Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

It seems to me they’re still agonizing over which version of the announcement to release. The shortlist appears to be down to two options: one involving mobilization orders, and another that opens with: following a long and grueling illness, the President has passed away... We’ll have to wait until morning to see which script becomes reality. After all, waiting until dawn is always more prudent than deciding in the evening.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It seems to me they’re still agonizing over which version of the announcement to release. The shortlist appears to be down to two options: one involving mobilization orders, and another that opens with: following a long and grueling illness, the President has passed away... We’ll have to wait until morning to see which script becomes reality. After all, waiting until dawn is always more prudent than deciding in the evening.

I assume they’ve already got all those different versions recorded and ready to go just in case. 😁

With Putin out of the picture and some protests breaking out over in Chechnya... it could be an interesting night.
Then again, it might end up being nothing at all.

wiredseal7 said:The other theory is that it’s just what the Americans intercepted while it was en route to Yemen.
But people were already whispering even earlier about Sudanese ammo plants shipping gear over to Ukraine.

The real kicker—and it's almost funny—is how much everyone mocks Russia for buying drones from Iranians (which, let's face it, are turning out to be pretty sophisticated and dangerous, much to the Ukrainians' dismay), while the Ukrainians—or rather, the British colonialists acting on their behalf—are busy scavenging scrap metal across Africa.

This specific bit was about 82mm mortar rounds.

View on twitter

What kind of "scrap" are we talking about if they were manufactured in 2022?
It's not like the West can just whip up a ton of 122mm shells on demand; Bulgaria is running at absolute max capacity, and Romania has kicked their old production lines back into gear, but even then, they're mostly geared for 152mm.

Kate Cook27 said:So, much of Vladimir the Great's speech seems to be 🙄. Maybe by tomorrow we'll hear about some new folks who "accidentally" fell out of windows.

Or maybe he was the one who took the plunge too...

We'll find out tomorrow...

If he actually shows up early in the morning, they'll probably call the whole thing the awakening east...

wiredseal7 said:The other theory is that it’s just what the Americans intercepted while it was en route to Yemen.
But people were already whispering even earlier about Sudanese ammo plants shipping gear over to Ukraine.

The real kicker—and it's almost funny—is how much everyone mocks Russia for buying drones from Iranians (which, let's face it, are turning out to be pretty sophisticated and dangerous, much to the Ukrainians' dismay), while the Ukrainians—or rather, the British colonialists acting on their behalf—are busy scavenging scrap metal across Africa.

Look, Russians are the aggressors and Ukrainians are defending themselves. People act shocked that the world's second-strongest military is buying drones from Iran. I guess using scrap metal helps with liberating Ukraine—or maybe the Ukrainians are just trolling them for more drones 😁.

So, word on the street is Putin and Xi Jinping were on the phone for about half an hour today. Who knows if he managed to sway him or anything, but I guess the big question is how exactly that went down.

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Larry Sanchez7 said:Or maybe he was the one who took the plunge too...

We'll find out tomorrow...

If he actually shows up early in the morning, they'll probably call the whole thing the awakening east...

Honestly, Putin just met up with Dodik—they haven't seen each other in ages.

Solid piece. Putin is looking at three distinct paths here:

If you ask me, that third option is the most likely outcome.

The third path involves just wrapping this whole thing up and trying to pivot toward rebuilding strength for future conflicts. They’d pull back—let's call it a strategic "regrouping," obviously—as some massive "gesture of goodwill." They’d retreat to more defensible lines, offer a ceasefire, and then point the finger at absolutely everyone else. They’d claim the West turned its back on Russia. Suddenly, Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu is deemed unfit for duty and vanishes mysteriously, while General Valery Gerasimov faces trial for treason and sheer incompetence. Meanwhile, Putin gets patted on the back by certain world leaders for driving down global fuel and food prices. The real gamble for him in this scenario? The truth might actually sink in—that they lost the current fight and effectively mortgaged their future. If that happens, his presidency becomes incredibly vulnerable.

The real question here is, what does it actually mean to pull back and set up new defensive lines?

