2016 Car Launch and Pre-season Testing

graniteharbor502 said:Purple sector = fastest sector of the day

Even Manor Oli could grab a fastest sector

Look, Oli—you clearly don't get that during testing they can basically cheat with

1) way more fuel flow than what's actually allowed

2) running a car lighter than the legal minimum weight

3) using illegal tech inside the Power Unit

etc etc...

As far as I know, there's no FIA scrutineering or technical inspections during practice sessions

so you can drive whatever kind of monster you want.

Who knows what Ferrari was actually running!?

ruggedhawk20 said:Is it not a curious thing to consider that even a team like Manor Oli might find themselves capable of clocking the fastest sector? One begins to wonder if we are truly witnessing a shift in the competitive landscape, or perhaps just a momentary lapse in the dominance of the frontrunners.

Oli, are you truly unaware of the reality that during these testing sessions, they have the absolute freedom to run with whatever setup they desire? One has to wonder, if they aren't constrained by the rigid protocols we see on race weekends, isn't the entire data set fundamentally different from what we actually witness on Sunday?

Could it be that they were pushing the limits by utilizing a fuel flow rate that exceeded what was actually permitted?

Is it even possible to compete when you're essentially racing a car that weighs less than the absolute minimum requirement? One has to wonder if we are witnessing a fundamental breakdown in the regulatory oversight provided by the FIA, or perhaps just a lapse in technical scrutiny. If a car is running under the weight limit, doesn't that fundamentally compromise the entire spirit of fair play within Formula 1? It makes one ponder whether the balance of performance is being tipped by such blatant technical discrepancies.

Could one even begin to fathom the implications if illegal systems were discovered lurking within the very heart of the Power Unit? It is a question that weighs heavily on the mind, is it not? One wonders about the sheer complexity required to conceal such deviations from the FIA, and what that might say about the technical ingenuity—or perhaps the ethical shortcomings—of the engineers involved.

It seems we have arrived at a point where the conversation has simply dissolved into repetitive, aimless fragments, hasn't it? One wonders if there is any deeper substance beneath these rhythmic, seemingly hollow utterances, or if we are merely witnessing the slow evaporation of a coherent thought. Is there perhaps a hidden meaning intended here, or are we simply drifting through a sea of indecision?

As far as my understanding goes, isn't it true that the FIA doesn't conduct any official technical scrutineering on the cars during the practice sessions?

Is it not a curious thing, really, how much freedom we truly possess when we step behind the wheel? One might ponder whether there are any actual limits at all, or if the road simply offers itself up to our whims, allowing us to drive exactly as we please, whenever the mood strikes us.

Does anyone truly possess the insight to know what exactly was going through the minds of the drivers at Ferrari during that session?

I find myself in complete agreement with your assessment, truly. However, I cannot help but wonder—if the opportunity presented itself, why on earth didn't they push even harder when they had the chance to pull ahead? 🍿
I find myself wondering, once we have all this data at our fingertips—and surely those working within the inner circles of Formula 1 possess it as well—is there truly any pressing necessity to go through the motions of chasing that elusive fastest lap during testing sessions? If the information is already sitting there on the table, why bother with such frantic efforts just for the sake of the record itself?

graniteharbor502 said:Why would they even care about a fastest lap during testing? 🤷

Didn't they just go public?
And I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that their stock is looking a little shaky right now, too...
It’s pretty easy to see what's going on here. Sergio is probably just pushing that hype about how incredible the Ferrari is just to drive up their price tag.
Should probably ask Brutus about that; he’s always deep in those spikes.

The more I wrap my head around this whole situation, the more it looks like Ferrari's chances are basically zero.
Mercedes isn't just insanely fast; they're also ridiculously reliable.
Good grief, those guys managed to pull off enough laps in just eight days with a single Power Unit to cover basically nineteen entire races. Seriously, that’s almost the whole damn season.
So, here’s the deal with their setup: they’re planning on getting by with just two engines and two gearboxes per car for the season. That's it.

On the other hand, Ferrari looked okay, but you can't trust them as far as you can throw them.
He looked fast, sure, but only on the Softs and Mediums. It felt totally artificial.
That was just one stint on Softs. You could blame anything—weather conditions, running an empty tank, who knows? But on the Mediums? He was getting absolutely smoked by the Mečko.
While the Mercedes-Benz guys were out there absolutely shredding the track on Mediums and Softs, putting up blistering times every single time they rolled out for a decent run...

