If you looked at how Phoenix and Houston played last season, you might never guess they’d be such a dream for anyone betting the under this year. But things have shifted big time, and both teams are currently crushing the under with over a 60% success rate [Houston 10-16 (61.5%), Phoenix 8-17 (68%)]. These two squads have already faced off once this season, and they stayed way below the margin, finishing 99-81 (180 total). There are a few specific trends making me feel really good about this pick:
The under has hit 5-1 in the Rockets' last 6 games when they're playing on zero days of rest.
The under is also 4-1 in the Rockets' last 5 games overall.
And looking at the Suns, the under has been 5-1 in their last 6 outings following a game where they scored 100+ points. Since their first matchup ended up being a massive under—missing the mark by a whopping 20 points—I’ve gotta double down on the under again because that line just feels way too high, easily by at least 5 points.
Phoenix vs Houston under 200.5 @ 1.85 DraftKings
Kevin Durant is heading out to face Sacramento, and honestly, he should have a field day there since the Kings' perimeter defense is pretty much a disaster zone—easily sitting among the bottom three defenses in the league. Sacramento loves to run and play at a fast pace, similar to how Oklahoma City plays, which is a style that definitely suits Kevin Durant's game. He's coming into this one on fire, averaging 33 points over his last two matchups (hitting exactly 33 against both the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers). Last season, he was dropping 24, 35, 17, and 32 points against Sacramento; his average could have been even higher, but that one 17-point game led to him getting benched in the fourth quarter, dragging his average down to 27. For tonight, the total point line is set quite high at 210.5 because everyone expects a shootout, and I think that total will go over, just like Kevin Durant will likely go over his own line.
Kevin Durant over 28.5 @ 1.926 Pinnacle
Good luck everyone! ☕