NBA Betting: Vol. 2

James Taylor3 said:I think the under looks pretty solid for the Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks game. 👎

Both teams have some of the worst offenses in the league. The Bucks were bottom-tier in almost every offensive category last season, and Charlotte—now without Ben Wallace or Joakim Noah—wasn't much better. Both squads play at a very slow pace and hold up well defensively; the line they're offering feels a bit too high, so I’m taking the under with a 4/10 confidence level.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors over 3/10 👍

Both teams were among the league's worst last year, defined by desperate defense and decent scoring. Cleveland landed huge talent in the draft and is expected to step up this year, while Toronto is unlikely to make much headway. Either way, the over seems worth it—it's hard for these two to keep an opponent under 90 points, and I expect at least one of them to hit triple digits.

As for the other matchups, I wouldn't be surprised to see upsets from the New Orleans Pelicans or the Memphis Grizzlies.

1 win, 1 loss.

In that Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks game, 22 baskets dropped in the final two minutes—so there you go. 🙄
The upset from last night was New Orleans. If only I had played it.
🙂
I'll be keeping a separate tracker specifically for my NBA picks.

Current status: 1w/1l (-0.94 units)

Steven Baker12 said:SLIP #2:

Washington Wizards vs New Jersey Nets 2

One leg: Deron Williams ... Washington is still way too weak to compete with anyone right now ...

Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets 2

The Hornets have leveled up. They look better than Phoenix at every single position except point guard ... With Andre Gordon and the Kaman vs Emeka Okafor duo in the paint, they should handle this one easily.

1/3 ... rough day ... Dwight Howard let me down on the first one, then the Memphis Grizzlies got me on the second ... At least this covers yesterday's bet if nothing else ...

Today I'm feeling sharp, looking to play:

Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves

+ maybe 1-2 more over/under plays ...

Steven Baker12 said:Andrea Bargnani isn't even close to being Toronto's top guy... and 20 points is actually a pretty solid number in this league, plus it's not like he's just cruising to them... even if it looks easy to us... so I doubt he hits that, especially since it's just the season opener. Avoid that bet just like you would Kevin Durant... everyone's sleeping on Minnesota, but you'll see Oklahoma City Thunder really struggle, if they even win at all... as for Durant over 28.5... maybe possible if Russell Westbrook wasn't on the roster. If you watched yesterday's game, it was obvious Russell Westbrook still hasn't figured out how to pass, spending most of his time charging the rim instead of moving the ball. Durant can't score without the rock... and there can only be one ball on the court at a time... so in my book, that's a clear under.

He's not the lead, but he's a key piece. When I said "main," I meant the main scoring option—if I recall, he led the team in scoring per game last season in Toronto. But yeah, he went way under.

And Durant cleared it, though Westbrook was definitely hogging the ball again.

Man, I really blew it on my Dallas Mavericks bet 🙈
I mean, they clearly aren't quite there yet—it’s looking pretty rough, honestly. Taking two massive home losses right at the start of the season? Yeah, I think I'll be staying far away from them for a little while 🙂
Huge congrats to the Denver Nuggets...

Oh well, I guess I'll be making some much smarter calls today 🧐

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:DraftKings

👍 👍
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder 2 @1.45
Kevin Durant over 28.5 @1.85
Deron Williams over 21.5 @1.85
Portland vs Philadelphia 1 @1.55
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors over 194.5 @1.85

👎 👎
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors 1 @1.60
Washington Wizards vs New Jersey Nets 1 @1.55
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets 1 @1.60
Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls 2 @1.45
Andrea Bargnani over 20.5 @1.85
Dirk Nowitzki over 22.5 @1.70
Pau Gasol over 18.5 @1.85

☕

If I had bet 1 unit, I'd be down -3.45 units. But I split this into a few different slips and they all missed, so 🤦

James Taylor3 said:You're talking nonsense here. Sure, it's possible Deron Williams might score more than he did in previous seasons—but don't you think the oddsmakers will just adjust the lines to match his actual production?

No player ever hits the over in 90% of their games... and Deron certainly won't be the exception. ☕

And besides, a player can hit the over on points, but they aren't going to hit the over on the odds themselves.

I know they'll adjust... but even if he drops thirty-plus in two straight games, they aren't just going to set his line at 29.5... and as for that bit about the odds, yeah, I messed that one up. 😢
As for that 90% thing, I was thinking about the stretch before Brook Lopez returns... so maybe something like 15 games...

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Rajon Rondo
my pick: under 16.5 points @ 1.85 DraftKings ☕

Nicholas Chase34 said:Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Rajon Rondo
pick: under 16.5 points @ 1.85 DraftKings ☕

Pierce isn't in Boston tonight... I have a feeling they'll push past 16.5 regardless—probably landing closer to 20...

Here is what I'm looking at today: Deron Williams over 22.5 @ 1.85
Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves spread -2 - 1.85
Grevis Vasquez under 18.5 @ 1.85

Lawrence Vaughn3 said:I know he’ll adjust—but even if he drops two 30-plus point games back-to-back, they aren't going to move that line down to 29.5. As for the odds... yeah, I completely screwed myself on that one. 😢
I was feeling about 90% confident in this over—at least until Brook Lopez gets back into the rotation. We're looking at maybe fifteen games before then.

