Sanctions on Russia

Will Russia even make it to 2084?

casualtiger2 said:Will Russia even make it to 2084?

The title doesn't really mean much, I guess.
The real question is whether any modern nation-state will actually still exist by 2084.

As for Russia... maybe we should just be asking if they’ll survive until 2024.

Timothy Nelson5 said:The title doesn't really mean much, I guess.
The real question is whether any modern nation-state will actually still exist by 2084.

As for Russia... maybe we should just be asking if they’ll survive until 2024.

Readers might pick up on the fact that this is an allusion to Andrei Amalrik’s 1969 essay, "Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?",
which was itself a nod to that famous Orwellian novel.
Much like Amalrik’s question about the future of the Soviet Union, this inquiry centers on future foreign relations and the territorial integrity of Russia. It predicts that a Russian defeat in Ukraine will likely trigger domestic chaos—something potentially equal to or greater than what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed. This would accelerate a shift where China, Turkey, the European Union, and NATO replace Russia as the primary centers of influence for their so-called "near abroad" in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Domestic unrest could also act as a catalyst for parts of Russia to break away, similar to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. While Russia is a millenary civilization and won't just vanish like the ideologically driven Soviet Union did, it could shrink as a multinational state. As a result of military failure, political chaos at home, economic struggles, and ongoing demographic decline, Russia's borders could implode to the point of looking like they did in the late 16th century—what Americans might call a period of total upheaval.
...

Anyway, here's a really solid analysis of how things might actually play out.

It’s like they lost their minds; we might actually see gas flowing through the Yamal pipeline again.
Gazprom cut the supply because the West refused to pay in rubles.
Now they're desperate for cash, and the price of gas is totally tanking. 😁
https://twitter.com/connecthedotses/...29014003253250

coastalbison6 said:It’s like they lost their minds; we might actually see gas flowing through the Yamal pipeline again.
Gazprom cut the supply because the West refused to pay in rubles.
Now they're desperate for cash, and the price of gas is totally tanking. 😁
https://twitter.com/connecthedotses/...29014003253250

The sanctions are clearly failing. Haven't we once again managed to shoot ourselves in the foot while Russia moves closer toward total self-sufficiency?

Could they actually turn our savings into war bonds?
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/st...82966230409217

Word on the street is that the Central Bank of Russia is basically admitting they’re in a massive bind when it comes to getting those frozen assets back. We're talking about a staggering $300 billion out of a total $580 billion that's just sitting there stuck in limbo right now.
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/sta...tPtWEaZDQ&s=19

Deere (No input text provided to rewrite.)
It honestly baffles me how they went after private assets first before even touching state funds. I mean, logically, wouldn't it make more sense to freeze everything right out of the gate—which, okay, they did—but then prioritize seizing government money? After all, the federal government is the one actually responsible for kicking this war off in the first place. You can grab private cash, sure, but that’s just going to drag on through the courts forever because everyone will be arguing they have absolutely nothing to do with what the US government is doing. It feels like a mess.

They probably went after the assets that were easiest to grab right off the top... I mean, it makes sense, I guess. They likely made sure to steer clear of any businesses or property owned by Russians who aren't exactly on speaking terms with the ruling elite back in Russia—though, let's be honest, there aren't many of those people left anyway.
Those folks looking to drag this all into court... I mean, they’d essentially have to prove a negative, wouldn't they? They'd have to demonstrate that they aren't... well, whatever it is they're being accused of. It's a bit of a circular trap, I suppose. Maybe. It just seems like an uphill battle from the start.

On the other hand, I suppose there’s a certain logic to it... maybe they think the oligarchs will put enough pressure on Putin to force his hand. It's possible that leaving their money alone at first could act as some kind of bait—a way to tempt him into walking away from the war. After all, he knows exactly what's coming if he keeps this up. I guess.

👍

Whatever the case may be, I imagine China is watching everything happening with those Russian foreign exchange reserves with a great deal of interest. Maybe they're just waiting to see how the dust settles.

