Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

James Phillips92 said:Sure, prisoners can make decent soldiers, but recruiting the mentally ill? That’s usually just a recipe for endangering your own troops.

It’s essentially the same group of people we're talking about.
When someone cold-bloodedly executes five people, how can we possibly argue that they aren't mentally unstable? As such, they pose a massive risk to their own men—though it would be a real service to humanity if they just focused on eliminating the monsters surrounding them instead—and, most importantly, to the civilian populations living under occupation.

bluemason3 said:I couldn't track down the 2017 financial report, but honestly, it doesn't matter where the money comes from. There isn't an environmental group in America that wouldn't protest those kinds of installations on their turf, so the funding source is pretty much irrelevant.

If they didn't speak up, that’s when things would actually start looking suspicious and make you wonder if there was some hidden agenda at play.

Think of it like a football team aiming for a win; they're just doing their job, whether they're backed by billionaires from Dubai, Moscow, or Berlin. It only becomes a problem if they start throwing the game.

But if they know for a fact that Russia is footing the bill, then yeah, you’ve definitely got a massive problem on your hands.

Jessica Peterson2 said:It’s essentially the same group of people we're talking about.
When someone cold-bloodedly executes five people, how can we possibly argue that they aren't mentally unstable? As such, they pose a massive risk to their own men—though it would be a real service to humanity if they just focused on eliminating the monsters surrounding them instead—and, most importantly, to the civilian populations living under occupation.

That isn't enough to qualify as mental illness, unless you count personality disorders like psychopathy as part of it.

hiddeneagle98 said:But if they know for a fact that Russia is footing the bill, then yeah, you’ve definitely got a massive problem on your hands.

The claim here is that "Merkelica" is footing the bill, not Russia.

Just because Russia sees certain local environmental agendas as serving their interests doesn't mean those groups are actually working for them. Sometimes interests just happen to align.

It’s like how the oil lobby benefited from Fukushima, the current tensions surrounding nuclear power, or the oil wars—it doesn't mean they orchestrated those events.

I don't follow the environmental scene closely enough to be an expert, but so far, this association has maintained a pretty positive image with the public. I wouldn't throw stones without actual evidence.

Besides, by definition, every NGO has some sort of funding source. Truly self-sufficient organizations are rare. Criticizing them for having backers is a slippery slope toward a closed-off, dictatorial way of thinking.

Jessica Peterson2 said:It’s essentially the same group of people we're talking about.
When someone cold-bloodedly executes five people, how can we possibly argue that they aren't mentally unstable? As such, they pose a massive risk to their own men—though it would be a real service to humanity if they just focused on eliminating the monsters surrounding them instead—and, most importantly, to the civilian populations living under occupation.

Back during the war here in the States in the nineties, we had former convicts serving in the military. For the most part, they were the types who were ready to fight and actually followed orders—they respected their officers.

bluemason3 said:The claim here is that "Merkelica" is footing the bill, not Russia.

Just because Russia sees certain local environmental agendas as serving their interests doesn't mean those groups are actually working for them. Sometimes interests just happen to align.

It’s like how the oil lobby benefited from Fukushima, the current tensions surrounding nuclear power, or the oil wars—it doesn't mean they orchestrated those events.

I don't follow the environmental scene closely enough to be an expert, but so far, this association has maintained a pretty positive image with the public. I wouldn't throw stones without actual evidence.

Besides, by definition, every NGO has some sort of funding source. Truly self-sufficient organizations are rare. Criticizing them for having backers is a slippery slope toward a closed-off, dictatorial way of thinking.

Are you saying an NGO can criticize whoever they want, but nobody is allowed to question them? That just moves us toward the same centralized, dictatorial mindset—where the NGO, or whoever the NGO is serving, becomes untouchable.

James Phillips92 said:Are you saying an NGO can criticize whoever they want, but nobody is allowed to question them? That just moves us toward the same centralized, dictatorial mindset—where the NGO, or whoever the NGO is serving, becomes untouchable.

