Sanctions on Russia

It’s the same old story here: a bunch of self-proclaimed experts piling on about sanctions, claiming they’ll drag Russia back to the Stone Age until they just fold and Putin gets booted from office.
But what happens to Ukraine in the meantime? Most of their power plants and industrial hubs are sitting right in the middle of the combat zone in the east. What are they supposed to live on then? Milk and honey?

steelraven74 said:It’s the same old story here: a bunch of self-proclaimed experts piling on about sanctions, claiming they’ll drag Russia back to the Stone Age until they just fold and Putin gets booted from office.
But what happens to Ukraine in the meantime? Most of their power plants and industrial hubs are sitting right in the middle of the combat zone in the east. What are they supposed to live on then? Milk and honey?

Regardless of how things shake out for Ukraine, I imagine any outcome would be preferable to being crushed by Russia.

Carl Lee27 said:Delta, along with its subsidiaries like Spirit and JetBlue, is pulling the plug on all international flights starting March 8th—though they’ll still be flying into Minsk.
It honestly feels like they're just terrified someone is going to seize their entire fleet.

Quincy:

Delta is suspending its international routes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/w...mid=tw-nytimes

Basically, bankruptcy...

It seems like those sanctions finally managed to sting even the man at the top.

He brought up the West's sanctions, claiming they’re just as heavy as a formal declaration of war.

I suppose it’ll be incredibly interesting to see how things play out this Monday once the forex markets actually open.

silverotter72 Asks:
So, looks like those sanctions finally started hitting home, even for the guy running half the show.
So, I was just catching up on the latest news, and man, Putin is really leaning into this narrative about how the conflict in Ukraine is basically his fault for being "pushed" by the West. It’s wild how he tries to spin it like he's the one being cornered, rather than the guy who actually started the whole mess. He’s out there claiming that all this tension was inevitable because of how the West has been expanding its influence, acting like he had no choice but to react. It’s pretty much the same old song and dance we've seen before—lots of finger-pointing and trying to shift the blame onto everyone else to justify what he's doing. Honestly, listening to these speeches feels a bit like watching a bad movie where the villain tries to convince you they're actually the hero. He keeps pushing this idea that the US and the EU are the ones driving everything toward a massive confrontation, when in reality, the whole situation is a direct result of his own decisions. Anyway, just my two cents while I sip my coffee. It’s a lot to wrap your head around, especially when you realize how much of this is just pure political theater designed to play to his base back home. Just stay skeptical, folks.

It’s gonna be wild seeing how things play out once the forex markets kick off this Monday. I'm honestly pretty stoked to see what happens.

🤔

It’s been ten days since...Honestly, nobody can touch us. We’re stronger than fate itself.Honestly, saying that the weight of these sanctions is basically a declaration of war? That's some heavy stuff right there.
But man, he was acting all high and mighty, claiming they’ve totally got the tools and the capacity to just soak up those sanctions like they're nothing. 😬
It just goes to show how much these guys leaned too hard on their own assumptions. You can clearly see they totally underestimated how the West would react. They were banking on internal bickering and hoping everyone would be too hesitant to slap on heavy sanctions because of the lingering fallout from the pandemic. Honestly, they probably thought they could just coast through this, treating it like some minor skirmish over Crimea and expecting nothing to change.

How gas prices in Russia are shifting following the sanctions



Could it be that we're seeing half the price in America, while Europe is only seeing a quarter of the impact?

steelraven74 said:It’s the same old story here: a bunch of self-proclaimed experts piling on about sanctions, claiming they’ll drag Russia back to the Stone Age until they just fold and Putin gets booted from office.
But what happens to Ukraine in the meantime? Most of their power plants and industrial hubs are sitting right in the middle of the combat zone in the east. What are they supposed to live on then? Milk and honey?

