Sanctions on Russia

Carl Sanders5 said:You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.

There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.

As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.

Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.

Taking everything else into account, we should also mention that the ruling elite in the USSR didn't invest in a Western lifestyle or Western financial markets. Today, however, via the Oligarch, they keep much of their wealth in the West and are accustomed to a "capitalist" standard of living.

This means that beyond the state and military being drained, the leadership itself will feel the sting personally. And frankly, they couldn't care less about the general population.

Will Americans end up missing Russia—and everything else that flows out of there—more than Russians will miss us and our products?

One thing is for certain: Russians are reclaiming their spot as the primary villains in Hollywood movies, mostly while pushing Arabs aside...

silverotter72 said:Hold on just a second! Are you actually suggesting those countries aren't thriving? Honestly, if you asked me, I’d pack my bags and leave this miserable European Union for any one of them in a heartbeat. Right this instant. I could spend my days driving in circles on dirt-cheap gasoline until I eventually starve to death. Sounds like a dream, doesn't it?

They certainly aren't thriving, but they are surviving...

Venezuela 3-4

Iran, Libya 30-40

Cuba—sixty years under sanctions

Yet somehow, they still manage to live better than many people facing no sanctions at all, don't they?

slycobra5 said:Will Americans end up missing Russia—and everything else that flows out of there—more than Russians will miss us and our products?

One thing is for certain: Russians are reclaiming their spot as the primary villains in Hollywood movies, mostly while pushing Arabs aside...

But honestly, what could Americans possibly miss that would actually come from Russia?
Is it just the Russian vodka and those wild dashcam videos?

bluemason3 said:Taking everything else into account, we should also mention that the ruling elite in the USSR didn't invest in a Western lifestyle or Western financial markets. Today, however, via the Oligarch, they keep much of their wealth in the West and are accustomed to a "capitalist" standard of living.

This means that beyond the state and military being drained, the leadership itself will feel the sting personally. And frankly, they couldn't care less about the general population.

I'm not going to sit here and reply to every single one of you individually:
Technology? I don't want to sound like an idiot, but look at what Vedriti, the law professor, has to say:

He agrees that Russia is a tough machine, both politically and economically. They've got the energy and the food, but they're hooked on modern tech.
They'll figure something out through China and other allies, even if things move slower. They aren't just going to pop like a balloon...

The Oligarchs? Davor Štern says:

Putin comes from service circles that know exactly how to handle these kinds of situations; I believe he has the tools to keep them in line.

etc.

Dana Robinson4 said:They certainly aren't thriving, but they are surviving...

Venezuela 3-4

Iran, Libya 30-40

Cuba—sixty years under sanctions

Yet somehow, they still manage to live better than many people facing no sanctions at all, don't they?

Everyone, without exception, finds a way to enjoy life🤣

Dana Robinson4 said:They certainly aren't thriving, but they are surviving...

Venezuela 3-4

Iran, Libya 30-40

Cuba—sixty years under sanctions

Yet somehow, they still manage to live better than many people facing no sanctions at all, don't they?

Look, it’s not that they’re doing great, or even just okay. They aren't mediocre; they are doing damn well below average. I suppose if Putin's ultimate goal is to turn Russia into a third-rate nation, then be my guest. At this rate, we might as well just write them off for the next fifty years.

slycobra5 said:Will Americans end up missing Russia—and everything else that flows out of there—more than Russians will miss us and our products?

One thing is for certain: Russians are reclaiming their spot as the primary villains in Hollywood movies, mostly while pushing Arabs aside...

What Russian products, for heaven's sake? 🤣 In America? Caviar, perhaps...

You really read some wild stuff on this forum...

slyfox43 said:What Russian products, for heaven's sake? 🤣 In America? Caviar, perhaps...

You really read some wild stuff on this forum...

Just imagine when Trump runs out of his caviar. So sad.... 😢

slyfox43 said:What Russian products, for heaven's sake? 🤣 In America? Caviar, perhaps...

You really read some wild stuff on this forum...

Alright, let me lay it out for you.
Let's walk through it. The US imports Russian oil... though they don't really have their own Russian gas... well, they have some of that too. Ehm... oh right, Russian tech... no, that comes from some other communist country. Okay, I just remembered the Russian vodka... ah, actually, they don't even need that anymore...

But seriously now:
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/e...eurasia/russia
🤣

Russia's GDP is actually lower than Italy's. They’re dumping about 4% of their GDP into the military, which is way higher than everyone else. I guess if you tank their GDP, you end up weakening their military too. But, uh, that’s not happening tomorrow, or even next month, or maybe even in six months.

So, why did the Russians break up the USSR and pull down the Iron Curtain? Was it because they suddenly realized it wasn't fair to bully other nations? Yeah, right. No, it’s just because they couldn't afford it anymore. We need to get Russia back to that point. We have to weaken them since they're a threat, and the European Union really needs to step up and find a way to counter Russia.