Get your gas masks ready, stock up on water, and make sure your bunker is secure. The atoms of the rising sun are on the move.

hollowdriver13 said:https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/stat...70599535214598

Kamil put together a really solid thread here about why Putin might theoretically call for a mobilization, but also why he probably won't see anywhere near the results he’s dreaming of. It basically boils down to the fact that the current Russian military's actual capabilities are worlds apart from what the old Soviet machine used to be.

Plus, those who are mobilized can choose prison over the army. I suppose survival chances in prison are much better than in Bakhmut or Lysychansk.

I think the main Russian problem is that morale in their military has dropped almost to zero. That's probably why they're organizing these referendums and mobilizations—to try and convince people that Russia won't just abandon them like they did in Kharkiv.

nimbleviper3 said:Get your gas masks ready, stock up on water, and make sure your bunker is secure. The atoms of the rising sun are on the move.

Yeah...

nimbletiger7 said:Plus, those who are mobilized can choose prison over the army. I suppose survival chances in prison are much better than in Bakhmut or Lysychansk.

I think the main Russian problem is that morale in their military has dropped almost to zero. That's probably why they're organizing these referendums and mobilizations—to try and convince people that Russia won't just abandon them like they did in Kharkiv.

Well, they abandoned them.
To be blunt, a significant portion were essentially wiped out by their own making—sacrificed against their will—only to be used as nothing more than cannon fodder during assaults on Ukrainian lines.

What we are seeing now is a total systemic collapse within the Russian forces.
A system simply cannot function under these conditions.

Kyle Nelson2 said:Yeah...

Is this serious or just some kind of joke?
So, we're actually talking about 7:00 AM?

Nothing came of that special announcement after all.
Looks like something's brewing behind the scenes.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It seems to me they’re still agonizing over which version of the announcement to release. The shortlist appears to be down to two options: one involving mobilization orders, and another that opens with: following a long and grueling illness, the President has passed away... We’ll have to wait until morning to see which script becomes reality. After all, waiting until dawn is always more prudent than deciding in the evening.

I had no idea Putin was expected to deliver a sermon, but reading back through this actually gave me a good laugh.🤣🤣🙏

Benjamin Taylor6 said:Solid piece. Putin is looking at three distinct paths here:

If you ask me, that third option is the most likely outcome.

The third path involves just wrapping this whole thing up and trying to pivot toward rebuilding strength for future conflicts. They’d pull back—let's call it a strategic "regrouping," obviously—as some massive "gesture of goodwill." They’d retreat to more defensible lines, offer a ceasefire, and then point the finger at absolutely everyone else. They’d claim the West turned its back on Russia. Suddenly, Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu is deemed unfit for duty and vanishes mysteriously, while General Valery Gerasimov faces trial for treason and sheer incompetence. Meanwhile, Putin gets patted on the back by certain world leaders for driving down global fuel and food prices. The real gamble for him in this scenario? The truth might actually sink in—that they lost the current fight and effectively mortgaged their future. If that happens, his presidency becomes incredibly vulnerable.

Only problem is, you have to ask the Ukrainians too.

And they aren't budging. No ceasefire without full sovereignty within internationally recognized borders (Crimea included).

So, the second the Russian army pulls out of Ukraine, Ukraine joins NATO, and suddenly the Russian military doesn't get that chance to "regroup" and start fighting again the very next day. Unless, of course, they feel like picking a fight with NATO.

Well... looks like even Kadyrov is making some noise now. 🤣
Does he honestly believe anyone is taking him seriously? 🍿

Nancy Gomez26 said:It seems to me they’re still agonizing over which version of the announcement to release. The shortlist appears to be down to two options: one involving mobilization orders, and another that opens with: following a long and grueling illness, the President has passed away... We’ll have to wait until morning to see which script becomes reality. After all, waiting until dawn is always more prudent than deciding in the evening.

All jokes aside, though, something genuinely strange is unfolding here.

For instance, maybe Putler was banking on announcing a mobilization and having the masses cheer him on... but instead, the stock market took a hit, and most of the reaction was pretty negative...

So, perhaps the leader had a bit of second thought...

🍿