NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Nicholas Chase34 said:G. Henderson under 15.5 @ 1.85
L. Scola over 17.5 @ 1.85
B. Jennings under 18.5 @ 1.85
@ 6.33 ☕

Is this some kind of joke? 😁

Terry Cook48 said:is this Germany? 😁

Yeah 😁

Augustine (-15.5)-Orl-Chaover1.85

Maybe take a flyer on Augustine. He’s finally finding a rhythm and getting more looks at the rim. Last time he went up against Orlando, he dropped 14 despite a brutal 3-11 shooting night.

Scola looks decent for the over too, but honestly? He’s way too inconsistent. He rarely gets to the free throw line, and that’s a dealbreaker for me.🙂

Plus, the Houston Rockets shouldn't have any trouble handling the Detroit Pistons at home.

I mentioned before that Kobe Bryant would probably be feeling the fatigue.😁

What are your thoughts on Chris Bosh going over 17.5 tonight?
His season average at home sits right around 21, and since Dwyane Wade isn't in the lineup, he’s likely going to be forced to shoulder a massive volume of shots...

Joshua Peterson56 said:What do you guys think about Chris Bosh going over 17.5 tonight?
He usually averages around 21 at home—plus with Dwyane Wade out, he’s definitely going to be hunting for more shots...

If Wade isn't playing, the over is a lock. Last time he was out, I think he dropped something like 35 points. Okay, fine, it was three overtimes against Atlanta, but still. He had already cleared the Margin by halftime with 19 points, if I remember right.

Casey White13 said:If Dwyane Wade isn't playing, the over is a lock. Last time he was out, I think he dropped like 35 points. Okay, fine, it went into triple overtime against Atlanta, but still. He already cleared the Margin by halftime with 19 points, if I remember right.

LeBron wasn't even around back then
I'm just waiting for confirmation that Favors is out tonight, then I'm hammering the over on 18.5 for Richard Jefferson.

William Price66 said:I told you guys Kobe Bryant was gonna be exhausted.😁

Master, when are you gonna drop another one of your takes? Good luck.😉

Lawrence Castillo76 said:back then they didn't even have LeBron
man, I'm just sitting here waiting for some confirmation that there aren't any heavy favorites tonight so I can just hammer the Richard Jefferson over 18.5

Richard Jefferson is definitely going over, the guy takes like 20 shots a game and hits about 55% of them, so don't even sweat it😍, the only thing actually stressing me out is Carlos Boozer🤷

Phoenix Suns +9.5
Chris Bosh in his matchup against Griffin
Griffin in his matchup against Dwight Howard
Over James
Under Jennings

As for Carlos Boozer, there is roughly a 50-50 chance he won't see any action in the final quarter. It all really comes down to the Chicago coach's mood—basically, how Gibson decides to play things.
Luol Deng becomes the primary option for the team whenever Derrick Rose is off the floor.

George Ward10 said:Master, when are you planning to drop another one of your posts? Best of luck.😉

I'm taking a short break from betting discussions, but I'll still be around to share my thoughts every day. 🙂

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs 1

The Heat are playing at home against a mediocre Spurs squad. Even with a few guys out, they're one of the top title contenders this year, so they shouldn't have much trouble. I'm expecting them to build a 10-point lead by halftime and then just cruise to the finish line.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets 1

Milwaukee is a classic home team; they don't show much on the road and aren't nearly as dangerous as they are in their own arena. I caught the Nuggets playing against the Utah Jazz last game, and honestly, they didn't look great. I can't tell if it's because they're struggling on the road or if it was just an off night, but the Nuggets are still the favorites. That said, I think Milwaukee offers real value here at 2.10.

Richard Jefferson over 18.5, as suggested by a colleague at the top of this page—I agree with him regarding the shooting stats.

