NBA Betting: Vol. 2

San Antonio-Dallas Mavericks (01/06, 02:30)
2
2.25
Sacramento-Milwaukee Bucks (01/06, 04:00)
2
1.75
Tim Evans-Jennings B. (01/06, 04:00)
2
1.70
Dirk Nowitzki (-23.5+)-San Antonio-Dallas (01/06, 02:30)
over
1.85
ODDS: 12.3834

Tony Parker over 18.5

It's a slight adjustment from yesterday's 17.5 line, but I still feel pretty good about it... Honestly, there isn't anyone else on the Spurs who can really step up and score like he can, especially since Tim Duncan is getting older and it's tough to expect big numbers when you're playing on the second night of a back-to-back... Richard Jefferson came off the bench yesterday, but if Parker doesn't drop around 20 or more, it’s going to be a real struggle for San Antonio to pull out wins... He finished with 21 yesterday, taking all those crucial shots in the final three or four minutes when the game was on the line, even though he struggled early on shooting just 3 of 11... He ended up using 16 field goal attempts and hitting 9 free throws... His matchup is against Jason Kidd, and while Kidd used to be an elite defender, he's pushing nearly 40 now and is also dealing with this back-to-back schedule, so I think this looks solid...

Mavericks +3.5

Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but San Antonio seems much more exhausted after last night's grind, and their rotation is looking pretty thin... Dallas absolutely cruised past Phoenix yesterday, and nobody had to play heavy minutes, so they have a deep bench that should be able to handle the workload here... San Antonio doesn't have many options to work with; Jeff Green played great late in the game yesterday alongside Ford, but they aren't exactly the kind of players you can rely on for massive stats every single night... On the other hand, Dallas has Baron Davis, Vince Carter, and Lamar Odom finally finding their rhythm, which should make them just a bit too much for the Spurs to handle...

Brian Windhorst via ESPN
Dwyane Wade is seeing some improvement with his foot, but LeBron James is worried about the swelling in his ankle. It's looking like they might both be questionable for the matchup against Atlanta tomorrow.

Is Bosh out too?

Personally, I think they'll both end up playing—or at least Dwyane Wade will. As for LeBron James, I don't think he actually wrecked his ankle that bad; I've dealt with stuff like that myself, and if I’d truly messed mine up, there’s no way I would've been able to keep going like that. He just got lucky that he only caught the guy on his foot—if his ankle had actually rolled, things would have gotten ugly fast...

Both guys are playing well, but why take a risk on Atlanta? They just lost Tracy McGrady, who isn't even on the roster anyway... It’s much safer to just bet on Chris Bosh...

Moving on, I'd skip the San Antonio-Dallas and Sacramento-Milwaukee games. First off, both those teams are loaded with veterans and bitter rivals, so you never know which way the momentum swings. As for the second one, even though Milwaukee usually handles Sacramento well, they've been absolutely terrible on the road this year, so I'm passing.

The only real play left is Portland-LA Lakers. I caught Portland against Oklahoma the other night... LaMarcus Aldridge was great, but they only won because Kevin Durant had a nightmare of a game. Dude went 8-26 from two and 1-7 from three. He hasn't looked this bad since he 😛
For this one, I'm looking at two different options. The first thing that pops into my head is halftime Under 2 @2.15. My second pick is Bynum-Jennings Under 18.5. Pau Gasol is going to be grabbing more shots under the rim tonight, and Bynum isn't going to get many touches playing next to Aldridge.

Portland is basically an absolute fortress at home...

I'm going with Atlanta to lead at halftime, 1st half, at 2.15...

I guess who's covering Chris Bosh today?

Nancy Hill2 said:Both will play, but why take the risk with Atlanta? They just lost Tracy McGrady anyway—who isn't even on the market right now.

All that’s left now is Portland vs. LA Lakers. I caught the Portland game against Oklahoma the other night—LaMarcus Aldridge played a hell of a game, but they really only pulled it off because Kevin Durant had an off night. The guy went 8-26 from two and 1-7 from three. Honestly, he hasn't looked this bad since he turned pro. 😛
I’d narrow it down to one of two plays here. The first one that comes to mind—half-time score of 2 at 2.15. The second option—Andrew Bynum under 18.5. Pau Gasol is going to grab more shots in the paint tonight—Bynum won't get his rhythm playing alongside LaMarcus Aldridge.

You aren't exactly well-informed—not that anyone really knows.

Where are you getting the idea they'll both play when nobody actually knows that yet...
Tracy McGrady hasn't been on anyone's radar for quite some time—and it wasn't just tonight.

Andrew Bynum won't be looking to pair up with LaMarcus Aldridge—he’ll go with Marcus Camby instead, who is a far superior defender compared to Aldridge.

It’s not that Durant had a bad night just because he couldn't find his rhythm—it’s because Ben Wallace and Nicolas Batum played him absolutely suffocating defense. Almost every time Durant went up for a shot, one of those two had a hand right in his face.