Honestly, that stupid theory isn't even funny to me. If anything, it’s actually pretty plausible.
I’m honestly expecting some massive shock from the FIA before I see anything unexpected from Ferrari.
Even with Red Bull Racing—a team you can never really count out—they looked better this time around than they did during any of the previous V6 era tests.
Even McDhon shouldn't be written off just yet. It wouldn't be a total shock if they somehow stumbled their way right into the top tier.

As for Ferrari, nothing about them looks good right now.
Reliability was a joke, the pace was non-existent, and everything else? Not exactly impressive either.
And the best part? Total radio silence. No one from Alison’s camp is out here claiming the car is top-tier, Ariverbene isn't bragging about anything, and nobody’s even whispering a word about the Power Unit.
Sergio's out there feeding the press all this hype about how amazing Ferrari is, while Vettel and Kimi are keeping it real—saying it's a decent step forward, but definitely not enough.

graniteharbor502 said:I'm with you on that—but if they could've pushed harder, why didn't they? 🍿
I mean, we see the data, and obviously the people in Formula 1 see it too. There's really no point in sweating the fastest lap during testing just for the sake of it.

Because this is exactly the amount of speed needed to let the suckers believe the hype. And the bosses right along with them.

If they had gone any faster, everyone would've seen through the act immediately.

As it stands, only the real experts have caught onto them.

Watch out when this crew starts talking;

1) Ruggedhawk20
2) The only living witness
3) The toughest guy in the Midwest

says Ferrari's speed is unreal—then you know it actually means something.

Right!?

ruggedhawk20 said:because this is just enough misinformation to make the naive fans swallow the whole story, along with the bosses themselves.

If they had been faster sooner, wouldn't everyone have seen right through them?

As it stands, only the true experts have caught on.

Just consider if this group;

1) Ruggedhawk20
2) The sole living witness
3) The toughest guy in the rural Midwest

claims that Ferrari's speed is unrealistic—then there is some actual weight to those words, isn't there?

Don't you agree!?

Everyone would have seen through them if they were, what, actually fast? Why on earth would they hide that?

@tibi
I walked away with an entirely different impression after following most of the testing developments closely. Even drivers from other teams are mentioning that the Mercedes-Benz cars and the Ferrari cars are the fastest out there. My sense is that Mercedes-Benz is still leading the pack, but Ferrari has certainly closed the gap.

graniteharbor502 said:Why on earth would their primary objective be setting a blistering lap time during testing? 🤷

Because that is simply the routine they follow every single year, isn't it? 🙂
And perhaps it is because they are absolutely terrified of a boss demanding results when there is nothing to show for it; honestly, it's just the same old story you see with these American teams.🙂

Hey, king, if I recall correctly—and I might be slightly misremembering my own thoughts here—you were quite adamant during the last pre-season that Ferrari was sitting somewhere around fourth in the pecking order 👍

graniteharbor502 said:Why would they even care about chasing a fastest lap during testing? 🤷

Joza explained.

graniteharbor502 said:Why on earth was Ferrari giving up on that final sector when they were sitting on Ultrasoft tires? They had purple sectors one and two in the bag, so what was the logic there?

What’s the mystery here? They hauled away just enough to secure those top two spots without showing their full hand. Honestly? It was a nearly perfect tactical play.
A tenth of a second difference? That would have been a masterclass. Instead, they finished just two-tenths off the pace. What happened there?
Perfectly planned. Perfectly executed.
Uncharacteristic for those Italian racing teams.

ruggedhawk20 said:He says Ferrari's speed is unreal—and that carries some weight, doesn't it?

I’d put it this way: it’s not that Ferrari is unrealistically fast, it's that Mercedes-Benz is unrealistically slow.

stormybadger8 said:Didn't they just go public?
And if I recall correctly, their stock performance hasn't been exactly stellar lately...
It wouldn't surprise me if Sergio is feeding this narrative about Ferrari being ultra-competitive just to pump up their share price...
We should probably ask ruggedhawk20 about that; he lives for this kind of speculation.

