Sanctions on Russia

rowdyraven112 said:Look at the Russian GDP compared to oil prices. Factor in those quasi-sanctions from 2014. If oil drops below $60 a barrel, they lose the ability to fund this war. Sure, they'd have enough to run the government and maintain basic stability under normal circumstances. But with a war and sanctions hitting them? They wouldn't make it to autumn.

I remember reading about how once the Americans realized the former USSR was padding its budget by importing grain—which they weren't even producing enough of at the time—they decided to take action.

They worked with their then-close allies in the Middle East to ramp up production. That move triggered a massive price collapse that ultimately helped push the USSR toward bankruptcy.

But the landscape has shifted significantly since those days.
Russia now produces much more food, enough to cover their own needs and still export plenty, and a very determined leader has taken the helm in Saudi Arabia.
He mentioned in an interview once that he actually respects and values Putin more than any of the American presidents. His reasoning was simple: he claimed that when he reaches an agreement with Putin, the deal is honored, whereas the Americans tend to try and wiggle out of hard-signed treaties whenever they no longer suit their interests.

So, given this massive surge in production capacity and the potential for falling prices, I find it hard to believe much will change without significant shifts in policy.

Let's take a closer look at this crown prince who seems to be pulling the strings within Saudi Arabia and OPEC+.

The young prince and heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed bin Salman, has built quite a reputation as a bold reformer for his country.

According to the BBC, he leads the National Economic Council, which oversees all policy elements tied to the economy, as well as social issues like education, healthcare, and housing.

On top of that, he chairs the board of Aramco, the largest oil company in Saudi Arabia, making him the first member of the ruling family to directly oversee the oil giant. The BBC also notes that since stepping into his role as crown prince, Bin Salman has wielded power and influence unlike anyone else except the King himself.

https://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/sau.../30195737.html

So, in my view—and that's shared by several experts—we aren't going to see any major price drops unless there is a fundamental realignment of global relations and a synchronization of interests.

Personally, I think a realistic price for oil would sit somewhere between $60 and $80 per barrel (though it would likely stay above $80 due to inflation here in the US). At that level, it remains profitable for everyone to extract and explore new sites, but it becomes incredibly difficult to fund large-scale wars. Even the conflict in Ukraine wouldn't be able to be financed indefinitely at those rates.

rowdyraven112 said:What happened at Times Square was purely anti-Russian. I didn't see any Italians out in the squares calling for the slaughter of Americans or anyone else. In the US, we call that a coup d'état and start legal proceedings. Same in Spain. In Ukraine, they call it the democratic will of the people. EDIT: forgot to mention... in Belarus, they call the exact same thing state repression.☕
Of course, after the Warsaw Pact fell, Gorachev was acting like a naive baby. Most Biden supporters claim he didn't ask for, or even receive, any guarantees regarding NATO expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries. Not that anything was ever signed—back then, nuclear powers relied on handshakes and verbal agreements. ☕
My favorite part? Everyone claiming the US and the West aren't responsible for what's happening in Ukraine right now. It was actually the West that allowed oil to hit $120 a barrel back in 2004, providing the massive profits needed to exploit shale oil. That money directly funded both the military and economic recovery of Russia, setting the stage for today. By the way, oil is still sitting around $120. The money keeps moving. Biden supporters are essentially financing the Russian Army. If oil dropped to $60 tomorrow, Russia would be on its knees instantly—militarily and economically—and Ukrainians could liberate their country without any Western military aid at all.☕

You went on quite a rant, but I don't see any mention of actual war here.
Dream all you want, but there's just no justification for it.

And yeah, I'll give you that—these oil and gas prices are pure profiteering. Just to be clear, I wasn't talking about wartime pricing; this stuff started before that.

Take it easy. Cheers.

analogbear5 said:Total nonsense. Even with a strong ruble, Russian oil exports would still be incredibly profitable.

But the ruble is only strong because of those very exports. There is demand... it is the currency used to settle the principal on energy shipments.
So, how does one reconcile that logic when we are supposedly talking about sanctions?

mellownomad7 said:What would you do if the Italians decided the government in Washington, D.C. was fascist and they needed to step in to protect their minority in California?

Cheers

First off, don't be an idiot and make enemies out of your neighbors just to satisfy someone else's agenda. Being stupid is expensive, I guess.

We defended our own people in Arkansas with force, so there's really no need to go off on these wild hypothetical tangents. 😁

Brandon Clark4 said:But the ruble is only strong because of those very exports. There is demand... it is the currency used to settle the principal on energy shipments.
So, how does one reconcile that logic when we are supposedly talking about sanctions?

Exactly. Russia is actually coming out on top from this whole war. Their problematic neighbor is totally sidelined, energy prices have gone through the roof, and export revenue is higher than ever.