George Morris3 said:Is there a specific reason behind this, or did they just happen to catch them on the road?😁

LeBron isn't playing, and now Wade is being questioned. If you factor in that he's still dealing with lingering injuries, plus his shooting was absolutely abysmal in the last game, and they clearly have no answer for breaking through the Atlanta defense... honestly, that 2.25 looks like a gift to me. Am I right? We'll find out in the morning. 🙂

LeBron James (-29.5) Miami-Atlanta (01/06, 2:00 AM) maybe less than 1.85

Emily Sanchez11 said:LeBron James (-29.5) Atlanta-Miami (01/06, 02:00) underdog at 1.85

I mean, if he doesn't play, the odds hit 1, but if he does suit up, everyone’s gonna jump on the over. Honestly, I’m just not feeling this one at all.

wiredcanyon39 said:If he doesn't play, the odds stay at 1, but if he does get in, he could easily go over, which just makes me feel pretty uneasy about this setup.

I mean, why would anyone bet on him to win if he's just going to be riding the bench the whole time?

what's the vibe on this ticket today:

Bynum-Jennings
Jennings OVER
Portland-LA Lakers UNDER 190
San Antonio-Dallas 2

What do you guys think about this tonight? Just a moderate stake...

Sacramento-Milwaukee (h+2.5) 2 1.85
Atlanta-Miami Heat (h+3.5) 2 2.10
Portland-LA Lakers (h-3.5) 2 1.85

Total: 7.1873

Hey there, basketball junkies 🙂

I'm leaning towards Sacramento (+3.5) over Milwaukee

🤷

@Steven Baker12...is it confirmed that LeBron James is out? If that's the case, then yeah, I'm on board with you 🤷

What do you guys think about San Antonio-Dallas going Under 190.5? I've got a weird feeling about it 🤷

Atlanta/Miami (95.5)-Miami (01/06 02:00)
Not really
1.85

😉

Emily Sanchez11 said:Why would it be 1 if he spends the entire game sitting on the bench?

Well—if he stays on the bench and doesn't actually step onto the floor, then yeah, the odds are 1...

Just some thoughts for today:
Atlanta +3.5 over Miami. 1 Miami played yesterday—that’s four games in five days, zero rest, and they're missing two key guys. Atlanta really should have walked away with a win against Chicago on the road. Honestly, looking back, those free throws were the deciding factor. They only shot 56%. On top of that, Chicago turned in an 18-6 run in transition. Atlanta traveled, got some rest, and all they got was this lousy loss. There's really no better way to wash out the bitter taste of defeat than by picking up a win against Miami.

Sacramento-Milwaukee, Sacramento +3. 2 Sacramento is playing for the third straight game, while Milwaukee actually had a day off to recover. They're going to be missing Andres Bogut today, whereas on the other side, Tim Evans is looking questionable. Honestly, regardless of how you slice it, I feel like Sacramento's win over the LA Lakers was a total fluke, and NO isn't exactly playing any better. Milwaukee’s defense is solid though—they're only giving up about 89 points an average.

San Antonio -1.5 vs. Dallas 1 You could honestly call this one an "exclusive" home team situation. Both squads are sitting at 2 road losses apiece, and when they play in San Antonio, the home team just absolutely crushes them. Dallas finally woke up from their coma, too—they went from a dismal 1-4 to 3-4 after those last two games. It’s basically a Texas derby at this point. Historically though, Dallas is 1-5 against the spread in San Antonio, while the favorite is sitting at 5-2-1.

Portland -3.5 - LA Lakers 1 The LA Lakers haven't exactly hit the ground running this year. Even if you look at the shooting and it seems like the squad is finally starting to find their rhythm, I still don't see them pulling off a win against Portland today. Their three-point shooting on the road is an absolute disaster—we're talking 12%. Sure, they've bumped that up to 28% over the last five games, but their scoring margin relative to defense is sitting at -9. Plus, Portland is still undefeated at home. Not looking good.

Emily Sanchez11 said:Why would it be 1 if he spends the whole game riding the bench?

Well, look, if he doesn't step onto the court for even a single second, then yeah, it counts as a 1. But if he gets even one tiny second of playing time, then the under hits. Simple as that, I guess.

Tony Parker over (With Manu Ginobili out, he should have easily cleared 18 points yesterday against a Dallas defense that still looks shaky next to Jason Kidd)
Chris Bosh over (With LeBron James and Dwyane Wade both questionable, Bosh steps up as the main 🙂 for one night only)
Atlanta +3.5 (Like I mentioned before, Atlanta beat Miami on the road even without Wade and LeBron; passing up this handicap would be a mistake)
Dallas x2 (The absence of Ginobili combined with Dallas seemingly finding their rhythm was enough to convince me on this pair)
Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James2.40(This might get voided, but just in case, I expect Kobe to take at least 25 shots tonight—more than what LeBron will likely be able to match)