The sanctions aren't going anywhere. This isn't some novelty act, and it's never that simple—it's not like we're just going to cut a check to Russia later to compensate them for being sanctioned. 🤣 Sanctions hurt, sure, but they're also unavoidable.

Zelenskyy is already talking about IMF money, acting as if the victory is already in the bag. He even took a moment to thank everyone for the support:

We are already thinking about the future. For all Ukrainians. After the war. About how to revive our cities. How to revive the economy. I spoke with World Bank President David Malpass, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

WE have an agreement among The largest financial institutions to support Ukraine. There is already a decision on emergency aid and tens of billions of dollars for The reconstruction of Ukraine after The War. — Zelenskyy, today. https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/...myr-zelenskyy/

hollowdriver13 said:

silverotter72 Asks:
So, looks like those sanctions finally started hitting home, even for the guy running half the show.
So, I was just catching up on the latest news, and man, Putin is really leaning into this narrative about how the conflict in Ukraine is basically his fault for being "pushed" by the West. It’s wild how he tries to spin it like he's the one being cornered, rather than the guy who actually started the whole mess. He’s out there claiming that all this tension was inevitable because of how the West has been expanding its influence, acting like he had no choice but to react. It’s pretty much the same old song and dance we've seen before—lots of finger-pointing and trying to shift the blame onto everyone else to justify what he's doing. Honestly, listening to these speeches feels a bit like watching a bad movie where the villain tries to convince you they're actually the hero. He keeps pushing this idea that the US and the EU are the ones driving everything toward a massive confrontation, when in reality, the whole situation is a direct result of his own decisions. Anyway, just my two cents while I sip my coffee. It’s a lot to wrap your head around, especially when you realize how much of this is just pure political theater designed to play to his base back home. Just stay skeptical, folks.

It’s gonna be wild seeing how things play out once the forex markets kick off this Monday. I'm honestly pretty stoked to see what happens.

🤔

It’s been ten days since...Honestly, nobody can touch us. We’re stronger than fate itself.Honestly, saying that the weight of these sanctions is basically a declaration of war? That's some heavy stuff right there.
But man, he was acting all high and mighty, claiming they’ve totally got the tools and the capacity to just soak up those sanctions like they're nothing. 😬
It just goes to show how much these guys leaned too hard on their own assumptions. You can clearly see they totally underestimated how the West would react. They were banking on internal bickering and hoping everyone would be too hesitant to slap on heavy sanctions because of the lingering fallout from the pandemic. Honestly, they probably thought they could just coast through this, treating it like some minor skirmish over Crimea and expecting nothing to change.

That alleged mistress of Putin’s—some gymnast or whatever she is—has been whining for a while now. She’s out there crying about how Maddox was allowed to run wild back in the America days, and then suddenly they hit them with sanctions. Give me a break. The West is just being difficult, especially since Slobodan Maddox didn't even have... nukzor.

Lake Como update: Italian authorities just seized two villas belonging to oligarch V. Soloviev, worth about $8 million.

Russian oligarchs lose $8 million villas on Lake Como

Honestly, we should be seizing every single villa and yacht they own across all of Europe... let those Putin supporters know they aren't welcome anywhere.

Dana Robinson4 said:How gas prices in Russia are shifting following the sanctions

Could it be that we're seeing half the price in America, while Europe is only seeing a quarter of the impact?

They have plenty of oil and gas; that was never in doubt, nor has it ever been. It’s just that you can’t exactly eat or drink oil and gas, and you certainly can't turn them into the basic things you need to survive your daily life. You can drive around, I suppose, and that's about it. Thank God Russia is such a massive place, so they at least have enough space to drive around in.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Lake Como update: Italian authorities just seized two villas belonging to oligarch V. Soloviev, worth about $8 million.

Russian oligarchs lose $8 million villas on Lake Como

Honestly, we should be seizing every single villa and yacht they own across all of Europe... let those Putin supporters know they aren't welcome anywhere.