The whole point of sanctions is to stop Russia from profiting off the aggression. As it stands, they're failing because they don't cut deep enough. And they won't cut deep because Europe is way too dependent on Russian energy.

Could this buyer cartel actually drive oil prices down? I mean, I guess it's possible, but who knows. Maybe. It feels like one of those things that sounds simple on paper until you actually look at how these groups operate. Just an idea, really.

I saw this piece floating around about the whole situation with energy prices and how everything is shifting, and honestly, it’s just... a lot. I was reading through the details, and I guess you could say things are getting complicated fast. It feels like we're constantly jumping from one crisis to the next, right? One minute it's supply chains, the next it's geopolitical shifts, and now we're looking at these massive fluctuations in the energy markets. It makes me wonder if anyone actually has a handle on the long game here. Maybe I'm being too cynical, but it feels like we're just reacting to fires instead of actually building something stable. Anyway, I don't know. There's a lot of talk about how the US is positioning itself versus what's happening overseas, especially with the way gas prices react to every little hiccup at an LNG facility or a shift in policy. It's all very interconnected, which I suppose is the point, but it's exhausting to track. Just my two cents, I guess. Everything is moving so fast, and sometimes it feels like the headlines are just spinning in circles.

So, I was just reading about this... apparently, Italy's PM Draghi is floating this idea about putting together some kind of "oil consumer cartel" following his discussions with Biden. It's wild, right? Just a massive shift in how things work. I guess he's looking to give the big buyers more leverage, almost like they're trying to play the same game as OPEC, but from the other side of the table. Maybe it's a way to stabilize things, or maybe it's just a desperate move to gain some control over the market volatility we've been seeing lately. I don't know, it feels like a huge gamble. If they actually pull this off, it could change the whole dynamic of global energy politics. But then again, getting all these different countries to actually agree on anything? That's always the hard part. I mean, it sounds good on paper, but in practice... who knows. It's just one of those things that makes you wonder where the energy market is even headed.

So, I was just looking at this report about how the global energy landscape is shifting, specifically regarding how much money is actually hitting Moscow's pockets. It’s all getting pretty complicated, honestly. There’s this whole massive debate happening between the US and its European allies over whether a price cap on Russian crude is actually going to work or if it's just a headache for everyone involved. The core idea—if you can even call it that—is the attempt to keep Russian oil flowing through the global market to prevent some massive spike in prices, while simultaneously trying to limit Moscow's revenue. It’s a delicate balancing act, I guess. If they cut off the supply entirely, we're looking at a total meltdown in energy markets, which nobody wants. But if they let it flow too freely, they aren't really hitting the target. It feels like a bit of a shell game. You have countries like India and China picking up huge amounts of oil, basically bypassing the spirit of any restrictions. Even with everything being said in the Wall Street Journal and other big outlets, the reality on the ground seems much messier than the policy papers suggest. Everything depends on how much pressure the US can actually apply without breaking the global economy. Maybe it'll work, maybe it won't. It's hard to say for sure when things move this fast.

So, looks like the US has cooked up yet another scheme to squeeze Russia's oil money. I guess we'll see if this one actually sticks or if it's just more talk.
So, I heard the U.S. is currently in discussions with our European allies regarding a possible price cap on Russian crude. It’s a complicated situation, really. I guess we'll see where it goes, but it feels like one of those moves that could go either way depending on how much pressure they actually apply. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't... who knows? Just seems like a lot of back-and-forth happening behind the scenes right now.
The whole idea here is basically just trying to keep that Russian oil moving through the system, while simultaneously doing what we can to squeeze Moscow's energy profits. I guess it's a delicate balancing act, really.

An oil buyer cartel makes way more sense for US interests. For Europe, they'd be better off with a gas buyer cartel.

I mean, maybe India and China would actually go for this. There isn't some massive embargo on Russian oil or anything; everyone is just buying it at these lower, negotiated rates. It might even force other oil prices to nudge downwards too. I guess we'll see how the Saudi reaction plays out, though. That could get interesting.

Some good news for the pro-Russia crowd: US LNG exports just took a sixth-sized hit thanks to that fire at the Texas facility.

Natural-Gas Prices Plunge after extended Outage AT Texas LNG Facility (Wall Street Journal)

Looks like Americans get cheaper gas because of the export dip! Finally—maybe I can stop profiting off this whole war mess.

analogbear5 said:Man, it’s funny how once globalization actually starts moving again, all those anti-globalist types are the first ones whining when prices finally snap back to normal.

