NBA Betting: Vol. 2

why do you think they'll actually stop guy

Lawrence Castillo76 said:With Randolph playing so poorly and Gasol being in such "bad shape," I’m expecting the big men on the Knicks side to absolutely dominate tonight, and honestly, if Fields keeps limiting Guy, I don't see any way the visitors can blow this one. Plus, the odds are actually insane.

What kind of "bad shape" is Gasol in over his last three games when he dropped 20 points twice?!🤷I mean, seriously, I’d sign a contract right now if I could stay in that kind of "bad shape" all year round!😍Lawrence Castillo76, did you just copy someone else's betting slips or what?

Giles is one of those guys who loves playing back-to-back with just one day of rest, and his averages have been tanking by about two points this season because of it. I’ve got no clue what kind of defense they’re going to cook up, but since they don't have a real stopper, Giles is basically their only legitimate threat. That means the defense is probably just going to collapse around him. Memphis might have an edge in transition, but honestly, it feels like way too little to overcome a Knicks squad that's clearly heating up right now. Just my two cents, but without Giles hitting his stride, I don't see the home team covering the spread tonight.

stormyseal9 said:Gasol's been in such "bad shape" these last three games—dropping 20 points from the paint twice now.🤷 Honestly, I’d sign up right now if that’s what his "slump" looks like.😍 Hey, Lawrence Castillo76, you copying my picks?

Nah, I don't touch player props unless someone's actually sidelined with an injury. Good luck tonight though.

Memphis (-4.5) vs New York (13.01. 02:00)
2
1.85
Howard D (-20.5+) - GS Warriors vs Orlando (13.01. 04:30)
Over
1.85
Nash S (-13.5+) - Phoenix vs Cleveland (13.01. 03:00)
Over
1.85
ODDS: 6.3316

Look, if this parlay doesn't hit today, I might just have to walk away from the screen for good...

Gasol’s been hitting 21, 2, and 20 over his last three. Honestly, I think he’s gonna go under his average today.

Honestly, our chances depend way too much on those first two shots. If he misses them, we're cooked—he’ll just end up playing facilitator mode. Plus, he’s facing a killer young talent who’s definitely going to drain his tank on defense. I wouldn't run that play.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:Gasol’s been dropping 21, 2, and 20 lately, so you're telling me he's gonna underperform today?

Man, if you had just copied yesterday's parlay, you'd be sitting on a massive pile of cash right now given how these guys are playing—hell, even a tiny two-dollar bet would have put you deep in the green!🤷,are you even following me here? I nailed it on day one, and just imagine what's coming when I've still got 29 days left to go!😍

The odds you hit were closer to 22, not 200+ like you were claiming, but whatever. You still gotta nail those too, so just keep grinding.

Lawrence Castillo76 said:The odds you actually hit were closer to 22, not 200-plus like you were claiming, but whatever, man—you still gotta nail those if you want to keep this streak going.

Wait, when did I ever say the odds were 200? You're out here putting words in my mouth like some kind of crazy, and honestly, I’ll just tell you straight: someone else is gonna nail a 5 or 6-leg parlay way before you ever hit two, because you're playing all three outcomes, whereas when we play spreads over here, it's a two-way deal and we don't have to sweat a random tie ruining everything like those two games tonight🤷,I was just trying to show you that what you said makes absolutely zero sense, because let's be real, people wouldn't be playing this way if they were constantly bleeding cash🤷,I mean, look, if you put down $3.25, your payout is $70, which means you don't even have to win a single thing for 20 days and you're still sitting in the green, you get me?☕,I'm done arguing about it, seriously, everyone can just play however they think they know best, fine by me☕,good luck today, everyone, and by the way, a 21-to-1 shot is still way better than that 2-to-1 junk you're chasing where you risk losing a massive chunk of change on nothing

Look, I’ve had three draws in a row playing match results. If that’s your only bet on the slip, sure, technically you don't have to nail a single thing for 20 days straight. But let's be real—most people are hitting at least three bets a day depending on what's live. Personally, some days I’ll knock out eight or more, and other days? I don't touch a thing.