Regarding all of that, though, Ferrari's chances look extremely slim to me...
Mercedes isn't just incredibly fast; they are also insanely reliable...
I mean, they managed to pull off laps equivalent to 19 full races using just one engine in eight days—that's basically an entire season's worth of running.
At this rate, two engines and two gearboxes per car should easily last them the whole season.

On the other hand, Ferrari looked decent, but certainly not reliable.
They seemed quick, but only during the SS and US tests, and even then, it felt artificial...
That was only once on Soft tires, which could easily be attributed to weather conditions or running with a light fuel load, etc. On the Medium, they were lagging badly behind Mercedes...
Meanwhile, Mercedes were consistently putting up blistering times on both Mediums and Softs every single time they hit the track for a decent run.

All in all, that Goofy theory is completely ridiculous; it’s almost laughable.
I’m actually expecting a serious surprise from FI, rather than from Ferrari.
Maybe even from Red Bull, which you can never count out—they looked better than good this time around compared to previous tests in this V6 era...
Even McDonald's shouldn't get too cocky; it wouldn't be a shock if they somehow stumbled into the top tier.

As for Ferrari, nothing looks promising.
Reliability wasn't impressive, and the pace was mediocre at best...
Most importantly, there's zero noise from Alison claiming the car is top-tier, nor is Ariverbene bragging, and nobody is saying anything positive regarding the PU...
It's just Sergio talking up the "super Ferrari" in the media, while Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Räikkönen are describing it as a decent, yet insufficient, step forward...

After the IPO, the stock was a bit of a fiasco; at one point, it was trading at nearly half its initial value. The issue is that Ferrari inherited a massive debt from FCA (nearly $2 billion), and investors aren't seeing the sales growth that Serra promised (they're currently selling fewer than 8,000 units annually). Serra believes the right path for Ferrari is to push past the 10,000 units per year mark...

Everyone knows what happens when a market becomes oversaturated...

I'm not a fan of the direction Ferrari is taking. That doesn't mean they won't be successful, but it feels like they're manipulating the market. It's something a luxury brand really shouldn't be doing...

I honestly don't get why Ferrari would bother trying to impress anyone during these tests. Nobody actually expects them to be faster than Mercedes in 2016 anyway. We’re heading into a season where 99% of people will just assume Mercedes takes the title again, so what's the point? Ferrari playing chicken with some little tricks just to look fast during testing for two weeks? It's pointless.
Ferrari just has their specific testing program and that's that. To be fair, everyone else is running basically the same schedule, except for Mercedes and maybe a bit of Red Bull.

What kind of stock price hike are you going to achieve in two weeks before the season starts just by showing off some testing results?
FCA isn't in such deep trouble that they'd act this desperate... As for Ferrari the manufacturer, I think they've decided to bump production up to 10,000 cars, which actually isn't a small number. They’re staying relatively true to themselves—finally, one brand that won't pivot to making an SUV.😁
Ferrari could easily sell 50,000 cars if they actually wanted to...

The power ratio is going to stay about the same; at the end of the day, there hasn't been any massive rule change.
Ferrari probably decided to take more risks than the other teams because they were relatively convincing last season and figured they had the room to be a bit more radical. But catching up 0.7-0.8s per lap is just impossible.
My take is they'll be convincingly second again, maybe trailing by about 0.5s per lap. Williams is a tiny outfit and they're only looking good because the big teams were bad—actually, they're still bad. I expect Red Bull to blow past them this year, while FI will be fighting Williams and maybe Toro Rosso.

I honestly don't follow your logic. Ferrari is incredibly fast; this isn't some performance for sponsors or anything of the sort. In truth, Ferrari is actually masking just how much raw speed they possess. You'll see that myself and fortinbras are correct quite soon.
All this talk about Mercedes, this and that... what is wrong with you people? The only thing I find interesting regarding Mercedes is that Lewis Hamilton's race pace was faster than Rosberg's on Rosberg's own track!

Everyone keeps claiming Ferrari was running on soft tires while Mercedes wasn't. Am I really the only one who realized there aren't significant speed gaps between the different tire compounds anymore?

Once Sebastian Vettel is breathing down Lewis Hamilton's neck as early as Melbourne, everyone is going to have to eat their words—Goofy, Presvetl, and the rest of you.

Honestly, some of the nonsense being said here is just pure chaos. 😁 It feels like Ferrari hasn't been driving "glory laps" ever since Ariverbene lost his cool and told them they need to run heavier fuel loads if necessary. He basically called out the habit of faking pace during testing just to disappear come Saturday and Sunday.