Exactly this. All these anti-globalists, anti-imperialists, and self-proclaimed defenders of human dignity are the absolute first to start crying the moment the gas they condemn becomes too expensive. It's honestly hilarious.

analogbear5 said:Exactly. Russia is actually coming out on top from this whole war. Their problematic neighbor is totally sidelined, energy prices have gone through the roof, and export revenue is higher than ever.

The whole point of sanctions is to stop Russia from profiting off the aggression. As it stands, they're failing because they don't cut deep enough. And they won't cut deep because Europe is way too dependent on Russian energy.

Sanctioning Russian gas and oil is pure idiocy because, from day one, it’s been hurting us more than them. Of course, when I pointed this out two months ago, I was met with some colorful insults from financially illiterate and uneducated forum users who substitute a lack of logic and intelligence with sheer rudeness.

I don't even feel like gloating; it would be like trying to explain basic addition to a toddler. At this point, I'm just supposed to be satisfied that I was right. 🤦

analogbear5 said:Some good news for the pro-Russia crowd: US LNG exports just took a sixth-sized hit thanks to that fire at the Texas facility.

Natural-Gas Prices Plunge after extended Outage AT Texas LNG Facility (Wall Street Journal)

Looks like Americans get cheaper gas because of the export dip! Finally—maybe I can stop profiting off this whole war mess.

I’m sure some people would label me a Russophile, but that is a massive mistake.

I don't gloat over tragedies, nor do I celebrate anyone's misfortune, but I truly believe the world isn't just some tool for the interests of the American and European elite.
Even Pope Francis has suggested that this conflict was provoked,

While I am an agnostic, I respect Pope Francis because I think he is a genuinely good man at heart. I don't view this war like a football match where you cheer when your team scores or feel joy when the opponent loses.
This isn't a game or a competition; people are dying and suffering every single moment, and the vast, overwhelming majority of them aren't even to blame—they are simply being misled and are dying for someone else's agenda.
That doesn't mean I don't condemn Putin for his direct involvement and for escalating the war in the Donbas, especially since the conflict began back in 2014 and Ukraine didn't fulfill the terms of the Minsk agreements.

As for this accident at the LNG terminal, it might lead to slightly cheaper gas for Americans, but it could just as easily drive prices even higher for Europeans.
And let me tell you, as a European, I couldn't care less if the American leadership wants to shout from Ukraine about Russia remaining the global hegemon or how they only care about their own interests—or how, as Trump put it, it should be "America first," yet those leading Biden have turned it into "America only."

Regarding this idea of some sort of "consumer cartel," it feels similar to the concept discussed by Ursula and her colleagues about refusing to pay for Russian gas in rubles.

If China, India, and all the other countries that haven't imposed sanctions on Russia actually agreed to such a thing, they would implement it themselves rather than waiting for some "miracle" solution from the European trio.

We also need to take a closer look at Saudi Arabia and Prince Mohammed; Saudi Arabia is engaged in the Yemen war, and if they do agree to increase production, it will likely be done just so the Americans can sell them more weapons, allowing them to continue fighting in Yemen where things aren't going so well for them.
If you look up the Yemen war, you'll see far more people have died there, but some people seem indifferent because they perhaps assume an Arab mother loves her child any less than a Ukrainian or Russian mother does.

Any war is a massive evil and needs to end as soon as possible. Arguing over who is primarily to blame can go on for decades or even centuries, but this isn't a championship match where we need to decide on a winner through penalty kicks or coin tosses. War is an evil, plain and simple.

Gas futures tied to TTF have surged past the €100 per megawatt-hour threshold—a high we haven't seen in over a month—all because everyone is freaking out about supply stability. The Freeport LNG facility, which was rocked by that explosion last week, just announced that repairs are going to drag on for months; they don't expect to be back at full strength until late 2022. To put that in perspective, roughly 68% of what Freeport LNG produces goes straight to the UK and the EU, and this one facility handles nearly 17% of the total liquefaction capacity in the US. As if that wasn't enough, flows into Germany via the vital Nord Stream pipeline have dropped by 40% because sanctions blocked Gazprom from getting the repair equipment they were sent earlier. And let's not forget the outages in Norway's gas infrastructure, which are already squeezing shipments from the region's second-largest supplier.

G translate

Gas futures tied to TTF have surged past the €100 per megawatt-hour threshold—a high we haven't seen in over a month—all because everyone is freaking out about supply stability. The Freeport LNG facility, which was rocked by that explosion last week, just announced that repairs are going to drag on for months; they don't expect to be back at full strength until late 2022. To put that in perspective, roughly 68% of what Freeport LNG produces goes straight to the UK and the EU, and this one facility handles nearly 17% of the total liquefaction capacity in the US. As if that wasn't enough, flows into Germany via the vital Nord Stream pipeline have dropped by 40% because sanctions blocked Gazprom from getting the repair equipment they were sent earlier. And let's not forget the outages in Norway's gas infrastructure, which are already squeezing shipments from the region's second-largest supplier.

