr 9, 2012

A word of advice:
Don't get too hung up on the under in Utah. SAS plays at a pace that tends to break opponents pretty quickly; they're riding a 12-game win streak, and the matchup in Utah seems to suit them perfectly, so I'd lean toward the over there. Personally, I wouldn't mess around with an under if I were you. It's probably best to just leave it alone.
Mil-OKC under 210 sounds like a winner to me. 😍
Let's slow down a bit; we still need to see if any news drops regarding players sitting out.
Wade really screwed me over last night because I had to head out of the house around 6:00 to place my bets. I had Miami over 101, which I thought would be an easy one to clear.

analoghound21 Newcomer

5 messages
joined Jan 2024

#16 · Apr 9, 2012

I’ve got a feeling the Hornets might actually pull an upset tonight. They’re definitely going to be playing with a massive chip on their shoulder against a squad that’s already beaten them twice this season—you know, the same guys who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. 🤷

So, maybe something like New Orleans (+5.5 spread) or even the Under on the Lakers game. I’d guess our margin at DraftKings would probably sit around 96.5—though honestly, I could see it hitting 97.5 if I’m being generous... 🤣 I don't know, I'm just guessing here... Both matchups earlier this season were absolute grinders (88:85 and 93:93), and I really think those guys are capable of locking down and keeping the Lakers right under that projected total 😁, regardless of how they handled that rough patch against the Suns recently.

Edit: Yeah, I’m with the guy above regarding the Utah-San Antonio line and that other one too. 🙂

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#17 · Apr 9, 2012

graniteotter6 said:A word from the wise:
Stop obsessing over the under in Utah. SAS plays at a pace that absolutely crushes opponents—they're on a 12-game win streak and they match up perfectly against Utah, so I’m seeing another over here. Personally, I wouldn't touch the under if I were you. Just leave it alone.
I’m taking the under on OKC vs. Mil—under 210. Seems like a solid play to me. 😍
Hold on—we haven't even seen the reports on those non-players hit the wire yet.
Wade totally screwed me over last night—had to head out around 6:00 PM just to get my bet placed. I had Mia over 101 lined up, which should have been a total lock with him.

I know what's up—and honestly, they'll probably try to pin one of these on me.😁
My first instinct for an under is that Indiana vs. Toronto game. What do you guys think—anyone with me on that? Word is Bargnani is sitting this one out.
The spread for Milwaukee vs. OKC feels way too wide. The Bucks have been absolute garbage on defense lately—and Westbrook hasn't exactly been playing his best ball either—so I wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma pushes back hard today. Personally, I’m taking the Bucks under. 🤷 Ilyasova isn't about to let Ibaki push her around. 🙂

Arthur Ross5 Newcomer

4 messages
joined Mar 2012

#18 · Apr 9, 2012

Regarding the hat trick, I see A. Afllalo listed at 17.5. I initially assumed this might be a clerical error in the data, but perhaps my understanding of these metrics is slightly off. If anyone here is more well-versed in these specific statistics, I would truly appreciate a brief explanation to clear things up for me... thank you.

analoghound21 Newcomer

5 messages
joined Jan 2024

#19 · Apr 9, 2012

Dana Baker2 said:I’m leaning towards grabbing Griffin and Pau too. But Monroe? Man, I don't know. That guy is a total wildcard, kind of like how Orlando plays. 🤣
My initial pick was Love, but now my buddy is totally rubbing it in my face with this 21.5 plus five parlays thing.
Thinking about taking the under on Indiana-Toronto, especially if Bargnani stays sidelined. Or maybe even the under on Utah-San Antonio.

I'm with you on Orlando—they're a complete mess right now. 🤣

That said, Detroit has absolutely wrecked them over the last three games (both this season), so I’ve got this gut feeling they’re going to come out swinging today just to wash away that embarrassment; basically, expect Superman to put in some serious extra effort.

There hasn't been a single word floating around about K-Love's injury, either. You'd think something would have leaked by now. 🤷
If I had the chance, I’d jump on that 21.5 over in a heartbeat, but that 27.5 you're talking about... yeah, that's making me pause and think twice. 😁 Still, for stormyseal9's system, I'd take it any day. 🤷

Maybe just go with the Toronto under. 🤷

Dana Baker2 Newcomer

1 message
joined Apr 2011

#20 · Apr 9, 2012

Arthur Ross5 said:Afflalo scored a hat trick at 17.5 odds—honestly thought it was a mistake. If anyone actually knows their stuff here, please explain what happened... thanks.

What do you mean "mistake"? Afflalo’s been putting up solid numbers lately.

NBA Betting: Vol. 2

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