NBA Finals Betting: Part 2

Arthur Hayes6 said:The NBA drives me crazy. When you bet on someone to go over, they couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat, but the moment you take them under, suddenly everything they touch turns to gold.. :/

Oh yeah, 😲😲😲😲😲

Tell me about it 😉

Hehe, welcome to the club. I deal with the exact same thing whenever I'm playing team totals, whether it's over or under.

Nice comeback from the Spurs. Now I'm just sitting here waiting for the Lakers to flip it, hoping the Bucks hold onto their lead, seeing Boston pull a win, and praying we beat that cursed Miami team yesterday—then maybe I'll actually have enough left for rent. 🥳

Does anyone have a decent stream for the Chicago Bulls-Miami Heat game?

http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/1...iami-heat.html

Man, the Lakers are at it again. Kobe is headed for another blowout. 🤦 Can I actually get a single analysis right for once? 🤣

It’s been impossible to hit anything for the last three or four days. I really should take a break tomorrow and just relax for a bit.

After a string of relatively rough days, everything seems to be falling apart at once today: Philly, Danny Granger, Monta Ellis, and even Miami is playing without their key guy.
Starting tomorrow, I suppose I'll just counter every single logical analysis out there, because honestly, what else is there to do? 🤷

I think there are about five games tomorrow. I'll probably chill out and just throw some tiny amount of money on something for the hell of it. Then, later on, I'll actually put some effort in when the real money is on the line. 😁

Keith Moore21 said:Granger under 18.5

Just a pure statistical play here... Granger against Philly usually stays under this line—I mean, Philly's defensive unit is actually solid, especially at the SF spot where they give up way less than that. And honestly, the main reason is just crazy Andre Iguodala; he's easily one of the best defenders in the league...
I'm pairing it with my take on Miami, so let's say Miami +9.5...

edit: wow, literally hasn't even been a minute since the odds shifted, and it's already down to 1.7🙂

Man, I'll be damned, he dropped 20... could he have missed just one more shot? Seriously?🙂

01:00, Steve Nash(Phoenix Suns) - Chris Kaman(New Orleans), tip: 2 @ 1,75 SS

Let's kick things off with our first matchup, looking at Steve Nash. As the veteran playmaker for the Phoenix Suns, he’s heading out to Los Angeles to face off against the Clippers, where he'll be going head-to-head with one of the elite floor generals in the league, Chris Paul. Now, Paul is an absolute beast on the defensive end, usually holding his matchups to around a 35.7% shooting clip. While Nash has put up some decent numbers lately, those performances mostly came against teams with pretty shaky defenses; when he runs into squads that actually know how to lock in on defense, he tends to get stifled. If you look back at when he played the Clippers on March 2nd, he was held to just 6 points while shooting 1-4 from the field. At the end of the day, scoring isn't really the main mission for a guy like Nash—his whole vibe is about facilitating and setting others up rather than hunting for his own shot. He rarely goes on high-volume shooting tear, which is why he frequently lands on the under. Plus, his recent history against CP3 hasn't been great; in their last five meetings, he hasn't even come close to hitting the line, posting totals of 12, 10, 8, 3, and 6. Since he's playing on the road against a defender as lockdown as Paul, I'm leaning towards Nash staying under his average here. Our second duel features Chris Kaman, who's been in pretty solid form lately, even if it's a little hit-or-miss since he struggles to string together several stellar games in a row. That said, today's opponent should be the perfect setup for him to really cook. He had a fantastic outing last night against the Lakers—who, by the way, boast one of the toughest interior defenses in the league—dropping 21 points. Since the Hornets are feeling pretty thin at the center position right now, Kaman has become their go-to offensive weapon down low, especially with Kevin Landry, Emeka Okafor, and Smith all sidelined with injuries. He hasn't faced Washington yet this season, but back when he was rocking a Clippers jersey, he absolutely tore it up against them. In his last three matchups against Washington as a Clipper, he dropped 19, 14, and 28 points while shooting a scorching 67.5%. Given that Washington sits right at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to protecting the paint (ranking 29th), I think when you weigh everything up, Kaman is the one who walks away with the win in this matchup.