It’s almost as if their dogmas are considered sacred, because questioning them might somehow jeopardize the very existence and purpose of the organization itself! 🙂

And I guess that ultimately results in even higher unemployment rates for the highly specialized experts who end up leading these organizations. 😬

James Phillips92 said:Are you saying an NGO can criticize whoever they want, but nobody is allowed to question them? That just moves us toward the same centralized, dictatorial mindset—where the NGO, or whoever the NGO is serving, becomes untouchable.

And that’s the point. 😁

So, I was just scrolling through this new deep dive from the Economist about how the Russian economy is actually holding up, and honestly, man, it’s kind of a trip, isn't it? You look at all the headlines and you think, "No way they're still breathing," but then you read this stuff and realize everything is just... weirdly complicated. It’s like watching a car drive toward a cliff while the engine somehow starts running on pure spite and sheer chaos, you know what I mean? They’ve got all these weird economic pivots happening, trying to dodge sanctions and keep the whole machine from seizing up, and you have to wonder if it's actually working or if they're just painting over the rust and calling it a luxury finish. Is it a miracle, or is it just a massive, slow-motion bubble waiting to pop? Who even knows anymore? It’s wild.

So, I was just scrolling through this piece in the Economist—you know how they love their deep dives—about Konstantin Sonin, and man, it really gets you thinking about the absolute mess we’re looking at. It’s one of those articles that makes you want to pour a double bourbon and stare out a window for an hour, honestly. You read these intellectuals dissecting the geopolitical wreckage, and you can't help but wonder if anyone actually has a handle on the steering wheel anymore, or if we're all just hurtling toward a brick wall at ninety miles an hour? The whole thing touches on how much the global landscape has shifted under our feet, especially with everything going on involving Russia and Putin, and how that ripple effect is hitting everyone from high-level policy makers to the guy just trying to pay his rent in Chicago. It’s heavy stuff, really. You start wondering, does any of this macro-economic maneuvering actually protect the average person, or is it all just a giant game of chess played by people who don't realize the board is on fire? It’s pretty cynical when you get down to it, but then again, maybe being cynical is the only sane response left in this crazy world, right? Anyway, I couldn't stop thinking about the implications for the US economy and how much we rely on these fragile international structures that seem to be cracking right before our eyes. Just a lot to chew on while you're waiting for your coffee to kick in.

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So, look, this whole stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine war? It’s a massive headache for Russia, even if it’s actually opening some doors for Ukraine. I mean, isn't that just perfect? It gives Ukraine the breathing room they desperately need to rebuild their military, which—if things go right—could eventually kick Russia right out of those occupied territories. Because here’s the thing: sure, Vladimir Putin might be holding all the political cards right now, but let's get real about the Russian economy... it’s just not built to handle major structural shifts without cracking. Like, can you even imagine? Even if the Russian economy manages to limp through these sanctions in the short term, there's no way they can keep funding this whole war machine while also trying to keep the standard of living from tanking for regular Americans—I mean, for people back home. You can't run a massive war effort and maintain a decent quality of life at the same time; the math just doesn't add up, does it?

When people start chewing over the massive headaches facing Vladimir Putin, they usually get all hung up on the political roadblocks, right? But honestly, if you look closely, there’s barely a hint—if there's even a whisper—of some massive internal meltdown or a full-blown grassroots uprising brewing on the horizon. I mean, just look at the sheer scale of the police state and those security forces over in Russia; when the government has its thumb firmly pressed down on the entire legal system like that, even the smallest little protest becomes a dangerous gamble for anyone involved. And sure, everyone says Putin's inner circle is secretly fuming about the war, the targeted sanctions hitting their pockets, and the fact that the country is basically getting kicked out of the global economy, but let's be real—do these guys actually have the guts or the experience to pull a fast one? Not a chance.

