Sanctions on Russia

dustyowl29 said:Basically, all the crude gets blended together to create specific grades that fit whatever refinery needs..
Specifically, SAA offers a wider variety of crudes:

Arabian Heavy, Arabian Medium, Arabian Light, Arabian Extra Light, and Arabian Super Light

Russia also blends different types of oil depending on which market they're targeting..

So, yeah—a single refinery can process Russian oil, Brent, or Arabian grades interchangeably.

WTI is a reference oil brand used as a basis for pricing of US export oil mixture. It is a mix of heavy sour oil of WTI and the Gulf Coast with light oil of the Permian Basin. Other reference oils include Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and Dubai.

Not every type of oil gets blended, so I'm curious where you're getting that idea.

What’s the current outlook now that the EU is essentially cratering? Are we looking at this coming fall or winter, or does it drag into next year? Russia is naturally going to double or even triple its GDP because those sanctions were actually just part of the Russian playbook all along. Westerners simply don't grasp how to play 4D chess, and they are destined for failure.

Gerald Torres84 said:What’s the current outlook now that the EU is essentially cratering? Are we looking at this coming fall or winter, or does it drag into next year? Russia is naturally going to double or even triple its GDP because those sanctions were actually just part of the Russian playbook all along. Westerners simply don't grasp how to play 4D chess, and they are destined for failure.

Well, I had it completely backwards.

I honestly thought Putin was actually an American agent—fighting this war specifically because that's what the USA wants and profits from!

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...pe-2022-07-18/

The US Department of the Treasury reports that the federal budget pulled in $114.29 billion from oil and gas sales during the first half of the year. That’s a far cry from the 9.5 trillion rubles originally projected for the full 2022 fiscal year.

How much of a gamble are they willing to take? It seems they're actually pulling in more from Gas than initially anticipated. Honestly, alongside oil revenue, that's pretty much the only thing keeping their finances afloat despite all the sanctions from the West.

On the flip side, they can hit the EU economies directly just by turning off the tap. Of course, that's a double-edged sword—they'd be shooting themselves in the foot just as much as Europe.
They already did that when the war in Ukraine kicked off.
I wouldn't be surprised at all by a reckless move like this.

When you look at the situation with Russia, I honestly feel like the arguments for cutting off deliveries entirely carry way more weight than people realize

- Let's be real, gas just isn't the massive revenue driver for them that oil is
- They can't just flip a switch and reroute all that gas headed toward Europe to somewhere else; the pipeline networks going toward China and those heading toward Europe aren't connected, and they won't be for at least another 8 to 10 years
- They aren't going to be able to build new LNG terminals on their own without help from the West—and honestly, they probably can't even maintain the ones they already have—but those sanctions? Those are here to stay
- Europe is aggressively diversifying its energy sources right now, and since this is a strategic and political move rather than a purely economic one, the reality is that Russia's gas revenues from Europe are going to dry up in a few years regardless of what little games they try to play now
- Russia really only has about an 18 to 24-month window where they can use gas to cause actual headaches, specifically for Germany, before Germany ramps up its LNG capacity. And once that happens, we'll likely see sanctions hitting the gas sector too

For Russia, gas has always been less about the money and more about being a strategic weapon, whereas oil has always been the true economic engine. Maintaining current gas supplies offers them tiny, temporary gains, but if they actually pull the plug on deliveries, the potential leverage they gain could be a hundred times greater.

Russian oil products are giving Iran a hard time

Anyone trying to ride the wave of high prices right now is just chasing a quick buck.
China and India aren't reliable customers anymore, and you can't count on Iran or the Saudis either.

The West is really the only partner left that actually pays its bills on time—but apparently, those nations haven't quite grasped that yet.
They’ll figure it out once the damage is already done.

Terry Green3 said:https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...pe-2022-07-18/

The US Department of the Treasury reports that the federal budget pulled in $114.29 billion from oil and gas sales during the first half of the year. That’s a far cry from the 9.5 trillion rubles originally projected for the full 2022 fiscal year.

