Sanctions on Russia

The defense of the Russian ruble is looking weaker by the day



For those who might be a bit lost on what they’re actually looking at, you have to look at the exchange rate of the Dollar against the ruble. Essentially, the higher that price climbs, the more expensive everything from the rest of the world becomes for Russians—proportional to how much the Dollar has "strengthened" against their currency, or rather, how much the Ruble has bled out against everyone else.

Up until now, they’ve managed to pull some stunts with market interventions to hold the line at 96, but as time goes on, it feels like that boundary is getting harder and harder to defend. Their central bank is burning through foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate just to try and fight every downward slide, but I guess it's becoming clear they just can't sustain those levels anymore.

It seems to me that in the same way Ukrainians are steadily losing territory, the Russians are steadily losing their currency. One side is losing ground inch by inch, while the other is hemorrhaging value across their entire nation and within all those satellite states they happen to control.

silverotter72 said:The defense of the Russian ruble is looking weaker by the day



For those who might be a bit lost on what they’re actually looking at, you have to look at the exchange rate of the Dollar against the ruble. Essentially, the higher that price climbs, the more expensive everything from the rest of the world becomes for Russians—proportional to how much the Dollar has "strengthened" against their currency, or rather, how much the Ruble has bled out against everyone else.

Up until now, they’ve managed to pull some stunts with market interventions to hold the line at 96, but as time goes on, it feels like that boundary is getting harder and harder to defend. Their central bank is burning through foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate just to try and fight every downward slide, but I guess it's becoming clear they just can't sustain those levels anymore.

It seems to me that in the same way Ukrainians are steadily losing territory, the Russians are steadily losing their currency. One side is losing ground inch by inch, while the other is hemorrhaging value across their entire nation and within all those satellite states they happen to control.

There's likely also massive selling pressure coming from former USSR countries that aren't under sanctions but still hold a chunk of capital in rubles... places like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, or Armenia...

Gerald Chavez7 said:There's likely also massive selling pressure coming from former USSR countries that aren't under sanctions but still hold a chunk of capital in rubles... places like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, or Armenia...

Just take a look at how the Kazakhstani tenge is performing. Russia is dragging all its satellites down with it like a heavy stone sinking in water.

Arthur Watson4 said:Schrödinger's stock market.

Existing in a state of being both alive and dead at once.

It’s supposed to open up this coming Monday—or at least, that was the word on the street earlier this week. It'll be pretty wild to see if they actually let it go live.

Gerald Chavez7 said:There's likely also massive selling pressure coming from former USSR countries that aren't under sanctions but still hold a chunk of capital in rubles... places like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, or Armenia...

This really highlights how the global market functions, and those countries are almost certainly playing a part in this. They're watching their capital evaporate and are probably shifting a certain percentage into foreign currencies just to stay afloat. I suppose the real question is just how much they can get away with before Putin decides to come knocking at their door.

hollowdriver13 said:It’s supposed to open up this coming Monday—or at least, that was the word on the street earlier this week. It'll be pretty wild to see if they actually let it go live.

According to the latest reports, the Stock Exchange won't be reopening until Wednesday, March 9th at the earliest, though even that remains highly uncertain given how volatile the current situation has become.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/new...rgi-do-9-marta

Look at what's going down in Leipzig today... honestly, we could be seeing this exact same thing over here pretty soon.

I suspect you would be better served monitoring the volatility within the EU rather than celebrating the decline of the Ruble.
Markets in Germany, France, and Italy are plummeting with the kind of velocity we saw during the height of the pandemic—the Euro is weakening significantly (the Swiss Franc is nearly at parity with the Euro, and the Dollar is gaining ground against it as well).
I happen to work for a large European firm, and frankly, this total severance from Russia brings me absolutely no joy.
In my estimation, this is akin to shooting oneself in the foot...
Europe relies heavily on Russia and its vast resources. Any attempt to pivot toward alternative energy sources is highly questionable—and prohibitively expensive, to say the least.
Given that the Euro is already standing on such shaky ground, Europe truly does not need these kinds of drastic measures right now.

This entire situation regarding Russia has been in the works for quite some time—if you connect the dots with Brexit, you'll see that nothing about this is accidental.

We are looking at the economic devastation of Europe, driven by a wave of anti-war sociopathic hysteria... We simply cannot navigate two massive crises simultaneously without facing severe consequences.

