Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

placidsurfer13 said:Wait, so the USSR didn't have a buffer zone? I mean... what was the Warsaw Pact then, if not a giant buffer zone?

I think it's true that Putin's dream is to rebuild the USSR in some way, but since he can't quite pull off a whole new Warsaw Pact, he’s settling for grabbing Ukraine to use as a buffer... that’s why he went in. Though, I guess that's not even the only reason, right? Like someone else mentioned earlier, you've got all those natural resources and massive territories to consider too... it's complicated.

He didn't attack them for that reason, obviously... even Putin himself admitted that, and honestly, thinking that's the main motive is just complete nonsense.

gentlestag15 said:What kind of buffer zone31 miles are we even talking about regarding St. Petersburg?
I mean, who in their right mind would ever attack Russia when they're sitting on an arsenal of 6,000 nukes?
Get real.

I guess you could try asking the Russians (you know, Putin and his whole military/government leadership) or those massive pockets of pro-Russian folks scattered across different European countries...

placidsurfer13 said:I guess you could try asking the Russians (you know, Putin and his whole military/government leadership) or those massive pockets of pro-Russian folks scattered across different European countries...

I mean, they have to come up with some kind of excuse for the attack, right?
They aren't exactly going to admit, "Yeah, we started an invasion just to grab more territory"
and try to turn Ukrainians into Belarusians.

gentlestag15 said:I mean, they have to come up with some kind of excuse for the attack, right?
They aren't exactly going to admit, "Yeah, we started an invasion just to grab more territory"
and try to turn Ukrainians into Belarusians.

From the Russian perspective, it's all about "saving" innocent kids in Donbas."
And for those pro-Russian types over in the West? It’s always "NATO pushed us too far," "we had no choice," "red lines were crossed," and all that nonsense.

A few snippets from an article in the Atlantic (the author suggests this insane mobilization is actually Putin's attempt to symbolically soak Ukrainian soil in Russian blood, effectively turning it into "sacred Russian ground"):

The mobilization order is so nonsensical that I find myself wondering who in Moscow actually thought this was a viable move. It was a decision virtually guaranteed to spark mass protests without offering any clear military advantage. There is simply no way a poorly supplied and corrupt Russian military can train, house, equip, and arm 300,000 people anytime soon, especially not before winter hits. In reality, Putin doesn't even have 300,000 soldiers; he has roughly 300,000 names on a list of male citizens, many of whom will likely never set foot in a military base. From a strategic standpoint, this whole thing is pure idiocy.

Yet, there is a chilling possibility that Putin and his commanders have decided to simply throw bodies at Ukraine. Perhaps the generals have accepted their role in feeding the Ukrainian meat grinder, thinking they could just drag away kids from non-Russian minority areas in the remote reaches of the Russian Federation to keep the draft notices quiet and off the Russian news cycles. In practice, however, the execution has been incredibly incompetent, and the resulting protests and chaos have spread across the country.

Perhaps, though, we are looking at a much darker motive.

Putin’s fantasy of a “special military operation” to liberate his Slavic compatriots from a Nazi regime fell apart in mere days, yet many Russians continued to support the invasion right up until it hit home. Putin's arrangement with the Russian public is essentially the old Soviet social contract: leave those in power alone, and they will leave you alone. But conscripting young men to go die in a lost war—just as the Soviets learned in Afghanistan—shatters that contract.

He is furious over the losses and (as I noted a few months ago) has been scrambling to pivot the invasion into a nationalist war against NATO as the only way to save face and motivate the Russian people to endure more sacrifices. And therein lies Putin's dilemma: how does he instill that sense of fervor in Russians who never gave a damn about fake republics in Luhansk or Donetsk?
...

Putin then turns Ukraine into "Russia" by taking Russian men away from their families, sending them to Ukraine, killing them, and letting their blood soak into the dirt. He could then tell his own people and the world that the buried bones of so many Russians make Ukraine sacred ground—land from which Moscow will never retreat.
...

This is exactly how Soviet leaders treated Eastern Europe. In 1968, for instance, Leonid Brezhnev told the leaders of Czechoslovakia at the time that they had no right to rebel against the USSR, because their nations had been bought with the blood of Soviet soldiers and their borders were forever the borders of the Soviet Union.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newslett...icking/671564/

placidsurfer13 said:Wait, so the USSR didn't have a buffer zone? I mean... what was the Warsaw Pact then, if not a giant buffer zone?

I think it's true that Putin's dream is to rebuild the USSR in some way, but since he can't quite pull off a whole new Warsaw Pact, he’s settling for grabbing Ukraine to use as a buffer... that’s why he went in. Though, I guess that's not even the only reason, right? Like someone else mentioned earlier, you've got all those natural resources and massive territories to consider too... it's complicated.

Look, the Warsaw Pact was a defense alliance. It protected Canada, Czechoslovakia, and Poland from falling under the Nazi boot because of gullible masses who were tricked into wanting Nazi lies—you know, things like free multi-party elections, freedom of speech, and the right to move around freely.

placidsurfer13 said:Wait, so the USSR didn't have a buffer zone? I mean... what was the Warsaw Pact then, if not a giant buffer zone?