Sure, he’ll put up big numbers while Lopez is out—but if he drops 30 points in a few games straight, the oddsmakers will just tighten that line back down to 25 or 26.
Personally, I don't see him scoring that much—so there won't be any massive shifts in the spread. I'd cap him at maybe 24 or 25 points.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics.
Rondo.
The choice is clear—pick one. Under 16.5 points — 1.85. DraftKings ☕

Solid matchup. Rondo isn't going to find it that easy to score against Wade and his crew—not compared to how they handled those porous Knicks. If Pierce shows up tonight, Rondo’s over becomes even less likely.
In any case, it’s a very solid pairing. 👍

What’s the move here, folks? What are we thinking?

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (1.55) 1

L.A. Lakers vs. Utah Jazz (1.65) 1

Wade D (-24.5+) Miami vs. Boston (1.85) over

4.73 ☕

darkmarlin16 said:What are your thoughts on this?

Looking ahead to the matchup between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, I’ve been crunching the numbers for this one. We're looking at Miami as the underdog here, getting some points, while the Celtics sit at around 1.55. It’s shaping up to be an interesting contest, though my gut tells me there's more to unpack than just the initial spread.

The Lakers versus the Jazz is looking like one of those matchups where the odds feel just a little too inviting to ignore. At 1.65, the money is leaning heavily toward an L.A. win, and frankly, I can see why. While betting on favorites can sometimes feel like a chore, there’s enough logic here to justify the play. The Lakers have the edge in sheer talent and experience, and if they show up with even a modicum of consistency, Utah shouldn't be able to keep pace for all four quarters. It’s a calculated risk, sure, but I’m feeling optimistic about the Lakers taking this one home.

Looking at the numbers for Wade, specifically that -24.5 spread, I’ve got to say, I’m leaning toward him clearing that over. When you factor in his current momentum and how things are shaping up for the Miami Heat, I think we're looking at a much higher output than what the oddsmakers are projecting. It feels like a solid play if you're looking for some value.

4,73 ☕

Honestly, those matchups were absolutely top-tier. Truly some stellar pairings there. 👍

Even if I wanted to be optimistic, I have to admit that the Miami Heat are looking a little sketchy to me right now.

I don't know, man, I'm feeling like today's my best shot at hitting a parlay—maybe thinking Miami 1/1 half/full and the Atlanta Hawks...

Keith Moore21 said:Honestly, my best bets today are the Miami Heat to win by more than a bucket and the Atlanta Hawks to cover...

What makes you so certain about Miami? 🤷
I mean, they definitely have a stellar roster, but still...

No clue here... just thinking out loud 😁

Jefferson A. (-18.5+)-LAL (12/28 04:30) under 1.85
Love K. (-21.5+)-MIL-MIN (12/28 02:30) under 1.85
Rondo (-16.5+)-MIA-BOS (12/28 02:00) under 1.85

Portland (h-7.5)-Sacramento (12/28 04:00) 1 1.85
New Jersey (h+10.5)-Atlanta Hawks (12/28 01:30) 1 1.30

I was looking back at some of the old threads and while I did like the idea of Rondo being under, I’m actually leaning more towards C. Boston under 15.5 right now... 🙂

Bradley Kern6 said:why are you guys so sure about Miami? 🤷
they've got an awesome squad

😕

So what you're saying is Miami's gonna lead at halftime and then just cruise to a win at the end... yeah, basically. They’ve got a killer roster—honestly, they're playing at a hundred miles an hour right now. Plus, their chemistry feels even better than last season, you know? Like, they actually play as a unit, especially when it comes to that defense...

Keith Moore21 said:😕

So, what you're telling me is that the Miami Heat are going to hold onto a halftime lead and eventually cruise to a win... essentially? Look, they have an incredible roster right now. They’re playing at a hundred miles an hour, and honestly, their chemistry seems even tighter than last season. They really play as a cohesive unit, especially when it comes to their defensive schemes...

😁
I also neglected to mention that the Boston Celtics have a fantastic squad as well. 😁

Bradley Kern6 said:😁
forgot to mention that the Boston Celtics have a really solid squad 😁

🤣 I mean, honestly...
Look, nobody would be happier than me if the Boston Celtics pull this off today, but... the Miami Heat are just on another level right now. They've got that trio we all know can absolutely tear things up—and I think Chalmers has actually leveled up quite a bit lately, especially on the defensive end. Then you've got Jones, who just keeps knocking down threes like it's second nature after driving hard and getting those kick-outs from Wade or LeBron. Plus, having Haslem holding it down in the paint, along with Howard and Anthony providing some serious defensive grit—it's tough. Offensively, they probably won't even see the ball much... the Boston Celtics are really feeling the absence of Paul Pierce, and even if he does show up, he's definitely not at 100%. It’s probably all going to come down to whether Rajon Rondo finds that magic spark... If I had to bet, I'd say Miami takes it. They're at home, and the crowd support is gonna be insane (especially against a team like Boston)...

The Boston Celtics don't actually have an elite roster; they just have a decent starting five consisting of Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Bass, Paul Pierce, and Paul Pierce.

Everything else is frankly a disaster.

Regarding Rondo, he earned the bulk of his points by exploiting the New York City Knicks' terrible transition defense, where he could simply sprint toward their basket for an easy layup.

If you ask me, Miami can only dream of matching that, and even though his jump shot was working on Sunday, I generally agree with taking the under.

Arthur Hill2 said:I had very little time for analysis, so here is what I am playing for the lesser roles:

List 1:
Chicago Bulls 👎
Dallas Mavericks👎
Sacramento Kings +9.5 👍
Deron Williams under👎

List 2:
Orlando vs Houston under 199.5👍
Danny Granger under👍
Luis Scola over👍

Good luck to all the bettors out there! 👋

I will act as if I didn't play the first one. 😬

Thoughts on the Lakers today? The odds seem way too high for no reason.🤷