NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Besides the Lakers, I think it’s about time the Wizards snag an away win against a desperate Charlotte squad. Honestly, they're playing pretty terrible right now and their injury list is getting ridiculous too.
I don't really have the bandwidth for a deep dive here, but it'll probably look something like this:
Charlotte - Washington 2
7/10
Milwaukee - Lakers 2
8/10

Betting Shop derby

Amar'e Stoudemire over 18.5 @1.85
Jennings over 19.5 @1.85
Andrew Bynum over 14.5 @1.85
Luis Scola over 15.5 @1.85
Gay over 19.5 @1.85
LA Lakers on a great deal @1.60
Memphis @1.65
Washington @1.90

6/8

Switching from Premier to Derby because their player lines are always spot on..☕

I wasn't planning on betting any NBA games today, but here we go:

24w/22l ; +32,614 units; ROI: +15.10%

Milwaukee - Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: LA Lakers -5.5

Odds: 2.03

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 4/10

Milwaukee is missing Andrew Bogut today, along with Jackson, who's serving a one-game suspension. Along with Jennings, those two are essentially the engine room for Milwaukee.
Without Bogut, nobody can match his sheer size and mass—not to mention pairing that with Gasol's technique in the paint. Gooden just doesn't have the tools for it. Plus, Milwaukee isn't exactly a rebounding powerhouse, and losing Bogut makes them even more vulnerable there. On the other side, the Lakers have been abysmal on the road this season—sitting at 1-6. This marks the start of a brutal stretch where they play nine straight away games. They’ll be hungry to kick off this road trip with a win. They’re nearly full strength; they're just missing Blake Griffin, but he's been out for a while now anyway. If the Lakers can shut down Jennings, Milwaukee won't have an answer tonight. Even with Jennings playing well, beating a Lakers team that's finally finding its rhythm won't be easy. It looks like Kobe Bryant has settled down—he seems to realize that the less he tries to carry the load solo, the better the team's chances actually are. I trust the Lakers to pull this one off, so I'm taking the handicap.

Charlotte - Washington 2
Milwaukee - LA Lakers hend. -4,5 2
Andrew Bynum -16,5+ 2

🤷

James Taylor3 said:Milwaukee - LA Lakers

Milwaukee is playing without Andrew Bogut today, and they're also missing Jackson, who is serving a one-game suspension. Along with Jennings, those two are essentially the backbone of the Milwaukee squad.
I suppose if the Lakers can manage to shut down Jennings, Milwaukee might find themselves with very little left to work with tonight.

A quick question for you, James Taylor3 or Arthur Hill2...

Since Jennings is likely the only real heavy hitter for the home team today, my gut tells me that most of the shot attempts will probably fall his way... though, then again, if he actually decides to take charge and drive the offense, that’s a whole different story altogether. But I wonder, would it actually be worth betting on Jennings to go over 20.5 points at odds of 1.85?

P.S. You can catch the Milwaukee - LA Lakers game live on SportKlub at 2:30 AM.

Sean Sullivan87 said:A question for you, James Taylor3 or Arthur Hill2...

If Jennings is the only real offensive threat for the home team today, logic suggests they’re going to lean heavily on him for shots—but if he’s actually the one initiating the offense, that’s a completely different story. Is it actually worth taking Jennings B. (-20.5+) at better than 1.85?

He’ll likely take more shots—he's been scoring plenty lately anyway—but we'll see what happens tonight. Personally, I’m not banking on a massive performance from him. He isn't exactly known for his consistency.

Derek Fisher will be the one guarding him—an older veteran at this stage. Yesterday, Rose played him pretty tight, but he was sinking some incredibly difficult shots, the kind that usually just don't fall most nights.

The bottom line is that if those shots weren't such contested, low-percentage attempts, the over would have been a lock against a much better defender. Plus, Andrew Bogut isn't in the lineup yet, which to me leans more toward the over than the under. But honestly, I'm not placing any bets today; this is just my take based on what I saw last night without even digging through the stats or any other nonsense.

Kenneth Bailey said:BetLive - player points total:
(15.5)PHX - Marcin Gortat 1 1.85

Phoenix is facing Memphis tonight—and they’ve got the best interior defense in the league right now: http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball.../12/10/pts/1-1
Memphis has played 18 games this season, and only one center has even touched this line against them—Al Jefferson with 20. I had Gortat against Portland yesterday, and since they also play tight in the paint, he cleared it easily with 8 points... wait, actually he hit his mark...

Marcin Gortat - 13p 👍

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320128021

Two dogs for tonight—Bulls and Clippers? 🤷The odds are way too good to pass up.

