21.5/Griffin (Cleveland - LA Clippers) over @ 1.85
So, with Billups sidelined by an injury that’ll probably keep him off the hardwood for the rest of the season, there's going to be a massive void in the rotation, which basically means more shots are up for grabs for everyone else on the roster.
Mo Williams has been absolutely killing it coming off the bench lately, so he's the guy stepping up to handle that shooting load in Billups' absence. Now, even though Griffin might not look like he's totally dominating when he's on the road, if you actually look at his stats, he’s playing just as well away from home as he does in his own gym, averaging about 21.2 points per game—and he's even grabbing an extra shot attempt on average when traveling. Tonight's matchup puts him right up against Antawn Jamison, who hasn't really been locking anyone down defensively lately, especially since the Cavaliers are currently sitting near the bottom of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing forwards (averaging 23.3 points on 50.5% shooting). I think Griffin is going to feast on that defensive weakness, especially considering how tired a veteran like Jamison might be on this back-to-back stretch, and given Griffin's solid shooting percentages and how he can exploit poor free throw shooting, I'm feeling really good about the over here.
16.5/Wall (Washington - NY Knicks) over @ 1.7
Wall is rocking at home tonight against a Knicks squad whose transition defense is basically non-existent. Given Wall's aggressive style and how much he loves driving hard to the rim for those easy layups, I don't see him missing out on a +20 point performance.
23.5/Aldridge (Portland - Houston) over @ 1.85
Honestly, he's easily one of the top power forwards in the league this year, right up there with guys like Kevin Love. Aldridge has been so incredibly consistent lately that it’d be a total robbery if he didn't make the All-Star squad.
I actually think his numbers might climb even higher in the coming days because, looking back at last season, he always seemed to catch fire right before the All-Star break with those massive 30 and 40-point outbursts. In his last three home games, he’s been averaging a cool 32 points while shooting 60% from the field. Tonight's matchup isn't exactly a defensive masterclass either, especially with Luis Scola playing, and since the Rockets haven't been all that stout in the paint, LaMarcus should find plenty of opportunities to feast. Plus, having that electric crowd at the Rose Garden behind him is definitely going to give him that extra boost needed to hit the over.
Long shots:
Gay over 19.5
Martin over 20.5