NBA Betting: Vol. 2

I think we should lean back toward Boozer.

In the Bulls' last six wins, Boozer has been putting up 20.8 points per game, which stands in stark contrast to the 21 points he scored during their previous two losses. Last season, he was a force against Philly, averaging 20.7 points and 11.0 rebounds.

I wouldn't bet on Boozer to go over. As far as I can recall, he’s never really been one to hunt the over against top-tier opponents. If anyone is trying to pick at that, I think someone here probably already mentioned it.
There are 11 games today, and right away, Dal-OKC 2 and Miami 2 jumped out at me. I've found my core picks here. We'll back Granger for the under—I have a feeling he's due for a quiet night—and of course, we're looking to tear through Deron with an over. Any advice, or perhaps some counter-advice?

I took a break last night, which was probably a mistake because I was planning to build a slip around Atlanta winning and Gay for the under (he missed it by half a basket), but I couldn't find anything else that fit my criteria and just gave up. However, since we brought up Boozer, I feel obligated to share my slip from the day before; it was honestly absurd how many "Goozes" hit.

Boozer over 14.5 (he had 10 with about 5 or 6 minutes left when the game was basically decided, then somehow mysteriously ended up with 18)
Wade under 23.5 (he had 20 at halftime and finished with 22)
Mem - SAS x2 73:83, solid, though Gooz wasn't involved there.
Mia-Cha p/k 1/1 (barely cleared the first half, gave me a bit of a heart attack)
Was-Chi p/k 2/2, also without Gooz.
Griffin under 22.5—the guy hits two in the first quarter and sends me straight to bed, thinking, "Don't worry, he won't screw you over, sleep tight." And he finishes with 22.😁

EDIT: Griffin under 22.5 again, especially in a cold environment like Utah where nobody seems to want to play? Advice, or maybe counter-advice?

graniteotter6, didn't realize you were following this too. 👍

Caught some Indiana Pacers action last night—the announcers mentioned Granger just put up 20+ for the fifth straight game. He’ll likely go 3-for-13 from deep today—he has a certain fondness for those stretches—but I'm just speculating here; I haven't checked his matchup or the specific line. 😁

Dallas vs. Oklahoma City? :hmm:

Could be an interesting one to watch, at least.

graniteotter6 said:I wouldn't take the over on Boozer. As far as I can remember, he isn't someone who goes against the heavy hitters. If anyone is looking to pick at him, I think someone already mentioned it here.
There are 11 games today. Immediately, the matchup between OKC and Dallas caught my eye, along with Miami. I’ve found my core picks right there. I'm leaning toward an under for Granger; I feel like it's due for a dip. Of course, we're also riding with Deron for the over. Advice? Counter-advice?

EDIT: Griffin hits the under 22.5 again, especially in a cold environment like Utah where nobody really gets aggressive? Advice? Counter-advice?

I looked into the numbers, and Philly allows nearly 19 points at the PF position. Boozer averages 20 against them. With Hamilton and Deng out, let's be honest—the only real options are Rose and Boozer. Rose will likely double up in the fourth quarter (just like Carlos did last time, going over, then Rose doubles, triples 😬 while Boozer is left hanging like a ghost).

I agree regarding OKC; they aren't going to drop two in a row. 😉

Compared to this season, Griffin is a much bigger candidate for the under than the over. I recall last season when he would easily clear 40 points. 😢

James Taylor3 said:graniteotter6, I had no idea you were wading into these waters too. 👍

I caught a bit of the Indiana game last night, and the commentators mentioned that Granger has put up over 20 points in five consecutive games. He could easily have a standard off-night shooting 3-for-13 today—he does seem to enjoy those stretches—but I'm just speculating here; I'm not even sure who they're playing or what the line is set at. 😁

Dallas vs. Oklahoma? :hmm:

That might actually be an interesting one to watch, if nothing else.

Cheers, Tsigi. 👍
I don't post much here, mostly because I rarely have any inside info (and frankly, I can't be bothered clicking through to figure out who's active and who isn't) nor am I as meticulous as some of you.
Essentially, I just read, and when I play, I usually follow my gut rather than copying anyone else's picks.
The line for Granger is 18.5 points. I have a feeling he might land right around 18. Since they never bother putting Young in the props anyway, 🙄 they're facing the Bulls.
Why the skepticism regarding OKC? It shouldn't be much of a question; from what I've seen, Dallas is acting like the Celtics this year—taking easy wins and dropping the big ones.🤷
I'm hoping Griffin hits 20 or 21 again.

Arthur Hill2 said:I took a look at the numbers, and Philly is giving up nearly 19 points at the power forward spot; Boozer is averaging about 20 against them. With Hamilton and Deng out of the picture, I suppose Rose and Boozer are really the only viable options left. Rose will probably go on a scoring tear in the fourth quarter—it’s what Carlos did last time before we hit the over; Rose just doubles or triples down in the final stretch while Boozer is left wandering around like a ghost.😬

I agree regarding OKC; there's no way they lose two in a row here.😉

Compared to this season, Griffin is actually more of a candidate for the under than the over. I seem to recall him casually dropping 40-point games last year.😢

There it is—that's the kind of insight I was talking about. Much appreciated.