So, here’s the real kicker for Putin: he’s stuck in this impossible bind where his war machine demands constant momentum, yet all those Western sanctions are basically forcing his entire economy to run in reverse. It’s a total mess, really. You look at the data from the Finnish Development Bank and it’s honestly staggering—Russian imports for things like heavy machinery and mechanical gear tanked by about 40% in June, while electrical equipment and vehicles saw even steeper drops, sliding by 60% and 65% respectively compared to that pre-war baseline from late 2021 and early 2022. And don't even get me started on their domestic manufacturing, which has just completely cratered in those same sectors. It’s like the whole engine is seizing up. You can actually see the cracks forming in real-time, too; the sudden, sharp decline in the use of high-tech ballistic and cruise missiles by Russian forces is a massive red flag, isn't it? It shows just how much they've hit a wall with their production capacity, even when they're pushing everything they've got to the absolute limit. I mean, word is they’ve even resorted to cannibalizing their own aircraft fleets just to scavenge spare parts because the sanctions have totally choked off their ability to get the maintenance and equipment they actually need to stay in the air. It's getting desperate out there.

Honestly, we haven't even felt the real sting of these sanctions yet, you know? Like, sure, high oil and gas prices make it look like any dip in Russian production is being totally offset by skyrocketing costs, but don't let that fool you—I really don't see this lasting forever (even if everyone else is arguing otherwise). Europe is finally cutting the cord on Russian exports, and the numbers back it up; according to the European Central Bank, gas imports from Russia plummeted by 65% year-over-year this past June. And look, even if the hit to Russia's GDP hasn't been quite as catastrophic as the doom-and-gloom experts were predicting six months ago, the outlook is still pretty grim. The IMF is projecting a 6% drop in Russia's GDP this year, followed by another 3.5% slide next year. When you consider that we basically invited this economic mess upon ourselves, those numbers are just straight-up terrifying, aren't they?

Honestly, if you want to fix this whole broken economy, there’s really only one way out: lean hard into "parallel imports." You know, that whole gray market thing where you grab goods through middlemen without needing some big corporation's permission? It’s basically bypass surgery for trade. We need to double down on dealing with China and all those other non-Western players too. Back in March, the administration started tweaking the rules to give small-time retailers a fighting chance to bring in products without begging the brand owners for a green light—unless, of course, that brand is still busy doing business in Russia. By June, they stopped playing around and actually turned that shift into law. Is it perfect? Who knows. But hey, at least we're finally trying something besides waiting for permission from people who don't care about us.

Look, let’s be real here—smuggling goods under the radar isn't going to cut it if Russia actually wants to pull through this. You can't run a modern economy on black market side hustles alone; you need actual people and massive corporations willing to sink real capital into the ground there. But honestly? Any new investors looking at that landscape are basically walking straight into a minefield. Over the last twenty years, we've watched these massive domestic lobbies grow into absolute monsters across pretty much every major industry. These guys are pros at blocking Western imports and capital, so you really think they're just going to roll over when new players try to move in from different sources? Not a chance. Over the years, Putin's administration has been busy cooking up regulations and building out institutions designed specifically to gatekeep everything. We're talking about stuff like broad bans on food exports from the US and Europe, rules that basically choke off international trade and make it nearly impossible for outsiders to even touch the market. And why would they stop? Because the ministers, the bureaucrats, and the big-shot CEOs of those state-run giants have been getting fat off the kickbacks and fees that come from having zero competition. It's a closed loop. Now, Putin shouldn't exactly go tapping these same people on the shoulder to fix the system, because let's face it, they're the ones profiting most from the status quo. But at this point, does he even have a choice?

And honestly, here's another massive headache for Putin: his whole regime is just way too damn expensive to run. For years now, he’s been blurring those lines between the government and big business, right? You’ve got all these bureaucrats—including the guys running the military—getting filthy rich while simultaneously pulling the strings at state agencies and private firms. Take Denis Manturov, the newly minted defense industry czar; the guy is basically the wealthiest member of the administration. Reliable reports put his net worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars, which is wild considering he spent almost his entire career as an executive for state-owned defense contractors. But hey, that’s how you become a multi-millionaire in Putin's Russia. Trying to ramp up military production by handing out these lavish perks hasn't worked even when the economy was drowning in cash, so you'd think it would be totally impossible now, wouldn't you?

