NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Arthur Hill2 said:I looked at the numbers—Philly allows nearly 19 points at the PF position, and Boozer averages 20 against them. With Hamilton and Deng out, the reality is that Rose and Boozer are basically the only options left. Rose will likely double down in the fourth quarter—just like Carlos did last time when he went over, doubling or even tripling 😬 while Boozer is left out there like a ghost.

I agree with the rest of this, but be careful with those stats from Hoops. I never use them—maybe I should, but I prefer sticking to my own two or three pages for analysis—but I recall Nicholas Chase34 mentioning once that those stats include bench scoring, not just starters.😉

Which means Gibson’s points count toward that total too.

graniteotter6 said:Cheers, James Taylor3. :top :
I don't post here much—mostly because I don't have any inside info (and frankly, I can't be bothered clicking around to figure out who's playing and who isn't), nor am I as detailed as some of you.
Mostly I just read, playing strictly on my gut feeling rather than copying others.
Granger is at 18.5 points. I have a feeling he hits exactly 18. Since they never put Young in the rotation... 🙄 They're playing the Bulls.
Why the skepticism regarding OKC? It shouldn't be a question; based on what I've seen, Dallas is acting like Boston this year—taking easy wins and throwing away the big ones.🤷
I'm hoping Griffin drops another 20 or 21.

Post more often; your insight has always been valued here. 👍
As for Granger, I actually have a feeling his shooting will be abysmal—something like 4-for-15. 😁
Stinky American (mods, no offense intended, I'm referring to a comment Granger made himself: http://nbacro.com/nba/indiana-pacers...-magaraca-8708)

Keith Moore21 said:I'll take them incompetent lot :503
I watched most of the game and I can't believe the Nets, playing with only two real threats, messed up that badly and almost lost... okay, one is D-Will (arguably the best playmaker after Paul), but Morrow... man, what the hell.🤷

What’s on the slate today? If I hit a counter-bet, someone’s going to lose big. :rofl :

Not sure—might skip it entirely. I haven't had much time to dig into the stats, and I've got indoor soccer later. 😁

graniteotter6 said:Last game, all three went under. You laid out the logic nicely, though LeBron looking for the under seems like the safest bet for a while.

Even this guy is copying Granger’s over based on "our" reasoning—it’s almost too easy. s
Now you're actually tempting me to take the under just to see who ends up face-palming more—me or you. :D
Rose over? Hmm. Interesting. But did it occur to anyone that once Beasley returns, Love might actually take fewer shots? 🤷 He cleared 30 points just the other night.

That’s exactly my point. 👍

Beasley is a ball hog, and Rubio hasn't been stingy with possessions since he entered the NBA—so Love’s average could easily drop by two or three buckets. 🤷

K. Martin over 21.5 (1.85)
Came back the day before yesterday after sitting out two games with some injury nonsense—immediately dropped 29 on the Timberwolves. This season, the Rockets have faced the Spurs three times already, where he’s averaging 22.7 points (25/18/25). He's a killer shooter, so this line shouldn't be an issue.

C. Paul over 17.5 (1.85)
CP3 is rolling right now. Scored 18, 25, and 26 in his last three outings. Plus, the Jazz's main defensive guy, Bell, is out—so everything is lined up for the over.😁

+ D-Will over 21.5 (with Brooks and Stevenson already banged up, and Morrow twisting his ankle yesterday—not sure if he'll even be 100% tonight) + Westbrook over 21.5 + Howard over 21.5 (dropped 28 on the Wizards just a month ago)

For a parlay attempt:
DeRozan over 15.5 (this is more of a hunch than anything else—he loves taking shots against Boston, and I've got a feeling he might find his rhythm tonight) + Jennings over 20.5 + Duncan over 13.5 (looks like he's finding his form again, and Scola likes it when they score through him)

Nicholas Chase34 said:👍

I’ve also been chewing on Jennings' over 20.5 against Miami. He's got a game coming up, and looking back at his last one, he managed to clear the margin (23 pts) despite a pretty abysmal shooting percentage of 25% (5-20 FG), mostly thanks to getting to the charity stripe (12-13 FT).