This is 100% propaganda. Is it not entirely implausible that those whose entire occupation is spitting on everything Western would choose to spend their fortunes buying property in Western nations?

Kate Lewis3 said:That alleged mistress of Putin’s—some gymnast or whatever she is—has been whining for a while now. She’s out there crying about how Maddox was allowed to run wild back in the America days, and then suddenly they hit them with sanctions. Give me a break. The West is just being difficult, especially since Slobodan Maddox didn't even have... nukzor.

hhhh, the mistresses and wives are going to be the ones crying next; the days of Louis Vuitton and all that are over, and don't even get me started on the luxury shopping sprees in Paris and Milan.

The Italians are finally getting down to business...
The FBI has the list of oligarchs right in their hands: check ✓.

Oligarch Savchenko’s estate, worth $3 million: check ✓.
The 'Lady M di Mordaschov' yacht belonging to oligarch A. Mordashov, valued at $65 million: check ✓.

Russian oligarchs, freeze the Lady M di Mordaschov yacht: estimated value $65 million

Anthony Hill5 said:This is 100% propaganda. Is it not entirely implausible that those whose entire occupation is spitting on everything Western would choose to spend their fortunes buying property in Western nations?

Well, Solovyov is the textbook definition of that...

Russians are fleeing their own homeland via the last remaining public transit line connecting them to the EU: ‘Panic is setting in for many’
Link
Man... if this turns out to be true, things are looking pretty grim.
I can just see Putin spinning this next; he'll probably claim that Russians living in those neighboring countries are being oppressed, and then he'll use that as an excuse to go in and "liberate" them... maybe even Finland.

Dana Robinson4 said:How gas prices in Russia are shifting following the sanctions

Could it be that we're seeing half the price in America, while Europe is only seeing a quarter of the impact?

In Venezuela, a gallon of gas is about $0.02. In Libya, it's $0.03. In Iran, $0.05. Then you look at Syria and it hits $0.28.....

I guess we can pretty much see where this conversation is headed—comparing fuel costs to the standard of living.

The Ruble took another hit today. We started the morning at 110 rubles per dollar, but we’re already looking at roughly 122.
A freefall, really.
Back on March 2nd, the Federal Reserve attempted a major intervention to stabilize the rate—likely by burning through dollar reserves—which briefly pushed the rate below 100. That attempt failed miserably, and if you look at the chart, those reserves just went up in smoke.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=RUB&view=1W

As time ticks on, we should prepare for shortages of imported goods and significant price hikes.
Consumer goods make up about 14.5% of imports, followed by machinery and vehicles at roughly 45%, and chemicals at 19%.

All this instability actually highlights just how powerless the Russian economy truly is. Between the mounting costs of the war and the weight of these sanctions—especially if they persist for another six months or a year—we're looking at a devastating impact from which Russia won't recover easily.

Their only real way out is to go all-in and wrap this up as quickly as possible, but based on current trends, that isn't happening.

Since gas and oil are still flowing relatively steadily into Germany and the European Union, if the EU manages to build up sufficient stockpiles, they could potentially cut off those energy purchases during a critical moment—effectively delivering the final blow to Vladimir Putin's regime.

We have to remember—it's only day eight of the offensive. We have months, maybe even years, ahead of us. If this conflict drags on, even if Russia technically "wins," they'll end up as an economic dwarf facing massive internal strife and a deeply impoverished population.

I don't know what to tell you guys. It’s pretty obvious if you actually bother to look at the data. Are we really going to sit here and pretend everything is fine? Please. It's a joke. kaže:
Russians are fleeing their own country on the only public transit line left connecting them to the European Union. Apparently, people are freaking out!

Look, like I said before, they aren't going to stick around and complain. They’re just gonna run. And the ones who actually stay? They'll be dead silent.
Why would anyone bother risking prison time or taking a bullet? It’s a losing game. Even if they manage to topple Vladimir Putin and get those sanctions lifted, Russia is still going to be in massive trouble. What if they never actually bounce back to how things used to be? By then, the European Union will have already pivoted to other energy suppliers. That’s a total certainty. Everyone finally woke up and realized just how much they were leaning on Russia. They're sober now, and they aren't looking back.