It’s just one black swan event after another; they’re practically breeding them at this point. Thousands of "experts" sitting in their offices are going to be pulling serious overtime soon—we're definitely going to need a whole new stack of decrees and regulations to manage this mess. ☕

Joshua Myers432 said:Sanctioning Russian gas and oil is pure idiocy because, from day one, it’s been hurting us more than them. Of course, when I pointed this out two months ago, I was met with some colorful insults from financially illiterate and uneducated forum users who substitute a lack of logic and intelligence with sheer rudeness.

I don't even feel like gloating; it would be like trying to explain basic addition to a toddler. At this point, I'm just supposed to be satisfied that I was right. 🤦

It's the same thing Janet Yellen told Europeans a long time ago. And let's be real, she's definitely not out to hurt American oil and gas producers, nor is she an enemy of Ukraine.

rustywalker82 said:It's the same thing Janet Yellen told Europeans a long time ago. And let's be real, she's definitely not out to hurt American oil and gas producers, nor is she an enemy of Ukraine.

Support for Zelenskyy and the current administration seems to be steadily gaining ground among Europeans, but I have to wonder about the reality on the ground. There is a profound lack of reliable information regarding what Americans—or even the people within Ukraine itself—actually think, especially considering the sentiments held prior to the Maidan protests.
To me, the media manipulation and the intentional shaping of public opinion by both sides just doesn't sit right; it feels fundamentally dishonest.
I often find myself thinking back to those old political debates where they used to say, "the truth runs deep," yet it always felt like such a hollow phrase when things got complicated.

rustywalker82 said:It's the same thing Janet Yellen told Europeans a long time ago. And let's be real, she's definitely not out to hurt American oil and gas producers, nor is she an enemy of Ukraine.

That’s just like a dealer talking to an addict...

The EU will eventually move away from Russian oil, sure, but only once they manage to swap out about 30% of all cars for electric vehicles over the next five years. Once that happens, then maybe they can finally say "bye bye" to the dealer...

silentnomad7 said:That’s just like a dealer talking to an addict...

The EU will eventually move away from Russian oil, sure, but only once they manage to swap out about 30% of all cars for electric vehicles over the next five years. Once that happens, then maybe they can finally say "bye bye" to the dealer...

I hear you, but honestly, the only way to achieve that kind of shift is through military force. Even without this conflict, the EU would have moved away from those energy sources eventually. That’s exactly why OPEC isn't looking to ramp up production—they know the writing is on the wall. Think about it: they just recently slapped restrictions on certain ICE vehicle sales. Why would the smart players in Saudi Arabia bother increasing output when they’ll likely have to scrap all that expensive infrastructure and turn it into scrap metal in five to ten years?

The only logical explanation for this whole mess is that the scientists actually were right all along and real action finally had to be taken. If that's the case, we should probably thank Putin, the USA, and Ukraine. It turns out they managed to accomplish what no summit of political windbags at climate conferences has ever been able to do. ☕

When the heavy hitters start playing games with epidemiology and warfare, nations shaped like croissants end up footing the bill.

According to the latest numbers released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of consumer goods and services has jumped by 10.8% compared to May of 2021. Honestly, it’s a bit staggering—this marks the highest inflation rate we've seen since the Bureau started tracking this data. It feels like everything just keeps getting more expensive by the day, doesn't it?

silentnomad7 said:That’s just like a dealer talking to an addict...

The EU will eventually move away from Russian oil, sure, but only once they manage to swap out about 30% of all cars for electric vehicles over the next five years. Once that happens, then maybe they can finally say "bye bye" to the dealer...

Yellen didn't exactly say, "Hey, wait until the dealer starts getting violent, and just ignore how his profits are skyrocketing instead of dropping."
I've already touched on how to handle breaking an addiction efficiently. It's much better if the penalties on consumption stay within the consumer's own country rather than lining the pockets of the dealer.

urbanotter said:Support for Zelenskyy and the current administration seems to be steadily gaining ground among Europeans, but I have to wonder about the reality on the ground. There is a profound lack of reliable information regarding what Americans—or even the people within Ukraine itself—actually think, especially considering the sentiments held prior to the Maidan protests.
To me, the media manipulation and the intentional shaping of public opinion by both sides just doesn't sit right; it feels fundamentally dishonest.
I often find myself thinking back to those old political debates where they used to say, "the truth runs deep," yet it always felt like such a hollow phrase when things got complicated.

Once Ukraine finally surrenders, everything will revert to the status quo. Inflation will crater, and the prices for oil and gas will plummet right back to where they were. Everything will return to normal, and business at our firm will finally start blooming again.