How much of a gamble are they willing to take? It seems they're actually pulling in more from Gas than initially anticipated. Honestly, alongside oil revenue, that's pretty much the only thing keeping their finances afloat despite all the sanctions from the West.

On the flip side, they can hit the EU economies directly just by turning off the tap. Of course, that's a double-edged sword—they'd be shooting themselves in the foot just as much as Europe.
They already did that when the war in Ukraine kicked off.
I wouldn't be surprised at all by a reckless move like this.

Are we talking about Russians in general here, or specifically Putin?

Look, Putin dictates how things run in Russia, but he also has the most to lose if Russia loses this war. And he’s got even more to lose if he just stops the war he started in the first place. So yeah, Putin is definitely the one gambling, because he’s looking for an exit strategy through some kind of "victory" just so he can stay in power.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Sure. You could look at it this way: there was a time when crude traded for as little as a dollar a barrel, and now we’re looking at much higher figures, so why complain? If they find it profitable to sell at a discount, that's their business. It works for them, and frankly, it works for me too.

Honestly, things are pretty straightforward when you look at stuff like this—if you're pulling in more profit than expected from sales, that's a win. Period. If you're making less—whether it's because volumes are down or the unit price dropped while volume stayed flat—then you've got a problem, since that cash flows straight into the budget and all expenses are planned based on those projected revenues. Looking at the numbers right now, they've hit about 75% of their annual revenue in just the first six months. Just remember, there were no sanctions during those first two months—so if they keep up this pace and the curve stays linear, we're looking at hitting over 150% of the target very quickly.

Terry Green3 said:https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...pe-2022-07-18/

The US Department of the Treasury reports that the federal budget pulled in $114.29 billion from oil and gas sales during the first half of the year. That’s a far cry from the 9.5 trillion rubles originally projected for the full 2022 fiscal year.

How much of a gamble are they willing to take? It seems they're actually pulling in more from Gas than initially anticipated. Honestly, alongside oil revenue, that's pretty much the only thing keeping their finances afloat despite all the sanctions from the West.

On the flip side, they can hit the EU economies directly just by turning off the tap. Of course, that's a double-edged sword—they'd be shooting themselves in the foot just as much as Europe.
They already did that when the war in Ukraine kicked off.
I wouldn't be surprised at all by a reckless move like this.

Even in a worst-case scenario, Russia will always find ways to cash in on selling oil, Gas, and other natural resources. The world is massive; it isn't just about Europe. Global populations are growing, and with them, demand follows.

Italy has officially inked a deal with Algeria to secure its gas supplies.

In addition to this agreement, massive contracts worth $4 billion have been signed to facilitate the exploration and extraction of new energy fields.

While Russia previously served as Italy's primary gas provider, accounting for a staggering 45% of their supply, Algeria has seized the lead since the invasion began. It is projected that Algeria will export 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Italy within this year alone.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...rs-says-draghi

gentleviper62 said:Even in a worst-case scenario, Russia will always find ways to cash in on selling oil, Gas, and other natural resources. The world is massive; it isn't just about Europe. Global populations are growing, and with them, demand follows.

You're forgetting that fuel actually costs money to produce and transport....

Putin claims he’s going to ramp up his own domestic tech capabilities, basically saying sanctions won't even slow them down...

And honestly, that’s just how technology works these days! You decide you want a computer today, you figure out how to build it tomorrow, and by the day after, you're churning out millions of units for profit...

silentnomad7 said:Putin claims he’s going to ramp up his own domestic tech capabilities, basically saying sanctions won't even slow them down...

And honestly, that’s just how technology works these days! You decide you want a computer today, you figure out how to build it tomorrow, and by the day after, you're churning out millions of units for profit...

But then you wake up and realize they don't even have enough potatoes to supply McDonald's.

Anthony Hill5 said:Italy has officially inked a deal with Algeria to secure its gas supplies.

In addition to this agreement, massive contracts worth $4 billion have been signed to facilitate the exploration and extraction of new energy fields.

While Russia previously served as Italy's primary gas provider, accounting for a staggering 45% of their supply, Algeria has seized the lead since the invasion began. It is projected that Algeria will export 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Italy within this year alone.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...rs-says-draghi

They were already exporting that much anyway...