OKC looks pretty solid.
Last year, Griffin fed me quite well with performances like these. If he hits around that 25 mark, you can basically bank it regardless of who they're playing. Stick to the 22.5 or 23.5 lines and play without much worry.

James Taylor3 said:AgentMan, I swear—whenever the two of us end up playing the same pair, things just go sideways. It’s like we’re cursed or something, I guess. 🙂 🤣

So, I woke up in the middle of the night to catch the second half—man, those Indians were absolutely tearing it up, pulling ahead by like 18 points with maybe seven or eight minutes left on the clock. But then, somehow, they just sort of fell apart... honestly, they barely scraped by with a win in the end. Total nail-biter. 🙂

I’m gonna absolutely wreck these incompetent hacks. 🙂
I caught most of the game and honestly, I’m still trying to wrap my head around it—how the hell did the Nets, playing two men down, blow a lead that badly and almost let it slip away? I mean, sure, you've got D-Will—who, let's be real, probably runs better plays than CP3 at this point—but then there's Morrow... and man, just... what was that? Seriously, wtf. 🤷

So, what's the move for today? I'm thinking about throwing down a counter—might just end up handing someone else a win, I guess. 🤣

graniteotter6 said:And there it is—that’s the exact kind of insider intel I’ve been talking about! Much appreciated.
The OKC vibes are smelling pretty sweet right now.
Last year, Griffin kept feeding me those juicy lines, you know? You just grab him at that half-point spread around 22.5 or 23.5 and you can fly high without a single worry in the world, no matter who they're playing against. It's a total lock.

Look, Griffin constantly dips below that 22.5 mark, and honestly, Granger isn't exactly tearing it up with the Timberwolves lately. Plus, in my book, that 19.5 margin is way too high—I mean, Granger is basically a career 29.5 percent shooter when he's playing in Minnesota, which is easily his worst stretch in any arena.🤷,and Boozer almost always goes under when he's facing the heavy hitters, with maybe one exception.🤷,If you want my take on the safest bets, stick with Rose, Westbrook, or Love.☕

Can someone drop a link to that site showing the projected points per position and all that?☕

http://www.hoopsstats.com/

@Ronald James41/">@@Ronald James41 With Wade back in the lineup, Bosh becomes an incredibly shaky bet. As a whole, trying to predict which one of those three will go over is nothing more than pure guesswork.

Arthur Hill2 said:http://www.hoopsstats.com/

@Ronald James41/">@@Ronald James41 Now that Wade is back, Bosh becomes a massive gamble, and the whole Miami squad is basically just a guessing game of which one of those three hits the over.

thanks 👍

Just run all three—it’s basically a best-of-three system. ☕

Ronald James41 said:Hey guys, how much would you feel comfortable taking the Bosh over 17.5 points? I put together a parlay using a system bet, and since it’s riding on a $67 stake, which definitely isn't pocket change for a little wager, I'm just sitting here second-guessing whether to include this
one.

Hmm... looking at the rotation, once you factor in James and Wade as the primary scoring options, Bosh naturally ends up seeing fewer touches, especially if one of them gets hot—you could see that play out just like what happened against the Pelicans.

As for Griffin, he’s basically a crowd favorite who really feeds off the energy of his home fans, so you can usually expect his best performances when he's playing in front of a home crowd (he averaged about 24.6 points at home last season compared to 20.4 on the road). Also, keep in mind Blake already faced the Jazz earlier this season and put up 10 points (shooting 5-12 from the field in 27 minutes) during Utah's blowout win.

I'm feeling pretty lucky today, so I'm leaning towards D.Williams over 21.5 and Parker over 18.5... and why Parker? Check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jWAs3FKAg 🤷 ☕

Yesterday was a harsh reality check. It turns out I don't care if the odds are 1.2 or 1.85; the result is just as disappointing when you make the amateur mistake of putting a heavy favorite in a parlay against a scrappy underdog like the Pacers.

Today, I'm throwing three picks into the ring. Let's see how they land.

Igoudal (13.5) - Over ...I'm looking for a repeat of last time when he cashed my ticket at 14. He’s been playing with plenty of grit in these East Coast matchups lately. Chicago isn't going to hand him anything on a silver platter, and in a high-stakes game that stays tight until the final buzzer, I expect him to find his rhythm and sink those 4 or 5 shots and free throws.

Love (23.5) - Over ...The intensity of this matchup should force him to step up if they want to take down Indiana. Having Hibbert, West, and Hansbrough patrolling the paint helps, but if he can just knock down a couple of threes, he hits the mark. That said, out of these three, he's the one I trust the least.

