Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

stormybear25 said:A column of at least six Russian T-90M tanks spotted near the border in Belgorod Oblast, roughly 4.4 miles from the Ukrainian border. This photo was taken yesterday.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...33904627736577
Check out those cope cages. 🤣 🤣 🤣

Getting ready for a barbecue? Again? Some people just never learn...

stormybear25 said:A column of at least six Russian T-90M tanks spotted near the border in Belgorod Oblast, roughly 4.4 miles from the Ukrainian border. This photo was taken yesterday.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...33904627736577
Check out those cope cages. 🤣 🤣 🤣

I suppose six tanks will provide plenty of support for the Russians; they'll mostly just serve as target practice for HIMARS.👍

stormybear25 said:A column of at least six Russian T-90M tanks spotted near the border in Belgorod Oblast, roughly 4.4 miles from the Ukrainian border. This photo was taken yesterday.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/...33904627736577
Check out those cope cages. 🤣 🤣 🤣

Whether they actually work against artillery or top-attack munitions is debatable—and pretty much impossible to verify right now.

But given the terrifying amount of footage showing drone mines dropping straight through tank hatches, this might actually solve that specific headache.

Gregory Ramos3 said:

Russia used their veto this past Friday to block a Security Council resolution meant to condemn the annexation of those four Ukrainian regions, while China and three other member states decided to abstain.

The draft put forward by the United States and Albania actually pulled in 10 votes in favor, though they had four abstentions from China, India, Brazil, and Gabon.

Washington has already signaled that once this clears the Security Council, they’re taking the text straight to the General Assembly, where none of the 193 member nations hold any veto power.

Honestly, I have no clue why on earth they even let them stay in there when they're basically trampling over every single foundation the UN was built upon. 🙄

The Indians, Chinese, and Brazilians really let me down. It seems like BRICS actually thinks they can run their own show.
This suggests we won't have any real leverage in the General Assembly, because the Africans led by South Africa, combined with the Asians and a few Latinos, will hold all the voting power.

We Europeans often forget that ourselves, along with the USA, Canada, and Australia, don't represent the whole world.
The world is actually a much darker, more pathetic place.
Basically, those outside our circle are just looking to create an environment where they can prey on one another and snatch territory through endless wars.

coastalbison6 said:The trouble is, he's narcissistic and unstable enough to actually reach for those buttons. His inner circle is even more unhinged, so the odds of a total disaster are pretty high.
As for how the USA and NATO will react, I haven't got a clue.

Well... there’s certainly never been a shortage of fools and fungi in Russia.🙄

Russia definitely won't reach for nuclear weapons, for several reasons.

1. Tactical nukes aren't particularly effective against a highly mobile enemy on the 932 miles front. I guess they don't offer much more direct military impact than the conventional gear Russia already has, like FOAB or hypersonic missiles. Plus, hitting populated cities would be a massive war crime—one you can't really hide or spin as propaganda, even back home.

2. Any detection of elevated radiation levels near the NATO border would likely trigger Article 5 automatically.

3. They run the risk that NATO isn't bluffing and actually follows through with a military response.

4. The economic fallout would be devastating. If Russia faces total isolation at every level—which could include a complete naval blockade of key transit corridors like the GIUK, Dover, Denmark Strait, Bosphorus, or the Japanese archipelago—their access to warm waters and oceans would vanish. In retaliation, Ukrainians would probably just blow up any remaining pipelines. That would strip Russia of its energy profits from Europe, which accounts for about 25% of their GDP and 33% of the state budget. It would effectively kill all maritime trade right when their economy is already stumbling.

5. China and India would likely distance themselves from Russia to protect their own image, especially if the West imposes draconian conditions. Maybe even Iran would pull away, given they have plenty of their own internal issues to deal with instead of sharing Russia's fate.

6. Using nuclear weapons without an immediate response would probably lead to a double-digit increase in the number of nuclear-armed nations in the world. Ukraine might still possess the technical expertise and hardware for some kind of nuclear or radiological device. But honestly, I suspect Russia would worry more about Germany or Poland potentially doing the same.

7. Deciding to use nuclear weapons isn't just up to Putin. According to doctrine, there are three layers: the President, the joint chiefs, and the commander of the silo, airbase, or submarine. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian officer refused a launch order. Disobeying such a command would likely signal the imminent collapse of an already shaky military chain of command.

Conclusion: ignore the Russian intimidation tactics. Russia isn't going to touch nuclear weapons in this conflict.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...1295854919680?
"We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone. Everything will be as we like"
- Everything will be as WE like " - Vladlen Tatarsky zvanica
A call to arms from today's announcement—stay strong out there...