Man, I didn't get a chance to post yesterday, and honestly, that losing streak finally broke up, so today I'm diving back in to see if I can catch a heater! 🤷

Chris Bosh over 18.5 @ 1.85
Blake Griffin under 22.5 @ 1.85
Dirk Nowitzki under 20.5 @ 1.85
Paul Pierce over 20.5 @ 1.85
Rose over 23.5 @ 1.85
Gasol P over 15.5 @ 1.85
Williams over 18.5 @ 1.85

6/7 system parlay👍🙂

Just throwing out a little "folk" special here, just something to keep the vibes going, you know?
LeBron James over 29.5 @ 1.85
Jamison under 16.5 @ 1.85
Dwight Howard over 21.5 @ 1.85
Johnson over 19.5 @ 1.85
Kobe Bryant over 30.5 @ 1.85
New Orleans over 86.5 @ 1.85
Terry over 15.5 @ 1.85
Boozer over 14.5 @ 1.85
DeRozan under 15.5 @ 1.85
Granger under 17.5 @ 1.85
Love under 23.5 @ 1.85
Garnett over 13.5 @ 1.85
LA Lakers over 90.5 @ 1.85

11/13 system parlay🙂

I probably should have stayed away from the betting shops yesterday—but curiosity got the better of me. 🙂 🤣

Back at it today, hunting for those wins.

They gave Chris Bosh 18 minutes of floor time, and from what I recall, he always absolutely tore it up against the Bulls 🤔

(except for that one game where he went 1-for-18 from the field)

James Taylor3 said:Another day, another set of wins to hunt down.

While we wait for tip-off... 🙂

Looking at some tempting lines—Paul Pierce over 20.5 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Deron Williams over 19.5 against the Toronto Raptors, and maybe one unit on the Minnesota Timberwolves against the Los Angeles Lakers.

...Luis Scola, Wall Street...🙂
Maybe we should just listen to James Taylor3 and stop betting on player over/unders...
But man, I can't help myself when I see Dwyane Wade in Louisville with a line at -20.5+...
How am I supposed to pass up that over?🤷

ruggedgull32 said:Luis Scola, Wall Street...🙂
Man, we seriously need to start listening to James Taylor3 instead of constantly betting against players on those over/under lines... why do we even bother?
Man, I swear the devil is out to get me again! How am I supposed to keep my cool when I see Dwyane Wade listed at -20.5+ in Louisville? It's driving me absolutely insane!
How on earth can you not take the over on this one?! Are people even watching the games anymore? It’s like, seriously, how do you look at these stats and not see exactly where this is going? I mean, come on!🤷

Look, you can't just blindly follow players without looking at their home versus away splits, because Wall isn't even the same guy depending on where he's playing! It’s wild—when he's at home, he’s cranking out like 15 more shots than usual, whereas when he’s on the road, he takes about 5 fewer attempts, unless the matchup is just sitting there waiting to be eaten up. You seriously have to track that! I mean, how are you supposed to make sense of anything if you don't see how the team's over/under changes based on how an individual player is performing? You've gotta look at the correlation between the player's output and the team totals, otherwise, what are you even doing?🤷Look, if you’re seeing Dwyane Wade at 20+ points, you take that bet immediately without even blinking, right? I mean, seriously, why wouldn't you? But then you look at the Secret Service line where it’s sitting at 23+, and honestly, I passed on it because I have zero faith that all three of them are actually going to hit the over. It just feels too risky, you know what I mean?🤷Look, Paul Pierce could actually pull this off because he isn't dealing with guys like Gordon Hayward or even any real perimeter threats, and let's be honest, the dude just relentlessly hunts his shot and hits them! I mean, look at Kevin Love—he’s averaging around 12 makes against the Los Angeles Lakers, which is absolutely nothing to sneeze at, right? But then again, if he catches fire, he could easily crank up to 25 attempts and blow past that margin entirely, though I honestly have my doubts about that happening. There are plenty of sites out there you can use to track the stats, but man, I don't know if I should even mention them without risking getting slapped with a ban, you know? Just stick to the main one, the big official league site, and you'll be fine.☕Good luck to everyone today!😉

stormyseal9 said:You can't just ignore how players perform at home versus on the road. Wall isn't the same guy when he's traveling; he takes about 15 more shots at home compared to away games, unless the matchup is just perfect. You have to track that. How much does a team's over/under change based on their star player?🤷If Wade is at 20+, take it without thinking. The Secret Service line is 23+, so I passed because I seriously doubt all three will hit the over.🤷Paul Pierce could go because they don't have Gordon Hayward or Allen, so he'll grab plenty of shots and make them. For example, Kevin Love averages around 12 field goals against the Los Angeles Lakers, which isn't nothing. He could easily take 25 shots and blow past the margin, but honestly, I'm skeptical. There are sites you can follow, but I don't know if I'm allowed to post them here without getting banned. Just look up the main one by the league name.☕Good luck today, everyone.😉