Total Odds: 5.24

14w/17l ; +4,994 units; ROI: +3.62%

Houston vs. Detroit
Pick: Houston -7.5

Coefficient: 1.962

Betting shop: Pinnacle

Stake: 5/10

Both teams have been running a grueling schedule lately. For Houston, this is their sixth game in eight days—Detroit is facing their fifth in that same span. It’s early in the season, so fatigue isn't a massive factor yet, but the workload is heavy. Houston is riding momentum with three straight wins; tonight's victory would bring them to a .500 record, which is essential if they want any shot at the playoffs in a brutal, crowded West.
The main engines here—Kevin Martin and Luis Scola—are playing high-level ball and carrying the load, bolstered by Kyle Lowry, who has been electric recently. The rest of the Rockets roster holds up well. Budinger is in decent shape and consistently converts open looks created by the starters. Their new center, Samuel Dalembert, provides much-needed interior toughness on defense, but he’s also been productive offensively with rebounding and finishing lately. While the Houston bench isn't spectacular, they should be able to outmatch a Detroit squad that's struggling significantly. The Pistons currently sit at 3-10, having lost seven of their last eight. They did manage to scrape a win against a similarly lackluster Charlotte side a few days ago, but overall, they aren't clicking. Detroit's defense is porous in the paint, which should leave plenty of lanes for Lowry and Scola to exploit. Furthermore, Detroit possesses one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging just 85.4 points per game. I also read this morning that they are among the teams taking the fewest shots and converting at one of the lowest rates in the league (http://nbacro.com/clanci/pogled-kroz...calderon-13309). Houston has been averaging 108 points over their last three outings and could easily keep that triple-digit scoring streak alive tonight.
Additionally, Detroit is statistically the worst rebounding team in the league. They look exhausted, and they're playing with a roster of veterans who seem to be coasting toward retirement, given that a playoff run is virtually impossible for this club.
On the injury front, Detroit is still without Carlos Villanueva and potentially Andrew Bynum, while Houston's status for Lee remains uncertain, though he might see some minutes.
One more complication for Detroit: a stressful travel day. A hydraulic issue forced their plane to make an emergency landing, requiring them to switch to a taxi to reach a different airport just to continue the trip to Houston.

James Taylor3

[Basketball] [NBA] [Game] Detroit Pistons vs Houston Rockets. All bets taken on [Total] from 1/17/2012 7:12:34 AM to 1/17/2012 7:12:37 AM have been voided due to the following reason: [The offering was compromised due to a typographical error.] Sorry for the inconvenience.

I put money on the -6.5 spread while the odds were at 1.83...
Does that mean the spreads are canceled too?

William Price66 said:Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets — 1

Milwaukee is your classic home-court team—they play one way at home and look like a completely different squad on the road. I caught the Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz game recently, and honestly, they looked lost. I can't tell if it’s just the road fatigue or if they simply had an off night, but either way, the Nuggets are the favorites here. Personally, I see some serious value in Milwaukee at 2.10.

Looking at the numbers—4-0 at home versus a dismal 0-8 on the road—it’s pretty clear that Milwaukee is strictly a home team.
I agree they struggle on the road—but I noticed that five of those eight away losses happened while Andrew Bogut was out. It’s hard to ignore that factor. He’s absolutely vital to them, both on the defensive end and in the offensive sets.

That's right—Denver is playing at home against the Utah Jazz. I know, I missed that myself. 😁

Michael Young2 said:James Taylor3, you catch this?

[Basketball] [NBA] [Game] Detroit Pistons vs Houston Rockets. All wagers placed on the [Total] between 1/17/2012 7:12:34 AM and 1/17/2012 7:12:37 AM have been voided—due to a typo in the original posting. We apologize for the slip-up.

I took the same -6.5 spread when the odds were sitting at 1.83.
Does that mean the spreads were voided too?

I hadn't quite grasped that—until you pointed it out.

And if he's saying "ALL BETS," I assume everything is fully settled then. 🤷
Look at whether you actually got your money back—that’s the only metric that truly matters.

I just placed my bet.

EDIT:

Here’s the latest on Rose for tonight:

Rose mentioned the team is leaning toward sitting him out for a second straight game—though, he added, the ultimate call rests with him.