Grace Jones86 said:I just don't see this "bloc division" you're talking about.
In what sense?

Sure, China is trading with Russia, but they are far more interdependent with the West and the rest of the world where the West calls the shots.
Therefore, China is clearly and most neatly a part of the Western bloc in every meaningful way.
China dies the day the West decides it's over... no armed conflict required. They’d face famine on par with the darkest days under Mao Zedong. And they are terrified of that... because today, that means a bloody, brutal civil war where the people would likely tear the Party and its local officials apart like rabbits. The public would skin them alive. 😁 And then they'd turn on each other.

Economically speaking, that bloc simply does not exist.

btw...given all this, it was obvious that Putin definitely doesn't have a green light from China, or even India, for an attack under point 1) or any kind of escalation.
Regardless of how much Putin and Xi were grumbling back in February at the Olympics... acting unified and giving that "green light."

This whole thing looks more like a private madhouse in Moscow that actually has nothing to do with real geopolitics.
Geopolitically, this entire narrative is completely senseless and impossible from the moment they entered Ukraine.
(And honestly, how Russia's entry into Crimea in 2014 went so smoothly in the West remains a massive mystery to me.)

From the moment the war started, I knew there wasn't a shred of geopolitical math or logic here. This is pure insanity. That's why I believe the whole saga, from start to finish, is extremely nuclear—dangerous and psychotic.

BUT... China knew that too. And likely so they wouldn't look like cowards who value their own comfort too much,😁 they played along, pretending the possibility of nuclear escalation or a global economic mega-crisis didn't bother them.
That's why I assume a very clear line is being drawn behind the scenes (between China and the US) regarding exactly what Ukraine can and may do, and where China's red line for Moscow lies. It was probably defined from the jump. It would be unprofessional for China not to have done so. In fact, it's impossible they didn't... China doesn't have the luxury of granting Moscow freedom.

northernsailor8 said:Russia definitely won't reach for nuclear weapons, for several reasons.

1. Tactical nukes aren't particularly effective against a highly mobile enemy on the 932 miles front. I guess they don't offer much more direct military impact than the conventional gear Russia already has, like FOAB or hypersonic missiles. Plus, hitting populated cities would be a massive war crime—one you can't really hide or spin as propaganda, even back home.

2. Any detection of elevated radiation levels near the NATO border would likely trigger Article 5 automatically.

3. They run the risk that NATO isn't bluffing and actually follows through with a military response.

4. The economic fallout would be devastating. If Russia faces total isolation at every level—which could include a complete naval blockade of key transit corridors like the GIUK, Dover, Denmark Strait, Bosphorus, or the Japanese archipelago—their access to warm waters and oceans would vanish. In retaliation, Ukrainians would probably just blow up any remaining pipelines. That would strip Russia of its energy profits from Europe, which accounts for about 25% of their GDP and 33% of the state budget. It would effectively kill all maritime trade right when their economy is already stumbling.

5. China and India would likely distance themselves from Russia to protect their own image, especially if the West imposes draconian conditions. Maybe even Iran would pull away, given they have plenty of their own internal issues to deal with instead of sharing Russia's fate.

6. Using nuclear weapons without an immediate response would probably lead to a double-digit increase in the number of nuclear-armed nations in the world. Ukraine might still possess the technical expertise and hardware for some kind of nuclear or radiological device. But honestly, I suspect Russia would worry more about Germany or Poland potentially doing the same.

7. Deciding to use nuclear weapons isn't just up to Putin. According to doctrine, there are three layers: the President, the joint chiefs, and the commander of the silo, airbase, or submarine. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian officer refused a launch order. Disobeying such a command would likely signal the imminent collapse of an already shaky military chain of command.

Conclusion: ignore the Russian intimidation tactics. Russia isn't going to touch nuclear weapons in this conflict.

regarding point 5)

So, economically speaking, both China and India = the West.

It's not just about reputation. It's about the era of prosperity they are banking on and currently enjoying. All of that vanishes with a single decision by the West.

Even now, thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovič putin, the massive, century-long Chinese project known as the New Silk Road... where they intended to flex their geopolitical muscles... is already 🤣 falling apart. They'll be showing their hand soon because everything is stalling out on them.
The Chinese are probably banging their heads against the wall wondering why nobody gives a damn about them. 🤣

btw... latest news is that yet another giant like Evergrande has defaulted in China. Their foundation was already shaky even without the idiots in Moscow. 🤦
And with his help, China's internal weakening will only accelerate... which started for a million different reasons anyway. And they really thought they were going to dominate the 21st century like Americans did the 20th.😁
Not happening. I think the world has finally breathed a sigh of relief knowing that an inhuman mass of a billion and a half people, completely devoid of any ideals of freedom, clearly won't be ruling over anyone or anything. ☕

Grace Jones86 said:regarding point 5)

So, economically speaking, both China and India = the West.

