Sanctions on Russia

So, apparently the US GDP is up by 7%.
But what’s the point if those numbers aren't even grounded in reality?

dustyowl29 said:Sanctions don't just magically fix things in six months when you're dealing with a country that's supposedly this "wealthy." Besides, it’s really just the West slapping these restrictions on them—other nations are more than happy to look the other way and keep doing business with criminals.
We’re already seeing gas being flared because nobody's buying it, which is basically the same thing as burning through unsold wheat crops.
It's just a directionless, lost economic policy at this point.
The worst part? In a few years, once things settle down in Russia and some new leadership takes over, the West won't have any trust left to actually do business there again. They've essentially lumped themselves in with Iran and North Korea.
It's a pathetic situation for everyone involved—especially for Russia, considering how insanely resource-rich they are.

if that's the case, why is Russia hiding all their internal reports about what's actually happening inside the country??

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, I underestimated you, and I’m fine admitting my math was off.
But that doesn't change the fact that real GDP just doesn't tell the whole story if there's major deflation happening between the start and end dates.
Still, that doesn't mean a 4% drop in GDP calculations isn't plausible.
The real issue is claiming a 4% drop, because mathematically, that's impossible. If 1,000 foreign companies walked out of Russia—companies that made up 40% of the GDP—plus gas production tanks, oil production dips, exports crater, and car manufacturing drops by 97%... etc.—then a 4% figure sounds like pure propaganda to anyone with half a brain. Real GDP should be dropping in double digits.

Back in 2007, the agencies responsible for credit ratings were handing out AAA ratings to loan tranches that were already dead in the water. Serious finance professionals called it the fraud of the century. That's how the crisis jumped from the US market to the rest of the world—because foreign banks, individuals, and nations were buying those tranches.
And now you’re trusting those exact same institutions to do your math? 🤔.

Look, let's be clear: Putin lies shamelessly, but the situation isn't what you're making it out to be. ☕.

Unlike you, I don't trust either side. I pull information strictly from verified facts. For example, a verified fact is that the McDonald's in Russia actually has fries. They went a week without them, then the supply chain from other countries kicked back in. I don't get my intel from the news; I get it from talking to regular Americans, Ukrainians, and Russians on the ground.

I agree with the point made above: sanctions might not really start biting for another year or eighteen months, provided Russia doesn't find new supply routes and trade deals with countries that haven't imposed sanctions.

electricsurfer47 said:if that's the case, why is Russia hiding all their internal reports about what's actually happening inside the country??

Were you drinking last night, or is this just how you act every morning? ☕

Why would a country indirectly at war with NATO members go around publishing any kind of intel—especially economic or military data—about its internal situation? 🤦

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, I underestimated you, and I’m fine admitting my math was off.
But that doesn't change the fact that real GDP just doesn't tell the whole story if there's major deflation happening between the start and end dates.
Still, that doesn't mean a 4% drop in GDP calculations isn't plausible.
The real issue is claiming a 4% drop, because mathematically, that's impossible. If 1,000 foreign companies walked out of Russia—companies that made up 40% of the GDP—plus gas production tanks, oil production dips, exports crater, and car manufacturing drops by 97%... etc.—then a 4% figure sounds like pure propaganda to anyone with half a brain. Real GDP should be dropping in double digits.

It’s all five of them, really, though I haven't been digging into the specific Russian data points during this particular thread, or rather, I suppose it would be more accurate to say I don't particularly care to...
Whether someone on either side is telling the absolute truth or just spinning a yarn doesn't carry much weight in my daily life, so I don't see much point in stressing over it...

rowdyraven112 said:Were you drinking last night, or is this just how you act every morning? ☕

Why would a country indirectly at war with NATO members go around publishing any kind of intel—especially economic or military data—about its internal situation? 🤦

Well, they actually do release military info! They’ve announced plans to expand their army, and they’re constantly posting updates on destroyed targets over in Ukraine and how they did it. They even show off tests for all their newest weapons. So, I guess it’s totally possible they’d release economic data too, right?

wiredseal7 said:Honestly, what kind of bubble are you living in if you aren't watching how fast China is moving in the auto industry?

We’ve covered the server stuff plenty—concluded that NATO definitely has its hands in it (DNS resolution stuff).
But hey, it’s easy to play the ignoramus who didn't bother following the thread and just spouts nonsense because they fell for some gaslighting... 🙂

They’ll cook something up eventually, but it'll be watered down. Like, visa fees go up, more questions get asked, or wait times get longer.