Thoughts on taking the over for the Golden State vs. Orlando game (185.5)? The odds dropped to 1.50 in the Derby and hit 1.70 in the Premier... Also eyeing the under for Atlanta vs. Charlotte (184.5). Just torn between these two picks...😕

Eric Fox7, thanks for the detailed breakdown, but I just wrapped up work—missed the window. 😁

My slate for today:

10w/13l ; +3.94 units; ROI: +3.86%

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons

Pick: Under 177.5 total points

Odds: 1.971

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Unit Size: 3/10

No time for a deep dive, so here's the quick version. Both squads are struggling—slow, inefficient offenses. Milwaukee's defense holds up well, and Detroit is decent enough. I expect a low-scoring affair; the under feels right even with such a low line. Minor injury concerns on both sides—nothing game-altering. Didn't have time for a full scouting report, hence the low unit size.

to tsigi, man, that's perfect... looking at the lines, we've got the under at 2 and the over sitting at 1.7... which basically means your pick hits all on its own ☕

Bradley Kern6 said:New York City could pull it off, and at 2.80, those odds are tempting enough
but I'm leaning toward taking the 11.5 handicap at 1.30 and pairing it with a few others to bump up the total stake

I'm right there with you. Personally, I think the value on the Knicks is incredibly strong here, and it’s definitely worth a shot.🤷

Phoenix - Cleveland
pick: Phoenix under 102.5 points @ 1.85 Favorite

The Phoenix Suns are playing a much tighter, more grind-it-out style this season compared to last year, both on the offensive end and when they're setting up their defense. They're currently averaging about 93.6 points per game, though they bump that up to 96 PPG when they're playing at home. On the flip side, the Cleveland Cavaliers are looking a lot better than they did last season; they brought in some new rookies and things are finally starting to look like they might click, even if it'll take a little while for everything to truly fall into place. Defensively, Cleveland is giving up an average of 96 points. Looking back at the first nine games, Phoenix has only crossed that 102.5 mark once, which was when they dropped 109 on the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, Cleveland has only surrendered more than that margin twice in nine games, against the Utah Jazz (115) and the Toronto Raptors (104). Honestly, Phoenix looks a bit slower and less explosive than they did last year, especially since Steve Nash and Tim Hill are the veterans running the show, and both are definitely feeling their age, which shows in their declining efficiency. This heavy schedule probably isn't doing them any favors either, which explains why their scoring average is sitting about 10 points lower than last season. I’m expecting a pretty gritty, defensive battle here, and I think this line is set just a little too high—they probably looked at last year's Head-to-head numbers to set it. In my eyes, this number is at least two points higher than it should be, because given how everything is trending, I don't see Phoenix breaking more than 100 points.🙂

Looking at the league as a whole right now, it feels like the unders are just dominating across the board, whether you're looking at total game scores or individual player props.☕

I’m leaning towards the Over 185.5 for the Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors matchup. I guess there's just enough offensive juice on both sides to make that number feel a bit low, maybe. It feels like a solid play at those odds.
I’m leaning towards the Under on the Phoenix Suns - Cleveland Cavaliers total, maybe around 196.5 at 1.85 odds. I don't know, I just have this feeling it might stay a bit more low-key than that. Just a hunch, though.
@3,4225
Honestly, that was a solid performance tonight. Looking at the numbers now, it seems like the spread between the Golden State Warriors and the Orlando Magic just got a whole lot wider. I guess that's just how it goes sometimes.

New York City (6-4) @ Memphis Grizzlies (3-6) (-4.5) UND 194 OVER

The Grizzlies are averaging about 104 points at home. They’re facing New York City tonight, who just came off a game against the Philadelphia 76ers. Their bench is pretty much non-existent—just three guys ready to go—so I'm expecting fatigue to kick in and snap their four-game winning streak. Their starters averaged about 36 minutes yesterday, while the bench barely saw 18 minutes of action, all while Memphis had the luxury of a rest day. Looking back at the last six games played in Memphis, they've all gone Over. Here's how their recent matchups have looked:

Rudy Gay (hip pointer) is expected to play in Thursday's game against the Knicks.

Gay's hip was swollen and painful Wednesday, causing him to miss practice. He was sent for an MRI which revealed a mere hip pointer. Gay may be sore tonight, but he's fully expected to play. He's logged at least 37 minutes in four straight games.

Gay Under 19.5 @ 1.85 (2/10 confidence)

Atlanta Hawks Under 97.5 @ 1.7
New York City +11.5 @ 1.3 (8/10 confidence)

I don't see the Knicks losing by more than 10 tonight, so I've paired them with Phoenix under. On my second slip, I'm taking Orlando over 188 along with Barca.