The high-level bureaucrats and managers at these state-run giants expect massive payouts for their "hard work." And get this—the government is about to drop the list of construction firms that'll bag the contracts to rebuild those Ukrainian cities leveled by the invading forces. But let's be real, there's zero doubt those contracts are going straight to his inner circle of buddies. If the history of those old conflicts taught us anything, it's that state-funded post-war reconstruction is nothing but a gold mine for a handful of hand-picked favorites.

Looking at the long game, Putin’s real nightmares might actually be the anti-war political energy brewing among the youth and the general population getting fed up as their incomes tank. But then again, a revolution can simmer for years, maybe even decades, before it boils over. Right now, though, his biggest issue is that the system he built is fundamentally broken and resistant to the exact kind of reforms needed to pivot the economy toward a full-on war footing. Russia simply can't afford to keep bleeding money to these oligarch-owned companies, but those companies have never operated without being showered in cash like this. So, it really means that even if there's a ceasefire, despite Russia holding onto large chunks of Ukraine, the win actually goes to Ukraine.

Apparently

http://www.twitter.com/newkc14/statu...Cwnd2qr78rAAAA

Kadyrov forces allegedly shot mobilized guys from the Department of Natural Resources after they refused to head out toward Kherson 😠.

View on twitter

So, Russia just announced they're building two new plants specifically to repair their armored divisions. They're already a few months behind schedule, and honestly, even if they actually manage to get them up and running... well, we'll see.

Now, if you want to be a total cynic, you could argue that all those claims about General Dynamics finishing up T-90s—you know, the ones they used to keep hidden under tarps around the factory grounds—were nothing more than pure propaganda. But then again, there's the other side of the coin: the reality that sanctions have seriously choked their production lines. Plus, you've got those satellite images and the breakdowns from Western military experts basically confirming what we suspected—that most of those "reserve" tank stocks sitting in military depots (which is really just a fancy way of saying scrap metal graveyards) are shot. Like, over 60% of them are probably beyond any hope of being fixed.

Just my two cents... 🕺

James Phillips92 said:Are you saying an NGO can criticize whoever they want, but nobody is allowed to question them? That just moves us toward the same centralized, dictatorial mindset—where the NGO, or whoever the NGO is serving, becomes untouchable.

Suggesting someone acts out of interest rather than conviction isn't criticism.
As bluemason3 was trying to point out, any legitimate green party, non-profit organization, or environmental initiative should be criticizing anything that impacts the environment. If they aren't speaking up or taking action, you have every right to question their motives.

How much were they pumping out before the sanctions kicked in? Maybe 100-200 units a year, right?

Apparently, all those high-tech weapons they have lack the production capacity needed to keep up with current combat maintenance. Plus, they supposedly struggle with scaling up or repurposing lines quickly enough.

bluemason3 said:How much were they pumping out before the sanctions kicked in? Maybe 100-200 units a year, right?

Apparently, all those high-tech weapons they have lack the production capacity needed to keep up with current combat maintenance. Plus, they supposedly struggle with scaling up or repurposing lines quickly enough.

The assembly line capacity should be sitting around 200 tanks per year. But, thanks to that legendary Russian corruption and all the headaches getting their hands on high-end Western tech (even though sanctions weren't really respected—I mean, clearly nobody was tracking who was actually buying what if you see footage of Raytheon thermal cameras from post-2014 being used in tanks that technically shouldn't have had them), they’ve only managed to push out about 120-140 units annually.

And keep in mind, those numbers include their export capacity, not just what they need for themselves. (Which would be roughly 90 tanks a year for export).

https://www.defensenews.com/land/201...r-t-90s-tanks/

James Phillips92 said:Back during the war here in the States in the nineties, we had former convicts serving in the military. For the most part, they were the types who were ready to fight and actually followed orders—they respected their officers.

I previously mentioned that we are dealing with a total monster—the leader of a gang of villains who personally took part in the murder of five people.
I honestly can't decide if "respecting the chain of command" is actually an asset when you're dealing with that specific breed of individual. 🤷

CNN reported that about 419,000 people fled Russia during the first half of 2022—that’s double what we saw the year before.

For the first time in recent history, more people are packing their bags to leave than are actually moving in. The U.S. Census Bureau didn't break down the specific nationalities of everyone heading out.

