NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Never again more than 20 🤷

Keith Moore21 said:I never said he was a bad player, just wasn't particularly impressed... I get it, Nene is a classic center, but I'm wondering how he starts things off. Not sure. Personally, I don't think Haywood is a bad player either... obviously he isn't in peak form right now, but we'll see. All in all, I've got faith in the Mavs today...

Yeah... it would be a total disaster if last year's champs started the season 0-2.😁

I get what you're saying, but Dallas is really feeling the loss of Tyson Chandler; having that grit under the rim is hard to replace,
and honestly, looking at how things shook out yesterday—it felt like the Heat were just battling through the air, especially after losing guys like Caron Butler and JJ Barea,
which leaves me feeling a bit unsettled. Seeing them take an ejection like that just didn't sit right with me, especially considering their record was looking solid at 32-17, 62-39, and 97-63...
Now, Denver sitting at number three could definitely make up for it, especially since they brought in Rudy Fernandez and have some serious talent coming up through the draft.
Getting a pick like K. Faried is huge, and seeing Gallinari and Lawson already finding their rhythm in international play gives them a nice edge.
If I were placing bets, I’d personally steer clear of this one.
When you look at Memphis, they seem to have the upper hand simply based on their track record...
Last year, they went out in that absolute gauntlet of a playoff series against Oklahoma City, a grueling 4-3 battle where three games went
into overtime; if Denver and Memphis hadn't completely exhausted Oklahoma City, who knows if Dallas would have even made it through.
As for the Spurs, they’ve mostly just gotten more seasoned, even after moving on from veterans like Grant Hill and Antonio McDyess.
The real strength behind Memphis and Denver lies in their cohesive team chemistry and having top-tier coaching on the sidelines;
they aren't necessarily stacking the deck with massive superstars like Melo or Kobe.
Look, we don't have to see eye to eye on everything—I'm just laying out my own perspective here.
It’s perfectly clear that a lot of bettors prefer staying away from odds higher than 1.8, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that; everyone has their own way of playing.

He actually pulled it off in the end, just with a few tiny tweaks here and there

Thunder under 107.5 @ 1.85
Williams over 18.5 @ 1.85
Gallinari over 15.5 @ 1.85
Bargnani over 20.5 @ 1.85
Parker over 16.5 @ 1.85
Durant under 28.5 @ 1.85
Love over 20.5 @ 1.85 SS

6 out of 7 system hit☕👍

I honestly fail to grasp why there is such an aggressive obsession with over/under betting lines. It seems incredibly difficult to accurately predict exactly how many minutes a specific player will actually see on the floor; take Rose, for instance, who barely even attempted a shot during the first quarter yesterday
With an 1.85 line plus those manipulative vig costs, I suppose one would find much better value simply heading to a casino to bet on red or an odd number; an 18/37 probability offers a far superior return

Not quite 😉

Rose mentioned that helping the team find their rhythm matters way more to him this year than his own stats... so expect his scoring average to dip by at least 6 or 7 points 🙂

Look, I wouldn't say it'll be a full 6 or 7, because he’s going to have to take control when the games get intense. But if Hamilton stays focused and does his job, we can probably expect somewhere in the 2 to 3 range.

That puts his projected stat line at roughly 22.5 points and 9.7 assists.

Honestly, this season, Deron Williams is going to hit the over on his point totals about 90% of the time... I don't see anyone else on that roster capable of carrying the scoring load—he’s basically going to have to drag the whole team along on his back just to stay competitive.

Hey, any word on if Kobe’s playing against Sacramento today?

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:this season, Deron Williams is going to hit the over on his lines 90% of the time... there isn't anyone else to carry the load, so he'll have to rack up points to keep the team afloat.

You're talking nonsense. Sure, it’s possible Deron will score more than last season—but don't you think the oddsmakers will just adjust the lines to match his production?

No player has ever consistently cleared the over in 90% of their games; Deron won't be the exception. ☕

And besides—a player can exceed the line, but the odds certainly won't.

Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors 1 @1.60

The Cavs grabbed the 4th pick in the draft, so they definitely leveled up a bit. Plus, when bottom-tier teams face off, the better one usually comes out on top.

Washington Wizards vs New Jersey Nets 1 @1.55

New Jersey is struggling without Brook Lopez—they just don't have it. Meanwhile, Washington has a solid young core that’s gained some much-needed experience this year.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder 2 @1.45

Oklahoma City Thunder started strong, and now they're heading to a weak Minnesota Timberwolves squad where Kevin Love is basically the only one who can produce.

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets 1 @1.60

I think the defending champs might find playing at home a bit too much to handle, even if Denver has the edge in the paint.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers 1 @1.55

LaMarcus Aldridge and his crew are just too tough at home right now, especially early in the season.

Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls 2 @1.45

Chicago pulled an upset against the Los Angeles Lakers, and now they're riding that momentum against a Warriors team that just got dismantled by the LA Clippers. I don't see them losing this.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors over 194.5 @1.85

Seems like a safe bet; neither team has much defense, and they'll likely play aggressively to start things off. Makes sense for teams this weak.

Andrea Bargnani over 20.5 @1.85

I feel like Toronto's main guy needs to drop at least 20 points since it's the season opener; he'll step up.