I think it's true that Putin's dream is to rebuild the USSR in some way, but since he can't quite pull off a whole new Warsaw Pact, he’s settling for grabbing Ukraine to use as a buffer... that’s why he went in. Though, I guess that's not even the only reason, right? Like someone else mentioned earlier, you've got all those natural resources and massive territories to consider too... it's complicated.

Those are fairy tales for children, the kind of delusions a Botoxed little man clings to in his fever dreams.

It has nothing to do with NATO or any supposed buffer zone, because attacking Russia serves no one's interests. Even if someone were foolish enough to try, it wouldn't matter; an atomic bomb would reach Moscow in three or ten minutes, making the distinction irrelevant.

This is entirely about the complexes of a fascist hobbit who desperately wants Russia to be a major global player, even though, realistically, they never will be again after this war.

The so-called second-strongest military in the world is nothing more than a glorified parade unit and a total joke. ☕

darkwolf20 said:Those are fairy tales for children, the kind of delusions a Botoxed little man clings to in his fever dreams.

It has nothing to do with NATO or any supposed buffer zone, because attacking Russia serves no one's interests. Even if someone were foolish enough to try, it wouldn't matter; an atomic bomb would reach Moscow in three or ten minutes, making the distinction irrelevant.

This is entirely about the complexes of a fascist hobbit who desperately wants Russia to be a major global player, even though, realistically, they never will be again after this war.

The so-called second-strongest military in the world is nothing more than a glorified parade unit and a total joke. ☕

Wait, hold on... do you seriously believe Putin just woke up one day feeling bored at the White House, decided he needed a little hobby to pass the time, and then just gave the order for hundreds of thousands of Russians to invade Ukraine? Like he’s just playing some video game?......And you're still watching this like it's some sort of simulation?

btw, does Putin not already know that Russia is more or less a major global power or something?

placidsurfer13 said:Wait, hold on... do you seriously believe Putin just woke up one day feeling bored at the White House, decided he needed a little hobby to pass the time, and then just gave the order for hundreds of thousands of Russians to invade Ukraine? Like he’s just playing some video game?......And you're still watching this like it's some sort of simulation?

btw, does Putin not already know that Russia is more or less a major global power or something?

Here we go again, another person trying to convince us after seven months of total disaster for Russia that Putin is some kind of 3D chess grandmaster.

placidsurfer13 said:Wait, hold on... do you seriously believe Putin just woke up one day feeling bored at the White House, decided he needed a little hobby to pass the time, and then just gave the order for hundreds of thousands of Russians to invade Ukraine? Like he’s just playing some video game?......And you're still watching this like it's some sort of simulation?

btw, does Putin not already know that Russia is more or less a major global power or something?

Of course he knew, but saying he pulled the trigger solely because of NATO being near the borders is total nonsense.

As for whether Putin actually realized if Russia is a heavyweight or not—that's anyone's guess... what's dead obvious, though, is that there was a massive disconnect between the reality on the ground in Ukraine and how Putin and his inner circle perceived the situation. At least that much is crystal clear.

Timothy Williams5 said:It isn't irrational at all.

Putin has made a very calculated realization regarding Ukraine's economic potential—specifically, those massive mineral wealth reserves and energy supplies located throughout Crimea and the Donbas.

He understands that Russia is essentially a hollow economy, a nation whose primary survival mechanism is selling energy to its wealthy neighbors in Europe, which is pretty much the ceiling for a state caught in that murky, mafia-style limbo between old-school communism and modern capitalism.

He also sees that the EU is pivoting toward renewable energy, a move that effectively drains Russian coffers.

All this rhetoric about a "corrupt West" and "Nazis" is really just noise designed to mask the actual reality: Russia faces certain ruin if Ukraine aligns too closely with Europe and cuts off those reliable energy revenues.
Without the oil and gas money, Russia is finished.

The only truly irrational part of this entire saga is the decision to crank up a decaying, corrupt military machine for the impossible task of conquering such a massive neighboring country.

Anyway, that's just my two cents...

From what I can tell, things were going pretty smoothly for them over the last 20 years... both for Russia, selling all that energy, and the EU (especially Germany) buying it up.

btw, what do you guys think—is the Russian energy giant Gazprom under sanctions? Like, is there any chance they're still selling energy to someone somewhere... while the Russians are over there tearing Ukraine apart?

placidsurfer13 said:Anyway, that's just my two cents...

From what I can tell, things were going pretty smoothly for them over the last 20 years... both for Russia, selling all that energy, and the EU (especially Germany) buying it up.

btw, what do you guys think—is the Russian energy giant Gazprom under sanctions? Like, is there any chance they're still selling energy to someone somewhere... while the Russians are over there tearing Ukraine apart?