Everything was explained thoroughly in my previous post, and your assertion that NATO is involved with those servers is a remarkably foolish conclusion. Is it truly that difficult for you to admit that you’ve fallen hook, line, and sinker for incredibly shallow propaganda?

Russians lie the second they open their mouths. Honestly, I don't believe a single word coming out of them..

So, gas prices and electricity costs—especially those year-ahead contracts, which shot up over 900% y/y in Germany and France—have absolutely gone through the roof. Meanwhile, winter gas storage isn't even full yet, and honestly, nobody has a clue where inflation in the US and the EU is headed.

Believe me or don't, but the amateurs running things have no idea how to actually set sanctions that stop Putin from making bank just by squeezing gas prices (that whole Russian gas price cap thing).
They can't let NS2 go online, and since they messed around with the turbines for NS1, it basically gave ExxonMobil all the confidence they needed to tighten the valves and spike spot prices. They aren't even worried about facing some future German lawsuit for failing to deliver.

Take this situation right now: the Bulgarians want to get gas from ExxonMobil at their old contract rates, regardless of whether they actually take the supply or not. Every time ExxonMobil bumps up the volume like that, it naturally drags spot prices down.
And the indirect response from whoever is calling the shots (whether it's the EU or the US embassies) is basically:

Mexico isn't the big threat to the EU; the real "Russian Trojan Horse" is further east: "Just say the word."

Eleonora Mitrofanov, the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria, basically said there’s nothing stopping them from delivering ExxonMobil gas.
Written by: Željko Trkanjec, August 27, 2022.

dustyowl29 said:So, apparently the US GDP is up by 7%.
But what’s the point if those numbers aren't even grounded in reality?

So, my utility bills arrived in the mail yesterday...

And honestly, screw all these sanctions. I mean, don't get me wrong... everything is fine, really, but I can't help but feel like while people are out there cheering about how we're finally getting back at Russia, I'm just sitting here struggling to make ends meet... as if my own empty pockets somehow serve as a victory for the cause... 🕺

I’m just waiting for the day someone comes up with a clever little saying like, "Well, at least we screwed over the Russians"...

brightheron64 said:So, my utility bills arrived in the mail yesterday...

And honestly, screw all these sanctions. I mean, don't get me wrong... everything is fine, really, but I can't help but feel like while people are out there cheering about how we're finally getting back at Russia, I'm just sitting here struggling to make ends meet... as if my own empty pockets somehow serve as a victory for the cause... 🕺

I’m just waiting for the day someone comes up with a clever little saying like, "Well, at least we screwed over the Russians"...

I mean, if you're running three AC units all month long, yeah—your power bill is gonna be a nightmare...

Nathan Thomas12 said:I mean, if you're running three AC units all month long, yeah—your power bill is gonna be a nightmare...

My AC was basically working overtime for about 30 hours a day all summer, living in a coastal condo down in Florida...🕺

Good luck trying to explain to my three daughters that taking ice-cold showers is actually great for your health, or that blow-drying hair is a total waste of time, or even that they don't need to throw their clothes in the wash after wearing them just once... 😉

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...r-deal-rosatom

The Canadians don't seem to give a damn about sanctions, honestly. They’re busy building two more reactors with the Russians over in Paks...😁

Donna Harris11 said:https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...r-deal-rosatom

The Canadians don't seem to give a damn about sanctions, honestly. They’re busy building two more reactors with the Russians over in Paks...😁

Look, we could totally be using nuclear fuel right now—and I don't mean we have to rely on anything coming out of Russia to do it. If we made that shift, we'd finally start cutting down on that massive coal consumption we're seeing across the US. Honestly, the only real headache is the timing. It’s just not the best moment to pull the trigger.

So, I’m seeing all this noise today about Gazprom opening up the gas valves for the Canadians—which, by the way, actually helps drive down those spot prices for gas and electricity across Europe—and everyone is spinning it as some kind of disaster. Honestly? It feels like nothing more than pure British spite directed at the rest of the continent.
Is this all just a massive play to clear the way for an anti-establishment right wing to take over the whole continent? Like, if they can just isolate everyone, maybe there won't be anyone left to support the EU, and then Ukraine's fate is basically sealed. Or... honestly, maybe we're all just dealing with a bunch of idiots. I can't tell which one it is anymore.

rustywalker82 said:So, gas prices and electricity costs—especially those year-ahead contracts, which shot up over 900% y/y in Germany and France—have absolutely gone through the roof. Meanwhile, winter gas storage isn't even full yet, and honestly, nobody has a clue where inflation in the US and the EU is headed.