Kevin Durant over 28.5 @1.85

It's a tight line, but who else is he going to drop 30 on if not a team with a defense this soft?

Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5 @1.70

They're facing the Miami Heat 21 while being shorthanded, so they'll have to feed him the ball.

Deron Williams over 21.5 @1.85

With Lopez out, Deron Williams is naturally going to take more shots. This looks like a lock at the 18.5 line.

Pau Gasol over 18.5 @1.85

That's a pretty low bar, and since they're playing the Sacramento Kings, it feels worth it. Add in the fact that Andrew Bynum is out and Kobe Bryant will be eased in due to his hand, and he's the main presence inside.

☕

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Andrea Bargnani over 20.5 @1.85

I think Toronto's main guy needs to drop at least 20 points. It's the season opener, after all. He'll step up and take charge.

Kevin Durant over 28.5 @1.85

It's a razor-thin margin. Who else is he going to score 30 against if not teams with defense this weak?

Bargnani isn't even close to being Toronto's top player... and 20 points is a pretty high bar in basketball. It's not something you just walk into, regardless of how easy it looks to us. I doubt he hits that, especially since it's the first game of the season. Avoid that pick, and skip the Durant one too. Everyone is sleeping on Minnesota, but mark my words, Oklahoma City Thunder is going to struggle, if they even win. As for Durant's over 28.5... maybe it's possible if Russell Westbrook wasn't on that OKC roster. If you caught yesterday's game, you could easily see that Russell Westbrook hasn't figured out how to pass yet. He spent most of the game charging toward the rim instead of moving the ball. Durant can't score without having the rock in his hands... and there can only be one ball on the court at a time. To me, that's a clear under.

I honestly find it hard to believe the Spurs might actually crack the 100-point mark tonight.🤷

I'm with @Steven Baker12/">@@Steven Baker12 on Bargnani — honestly... I’d take the under 22.5 on the HL

What do you guys think my odds would be if I decided to play all 12 games today as singles with equal stakes, but strictly betting on the favorites? Just thinking out loud here, purely theoretical—I'd love to hear what the more experienced folks around here think. Thanks.

John Moore51 said:Hypothetically speaking—what do you guys think happens if I play all 12 games today as singles with equal stakes, but only betting on the favorites? Just looking for some expert insight here. Thanks.

To hit a $33 stake, you’re looking at putting down 1,200... and you'd need to nail about 8 of them—roughly calculated by the odds—just to break even. That's the basic math right there; after that, it's just up to your gut. 🤷

Personally, I'd rather bet on all 12 draws... one hit gets your money back... and it's not exactly rare to see three of them hit at once. 😁

Michael Diaz said:I suppose I should probably get started on this. $33 You have to put down $1,200... and I suppose you would need to hit roughly eight outcomes—based on a loose calculation of the odds—just to break even on your initial stake. It’s really just basic math at that point; everything else, of course, is entirely up to your own discretion. 🤷

Personally, I’d much rather just play all twelve X options... at least one usually covers my stake... and honestly, it isn't exactly rare to see three of them actually hit. 😁

James Taylor3 told me to put my money on the Orlando Magic to cover an 18.0 point spread against the Houston Rockets—it’s a pretty enticing line, I guess.

Michael Diaz said:For the role. $33 You have to put down $1,200... and you basically need to hit about eight winners—calculated roughly based on the odds—just to break even on your initial stake. It’s really just simple math at that point; after that, everything else is entirely up to your own intuition. 🤷

Personally, I’d much rather just play all twelve X's... at least one usually covers my stake... and honestly, it isn't exactly rare to see three of them come through. 😁

I’ve given that same thought some consideration myself, though I have to admit, I’ve never actually marked an "X" on a betting slip in my entire life. To me, it just always felt a bit... unserious. Like you weren't really committing to the outcome. Still, I suppose I could give it a shot if I were playing for much smaller stakes.

I’ve been trying to gather some insight from other players lately. My relationship with my bankroll management is actually solid—I’m a pretty disciplined guy when it comes to following my own rules—but I’ve hit a bit of a wall. I just can't seem to settle on a consistent betting style. Whether it's sticking to singles, going for doubles, focusing on over/unders, or trying out combo bets... nothing seems to stick. It's like I have the discipline, but I'm missing that steady rhythm in my strategy.
Thanks for the reply.

James Smith50 said:Along with Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls today, I’m also liking those +10.5 New Jersey points at 1.30.

I've decided to pass on the New Jersey play; my main focus for today stays on the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Chicago Bulls...

And a quick word of advice for everyone here. Go after the spreads, take the wins, heck, bet on anything against the Orlando Magic, but just don't bet on them... I've been pulling for this team for a long time now, and let me tell you, what we saw last night was absolutely pathetic. Between Dwight Howard moving around the court looking completely lifeless and the obvious dysfunction rotting the organization from the inside out, it's just not good...😉

Lmao, I barely had any time to break this down, so I just put together some picks for the smaller roles:

Slip 1:
Chicago Bulls
Dallas Mavericks
Sacramento Kings +9.5
Monta Ellis under

Slip 2:
Orlando Magic vs Houston Rockets under 199.5
Danny Granger under
Luis Scola over

Good luck to all the bettors out there! 👋