Nancy Gomez26 said:It would be a massive drain on both time and capital. Not to mention, such a forced approach to spreading democracy would likely alienate the very citizens you're trying to reach. If people are satisfied with their current regime—if life in the kingdom is stable—there is zero incentive to overhaul the system from the outside. And let’s face it: the monarch will remain aligned with American interests for a long time to come, simply because his entire throne depends on it.

I don't know about that. The Americans thought they had a reliable pawn on the board, but now they look like they've been caught flat-footed.

The US and Europe are busy slapping on sanctions, while these "geniuses" over there just scoop up cheap oil and rake in the profits. Let's get real: the whole display of American military dominance and playing the global policeman exists for one reason—to ensure American industry keeps raking it in globally. You can't spend trillions of dollars a year playing hero for free; someone has to pay the bill. Do you really think the Saudis are just handing out favors for nothing?

The commission is basically telling everyone not to hold their breath waiting for Russia to flip the gas switch back on.

To me, this just reinforces the idea that economic sanctions like these don't really touch countries that have completely lost their sense of reason. I mean, their GDP has already cratered by 4.3% year-over-year, and honestly, they seem perfectly willing to let it slide even further because they’ve essentially reached a point of total mental burnout. If you ask me, at this stage, nothing short of military intervention or some sort of orchestrated regime change is going to move the needle in the medium term—and hey, the US certainly has plenty of experience with those kinds of maneuvers.☕

Nathan Evans78 said:The commission is basically telling everyone not to hold their breath waiting for Russia to flip the gas switch back on.

To me, this just reinforces the idea that economic sanctions like these don't really touch countries that have completely lost their sense of reason. I mean, their GDP has already cratered by 4.3% year-over-year, and honestly, they seem perfectly willing to let it slide even further because they’ve essentially reached a point of total mental burnout. If you ask me, at this stage, nothing short of military intervention or some sort of orchestrated regime change is going to move the needle in the medium term—and hey, the US certainly has plenty of experience with those kinds of maneuvers.☕

To be honest, the US doesn't really care about what happens to Europe; if anything, it serves their interests to keep profiting from their partner—or should I say, their colony (the EU). They aren't going to risk a direct military conflict, as that would ultimately jeopardize themselves as well. Looking at historical precedent, they haven't even dared to move against significantly more powerful states—like Iran or North Korea—so I doubt they would ever take on Russia. Europe really ought to stand up for its own interests, but to actually do that, they would first need to deal with the incompetent—or perhaps even traitorous—cliques in Brussels that continue to make such irrational decisions.

Paul Kern12 said:To be honest, the US doesn't really care about what happens to Europe; if anything, it serves their interests to keep profiting from their partner—or should I say, their colony (the EU). They aren't going to risk a direct military conflict, as that would ultimately jeopardize themselves as well. Looking at historical precedent, they haven't even dared to move against significantly more powerful states—like Iran or North Korea—so I doubt they would ever take on Russia. Europe really ought to stand up for its own interests, but to actually do that, they would first need to deal with the incompetent—or perhaps even traitorous—cliques in Brussels that continue to make such irrational decisions.

"Slightly more powerful," like North Korea? Good grief. 😁 🙏🙏🙏

Anthony Hill5 said:Italy has officially inked a deal with Algeria to secure its gas supplies.

In addition to this agreement, massive contracts worth $4 billion have been signed to facilitate the exploration and extraction of new energy fields.

While Russia previously served as Italy's primary gas provider, accounting for a staggering 45% of their supply, Algeria has seized the lead since the invasion began. It is projected that Algeria will export 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Italy within this year alone.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...rs-says-draghi

So, does that mean our plans to buy Algerian gas are dead in the water?
☕

BTW, I don't have the link, but people are saying iPhone prices in Russia have dropped back to February levels (if they aren't lying to me...). The ruble ate the dollar for breakfast.
On the flip side, the euro is tanking, and America is going down with it—except America won't be able to climb out of that hole after the new year. ☕