He might suit up tonight, but I doubt it—why risk an injury for some meaningless game we can easily win without him?

Can I get an explanation from a real NBA expert here?🤷
So, look, David Lee over at Golden State has been dropping 24 to 26 points in his last three games. Does anyone actually know what Cleveland’s defensive lineup looks like at center? Can Lee actually overpower them? I noticed the betting odds for the under just took a massive dive, so something's up.😁

Expert analysis needed, thanks.😁

Hey everyone, I'm back after my little banana break 🙂 . Looking at the boards today, it seems like everybody is betting the house on Jefferson. Personally, I’m riding with Orlando—I think they’ll pull off at least ten points of difference. I'm also eyeing Miami, assuming Wade doesn't suit up. Honestly, whenever he plays this season, it feels like they either win by a landslide or just hover right around the spread 😉
.
If Wade sits out, I'm putting my money on Bosh for the over and calling it a day. Cheers, guys 😍

George Morris3 said:I need an expert NBA opinion here.🤷
David Lee (Golden State) has been dropping 24-26 points over his last three games—does anyone know what Cleveland’s interior defense looks like at center? Can Lee actually exploit them? I noticed the odds for the under just dropped.😁

Looking for some insight. Thanks.😁

Not an expert, but here is my take:

James Taylor3 said:Check if Curry is playing tonight. Lee's recent numbers are largely due to Curry being out, which leaves him taking more shots. Plus, he'll be facing Varejao today—it won't be easy.

And it looks like Curry is indeed out tonight.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...SPV11MQ4SO.DTL

I'm hearing Howard definitely isn't suited up for Utah today. Favors mentioned he’d love to suit up, obviously, but he’s basically saying he won't make a final call until he hits the warmups—so, yeah, who knows, I guess... anyway, here's the link http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...e-bit.html.csp

Honestly, though? I'd still put my money on the Jazz. The Clippers are pretty banged up without Paul and Williams, and Billups is grinding out 40 minutes a night despite his back acting up—they even had that weirdly tough game against the Nets yesterday where almost all the starters had to log 35+ minutes just to keep up. The Jazz look way more rested, they're at home, and... I don't know, why wouldn't they pull this off?

Keith Moore21 said:Howard is definitely out for Utah. Favors mentioned he’d love to play, but he won't decide until he hits the warmups—so, who knows. Here is the link: http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsja...e-bit.html.csp

I’d still take the Jazz here regardless—the Clippers are missing Paul and Williams, Billups is playing 40 minutes despite back issues, and they had an unexpectedly grueling game against the Nets yesterday where almost all starters clocked over 35 minutes. Utah is rested and at home. Why wouldn't they win...

I’m actually leaning toward the Clippers. With Favors out, slow players like Jefferson and Milsap aren't going to handle the athleticism of Jordan, Griffin, and Evans—they could cause real trouble on the offensive glass and create extra possessions. If Utah shuts down the bigs, the Clippers should cruise, since Hayward, Miles, and the rest—aside from Harris—are mediocre at best. Besides, Chris Paul was excellent last night; he’s running the floor smart and hitting clutch threes and layups. I agree the Clippers are tired after yesterday, but they did have three days of rest before the Lakers game.
Mo Williams likely won't suit up, but I'm not so sure about Paul. Judging by these reports (it's only 11:30 AM in LA right now🙂), Paul might be good to go.

A few interesting stats:

The Clippers have lost four consecutive games to the Jazz, and 10 of 11. The Clippers last won in Salt Lake City on Jan. 22, 2003, by a score of 96-86. The Jazz started the season slowly but has won eight of its last 10 games.

Utah isn't as strong as their current record suggests—at least, that's my impression.
Not sure, I see the value at 2.50 on the Clippers at Pinnacle and +5 @ 1.84 there too.

My play:

Utah vs. LA Clippers
Pick: LA Clippers +5

Odds: 1.84

Stake: 4/10