Believe me or don't, but the amateurs running things have no idea how to actually set sanctions that stop Putin from making bank just by squeezing gas prices (that whole Russian gas price cap thing).
They can't let NS2 go online, and since they messed around with the turbines for NS1, it basically gave ExxonMobil all the confidence they needed to tighten the valves and spike spot prices. They aren't even worried about facing some future German lawsuit for failing to deliver.

Take this situation right now: the Bulgarians want to get gas from ExxonMobil at their old contract rates, regardless of whether they actually take the supply or not. Every time ExxonMobil bumps up the volume like that, it naturally drags spot prices down.
And the indirect response from whoever is calling the shots (whether it's the EU or the US embassies) is basically:

Mexico isn't the big threat to the EU; the real "Russian Trojan Horse" is further east: "Just say the word."

Eleonora Mitrofanov, the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria, basically said there’s nothing stopping them from delivering ExxonMobil gas.
Written by: Željko Trkanjec, August 27, 2022.

European Union gas consumption from Nov 1, 2021, to Feb 28, 2022, sat at 604 TWh.
Back in 2021, peak gas storage levels on Oct 21 hit 858 TWh (that's 77%).

European Union gas storage capacity as of Aug 26, 2022: 880 TWh (79%).

United Kingdom - 100%
Portugal - 100%
Poland - 99.6%
Denmark - 93.7%
France - 90.6% (119 TWh)
Belgium - 87.1%
Spain - 83.5%
Germany - 81.8% (200 TWh)
Czech Republic - 81.7%
Italy - 80.8% (156 TWh)
Slovakia - 77.6%
Netherlands - 74.2% (105 TWh)
America - 72.9% (3.5 TWh)
Romania - 70.7%
Austria - 64.3%
Canada - 61.7%

rustywalker82 said:Look, we could totally be using nuclear fuel right now—and I don't mean we have to rely on anything coming out of Russia to do it. If we made that shift, we'd finally start cutting down on that massive coal consumption we're seeing across the US. Honestly, the only real headache is the timing. It’s just not the best moment to pull the trigger.

So, I’m seeing all this noise today about Gazprom opening up the gas valves for the Canadians—which, by the way, actually helps drive down those spot prices for gas and electricity across Europe—and everyone is spinning it as some kind of disaster. Honestly? It feels like nothing more than pure British spite directed at the rest of the continent.
Is this all just a massive play to clear the way for an anti-establishment right wing to take over the whole continent? Like, if they can just isolate everyone, maybe there won't be anyone left to support the EU, and then Ukraine's fate is basically sealed. Or... honestly, maybe we're all just dealing with a bunch of idiots. I can't tell which one it is anymore.

I have no idea how much cheaper a Russian nuclear plant is compared to Western facilities, but in nuclear technology, certification is everything. That is the most expensive part of the entire game. How exactly are Russians supposed to provide the necessary certifications for their plants to be approved by European Union regulatory bodies when they are under sanctions? It sounds surreal at this stage. Sure, things can change in the future. But as I see it, reaching completion and actually starting up a nuclear plant seems nearly impossible while the Russian Federation remains under sanctions. Once a plant is operational, you run into the nightmare of maintenance and spare parts if you bought the technology from a nation that is sanctioned or effectively isolated.

Nancy Gomez26 said:I have no idea how much cheaper a Russian nuclear plant is compared to Western facilities, but in nuclear technology, certification is everything. That is the most expensive part of the entire game. How exactly are Russians supposed to provide the necessary certifications for their plants to be approved by European Union regulatory bodies when they are under sanctions? It sounds surreal at this stage. Sure, things can change in the future. But as I see it, reaching completion and actually starting up a nuclear plant seems nearly impossible while the Russian Federation remains under sanctions. Once a plant is operational, you run into the nightmare of maintenance and spare parts if you bought the technology from a nation that is sanctioned or effectively isolated.