It's not just about reputation. It's about the era of prosperity they are banking on and currently enjoying. All of that vanishes with a single decision by the West.

Even now, thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovič putin, the massive, century-long Chinese project known as the New Silk Road... where they intended to flex their geopolitical muscles... is already 🤣 falling apart. They'll be showing their hand soon because everything is stalling out on them.
The Chinese are probably banging their heads against the wall wondering why nobody gives a damn about them. 🤣

btw... latest news is that yet another giant like Evergrande has defaulted in China. Their foundation was already shaky even without the idiots in Moscow. 🤦
And with his help, China's internal weakening will only accelerate... which started for a million different reasons anyway. And they really thought they were going to dominate the 21st century like Americans did the 20th.😁
Not happening. I think the world has finally breathed a sigh of relief knowing that an inhuman mass of a billion and a half people, completely devoid of any ideals of freedom, clearly won't be ruling over anyone or anything. ☕

Oh yeah, and that Silk Road thing they totally messed up. I guess the Chinese won't need much convincing to sit down for some serious talks with the Russians.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Oh yeah, and that Silk Road thing they totally messed up. I guess the Chinese won't need much convincing to sit down for some serious talks with the Russians.

Don't be naive.
It’s not like two buddies hanging out on a street corner. 🤣 Don't act like they're just heading off to some insignificant little chat.

We're talking global powers here... namely 1) nuclear lunatics and 2) contenders for dominance in the 21st and 22nd centuries. 😁

Obviously, the Chinese "clarified" the reality of the situation to Putin's regime long ago—telling them exactly how things have to work if they don't want to end up trying to sell oil and gas to themselves. 😵
And generally, they can take it where they shove it...
I am certain they are on an extremely short leash held by "their bloc." 🤣
The Russians are dogs. Always have been, always will be.
They are at their best when they are defending themselves; that's when they are effective. When they attack, they do it poorly and pointlessly.

Putin's absolutely disastrous week looks even more grim when you view it through a Chinese lens

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/204...a-lens/377575/

northernsailor8 said:Russia definitely won't reach for nuclear weapons, for several reasons.

1. Tactical nukes aren't particularly effective against a highly mobile enemy on the 932 miles front. I guess they don't offer much more direct military impact than the conventional gear Russia already has, like FOAB or hypersonic missiles. Plus, hitting populated cities would be a massive war crime—one you can't really hide or spin as propaganda, even back home.

2. Any detection of elevated radiation levels near the NATO border would likely trigger Article 5 automatically.

3. They run the risk that NATO isn't bluffing and actually follows through with a military response.

4. The economic fallout would be devastating. If Russia faces total isolation at every level—which could include a complete naval blockade of key transit corridors like the GIUK, Dover, Denmark Strait, Bosphorus, or the Japanese archipelago—their access to warm waters and oceans would vanish. In retaliation, Ukrainians would probably just blow up any remaining pipelines. That would strip Russia of its energy profits from Europe, which accounts for about 25% of their GDP and 33% of the state budget. It would effectively kill all maritime trade right when their economy is already stumbling.

5. China and India would likely distance themselves from Russia to protect their own image, especially if the West imposes draconian conditions. Maybe even Iran would pull away, given they have plenty of their own internal issues to deal with instead of sharing Russia's fate.

6. Using nuclear weapons without an immediate response would probably lead to a double-digit increase in the number of nuclear-armed nations in the world. Ukraine might still possess the technical expertise and hardware for some kind of nuclear or radiological device. But honestly, I suspect Russia would worry more about Germany or Poland potentially doing the same.

7. Deciding to use nuclear weapons isn't just up to Putin. According to doctrine, there are three layers: the President, the joint chiefs, and the commander of the silo, airbase, or submarine. It wouldn't be the first time a Russian officer refused a launch order. Disobeying such a command would likely signal the imminent collapse of an already shaky military chain of command.

Conclusion: ignore the Russian intimidation tactics. Russia isn't going to touch nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Maybe, but they certainly won't allow the Russian Federation to collapse or let the West seize their Siberian resources. They would rather impose the harshest possible dictatorship and trigger a global nuclear catastrophe—letting everything burn if necessary—on the gamble that their massive territory will offer them some level of protection.

Bottom line: stop falling for Russia's intimidation tactics. Russia isn't actually going to touch their nuclear arsenal in this conflict.