Now, Jennings is playing at home. He tends to feed off the crowd there, averaging a solid 21.5 PPG, and out of his eight games this season, he's only fallen under that line twice in front of his own fans. 🤷☕

It’s wild how much our heads are in the same place. 🙂 I almost always take the over on Jennings when he’s rocking the home jersey, especially today against Miami. That said, I still have D-Will and Parker ranked slightly higher than him for today, even if I’ll definitely throw Brandon onto a parlay. 🙂 Miami is a tough squad, and they have one of the worst defenses against playmakers, so he should easily grab 15-20 shots—assuming he doesn't just absolutely demolish the Heat... though I guess that's unlikely.

James Taylor3 said:I’m totally on board with what everyone else is saying, but just a heads-up on those Hoopstat numbers you're pulling. I never really dive into that specific site—maybe I should, honestly, but I usually just stick to my trusty little collection of two or three sites to run my analysis—but if I remember correctly, Nicholas Chase34 mentioned once that those stats actually factor in points from bench players too, not just the starters.😉

So, that means Gibson's scoring is going to be baked right into those totals.

Exactly, so they're looking at opponent points from X position regardless of whether it comes from a starter or someone coming off the bench.🙂

Boozer could definitely slide into the over here, because when you've got Rose out there, there isn't really anyone else stepping up to score, and you can't exactly lean on Korver since Philly actually defends the backcourt pretty well, so they'll likely have to rely more on their bigs inside.

http://www.nba.com/statscube/player-...01011;season=r

Philly isn't exactly an absolute powerhouse in the paint, so Boozer dropping about 15 points shouldn't be much of a stretch at all.🤷

If they take Wade Jennings—which I might if I were playing—I'm just not sure if he hits the over. 🤷

It’s fascinating how much people on this forum seem to hate Goozer. 🤣

He’s got Olympic gold, whereas I don't think anyone from the old North American leagues playing between '81 and '12 can claim that.
😁

People hate his guts, yet they're all over the comments with smiley faces whenever he hits an over on his player props. 🤷
It just goes to show that when there's money on the line, people will overlook just about anything.

edit: taking OKC at 2.05 in Germany 😲 The value is simply too high to pass up, even if it doesn't pan out.

James Taylor3 said:If he picks up Wade Jennings, I honestly can't tell if that over is actually going to hit.🤷

It’s pretty wild how much people on Reddit love to hate on Goozer.🤣

Exactly, because if Wade really starts controlling Jennings, that pick gets super shaky, so I probably wouldn't touch it unless I was just feeling lucky with some random underdog play.

Nah, Goozer isn't actually hated, people just love playing around with those funny nicknames based on his last name.🤣

He's basically the twin brother of Kevin Durant🤣 🤣

There are a billion games happening today—and I don't like any of the lines or odds.

Taking a quick breather.

graniteotter6 said:edit: looking at OKC at 2.05 on FanDuel😲 that’s pure value regardless of the outcome.

Over at DraftKings, you can grab the Thunder at 2.25.
Now, that's actually valuable.
😁

Nicholas Chase34 said:Because if Wade manages to shut down Jennings, the pick gets shaky—not really worth playing unless you're looking for a long shot.

The "B(G)(L)oozer" thing isn't about hate; it's just some clever wordplay on his last name. 🤣

He's basically the twin brother of Karl Malone. 🤣 🤣

B G L oozer🤣

Plus, everyone's talking trash after that disastrous last season. Personally, I was never a huge fan either. 🙂

Yeah, Malone is just Boozer in a different jersey—same style, same build. 🤣

There isn't a DraftKings nearby, and honestly, I really can't be bothered to drive all the way over there.
I've put together three different parlays—it feels like I'm just throwing money away at this point, but I can already see how this is going to play out.
It doesn't matter much, though; Thursday is basically a wash in the NBA anyway, so I suppose we might as well play while there's actually something happening. Just piling them on.
I've been hunkered down here since 1:15 AM with nothing but a pack of Kleenex for company.🙂

Honestly, I’ve got some solid picks lined up so far. Grabbed two singles: Philly over 1.5 against Chicago at 2.1 SS, plus Rubio under 12.5 in the Germany game. Just holding off on the Rozan under 15.5 until I see if Barnjani gets any minutes first.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Honestly, looking at the board right now, I’ve already locked in two singles—Philly-Chicago over 1 and 2, just 2.1, plus Rubio under 12.5 for Germany. Still holding off on the Rozan under 15.5 though, gotta see if Giannis actually suits up first.