Granger (18.5) - Over ...Same game, similar logic. He's in good form, and I refuse to fall for the trap of thinking he's "due" for a bad night.

So, I went through and crunched the numbers on a few of these picks, and I figured I’d just throw them all into one parlay and see what happens.

Rose D. (-25.5+) - Phi-Chi Over
Love K. (-23.5+) - Min-Ind Over
Westbrook R. (-21.5+) - Dal-Okl Over
Leicester (PK) vs Middlesbrough - Draw/Draw
Iguodala A. (-13.5+) - Phi-Chi Over
Granger D. (-18.5+) - Min-Ind Over
Odds: 101.8489

Here’s today’s slip. I threw in one soccer match—just a gut feeling on that one—but the rest are based on your suggestions. What do you guys think?

Arthur Hill2 said:http://www.hoopsstats.com/

@Ronald James41/">@@Ronald James41 Now that Wade is back, Bosh becomes a complete gamble, and the whole Miami situation turns into a guessing game about which of those three might actually hit the over.

All three went under last game. You laid it out nicely, though I suppose LeBron looks like the most likely candidate for an under right now.

Then there's this guy copying Granger's over based on "our" logic 🙏
Honestly, you're practically forcing my hand to play him under just so one of us can enjoy the satisfaction of being right.😁
Rose over? Hmm, interesting. Did it ever occur to anyone that with Beasley returning, Love might actually take fewer shots? 🤷 He did clear 30 points once recently.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Hmm... if you look at how James and Wade function as offensive threats, Chris Bosh naturally ends up seeing fewer touches. I mean, once one of them starts making moves, his usage rate just drops off—you could see that play out clearly during the matchup against the Pelicans.

When it comes to Griffin, he’s clearly a crowd favorite—the kind of player who feeds off the home energy. If you're looking for his most explosive performances, you really have to catch him playing at the home arena; last season, he was averaging a solid 24.6 points there, compared to just 20.4 on the road. As for Blake, he already faced off against the Jazz earlier this season, putting up a relatively quiet 10 points on 5-of-12 shooting in about 27 minutes during that Utah blowout win. I guess we'll see if he finds more rhythm tonight.

I’m feeling a little playful today. I guess you could say I'm in a bit of a mischievous mood. Maybe. I’d say D. Williams to go over 21.5. Maybe? I mean, looking at the matchup, it seems like a reasonable play, though I guess anything is possible in this league. te I’d say Parker goes over 18.5. Maybe. I guess we'll see.So, why Parker? Honestly, I think the answer is pretty obvious, though I suppose some might disagree. Here’s the deal. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jWAs3FKAg 🤷 ☕

I am in complete and total agreement with those two idiots!
So, here are my first two picks for the day. I’ve been watching Deron lately, and honestly, he’s been absolutely tearing it up—averaging about 27 points over his last five games. There's also this interesting little trend I noticed: whenever his team actually pulls off a win, he tends to drop around 26. Given that I’m expecting a victory for the Nets today, I think he's in the right headspace. It seems like he's realized there isn't much else to do out there, so he's started hunting for more shots—roughly 20 per game now. I guess that should be more than enough to clear this margin.
Tony is going up against Houston, who—aside from Miami—is basically running a sieve for a defense right now. We’re talking about an average of 22 points per game from that position during their prime years, and Tony absolutely tore them apart last time they met. He’s been struggling through these last two games, though; honestly, he looked a bit lost out there. I guess he just needs to find his rhythm today, because if he doesn't, we're in trouble.

Best of luck out there!

Nicholas Chase34 said:

Good luck!

I have to say, this Portland situation caught my eye. 🙂I haven't even come close to getting burned at 1.10 odds, especially since I've been hitting much better lines lately... I'm done with this kind of nonsense!!

fadedcyclist4 said:I am totally on board with these two guys!!
These are my first two picks for today... DeRozan has been absolutely killing it over his last five games, averaging about 27, and there is this pretty cool stat where he averages 26 whenever his team wins, so I am really feeling a Bulls victory today. It seems like he realized he’s basically carrying the load lately, so he has started taking way more shots—around 20 a game—which is honestly plenty to clear this line.
Then you have Tatum against Houston, who, after playing Miami, has one of the worst defenses in the league against his position. He usually drops about 22 points from that spot, and he absolutely tore them apart last time; he had a couple of rough outings recently, so he really needs to find his rhythm again today.

👍

I am also eye-balling an over on Jennings' 20.5 when he faces Miami, because even in his last game where his shooting was pretty shaky at only 25% (going 5-for-20), he still managed to blow past the line by hitting 23 points thanks to getting to the charity stripe like crazy (going 12-of-13).

Since Jennings is playing at home now, he gets that huge energy boost from the crowd which usually helps him put up great numbers (averaging 21.5 PPG), and looking back at his season, he has only fallen short of this mark in just two of his eight home games so far. 🤷☕