We thought they wouldn't invade Ukraine, either. We thought they wouldn't cut Russia off from the West, wouldn't wreck their own country, wouldn't commit inhumane war crimes on a daily basis, wouldn't...
But here we are, living through all of it.
The only people with any sense fled Russia long ago. Now, all that's left is a bunch of idiots brainwashed by propaganda and the poor folks who have nowhere else to go and zero cash to escape. So now they're stuck choosing between starving at home or heading to the front lines. They're going to war without even knowing why, who they're fighting, or what the hell is even happening.
I have never, in my entire life, seen a more pathetic group of wretches than these mobilized soldiers. I wouldn't trust them to watch a flock of sheep, let alone hold a weapon.

The takeaway: we can expect just about anything, and we should prepare to be blindsided. Putin has proven he is willing to do absolutely any disgusting thing just to feed his own narcissistic ego.

By the way... ever since the Russian invasion kicked off—actually, even before it started—American geostrategists have been insisting that Russia isn't, and can't be, a real opponent. In my view, they are just weak fools in every sense of the word.

The only true challenger to the global order, led by the USA, is China and its satellites.

But if you ask me, the US has always banked on China's deep-seated internal weaknesses. That’s why they’ve never actually feared them as real competition.
And the Chinese end up looking like fools too... sure, they're much bigger and more capable fools than Russia is, but a fool is still a fool.

Melissa Peterson19 said:Maybe, but they certainly won't allow the Russian Federation to collapse or let the West seize their Siberian resources. They would rather impose the harshest possible dictatorship and trigger a global nuclear catastrophe—letting everything burn if necessary—on the gamble that their massive territory will offer them some level of protection.

And you think Americans don't have a strategy to prevent that in a nuclear holocaust scenario?

How could they possibly leave Russia with the chance to rebuild within those massive, lawless wildernesses?

Americans aren't children.

They have a "Plan Z." A final plan. A blueprint for executing a global nuclear holocaust with precision. Americans value quality, even when it comes to total mutual destruction. 😁

Terry Green3 said:The Indians, Chinese, and Brazilians really let me down. It seems like BRICS actually thinks they can run their own show.
This suggests we won't have any real leverage in the General Assembly, because the Africans led by South Africa, combined with the Asians and a few Latinos, will hold all the voting power.

We Europeans often forget that ourselves, along with the USA, Canada, and Australia, don't represent the whole world.
The world is actually a much darker, more pathetic place.
Basically, those outside our circle are just looking to create an environment where they can prey on one another and snatch territory through endless wars.

I still think there are plenty of countries out there that aren't about to let their neighbors organize referendums and annex their land without some serious pushback, ☕
though.

Anthony Jones15 said:

Bottom line: stop falling for Russia's intimidation tactics. Russia isn't actually going to touch their nuclear arsenal in this conflict.

We thought they wouldn't invade Ukraine, either. We thought they wouldn't cut Russia off from the West, wouldn't wreck their own country, wouldn't commit inhumane war crimes on a daily basis, wouldn't...
But here we are, living through all of it.
The only people with any sense fled Russia long ago. Now, all that's left is a bunch of idiots brainwashed by propaganda and the poor folks who have nowhere else to go and zero cash to escape. So now they're stuck choosing between starving at home or heading to the front lines. They're going to war without even knowing why, who they're fighting, or what the hell is even happening.
I have never, in my entire life, seen a more pathetic group of wretches than these mobilized soldiers. I wouldn't trust them to watch a flock of sheep, let alone hold a weapon.

The takeaway: we can expect just about anything, and we should prepare to be blindsided. Putin has proven he is willing to do absolutely any disgusting thing just to feed his own narcissistic ego.

You know what actually keeps me up at night? Hitler managed to turn Germany into an autocracy in literally just one year after taking power.

This guy has been pulling this stuff for over a decade now. We're talking about kids growing up in this environment and becoming adults without ever knowing anything else.

That might actually make Russia way more dangerous than Nazi Germany was, because people have already normalized this whole twisted reality...

John Ramos45 said:In the end, the FBI will likely step in to replace Putin with someone new who can actually broker a peace deal. Crimea might stay or go, but regardless, everything else eventually returns to Ukraine.

Why would Crimea be any different?

Russia illegally annexed five different regions from Ukraine—Crimea is just one piece of that puzzle.
There’s simply no reason it should be treated as an exception...

Someone mentioned this a few pages back, and I honestly see it as a brilliant way to de-escalate things—basically moving the whole mess off the global stage and tucking it strictly into the backyard of the US/Russia conflict...
Since all those guarantees regarding the integrity of Ukraine's borders and their very sovereignty have basically been trampled, it might make sense to just return what was originally given to ensure those protections hold up.
Give them back the nukes and whatever else was part of that deal, and just call it a day.

Besides, they’ve got enough resources and know-how to build their own stuff if they really had to.