Giannis definitely isn't playing... at least from what I’ve managed to dig up...

So, out of this whole spread, I think I'm gonna stick to player props—maybe a 3/4 system with a lower stake.

Going all in on the overs—D-Will, Parker, Martin, and Boozer.☕

Just realized I’ve been sleeping on Barnaby for over a month now. Might have to skip the Rosen play entirely, or honestly, just toss him into a parlay for a zero-dollar shot at 3 🤣

...is it finally time for Orlando to go on a killing spree?
Here’s what was rattling around my brain tonight:

Orlando moneyline -9.5, I say take the juice
Parker over 17.5 points
D-Wills over 19.5 points

The player prop lines at my local sportsbook are sitting about a buck lower than usual, and the Orlando spread is a half-basket shorter too...🤷
Looks like another sleepless night ahead...😂

Honestly, I wouldn’t bet on Orlando right now. They've been playing some of the absolute worst basketball in the league over the last four or five games.

I’m looking at Washington @4.5 and honestly... that's some serious value right there.

...man, now I'm second-guessing myself too...🙂
Orlando is playing absolute garbage right now, and honestly, Washington hasn't exactly been impressive lately either. Sure, they picked up wins against Charlotte and Oklahoma, but let’s be real—they played way above their weight class in those games. Usually, when these two meet, you can bank on that spread hitting easily...
I don't know. My backup plan is just taking Wallace over 13.5 points. What do you guys think?🤷

Orlando looks absolutely pathetic right now, and honestly, they aren't even playing with Nelson or J-Rich. The chemistry in that locker room? Nonexistent. Total rock bottom. I don't see them pulling off anything special today against an opponent this unappealing. And look, as bad as the Wizards have been lately, I wouldn't touch them with a ten-foot pole either—I'm actually on the same page as Alex Cook here. 🙂

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/preview;...gid=2012020119

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...gic_nba_013112 🙄

I’ve got a massive soft spot for the Clippers lately, though. They're really drawing me in. 🤷

Alright folks—any realistic shot at this slip hitting today?

Williams D(-21.5+)-NJ-DET Over
Wade D(dark)-LAL K. 2
Milwaukee Bucks-Miami Heat x2
New Jersey-Detroit Pistons 1x
Boston-Toronto Raptors 1x
Portland-Charlotte Hornets 1

Thanks... 😁

I think I'll try this approach

Philadelphia vs. Chicago Bulls (Feb 2nd, 1:00 AM)
1
2.10
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Feb 2nd, 2:00 AM)
2
2.10
@ 4.41

And that should be enough. I guess it might finally be time for Chicago to take a loss too.

NBA

Quick breakdown of the board.

MIL/MIA
Honestly, it’s Miami or nothing for me. With Bogut and potentially Jackson sidelined, the Heat are going to have a massive chip on their shoulder—especially since the Bucks absolutely bullied them during their last trip to Miami and again back in April. Look, Milwaukee looked sharp against the Lakers, but Miami is a completely different beast.

The Lakers look totally washed and disorganized right now, particularly on the road where their bench depth is getting shredded. Plus, Miami finally gets Wade back in the mix. If they decide to show up for this one, things could get ugly fast. The big "if," though, is the schedule—Miami has Philly waiting for them just two days from now. I wouldn't hammer this too hard, but I expect Miami to push a lead of 15-20 points at some point. That makes the cover likely, but I'm keeping my unit size reasonable because of the spread, the Bucks' habit of keeping games tight at home, and the possibility that Miami might not care about running up the score if they're looking ahead.

Heat -6.5, 1.93, Pinnacle, 4 units.