I'm in the dark too regarding how much cheaper their bids are compared to the West. All I know is I've read experts saying that all those strict certification requirements are exactly what made nuclear power so uncompetitive in the first place. If you look at energy consumption trends by source, it’s clear nobody has been building them lately. I saw some news saying the Canadians managed to get the green light from the European Commission back in the day (since their existing reactors there were Russian anyway). Now, it looks like the Finns and Bulgarians backed out of their deals, so I guess Russia is just sitting on a bunch of leftover parts.

Honestly, it's all the same story when it comes to energy. You kick Russian gas, uranium, and oil out of the equation, and what happens? You end up with slightly lower supply and then prices skyrocket—not by a few percent, but by tens of percent across the entire market. Then inflation hits, and the Russians still walk away with the same amount of cash.

And check this out:

2022.

In a resolution passed Thursday with 513 votes in favor, 22 against, and 19 abstentions, representatives called for additional punitive measures, including an "urgent imposition of a total embargo on the import of Russian oil, coal, nuclear fuel, and gas as soon as possible," according to the press release.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/hr/p...sia-explained/
Which goods are prohibited from being exported from the EU to Russia?
The list of sanctioned products includes, among others:
...
- equipment, technology, and services within the energy industry
...

What does the ban on accessing the SWIFT system mean for Russian banks?
Theoretically, banks could still carry out international transactions without SWIFT, but it’s an incredibly expensive and complicated process that relies heavily on mutual trust between financial institutions.

It's hard to tell who really wants the gas valves turned off in Europe—is it Putin or the EU?
Either way, how is anyone supposed to sue Gazprom now for failing to meet delivery contracts?

rustywalker82 said:Look, we could totally be using nuclear fuel right now—and I don't mean we have to rely on anything coming out of Russia to do it. If we made that shift, we'd finally start cutting down on that massive coal consumption we're seeing across the US. Honestly, the only real headache is the timing. It’s just not the best moment to pull the trigger.

So, I’m seeing all this noise today about Gazprom opening up the gas valves for the Canadians—which, by the way, actually helps drive down those spot prices for gas and electricity across Europe—and everyone is spinning it as some kind of disaster. Honestly? It feels like nothing more than pure British spite directed at the rest of the continent.
Is this all just a massive play to clear the way for an anti-establishment right wing to take over the whole continent? Like, if they can just isolate everyone, maybe there won't be anyone left to support the EU, and then Ukraine's fate is basically sealed. Or... honestly, maybe we're all just dealing with a bunch of idiots. I can't tell which one it is anymore.

And you're seriously calling them idiots?!😁 Most of the pro-Russian sentiment in Europe comes from the left (mostly lingering nostalgia for the USSR), whereas on the right, it's usually just extreme fringe groups acting out of pure spite toward the establishment rather than any actual belief.

The best way to kill off that pro-Russian influence is to cut those countries loose from Russian oil and gas. As long as they're running on Russian fuel, Russia is going to have leverage to mess things up.

Eventually, Russia will find a way to pivot around those sanctions, just like Europe will eventually figure out how to stop leaning so hard on Russian gas.
The whole oil and gas market is bound to stabilize too—everyone’s basically just going to go their separate ways in the end.
Russia is simply too massive to actually collapse, and the West has already pulled so far ahead technologically that some dictator isn't going to be able to catch up.
In my eyes, the real losers here are the Russian people—well, at least the ones living in the European part of Russia—since they've always been more culturally aligned with folks in Europe than with China.

Adam Lee13 said:And you're seriously calling them idiots?!😁 Most of the pro-Russian sentiment in Europe comes from the left (mostly lingering nostalgia for the USSR), whereas on the right, it's usually just extreme fringe groups acting out of pure spite toward the establishment rather than any actual belief.

The best way to kill off that pro-Russian influence is to cut those countries loose from Russian oil and gas. As long as they're running on Russian fuel, Russia is going to have leverage to mess things up.

Look, man, just look at the facts. Electricity prices in France and Germany shot up like ten times what they were when those contracts were signed just a year ago. It was absolutely brutal. Honestly, I don't get how you can root for ExxonMobil keeping those valves shut. They’re literally just following the contracts they signed. Don't you realize that if they actually opened up the supply, market prices would tank? They aren't going to do anything that cuts into their profits.

When I was talking about future headaches and how anti-EU parties might gain momentum, I wasn't talking about people who are obsessed with Russia. Take the UK, for example. They pulled the plug on the EU, and I definitely wouldn't go as far as saying they've become pro-Russian because of it.