Usually, the country pulls in immigrants from former Soviet states. But this year, the whole trend flipped. About 369,000 people headed out to those former Soviet territories, while only 295,000 moved in. Interestingly, nearly 80,000 of them picked Ukraine as their destination.

Ever since the invasion of Ukraine kicked off in February, we've seen an exodus not just from the war zone itself, but from Russia too, according to dpa.

It’s mostly opposition folks fleeing, along with a massive wave of young, educated professionals looking for work after all the Western companies pulled out.

Huge communities have already popped up in Armenia and Georgia, mainly because it’s way easier for Russians to get through the door there.

In just the first six months, the Russian population dropped by a total of 480,000, though part of that is just due to the natural decline in population.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Suggesting someone acts out of interest rather than conviction isn't criticism.
As bluemason3 was trying to point out, any legitimate green party, non-profit organization, or environmental initiative should be criticizing anything that impacts the environment. If they aren't speaking up or taking action, you have every right to question their motives.

When people fight against building a Cheniere Energy terminal, you have to look at their actual reasoning. Sure, they'll spin these tales about how it'll mess with ocean temperatures or drive away certain fish species—but let’s be real, that’s just noise. Now we can see the true motivations behind their opposition to LNG.

Jessica Peterson2 said:I previously mentioned that we are dealing with a total monster—the leader of a gang of villains who personally took part in the murder of five people.
I honestly can't decide if "respecting the chain of command" is actually an asset when you're dealing with that specific breed of individual. 🤷

Trust me, someone like that respects their superior more than any sane person ever would. If the commander says to execute a prisoner, they’ll do it without blinking—but if the order is to keep them alive, you can bet that prisoner will survive and nobody will even dare look at them sideways. At the end of the day, whatever bad things that individual does, the responsibility lands squarely on the commander.

Larry Walker24 said:CNN reported that about 419,000 people fled Russia during the first half of 2022—that’s double what we saw the year before.

For the first time in recent history, more people are packing their bags to leave than are actually moving in. The U.S. Census Bureau didn't break down the specific nationalities of everyone heading out.

Usually, the country pulls in immigrants from former Soviet states. But this year, the whole trend flipped. About 369,000 people headed out to those former Soviet territories, while only 295,000 moved in. Interestingly, nearly 80,000 of them picked Ukraine as their destination.

Ever since the invasion of Ukraine kicked off in February, we've seen an exodus not just from the war zone itself, but from Russia too, according to dpa.

It’s mostly opposition folks fleeing, along with a massive wave of young, educated professionals looking for work after all the Western companies pulled out.

Huge communities have already popped up in Armenia and Georgia, mainly because it’s way easier for Russians to get through the door there.

In just the first six months, the Russian population dropped by a total of 480,000, though part of that is just due to the natural decline in population.

Word is there's quite a few of them in Mexico City.

James Phillips92 said:When people fight against building a Cheniere Energy terminal, you have to look at their actual reasoning. Sure, they'll spin these tales about how it'll mess with ocean temperatures or drive away certain fish species—but let’s be real, that’s just noise. Now we can see the true motivations behind their opposition to LNG.

Look, my friend—just to be brief—of course nobody is against diversifying our energy sources, but to flatly dismiss legitimate concerns as "stories for the naive" is almost rude. I am all for exploring various energy options, truly—but have you ever actually been out by the Omišalj Terminal? To start with, the crew there was sourcing bottom-of-the-barrel equipment—much like that decommissioned refinery over in Urinj—which leads to nothing but headaches later on. That terminal was so incredibly noisy it was unbearable; they claimed nothing could be done about it, yet they eventually ran an emergency procurement to upgrade the gear (I actually know someone who worked on the impact studies—they were completely ignored in favor of "politics" over expertise). Once they finally upgraded the equipment, the noise levels dropped by half. Furthermore, the Gulf of Mexico region is already overburdened with various—more or less failing—energy plants, so no one can imply that our opposition is some kind of paid agenda or nonsense. If you want to suggest putting the next LNG plant in Omiš, Makarska, or Vodice... well, then you might find some real animosity toward those solutions.