Main Ticket

Wall under 18.5 at 1.85
-The same logic applies here as it did the last few days, right? He’s such an ultra-homegrown type player who rarely ever hits the over when they're on the road because he just doesn't take enough shots offshore
Terry over 15.5 at 1.85
-Since I'm expecting Dirk Nowitzki to see fewer minutes today, Terry might really step up and carry the load, plus he's averaged about 21 points in their last three matchups
Paul Millsap over 15.5 at 1.85
-In the two head-to-head games we've seen so far, he's been dropping over 25 on average, especially since he's the biggest ball hog when Richard Jefferson is out there
Kevin Durant over 27.5 at 1.85
-Man, this guy plays way better on the road than at home and usually grabs around 22 shots; looking at his career, he's averaging 32.2 points over 12 games, and after that insane performance where he dropped 51, how on earth could anyone expect them to limit him below this line today?
Chris Paul over 19.5 at 1.85
-After those two mediocre outings, it's high time he shows everyone what he's actually capable of, considering he's been averaging 22 points over his last 10 games

Favorite Bet☕

Russell Westbrook over 23.5 at 1.85
-It's basically the same story as Durant here—he's a massive volume shooter and he absolutely shredded them with 40 points in their last matchup
Shawn Marion over 11.5 at 1.85
-6.5/LAC-Phoenix 2 at 1.85
-Phoenix is rolling right now with 7 wins in their last 10, and when you look at the head-to-head history, they totally dominate; they've taken the last five, so honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if they just win the whole thing, let alone cover the spread
117.5/Wisconsin-Montana over 1.85
122.5/Vanderbilt-Harvard over 1.85
154.5/Indiana-New Mexico ST under 1.85 HL😉

Nicholas Chase34 said:01:00, Steve Nash (Phoenix Suns) vs. Chris Kaman (New Orleans), pick: 2 @ 1.75 SS

Let's kick things off with our first matchup, Steve Nash. The Phoenix Suns floor general is definitely in the twilight of his career, heading out to face the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s going up against one of the premier defenders in the league, Chris Paul. Paul is a defensive beast and usually holds matchups down to about 35.7% shooting. Nash has looked decent lately, but that's mostly because he's been facing subpar defenses; teams that actually know how to lock in have shut him down pretty effectively. When he faced the Clippers back on March 2nd, he struggled big time, putting up just 6 points on 1-4 FG and 3-3 FT. At the end of the day, scoring isn't Nash's main job—he's a playmaker through and through, focused on setting others up rather than hunting his own shot. He rarely hunts volume, which is why he ends up under his line so often. Looking at his last five meetings with CP3, he hasn't even come close to hitting the over (12, 10, 8, 3, 6). Since he’s on the road and facing a lockdown defender, I'm leaning toward Nash staying under his average here. Our second duel is Chris Kaman, who's been in decent, if slightly inconsistent, form. He struggles to string together consecutive monster games, but tonight's opponent should be perfect for him to find his rhythm. He put up a massive 21 points last night against the Lakers, who boast one of the best interior defenses in the league. With the Hornets being so thin at center right now—especially since Kevin Landry, Emeka Okafor, and Smith are all sidelined—Kaman is essentially their primary offensive option inside. He hasn't played Washington this season, but back when he was rocking a Clippers jersey, he absolutely tore them apart. In his last three outings against Washington as a Clipper, he dropped 19, 14, and 28 points while shooting a blistering 67.5%. Washington is basically bottom-tier when it comes to protecting the paint (#29). Taking everything into account, I think Kaman takes this matchup.

Damn, what an analysis.🙏 🙏 🙏

Come on, drop 2 or 3 more picks! 👍

Personally, I'd take Nash under 13.5 on this one.

EDIT: Kaman's odds just dropped to 1.55.

Just dropping a quick one today without any deep dive or analysis.

More

less

more

than the matchup total

New Orleans -3.5

Dallas -13.5

Oklahoma

Total: 63.3

Nicholas Chase34 said:01:00, Steve Nash (Phoenix Suns) vs. Chris Kaman (New Orleans), pick: 2 @ 1.75 SS

Chris Kaman has played 4 minutes, scored 4 points, shooting 2/2... I suppose Nicholas Chase34 🙏 is providing the analysis here.

EDIT: Actually, he’s at 6/6 and 12 points; I might just circle that one, honestly, who cares at this point.

Nicholas Chase34 said:01:00, Steve Nash (Phoenix Suns) - Chris Kaman (New Orleans), pick: 2 @ 1.75 SS