...And that’s exactly how I play it. But look, Wall had to drop 15 last night against a terrible team like the Charlotte Hornets just to hit the line, and those guys were absolutely pathetic—they almost stole the win from him at the buzzer...
As for the Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls game, I'm taking the over on both Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose, so let's see what happens. I'm on Wade because the line is low and Tim Hardaway's minor injury means he hasn't been able to protect him as well lately. As for Rose, I'm taking the over because I don't see anyone else stepping up tonight if it isn't him (Luol Deng is out too)... anyway, good luck.

P.S.
Feel free to DM me those sites... thanks!

ruggedgull32 said:...and man, I wrote it just like you did, but look, Wall had to drop over 15 last night against a bottom-tier squad like the Charlotte Hornets because they were playing so bad, and they almost blew that win at the buzzer...
Regarding the Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls game, I’m just gonna grab the over on Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose and see what happens. I'm eyeing Wade because his line is low and Tim Hardaway is dealing with a minor injury, so he hasn't been able to cover him properly lately. As for Rose, I'm taking the over because who else is even going to step up tonight if it isn't him? (Luol Deng is out too)... anyway, good luck everyone..

P.S.
Feel free to DM me any pages... thanks!

You really have to keep in mind that these guys know how to mess with us by setting margins that just don't make sense sometimes. I mean, take Paul Pierce—he averages around 16.5 PPG, yet his line is rarely ever below 19.5, which is like 3 points higher than his actual average, and people end up getting burned right along with me🤷, not to mention how different the lines can be from one betting shop to another by 2 or 3 baskets. That's why you gotta track the odds and play where they're lowest. Personally, I usually get my bets in early in the morning before they start messing with the odds or hiking up the margins🤷, because even just one basket can screw you over, kind of like how Kevin Garnett did to me once😠

I think betting on Paul Pierce over 20.5 points today is a massive gamble. Playing weaker teams can be a total double-edged sword—there’s a real chance the Boston Celtics just run circles around the Cleveland Cavaliers so fast that Pierce spends the entire fourth quarter chilling on the bench to rest (kind of like what happened to Andre Iguodala yesterday).

Plus:

Gordon Hayward sounds like he's ready to go, but since his wrist is still killing him, he's looking a bit questionable for Sunday. O'Neal mentioned potentially getting an MRI and sitting out for a bit, but the initial plan is for all three guys to suit up this Sunday. We should get an official word before tip-off.

If you ask me, it's worth trying to slot some action into the LA Clippers and Indiana Pacers games, but I'd take the spread on the Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) at 1.95 odds.

Richard Harris said:I feel like betting on Paul Pierce to go over 20.5 today is a massive gamble. Playing against weaker teams can be such a double-edged sword because there's always that chance the Boston Celtics just absolutely steamroll the Cleveland Cavaliers, leaving Paul Pierce riding the pine for the entire fourth quarter to catch a breather (just like what happened to Andre Iguodala yesterday).

On top of that:

Personally, I think it’d be worth trying to build a little system play involving the LA Clippers and the Indiana Pacers, and maybe taking the spread on the Atlanta Hawks at -2.5 with 1.95 odds.

Look, all that might hold water, but let's be real—even though Boston is weakened, they aren't much better than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are playing way better than they did last year thanks to that freshman Kyrie Irving and veteran Al Jefferson. Besides, he usually gets some rest since he's averaging about 35 minutes per game anyway,🤷and they've been playing lights out lately; I mean, they crushed the Orlando Magic the other day and it didn't stop him from getting his usual minutes,🤷so let's be smart tonight and not fall for whatever trick makes us think Dirk Nowitzki is going to clear 20 points if he plays—to me, that's the safest bet on the board tonight.🤷

POD:
The Matchup: Tony Parker vs Deron Williams
My Pick: Deron Williams @ 2.0

Al Jefferson is looking to stay under 16.5 @ 1.85
It's going to be a battle between Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin, taking them both at 2 @ 1.70
Going with the SS @ 3.7

Kevin Love should come in under 24.5 @ 1.85
Danilo Gallinari likely stays under 18.5 @ 1.85
Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors total points should be under 183.5 @ 1.85
Thinking about the HL @ 6.33

Good luck everyone! ☕