Gary Wilson said:The Ruble took another hit today. We started the morning at 110 rubles per dollar, but we’re already looking at roughly 122.
A freefall, really.
Back on March 2nd, the Federal Reserve attempted a major intervention to stabilize the rate—likely by burning through dollar reserves—which briefly pushed the rate below 100. That attempt failed miserably, and if you look at the chart, those reserves just went up in smoke.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...to=RUB&view=1W

As time ticks on, we should prepare for shortages of imported goods and significant price hikes.
Consumer goods make up about 14.5% of imports, followed by machinery and vehicles at roughly 45%, and chemicals at 19%.

All this instability actually highlights just how powerless the Russian economy truly is. Between the mounting costs of the war and the weight of these sanctions—especially if they persist for another six months or a year—we're looking at a devastating impact from which Russia won't recover easily.

Their only real way out is to go all-in and wrap this up as quickly as possible, but based on current trends, that isn't happening.

Since gas and oil are still flowing relatively steadily into Germany and the European Union, if the EU manages to build up sufficient stockpiles, they could potentially cut off those energy purchases during a critical moment—effectively delivering the final blow to Vladimir Putin's regime.

We have to remember—it's only day eight of the offensive. We have months, maybe even years, ahead of us. If this conflict drags on, even if Russia technically "wins," they'll end up as an economic dwarf facing massive internal strife and a deeply impoverished population.

That’s exactly my point. You have no idea how much a middle-class Russian actually gives a damn about toppling Vladimir Putin. Does it even matter? Whether he stays in power or gets kicked out, they’re still looking at poverty. Honestly, most of them would rather just pack their bags and move somewhere else anyway.

Carl Sanders5 said:

I don't know what to tell you guys. It’s pretty obvious if you actually bother to look at the data. Are we really going to sit here and pretend everything is fine? Please. It's a joke. kaže:
Russians are fleeing their own country on the only public transit line left connecting them to the European Union. Apparently, people are freaking out!

Look, like I said before, they aren't going to stick around and complain. They’re just gonna run. And the ones who actually stay? They'll be dead silent.
Why would anyone bother risking prison time or taking a bullet? It’s a losing game. Even if they manage to topple Vladimir Putin and get those sanctions lifted, Russia is still going to be in massive trouble. What if they never actually bounce back to how things used to be? By then, the European Union will have already pivoted to other energy suppliers. That’s a total certainty. Everyone finally woke up and realized just how much they were leaning on Russia. They're sober now, and they aren't looking back.

That’s exactly my point. You have no idea how much a middle-class Russian actually gives a damn about toppling Vladimir Putin. Does it even matter? Whether he stays in power or gets kicked out, they’re still looking at poverty. Honestly, most of them would rather just pack their bags and move somewhere else anyway.

It won't be that simple. It’s not as if Putin will just let him walk away, nor is there any guarantee he'll be welcomed anywhere else.
Perhaps in Eritrea or Venezuela.

boldotter2 said:In Venezuela, a gallon of gas is about $0.02. In Libya, it's $0.03. In Iran, $0.05. Then you look at Syria and it hits $0.28.....

I guess we can pretty much see where this conversation is headed—comparing fuel costs to the standard of living.

Hold on just a second! Are you actually suggesting those countries aren't thriving? Honestly, if you asked me, I’d pack my bags and leave this miserable European Union for any one of them in a heartbeat. Right this instant. I could spend my days driving in circles on dirt-cheap gasoline until I eventually starve to death. Sounds like a dream, doesn't it?

Puma is pulling out and shuttering all its locations

https://twitter.com/ntvru/status/150...51oJoAVwQ&s=19