And then there’s all this talk about having to please the head of SM... Well, he isn't Montezemolo. That guy wasn't afraid to hand out pink slips to the old crew the second he realized they were just playing games. His mandate was clear: he wants Ferrari sitting at the top of the podium in Australia. Not during testing, but in Australia. Do they actually have the pace to take first place? Not quite, at least not on the Barcelona circuit. But they're getting close, and remember, Barcelona is a track where Mercedes used to absolutely dominate, even before the era of these V6 engines.

Anyway, a few different analyses have concluded that Ferrari's race pace during testing was only 0.02 seconds behind Mercedes. Last year, that gap was a full second. I'll let you guys draw your own conclusions from that.

To build on what my colleague was saying, Lewis Hamilton put in an incredible race simulation, especially during that final stint, but Kimi Räikkönen was actually the one posting the best times leading up to it. Also, Sebastian Vettel gave an interview to Rai yesterday, and I have to say, I've never seen him look quite so optimistic. Only 10 days left until the first practice session! 🎉

mellowtiger83 said:Everyone keeps arguing about how Ferrari was on softs while Mercedes stayed on hards, but am I really the only one who realized there isn't much of a massive speed gap between the compounds anymore?

Honestly, there’s zero difference between the ultrasoft and the medium...
Look, if one car is consistently half a second slower on mediums, then it’s obviously going to be faster on softs, supersoft, or hard tires too. There's basically no difference between them at that point. 🙂🤣

mellowtiger83 said:And when Vettel finally retires... Absolute garbage. Once Lewis Hamilton hits the track in Melbourne, everyone’s going to be tightening their belts and playing it safe—Goofy, ruggedhawk20, and the rest of that crowd.

That bolded part is the bottom line... and honestly, that’s about as far as Ferrari's ever going to get.
What are the odds of Lewis Hamilton actually beating Kimi Räikkönen or Sebastian Vettel? Literally zero. None.

I just took a quick look at what most of the betting houses are saying...
You’re telling me Kimi is getting the same shot—if not less—at the title than Alonso? Honestly, that says everything you need to know. 😉

ruggedhawk20 said:basically, this is just enough nonsense to make the suckers swallow the whole story—along with the boss.

If they’d been faster, everyone would've seen through them immediately.

But nope, only the "experts" caught on this time.

Watch out if this crew here;

1) Presvetl
2) The only living witness
3) The toughest guy from the Midwest

says Ferrari's speed is unreal—then you know it actually means something.

Right!?

We should probably add one more to the list:

4) This guy from the suburbs—the highly esteemed Takaj Vidimise.

So, look, if four forum titans say Ferrari is bluffing, then it's gotta be true, right?

Except it's not. Some people still choose to believe a guy with Rosberg's dad as his avatar.

stormybadger8 said:haha, there’s absolutely zero difference between the ultrasoft and the medium...
And if one car is consistently half a second slower than the other on mediums, then sure, it’ll definitely be faster on the S-u, SS, or US because, hey, there’s no difference between tires, right? 🙂🤣

That bolded part is the kicker... that’s basically the absolute ceiling for Ferrari.
As for the chances of Lewis Hamilton finding himself at the tail end of the pack behind Kimi Räikkönen or Sebastian Vettel? Honestly, they're practically non-existent...

I actually jumped on to see what the betting shops are saying...
And you can see that they're giving Kimi Räikkönen equal or even lower odds for the title than Fernando Alonso, which really tells you everything you need to know. 😉

So, STR clocked a 1:24.8 (Kimi Räikkönen's time) on medium tires, which probably means STR using that old Ferrari engine is just as fast as the brand new Ferrari. 😲 Or you could try twisting the logic to suggest that if Sebastian Vettel ends up being a full second slower this year, it's somehow the car's fault. 🍿

The betting shops say... Well, last year the betting shops gave Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso better odds than the Ferrari duo, so we ended up watching a completely different race altogether.

