Today’s slate is brutal—honestly, I’d love to just hammer every single game. 🙂
8w/11l ; +4.44 units; ROI: +5.35%
Denver - New Jersey
Pick: Over 194.5 total points
Odds: 1.85
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Stake: 4/10
Denver is one of the premier offensive units in the league—currently sitting second in scoring average (101.70). They play well; they have deep, balanced rosters, even if they lack a true transcendent superstar. They suffered an unexpected home loss to the Hornets the night before—their first home defeat this season—leaving everyone from the coach to the players frustrated. They’re looking to get back to business tonight. The Nets are the perfect morale booster here (though perhaps the Wizards would have been easier targets, but it doesn't matter). It's a weak squad—even Deron Williams can't do much with these amateurs; his numbers have dipped significantly compared to last season, clearly reflecting his frustration. The Nets simply won't have the firepower to resist a strong Nuggets team, who should win convincingly. Coach Malone has a full roster available, including Lawson, who noted: "It's all right. It's a little sore, but it should be better in a couple of days. I plan on playing on Wednesday." So, they are complete. Denver essentially has two balanced starting lineups, meaning fatigue shouldn't be an issue. Even their centers, Mozgov and Koufos, have started playing solidly. While Denver is elite offensively, their defense isn't anything special, so the Nets should manage around 90 points—which, in my view, is enough to clear this line. Furthermore, there's a good chance Denver runs away with it, which often leads to a more relaxed pace late in the game, potentially squeezing out extra points.
I almost took this over at Pinnacle where the line is 198.5, but since DraftKings is offering a much lower threshold, I'll take it there.
New Orleans - Oklahoma
Pick: Under 187.5 total points
Odds: 1.85
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Stake: 6/10
New Orleans boasts one of the best defenses in the league. They've seen significant roster changes this offseason. They traded away their top playmaker, Paul, and in return, landed two very solid pieces: center Kaman and one of the league's better shooters, Gordon. However, Gordon has been sidelined with an injury for a while and won't suit up tonight—he's typically their leading scorer. The Pelicans have a fairly balanced rotation now, featuring a surprisingly good Jarrett Jack, Italian shooter Bellinelli—who I'm not particularly fond of—solid Carl Landry, and centers Okafor and Kaman. Those two are quality players: one provides interior defense and rebounding, the other offers offensive presence. Their only major absence tonight is defensive specialist Ariza, but it shouldn't matter; New Orleans' team defense should be able to stifle Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is a legitimate title contender with an incredible roster. Durant, Westbrook, Ibaku, and Perkins need no introduction; they are top-tier talents at their positions and are rightful contenders for the championship, or at least the Western Conference title.
However, they’ve played three games in the last four days, and tonight marks their fourth game in five days. That is a grueling stretch. They also had a physical game against Memphis on the road last night. On top of that, backup guard Cook is injured, leaving the Thunder bench quite thin—essentially just Harden and Collison. It's a shallow rotation.
I believe New Orleans can contain Oklahoma, which likely means holding them under, say, 95 points. If that happens, my bet hits.
So, I'm taking the under, and I'll add this as a secondary play:
New Orleans - Oklahoma
Pick: New Orleans +6.5 spread
Odds: 1.98
Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Stake: 4/10 Quite simply, this contra-handicap feels too high. New Orleans might be a mid-tier team, but they are tough at home and play disciplined defense. There's no reason they can't keep it within 6 points of Oklahoma.
Portland vs. Orlando
Pick: Portland
Odds: 1.45
Sportsbook: 스테이트 팜 (State Farm)
Wager: 5/10
Keith Moore21 laid it all out in his analysis—I agree with him completely. Portland is simply the superior squad here. Orlando relies almost entirely on Dwight Howard; the rest of them are just roster filler. Jason Richardson has been a disaster this season, Nelson offers nothing special, and while Turkoglu is marginally better than his abysmal run last year, Anderson’s three-point shooting is hit-or-miss at best. Glen Davis has been surprisingly decent, though. It’s obvious nobody can guard Howard effectively—it's a lost cause. However, Camby and Thomas are seasoned defensive centers; they know how to draw fouls and might just get under "Superman's" skin. Regardless of how he performs tonight, Orlando won't win unless his teammates actually show up. I think Portland has an answer for everyone. Nelson is mediocre compared to Felton in offensive matchups, Matthews can handle Richardson, and Wallace and Batum should neutralize Turkoglu. As for Aldridge and Smith, they’ll handle the heavy Davis. My only uncertainty is how the matchup against Anderson plays out—since he stretches to the four spot, the Aldridge-Anderson dynamic will be interesting to watch. I don't see Anderson causing much trouble for the Blazers.
Regarding Portland's offense—they're playing much faster this season, more efficient, and frankly, more entertaining to watch. They have plenty of scoring options, and the bench depth—featuring Batum, Crawford, Smith, and the rest—is solid. I expect the Blazers to take this because they are fundamentally more talented than the Magic, despite playing a game last night. Portland has two days of rest following this matchup, so they'll certainly bring their A-game to secure the win.