PHI/CHI
My gut reaction—and I’m sticking to it—is to play the Bulls. My main reasoning is pretty simple: I think the schedule has given the Sixers a soft ride, especially with those home games. Don't get me wrong, Philly is a legitimate squad. I actually really dig what Collins has done with this group; their defensive metrics are elite, they aren't sloppy with turnovers, and when they find their rhythm, they are dangerous. This is a team built to go on massive runs. When they catch fire, you basically can't stop them. Just ask Atlanta. They were cruising with a 15-point lead before Philly just flipped a switch in the second half and cruised to a 90-76 win. It wasn't even competitive by the end.

But there’s another side to this. If you actually look at their home schedule, they haven't faced anyone truly formidable. And please, spare me the talk about Orlando—those guys are in a total freefall. Everyone else on the list is bottom-tier: Detroit (twice), Charlotte, Washington (twice), Atlanta, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Indiana, Toronto.

Detroit is sitting at 4-19 and a miserable 1-11 on the road.
Charlotte is 3-19 and 1-11 away.
New Jersey beat them in Philly, and New Jersey is only 7-15.
Sacramento is 6-15, 2-11 on the road.
Toronto is 7-15, 5-9 away.
Washington is 4-17, 1-8 away.

On paper, those wins look impressive, but let's be real: they were playing against the worst road teams in the league.

Their actual quality wins came against Indiana and Atlanta; their real losses were to New Jersey and Denver. So, where does that leave us? With Hamilton and Luol Deng out, the Bulls might struggle, but Philly isn't exactly immune to issues either. My numbers still favor a Bulls win. Philly is good, sure, but that 11-2 home record is bound to face some regression soon. Meanwhile, Chicago managed to compete in Miami even without Lucas, Deng, and Rip.

I caught an interesting piece in the Chicago Chronicle.
Team stats (as of Monday)
Offensive Rating: 76ers 97.5 (8); Bulls 96.9 (10)
Defensive Rating: 76ers 86.1 (1); Bulls 87.4 (2)
FG%: 76ers .465 (4); Bulls .459 (T-7)
FT%: 76ers .723 (25); Bulls .734 (19)
3P%: 76ers .383 (5); Bulls .362 (10)
Rebounding: 76ers 43.8 (5); Bulls 45.3 (1)
Turnovers: 76ers 11.4 (1); Bulls 14 (5)

Look, I'm not trying to disrespect the Sixers, I just don't think they're quite the juggernaut everyone says they are. The Bulls, on the flip side, are one of the few teams that can actually push Miami deep in a series (or even take them down). Yeah, losing Deng and Rip hurts, but I still see Chicago coming out on top.

Chicago (-2) 1.95, Pinnacle. 5 units

ORL/WAS

Seriously, how is anyone supposed to pick a side here? Orlando is completely underwater given how badly they've been collapsing in the second halves lately, but the Wizards are capable of losing by 20 to literally anybody. I’d consider a small play on Washington, but with Blatche listed as questionable, I’m not touching that risk. An Orlando first-half bet feels better; the line is shorter, and they usually come out of the gates swinging, like they have a few times recently. It’s always the second half that kills them. They can't hit anything in the third quarter lately. I'm torn. My read is Orlando jumps out to a 15-20 point lead early, then the Wizards slowly claw back until it lands right on the number. Regardless, I can't bring myself to back a team that's actively falling apart, and that's exactly what the Magic are right now. The wheels are coming off, and I want no part of it.

MIN/IND
Rough matchup. I was looking at a spread of 1.5 or maybe 2, but ended up seeing 3. Honestly? I don't know if that's worth touching. Passing on this one.

POR/CHA

I'm really liking the under here; the line feels right. Charlotte just doesn't have an answer on offense, and Portland plays some seriously gritty defense when they're at home. Looking back at the Cats' last six outings, they put up 73, 99, 72, 75, 78, and 87. That 99? That was against Washington at home—don't let it fool you. When they run into a team that actually knows how to compete, they hit a wall. Portland’s been stingy lately, allowing 71, 84, and 89 over their last three home games. This could be a defensive grind. Laying 15.5 points is too much juice for me, so I'm riding with the under. Final prediction: Portland wins 92-77.

POR/CHA U184 (1.96), Pinnacle. 5 units.

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