Just chill out and relax, we still have 10 days to go.🎉

copperdrifter26 said:So STR clocked a 1:24.8 (Kimi's pace) on medium tires, which basically means STR with that old Ferrari engine is just as fast as the current Ferrari. 😲

And why would that even be that weird?
STR has a damn good car, and decent drivers too... they just had a garbage engine last year.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the STR duo regularly slaps Kimi in races, or even snatches a decent amount of wins...
I mean, when STR last ran an old Ferrari engine like that, Vettel was literally beating Hamilton and Alonso in the same ☕
And I expect the same from little Verstappen; besides, STR's car and crew are way better now than they were back then. 😉

Not trying to be a contrarian, just saying what I see. 😉
The main difference between me and the "good" Ferrari fans (the new batch of Vettel supporters) is that I don't get hit by preseason euphoria every year with rumors about having the greatest car ever built.
But hey, I won't be hit by the depression and the urge to trash the competition until maybe race two or three...
If Vettel had a car capable of fighting Hamilton, we’d definitely take the title, but the problem is we probably won't see that for a long time—at least not at Ferrari...

Unfortunately, Ferrari is in a massive hole right now, and there's no magic wand to fix it.
Don't expect anything to happen unless some absolute miracle occurs...
After a constant downward spiral since 2005 and ten years of total disorganization and sloppy management, the team suddenly thinks they can just become the No. 1 team on the grid again.
And they think it'll happen just because they got Ariverbene and Alison... that's not happening on its own. 😉
It wouldn't work even if they signed Newey and all the best mechanics and engineers from Red Bull + Brawn, let alone this current setup...

So, Tibi, when exactly did STR beat Kimi last year? I’m trying to follow the logic here. How is STR going to be anywhere near Ferrari's pace using last year's engine that's down by at least 30 horsepower? That deficit alone accounts for about half a second back in Los Angeles! And let's talk about the car itself—STR basically rushed a makeshift chassis together for testing because they ran out of time to build it properly. Meanwhile, Ferrari spent the entire last season putting their car through the wind tunnel via Haas. You're talking nonsense. STR is going to be trailing Ferrari by at least seven-hundredths of a second in Melbourne.

I won't even touch your second point; we'll just have to wait and see, and honestly, none of us can predict how big that gap will actually be. It's pretty obvious Sebastian saw a reason to jump ship from Red Bull + Brawn to join Ferrari. As for the idea that every talented engineer wouldn't want to help Ferrari... well, that's not an engineering issue. The real problem was the leadership, which functioned more like a political party than a racing team. The issue was Fry and Tombazis; even Newey gave them a "strange..." look when reporters asked him why those two specifically landed the most vital roles at Ferrari while Aldo Costa was basically left out in the cold.

It is pretty wild to think that that same Aldo Costa ended up over at Mercedes, serving as the lead designer for the most dominant cars in NASCAR history.

Anyway, we'll find out if Vettel made the move to Ferrari because he was tired of being schooled by his teammate, or if it's because this Ferrari actually has a fighting chance against Merk this season.

Regarding Vettel, he made it very clear in yesterday's interview with Rai that the car is a massive step forward in every single department. He's expecting at least a podium in Australia, maybe even a win, and then a shot at the title. I love the confidence, really I do, but there is absolutely no way he beats Lewis if the cars are performing on equal footing. Let's just hang tight for another ten days and see what happens...

Man, watching Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg pull off that drag race is just something else! 😁

stormybadger8 said:I actually took a moment to check in on what the major bookmakers are saying...
And you're telling me they’re giving Kimi the same odds—or even fewer—to take the title than Alonso? Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know about the current landscape? 😉

So, what are the oddsmakers projecting for Vettel? 🍿
I've been looking over the lines from one particular sportsbook (not that I'm trying to give them free advertising):
Hamilton 1.6
Rosberg 4
Vettel 4.5
Raikkonen 41
Alonso 51 and so on.

And here are the odds for the Constructors' Championship:
Mercedes 1.15
Ferrari 5
Red Bull 23
While this Toro Rosso team you seem to praise so highly is sitting at a massive 501.

Morning. There's no way STR is taking the Constructors' Championship this year. 🤣
I said what I said, and I wasn't even drinking when I said it. 😬

But yeah, I'm sure seeing Verstappen and Sainz dominate is going to rub a lot of people the wrong way...
Last year's Ferrari Power Unit was actually solid, definitely miles ahead of the Renault...
And STR has a great chassis... so they can at best be a whole lot better than last season.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Verstappen and Sainz are out there making fools of Massa and Bottas. 😁