Let's kick things off with our first matchup, Steve Nash. As the floor general for the Phoenix Suns, Nash is definitely in the twilight of his career, heading out to face the Los Angeles Clippers. He's up against one of the premier defenders in the league, Chris Paul. Paul is a beast defensively and usually keeps guys hovering around a 35.7% shooting clip. Nash has looked decent lately, but mostly against teams with weak defenses; when he runs into actual defensive units, they shut him down pretty effectively. Back on March 2nd against the Clippers, Nash only managed 6 points on 1-4 FG and 3-3 FT. At the end of the day, scoring isn't Nash's primary job—he's a playmaker meant to facilitate and set others up rather than hunt his own shot. He rarely hunts volume, which is why he lands under his totals so often. Looking at his last five matchups against CP3, he hasn't cracked the line once (12, 10, 8, 3, 6). Given he’s on the road and facing a lockdown defender, I think Nash stays under his average here. The second duel features Chris Kaman, who's been in decent, albeit slightly inconsistent, form. He struggles to string together big performances, but tonight's opponent should be perfect for him to thrive. He put up 21 points last night against the Lakers, who boast one of the best interior defenses in the league. Since the Hornets are pretty thin at center right now—with Kevin Landry, Emeka Okafor, and Smith all sidelined—Kaman is basically their go-to guy inside. He hasn't faced Washington this season, but back when he was wearing a Clippers jersey, he tore them apart. In his last three games against Washington as a Clipper, he dropped 19, 14, and 28 points while shooting a blistering 67.5%. Washington is sitting near the bottom of the league regarding center defense (#29). When you crunch the numbers, I think Kaman takes this one.

Solid breakdown, just two quick thoughts.

First off, might be better to try a double bet.

Nash under 13.5
Kaman over 15.5 @ 3.42—taking a little risk, but that price is too good to pass up.

Second, Patrick Mcgee is out, so they're definitely thin in the paint tonight. I'm with you there; he's already got 4 points, and if he keeps this pace up, we could be looking at a 20-25 point night.

And now we're already at 10

Chris Kaman is already at 12.
Wall tonight.

Chris Kaman dropped 20, while Steve Nash barely even saw any action.🙂🙂🙂

Good evening from the NBA—tough break, I let tennis ruin my parlay by missing just one single game 🙂

03:30, Golden State - Milwaukee, pick: Monta Ellis under 20.5 points @ 1.85 SS

The Bucks just added some serious firepower to their roster, picking up sharpshooting guard Monta Ellis in a trade from Golden State (tonight's opponent) in a trade... Monta Ellis was actually the leading scorer for Golden State, averaging about 21.9 PPG. With him joining the mix, Milwaukee is going to have two guys who absolutely love to let it fly, which makes for a super explosive backcourt. There’s a good chance Ellis makes his debut for Milwaukee tonight against his old squad, and I'm really looking forward to seeing him put on a total show for the fans. Since Ellis is stepping in, Jennings should see a dip in his shot attempts, which naturally means fewer points per game. This season, Jennings has been averaging 19.1 PPG while taking around 17 shots per game. Honestly, Milwaukee has plenty of offensive weapons right now, especially with guys like Kyle Dunleavy, Chris Gooden, and others getting more active lately...
Jennings has been a bit hit-or-miss lately, having one great game followed immediately by a total slump. Facing off against the Bucks tonight, Golden State actually boasts one of the best defenses against point guards, statistically ranking in their top three. Part of the reason is that Golden State is elite at defending the pick-and-roll—especially when it comes to the ball handler, which is where Jennings gets about a third of his shots—and they are great at stopping transition plays, something Jennings relies on heavily because he’s so quick. He’ll be matched up against Nate Robinson, who isn't exactly a lockdown defender, but for a PG like Jennings, I think it'll work out okay since he can use his speed to create space. All things considered, I expect Monta to have a solid outing to honor the club he's been with since 2005, but that leaves Jennings with fewer looks, making it very likely he stays under his total. ☕

Given the recent flurry of trades and coaching changes, here are my picks for tonight:

Wall 18.5 - over
Washington lost their 2nd and 3rd options, but they did bring in Nen. Wall has full control of the team now, and he already dropped 26 points in his first game following the trade (which was actually a win). While Wall’s numbers tend to dip when playing away from home, given the current circumstances, he should be able to clear this margin quite easily.

Carmelo Anthony 21.5 - over
So, we have a coaching change, largely driven by the fact that Anthony wasn't feeling D'Antoni's system. The first game was a blowout, but today Melo might once again take his usual volume of shots and push past 30. Even Stoudemire mentioned that Carmelo needs to step up and prove he's the leader. In his language, that means taking about 30 shots per game.

Danny Granger 18.5 - over
Following up on that previous point, everyone knows Carmelo is a defensive liability who can't guard his own position. In a direct matchup, Granger could easily reach 25+ points because he'll find plenty of easy looks that he "just" needs to sink.

Andrew Bynum 17.5 - over
The man has been in incredible form throughout March. In eight games played, he only failed to hit this line once, and in his last four outings, he's been hovering near 30. Specifically, against Minnesota, he's put up 20-10 in three games this season.