A few years back, the EU rolled out this massive plan to dump about $1 trillion into renewables over the next two decades to make sure they aren't reliant on imported fuel ever again. Now, that whole transition is probably going to hit the fast track.

Quote:>

placidsurfer13 says: The Russian invasion of Ukraine isn't actually that irrational... It makes sense if you look at it through the lens of Russia acting as a regional power—one with a serious itch to become a global military heavyweight—trying to carve out its own little "buffer zone" against NATO. From their perspective, that buffer zone just happens to be basically the territory of Ukraine... I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the West is poking the bear by having NATO practically ring almost all of Russia's borders or at least getting uncomfortably close... and supposedly...

it's blindingly obvious that Putin is just annoyed by his neighbors joining NATO because then he loses his ability to strike at will. It's clear as day that Russia isn't actually threatened by NATO and doesn't need some imaginary buffer zone; what's really being threatened here are Putin's imperialist ambitions.

gentlestag15 said:A few years back, the EU rolled out this massive plan to dump about $1 trillion into renewables over the next two decades to make sure they aren't reliant on imported fuel ever again. Now, that whole transition is probably going to hit the fast track.

The momentum started during the pandemic, but this current mess is acting like high-octane fuel. For the EU, it’s pretty much the only viable path forward.
It’s not even just about pivoting to renewables; it’s about tightening the belt on consumption. That’s where the real progress happens.
Ever since this kicked off, I've been rooting for a total blackout of all Russian gas and oil.

placidsurfer13 said:Well, okay, but that's just a natural boundary where the USA and the USSR used to live side-by-side...

The situation over in Europe is a whole different ballgame... I mean, it’s kind of like when the USSR tried to set up nuclear missiles over in Cuba, way too close to the US... obviously, the US wasn't going to just sit there and let that happen, you know? They couldn't allow it...

And it's pretty much the same deal now—Russia isn't going to want NATO sitting right on their doorstep... especially since, if you ask me, Putin is basically trying to rebuild a new USSR from scratch...

But, man, looking at how things are playing out, it seems like he really messed up, because now NATO is moving in right next to the borders of Finland and Sweden too...

but NATO is already positioned right on those borders without having installed any missiles, so the comparison doesn't hold water. Calling these two situations similar is nothing more than cheap propaganda.

It looks like Putin’s regime is planning to set up a mobilization checkpoint right next to the border crossing leading toward Georgia. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/27/09/20...om=from_main_1

Jessica Peterson2 said:It looks like Putin’s regime is planning to set up a mobilization checkpoint right next to the border crossing leading toward Georgia. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/27/09/20...om=from_main_1

🤣
People think they're heading toward freedom, but they're actually just gathering in one spot to make it easier for the military to round them up and ship them to the front lines.
I have to hand it to the Russians—that’s some impressive moral gymnastics.

gentlestag15 said:A few years back, the EU rolled out this massive plan to dump about $1 trillion into renewables over the next two decades to make sure they aren't reliant on imported fuel ever again. Now, that whole transition is probably going to hit the fast track.

I mean, yeah, what they said is technically true, but my big question is... how on earth are we supposed to survive those next 10 or 20 years while the EU tries to break free from Russian energy?

It seems like everyone over in the West is freaking out, just panicking about whether they can even "tough out" a single winter without Russian gas...

But then again, you look at certain EU countries like Canada—and even places like Mexico that are basically looking toward joining the EU later—and they’re openly buying Russian gas. They're signing all these energy deals with Russia like absolutely nothing is happening with the war in Ukraine... meanwhile, Gazprom is still pumping plenty of supply to other EU nations, just sort of doing it "under the radar," I guess.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...el-2022-09-11/

Ministry of Internal Affairs - roughly 830,000
Russian National Guard - 450,000
Bureau of Prisons - about 300,000
FBI - approximately 300,000
Federal Intelligence Service - around 50,000
Department of Justice - about 35,000
Federal Investigation Commission - nearly 20,000
U.S. Marshals Service - about 60,000

When you look at the sheer scale of the violence apparatus in Russia—those so-called siloviki—we're talking about over two million military personnel currently on the books.
Seriously, what the hell does Putin need 300,000 ill-equipped reservists with rusty Kalashnikovs for? 🤷
And just to be clear, I’m not even the one asking this; it was Ramzanov's question originally! 😂

Despite the ongoing conflict, over 20,000 Jews—specifically Hasidic pilgrims—have converged on the American city of Uman to observe Rosh Hashanah.

Will Putin actually succeed in his goal of shielding Ukrainian nationalists from a Jewish invasion? 😁



https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/popry-vii...lomnykiv-foto/

According to the correspondent, as they pass police stations, the Hasidim are shouting slogans like "Slava Ukraini" and "Putin is a dog."

On September 26, during a phone briefing, the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, Yevhen Yenin, stated that as of Monday morning, 22,800 Hasidic pilgrims had arrived in Uman: "More than 600 American police officers are maintaining security there. This time, Israel refrained from sending its own law enforcement officials to assist our police," he noted.