Sanctions on Russia

briskdrifter3 said:It lines up perfectly with the projected end of the conflict.
If the Russians come out on top, their markets will skyrocket.
Meanwhile, Europe slides into a brutal recession because those sanctions have essentially severed all economic arteries connecting them to the East...

On the flip side, if the Russians lose, their entire market—and frankly, the whole nation—will likely collapse.
And once again, Europe finds itself plunged into a deep recession.

If you haven't realized it yet, this is a total lose-lose scenario for the EU. No matter which way the wind blows...
The Anglo-Saxons have pulled the rug out from under us yet again.

Sure, sure... the European markets will sink while the American ones flourish, right? Because clearly, the US and Russia don't rely on each other's resources at all. It's just the European Union left out in the cold...
🤣

briskdrifter3 said:Give it two or three months—once you're staring down those gas station receipts and seeing what they actually cost—and I suspect you'll find yourself singing a much different tune.

Look, your predictions have been... let's say, questionable at best, for several years now. I've seen you popping up in other threads, too. And interestingly enough, even there, your take was the exact opposite of mine. It’s also interesting how history has consistently proven you wrong.
A serial misser, if you ask me. I suppose you just play the numbers game... eventually, you'll stumble onto something right by sheer volume.

Honestly, we can't just rule out a recession hitting Europe anytime soon. It’s like the whole continent basically let itself get hooked on Russian energy, and now, if Germany suddenly loses its gas supply, things are going to go south incredibly fast. We're looking at some seriously major problems if that happens.

Let them keep cranking out those sanctions.
I’ve already greased up my bike chain, so I’m planning on commuting by bicycle all summer long. Gasoline prices can go straight to $7.25 for all I care.

By the end of the season, Russia will be stuck in the Stone Age. Honestly, the Chechens will probably just take Putin out and collect their payment in euros or dollars for the job.

And then, come autumn, we'll be right back to masks and COVID again. 😁

hollowdriver13 said:Look, the sanctions back during Crimea versus what we're seeing now are two completely different beasts. Those old ones were basically just targeted slaps on the wrist meant to give people the illusion of punishment.

Plus, those 2015 measures cost them a massive 33% drop in GDP.
Since then, they’ve barely managed to crawl back to where they were in 2011.
Even those weak, half-hearted sanctions effectively wiped out nearly a decade of economic progress.
If this current trend keeps up, it’ll drag them all the way back to the late 80s.

silverotter72 said:Look, your predictions have been... let's say, questionable at best, for several years now. I've seen you popping up in other threads, too. And interestingly enough, even there, your take was the exact opposite of mine. It’s also interesting how history has consistently proven you wrong.
A serial misser, if you ask me. I suppose you just play the numbers game... eventually, you'll stumble onto something right by sheer volume.

Wrong?
For years now, I've been talking about this downward spiral—this mounting pile of nonsense heading our way...
So far, everything is proceeding exactly as planned. Unfortunately.

I didn't even realize this was posted here:

Sanctions definitely hit home. Whether or not the Russians actually decide to revolt is a different conversation entirely, I suppose. But from an economic standpoint, we're looking at throwing Russia back fifty or even a hundred years into the past. That kind of regression... it'll eventually blunt the teeth of their military, too. Maybe.

briskdrifter3 said:Regarding the defense of the ruble and their overall reserve situation... frankly, we can't just assume they didn't see these sanctions coming.
They almost certainly factored both the sanctions and the currency devaluation into the cost they were prepared to pay.
Especially after everything that happened following the sanctions over Crimea. They weathered one blow, and they were undoubtedly braced for this second one...

The only real uncertainty is whether they've underestimated the scale of it, though from where I'm sitting, it doesn't look like they have.

So let me get this straight. Russia, where half the economy is basically just pumping oil and gas, and even if they had an economy the size of Spain (or maybe some mid-sized US state), they actually think they can win an economic war against the heavy hitters like the European Union, the USA, Japan, and Australia?

There’s honestly no point in even attempting a rational debate here. When you look at the GDP ratio between the "Western" powers and Russia, we're talking roughly 100:1...

hollowdriver13 said:Look, the sanctions back during Crimea versus what we're seeing now are two completely different beasts. Those old ones were basically just targeted slaps on the wrist meant to give people the illusion of punishment.