The USA isn't going to go to war for Europe. You can see that clearly now. Trump hit the nail on the head—like, they aren't seriously going to jump into a war over Mexico, right? Now Blinken is out here saying, "Oh, if NATO gets attacked, we'll defend them." It feels like empty rhetoric to me, because he knows deep down it won't happen.

That's why NATO will probably just sit there watching while the bloodshed destroys a country they promised to bring into the fold. Even if sanctions actually work—which, who knows, maybe they will—it could take years. Ukraine, I guess you better be ready for that. You're on your own.

I'm looking at the GDP per country:

Germany 4,230,172 (million USD)
United Kingdom 3,108,416
France 2,940,428
Italy 2,120,232
Russia 1,647,568

And here are the percentages being set aside for defense spending
Germany 1.4%
United Kingdom 2.2%
France 2.1%
Italy 1.6%
Russia 4.3%

Based on these numbers, Germany's total expenditure is barely lower than what Russia pours into its military. Even though those four major European powers completely dwarf Russia in scale, they still act like total pushovers.

How long do you think these sanctions actually stick once the war is over?
Would they stay in place if Putin comes out on top? Like, if we just end up back at the pre-February status quo? Or maybe even going back to how things were before 2014? Or is this something that stays active until Putin finally steps down?

Morgan Brown4 said:How long do you think these sanctions actually stick once the war is over?
Would they stay in place if Putin comes out on top? Like, if we just end up back at the pre-February status quo? Or maybe even going back to how things were before 2014? Or is this something that stays active until Putin finally steps down?

Given this latest blow—with Mastercard and Visa pulling out of Russia—we’re looking at a massive run on the banks as everyone rushes to grab their cash.
What’s the solution there? Prohibit withdrawals? How are people supposed to survive?
If everyone pulls their funds at once, the entire banking system could collapse in just a matter of days.

It is truly difficult to wrap my head around the scale of this, let alone predict how long the fallout will last.
I honestly wonder if any economy can sustain this kind of pressure over the long haul. They might have to pivot to a barter system within Russia just to keep things moving for a while.

Forget about Mastercard and Maui; now Nike is out the door too. At this rate, he won't even have anything left to wear.

Russians without their Nike gear 😲

silverotter72 said:Hold on just a second! Are you actually suggesting those countries aren't thriving? Honestly, if you asked me, I’d pack my bags and leave this miserable European Union for any one of them in a heartbeat. Right this instant. I could spend my days driving in circles on dirt-cheap gasoline until I eventually starve to death. Sounds like a dream, doesn't it?

Reports suggest the whole point of these sanctions is to isolate and drain Russia—essentially hoping to spark enough internal unrest to eventually force a change in leadership.
But if we look at what happened with places like Cuba, Iran, or North Korea—nations that have lived under long-term sanctions—I suspect we can say with some certainty that nothing similar is going to happen here.

In fact, there is a real possibility that this entire anti-Russian campaign—which seems to be going way beyond just the sanctions themselves—might actually play right into Putin's hands by reinforcing his narrative that the West is an enemy of Russia. If that happens, it might just end up making them more unified than ever.

Dana Robinson4 said:They certainly aren't thriving, but they are surviving...

Venezuela 3-4

Iran, Libya 30-40

Cuba—sixty years under sanctions

Yet somehow, they still manage to live better than many people facing no sanctions at all, don't they?

Once you wrap your head around this, you have to wonder why all these disgruntled people don't just pack up and move to those countries where life is supposedly "better" than elsewhere...
I even heard that real estate is dirt cheap in Venezuela and Syria right now, so I'm sure we'll see a massive influx of people looking to buy once they realize it.

William Gonzalez3 said:Reports suggest the whole point of these sanctions is to isolate and drain Russia—essentially hoping to spark enough internal unrest to eventually force a change in leadership.
But if we look at what happened with places like Cuba, Iran, or North Korea—nations that have lived under long-term sanctions—I suspect we can say with some certainty that nothing similar is going to happen here.

In fact, there is a real possibility that this entire anti-Russian campaign—which seems to be going way beyond just the sanctions themselves—might actually play right into Putin's hands by reinforcing his narrative that the West is an enemy of Russia. If that happens, it might just end up making them more unified than ever.

I highly doubt that "banding together" includes the oligarchs. Most of them are way too tied to the West, and honestly, Putin can't really function without them since they're the ones holding all the wealth.

William Cooper11 said:I highly doubt that "banding together" includes the oligarchs. Most of them are way too tied to the West, and honestly, Putin can't really function without them since they're the ones holding all the wealth.

What these oligarchs actually possess is Putin's own wealth. If they truly had any backbone and began to resist, wouldn't they all eventually find themselves facing the same fate as Khodorovsky?