18w/21l ; + 7,096 units; ROI: +4.01%
Dallas vs. Phoenix
Pick: Dallas -5.5
Odds: 1.952
Stake: 8/10
Dallas is missing both Dirk and Vince Carter tonight—a significant hit on paper. However, Carter has been on a steep decline over the last two seasons; he’s struggling this year, and honestly, it might be better for the Mavs that he sits. Delonte West and the speedy Beaubois can cover his minutes effectively. In the starting lineup, Dirk will be replaced by last year's Sixth Man of the Year, Lamar Odom, who hasn't quite found his rhythm in Dallas after that messy exit from the Lakers. That said, he filled in for Dirk last game and performed well—16 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists. He also historically feasts on the Suns; last season, he averaged 19.5 points against them, including massive 29-point outings, while pulling down an average of 10.5 boards. He even dropped 15 points in just 22 minutes during their first matchup this season. He should hold his own. Jason Terry is in a bit of a shooting slump, but he’ll start—he's too high-caliber for this to last long. As for the Suns, they are the perfect kind of opponent for a team looking to snap a losing streak. We’ll see a veteran showdown between Jason Kidd and Steve Nash—should be interesting. On the defensive end, Shawn Marion should stifle Grant Hill and likely dominate him offensively as well. The Suns' only real edge is at center, where Marcin Gortat is a step above Haywood and Mahinmi. But Dallas boasts a top-tier defense—currently third in the league, allowing only 88.4 points per game—and they tend to play even more aggressively at home. They should give Phoenix real trouble. The Dallas bench is undeniably superior to Phoenix's, both in depth and talent. Plus, playing at home provides a massive boost. The squad is motivated to extend their winning streak to two games and improve their record (10-7, 7th in the West). The Western Conference is incredibly tight right now; teams are fighting tooth and nail for playoff spots, and the Mavs simply cannot afford to drop games like this—with or without Dirk.
Phoenix is a subpar squad. They play poorly, possess very little quality beyond Nash and Gortat, and have a bench that is currently out of form.
Dallas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings played in Dallas, usually by double digits. Last year, they swept all four matchups against Phoenix convincingly—winning by 15 and 25 at home, and 6 and 8 on the road.
Earlier this season, Dallas took the single meeting between them by 9 points (98-89). They actually led by 21 with seven minutes left, but they coasted, brought in the reserves, and ended up with "only" a 9-point margin. After those initial stumbles against Miami and Denver, Dallas has been dominant at home, riding a six-game home winning streak. I expect that streak to continue tonight.
This spread feels far too low. Phoenix is essentially Dallas's favorite victim; Dallas is much deeper, they're playing at home, they're on a six-game home win streak, and Phoenix is one of the weaker teams in the league. To make matters worse for the Suns, they play Toronto tomorrow—a game they really need to focus on. I'm convinced this spread would be significantly higher if Dirk were playing, but I believe they'll handle business easily even without him. Going with a high stake here.