If they had rolled this stuff out right after Crimea, everything would be a million times better for everyone right now.

But back then, we had Mutta.

And honestly, she’d pull the exact same moves today too, so don't kid yourselves...

A recent CNN analysis examines how much China can actually assist Russia in mitigating the impact of sanctions, and the conclusion is quite clear: very little at all.

While China serves as Russia's primary trading partner, to Beijing, Russia is nothing more than an afterthought. Given that trade with Russia accounts for a mere 2% of China's total trade volume, it stands to reason that China won't be providing much of a lifeline when faced with the threat of secondary sanctions.

While Russia needs China for trade , Beijing Has other priorities. The world's second largest Economy is Russia's no 1 trading partner, accounting for 16% of the value of its foreign trade, according to CNN Business' calculations based on 2020 figures from the World Trade Organization and Chinese customs data.

However, from the perspective of China, Russia matters a lot less : trade between The Two countries made up Just 2 % of China's total trade volume. The European union and The United States have much larger shares.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/econo...hnk/index.html

For anyone out there who thinks Russians are just naturally built for hardship, check out what this young guy from Russia has to say.



So, the guy's a YouTuber living off international subscribers, but he really laid out exactly what went down with his bank and his life savings.

I was watching Open News yesterday, and I caught Andrew Grubishic talking about what lies ahead. He was discussing how long it’s actually going to take for sanctions to really drain the Russian economy, suggesting that instead of seeing modest growth, they might face a GDP contraction of about 1-2%. His takeaway was that, somehow, they can still manage to live with those numbers.

Honestly, I’m struggling to wrap my head around that—how is a mere 1-2% drop even possible? I don't think he misspoke; it felt like a very deliberate assertion...

Sanctions are going to systematically dismantle Russia, ensuring that even if Putin manages to secure a military victory, he still loses everything. Ultimately, his downfall is inevitable because lifting those sanctions will be the non-negotiable price for peace.

We are looking at a level of economic warfare that is completely unprecedented in history. Back during the Cold War, these kinds of measures wouldn't have hit nearly as hard because the socialist bloc operated under a doctrine of self-sufficiency—they manufactured almost everything they needed to survive within their own borders. But in today’s hyper-connected corporate landscape, modern nations are far too interdependent for anyone to actually survive while being totally cut off from the global market.

And there goes Putko, making himself heard. It seems sanctions have become the main talking point for the public now.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the nations opposing the Russian military operations in Ukraine "not to make things worse by imposing additional restrictions on his country".

Russia used to be this major player, sitting at the big table with the European Union, the USA, and China, having an equal say in everything. Now? It’s basically turned into North Korea, where all anyone talks about is sanctions and nuclear threats...

Linda Harris59 said:Sanctions are going to systematically dismantle Russia, ensuring that even if Putin manages to secure a military victory, he still loses everything. Ultimately, his downfall is inevitable because lifting those sanctions will be the non-negotiable price for peace.

We are looking at a level of economic warfare that is completely unprecedented in history. Back during the Cold War, these kinds of measures wouldn't have hit nearly as hard because the socialist bloc operated under a doctrine of self-sufficiency—they manufactured almost everything they needed to survive within their own borders. But in today’s hyper-connected corporate landscape, modern nations are far too interdependent for anyone to actually survive while being totally cut off from the global market.

I agree, though while self-sufficiency was the official socialist doctrine, reality told a different story. Even the Soviet Union knew how to import wheat and corn from America.

Michael Ortiz68 said:And there goes Putko, making himself heard. It seems sanctions have become the main talking point for the public now.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the nations opposing the Russian military operations in Ukraine "not to make things worse by imposing additional restrictions on his country".

No, actually, everything is just fine—"Russia will endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣
It’s honestly quite sad that there are actual human beings out there who genuinely believe that.

It seems they’ve lost that initial momentum they had during those first couple of days; they just can't seem to manage a decent downward pull anymore:

silverotter72 said:No, actually, everything is just fine—"Russia will endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣
It’s honestly quite sad that there are actual human beings out there who genuinely believe that.

I honestly think like 90% of those Russia-lovers don't even believe this nonsense. They just want to look cool and edgy...