Nobody is exactly throwing a party here, and I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe this downturn only hurts Russia. But if you look at the long game, as much as this situation might squeeze the average citizen's wallet across the EU, it could actually end up being a net positive for the Union. It’s forcing a push toward energy and raw material independence—something that hasn't really happened until now, mostly because there was never any real incentive to move away from the cheap supplies we were getting from umetniimezemljekojomvladanekiluđak.

The more self-sufficient Europe becomes, the stronger it stands.

Anthony Hill5 said:According to the latest reports, the Stock Exchange won't be reopening until Wednesday, March 9th at the earliest, though even that remains highly uncertain given how volatile the current situation has become.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/new...rgi-do-9-marta

It lines up perfectly with the projected end of the conflict.
If the Russians come out on top, their markets will skyrocket.
Meanwhile, Europe slides into a brutal recession because those sanctions have essentially severed all economic arteries connecting them to the East...

On the flip side, if the Russians lose, their entire market—and frankly, the whole nation—will likely collapse.
And once again, Europe finds itself plunged into a deep recession.

If you haven't realized it yet, this is a total lose-lose scenario for the EU. No matter which way the wind blows...
The Anglo-Saxons have pulled the rug out from under us yet again.

briskdrifter3 said:It lines up perfectly with the projected end of the conflict.
If the Russians come out on top, their markets will skyrocket.
Meanwhile, Europe slides into a brutal recession because those sanctions have essentially severed all economic arteries connecting them to the East...

On the flip side, if the Russians lose, their entire market—and frankly, the whole nation—will likely collapse.
And once again, Europe finds itself plunged into a deep recession.

If you haven't realized it yet, this is a total lose-lose scenario for the EU. No matter which way the wind blows...
The Anglo-Saxons have pulled the rug out from under us yet again.

Pretty pathetic trolling.

It looked like the Russians tried to step in and mess with the exchange rate again this morning, but honestly, the Ruble couldn't even hold steady at 105 to the Dollar for a single hour. It had been dropped down from 112, but it just slid right back to 110. Every time they try to defend it, the effort seems a little more desperate and weaker than the last.

silverotter72 said:Nobody is exactly throwing a party here, and I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe this downturn only hurts Russia. But if you look at the long game, as much as this situation might squeeze the average citizen's wallet across the EU, it could actually end up being a net positive for the Union. It’s forcing a push toward energy and raw material independence—something that hasn't really happened until now, mostly because there was never any real incentive to move away from the cheap supplies we were getting from umetniimezemljekojomvladanekiluđak.

The more self-sufficient Europe becomes, the stronger it stands.

Please, spare me the lecture on energy independence. You might as well just throw "green energy" into the mix while you're at it.
We don't have any energy.

Europe is practically screaming for affordable energy—cheap gas, cheap oil, cheap steel. We simply cannot remain competitive if our power costs are sky-high.
Because of those green zealots who shut down the nuclear plants—leaving countries like Sweden and Germany struggling to keep the lights on—we are now cutting ourselves off from cheap Russian oil and gas.

What do you all think? Is Volkswagen going to be jumping for joy because they lack the power to run their factories? Or will Airbus be dancing in the aisles while aviation collapses and the customer base vanishes?

But hey, at least we showed the Russians who's boss by banning their cats from entering the local cat shows...

hollowdriver13 said:It looked like the Russians tried to step in and mess with the exchange rate again this morning, but honestly, the Ruble couldn't even hold steady at 105 to the Dollar for a single hour. It had been dropped down from 112, but it just slid right back to 110. Every time they try to defend it, the effort seems a little more desperate and weaker than the last.

Out of those roughly $640 billion in foreign reserves, about half is tied up in John and gold.
https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/

The real question is how many days—if ever—it’ll actually take to see the true state of those reserves. I guess it's probably becoming a state secret at this point.

Arthur Watson4 said:Pretty pathetic trolling.

Give it two or three months—once you're staring down those gas station receipts and seeing what they actually cost—and I suspect you'll find yourself singing a much different tune.

Kyle Nelson2 said:Out of those roughly $640 billion in foreign reserves, about half is tied up in John and gold.
https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/

The real question is how many days—if ever—it’ll actually take to see the true state of those reserves. I guess it's probably becoming a state secret at this point.

Plus, about 40% of their foreign reserves are frozen solid, and let's be real, gold isn't exactly easy to liquidate on a whim when things go sideways...

Kyle Nelson2 said:Out of those roughly $640 billion in foreign reserves, about half is tied up in John and gold.
https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/

The real question is how many days—if ever—it’ll actually take to see the true state of those reserves. I guess it's probably becoming a state secret at this point.

Regarding the defense of the ruble and their overall reserve situation... frankly, we can't just assume they didn't see these sanctions coming.
They almost certainly factored both the sanctions and the currency devaluation into the cost they were prepared to pay.
Especially after everything that happened following the sanctions over Crimea. They weathered one blow, and they were undoubtedly braced for this second one...

The only real uncertainty is whether they've underestimated the scale of it, though from where I'm sitting, it doesn't look like they have.

briskdrifter3 said:I suspect you would be better served monitoring the volatility within the EU rather than celebrating the decline of the Ruble.
Markets in Germany, France, and Italy are plummeting with the kind of velocity we saw during the height of the pandemic—the Euro is weakening significantly (the Swiss Franc is nearly at parity with the Euro, and the Dollar is gaining ground against it as well).
I happen to work for a large European firm, and frankly, this total severance from Russia brings me absolutely no joy.
In my estimation, this is akin to shooting oneself in the foot...
Europe relies heavily on Russia and its vast resources. Any attempt to pivot toward alternative energy sources is highly questionable—and prohibitively expensive, to say the least.
Given that the Euro is already standing on such shaky ground, Europe truly does not need these kinds of drastic measures right now.

This entire situation regarding Russia has been in the works for quite some time—if you connect the dots with Brexit, you'll see that nothing about this is accidental.

We are looking at the economic devastation of Europe, driven by a wave of anti-war sociopathic hysteria... We simply cannot navigate two massive crises simultaneously without facing severe consequences.

Europe should have had its own independent foreign policy and military strength a long time ago... now we're seeing the fallout from not having them.

Yeah, Europe needs Russia and its resources, but it definitely doesn't need Putin or anyone else like him... seriously, shouldn't that be obvious to everyone by now?

Now it's going to hurt us all... and it's gonna hurt bad. But hey, we don't have much of a choice.

briskdrifter3 said:Regarding the defense of the ruble and their overall reserve situation... frankly, we can't just assume they didn't see these sanctions coming.
They almost certainly factored both the sanctions and the currency devaluation into the cost they were prepared to pay.
Especially after everything that happened following the sanctions over Crimea. They weathered one blow, and they were undoubtedly braced for this second one...

The only real uncertainty is whether they've underestimated the scale of it, though from where I'm sitting, it doesn't look like they have.

Look, the sanctions back during Crimea versus what we're seeing now are two completely different beasts. Those old ones were basically just targeted slaps on the wrist meant to give people the illusion of punishment.

Kerefek76 As stated by:
It all seems to align perfectly with the projected timeline for the conclusion of the conflict.

What other details were disclosed during the meeting?

Should Russia emerge victorious, one can only assume their stock market will skyrocket toward the stratosphere. Is it truly so difficult to foresee such a consequence?

Is it not patently obvious that the stock market remains entirely beholden to the progress of military operations on the ground? 😁

"Quote:"

Is it any wonder that Europe is currently spiraling into a brutal recession? We are witnessing the inevitable fallout of these sweeping sanctions, which have effectively severed every vital economic artery connecting the continent to the East. How can one expect stability when the very lifelines of commerce have been systematically dismantled? Should the Russians suffer a defeat, their entire stock market and the nation itself will face an absolute collapse. Is it even possible to imagine the level of chaos that would ensue when their financial foundations crumble entirely? One has to wonder if they have any contingency plans at all, or if they are simply hurtling toward a total systemic breakdown. Is it any wonder that Europe is once again spiraling headlong into a brutal recession? One has to ask ourselves: how much longer can this cycle of economic instability be tolerated before the entire foundation begins to crumble? If you haven't quite grasped the gravity of the situation yet, let me make this clear: we are looking at a total lose-lose scenario for the European Union. No matter how you attempt to spin it, the outcome remains the same. It seems once again that the Anglo-Saxons have maneuvered us right into a corner. Is it any wonder we find ourselves facing such persistent interference?

What else can one possibly call these utterly baseless assertions, if not blatant trolling or nothing more than pure, unadulterated wishful thinking?