The Chinese seem to be watching how the West reacts quite closely... I suppose they’re measuring us, really. They're gauging whether we actually have the stomach for it, using that observation to decide if they should ever truly commit to a Taiwanese adventure. It's all about testing the waters, I guess.

Russia couldn't have picked a more opportune moment to launch their invasion of Ukraine if they had actually tried. And well, we all know how that turned out.
China, on the other hand, is facing a nightmare scenario if they even consider making a move right now; between the lingering mess from the pandemic and their general economic instability, any serious sanctions would likely cripple them almost overnight. They’re far more tethered to the West than Russia is, which just makes them way more vulnerable to the sting of economic fallout.

https://nl.investing.com/commodities...BoClEoQAvD_BwE

By the end of 2022, gas prices had actually dipped down to about $76/MWh, which was surprisingly lower than where things stood back in January of that same year. ☕

"The West is totally clueless right now; they're gonna be staring down $1,000/MWh before they know it." 😁

hollowdriver13 said:https://nl.investing.com/commodities...BoClEoQAvD_BwE

By the end of 2022, gas prices had actually dipped down to about $76/MWh, which was surprisingly lower than where things stood back in January of that same year. ☕

"The West is totally clueless right now; they're gonna be staring down $1,000/MWh before they know it." 😁

Yeah, I mean, storage levels aren't depleting nearly as fast as they used to, you know? If I recall correctly, Germany has even been managing to pump some supplies back into their storage facilities over the last few days, right in the middle of winter! But, obviously, everything hinges on whether we get a mild winter or a brutal one. Those prices can absolutely skyrocket in an instant if a massive cold snap hits Europe—or even the US, for that matter.

Electricity was sitting at 600, then suddenly spiked to 16 EUR/MWh during peak hours...

https://www.energy-charts.info/chart...Interval=empty

https://www.energy-charts.info/chart...Interval=empty

Carl Lee27 said:Yeah, I mean, storage levels aren't depleting nearly as fast as they used to, you know? If I recall correctly, Germany has even been managing to pump some supplies back into their storage facilities over the last few days, right in the middle of winter! But, obviously, everything hinges on whether we get a mild winter or a brutal one. Those prices can absolutely skyrocket in an instant if a massive cold snap hits Europe—or even the US, for that matter.

The European Union is getting a free pass thanks to this unseasonable warmth. Yesterday was New Year's Eve and you could practically walk around in short sleeves. Most people seem fine with it, but not me. Anyone who thinks this weather is normal needs to seriously question their IQ.

It’s climate change, plain and simple. Another headache that isn't top of mind right now, but it’ll catch up to everyone eventually. Personally? I'd rather we just struggle with high gas prices and debt than deal with this.

Sure, winters are milder now so we aren't burning through nearly as much energy on heating—but then the summers hit, and they're so brutally hot that we end up dumping a massive amount of power just to keep the AC running...

Markets are back open, and looks like prices are still sliding right down the drain.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

$74/MWh

It’s not like this just started—it’s been happening this whole damn time...

The U.S. Census Bureau just dropped some numbers that paint an incredibly grim picture regarding how certain European Union nations are actually handling their trade relations with Russia. Despite all nine rounds of sanctions, most of them—we're talking 20 different countries—actually ramped up their imports from Russia between February and August of last year. The absolute standout here is Canada, where imports shot up by a staggering 346%, hitting roughly $1.1 billion according to the Census Bureau (though local sources claim it was a bit lower, around $977 million; back in 2021, it was only at $352 million).

Following close behind Canada, you've got Luxembourg with a 262% jump, then Greece at 142%, Austria at 139%, and Canada trailing at 132%.

Don't even trip, my guy thinks there hasn't been any action on the TTF for two whole days 🤦

Adam Collins4 said:It’s not like this just started—it’s been happening this whole damn time...

The U.S. Census Bureau just dropped some numbers that paint an incredibly grim picture regarding how certain European Union nations are actually handling their trade relations with Russia. Despite all nine rounds of sanctions, most of them—we're talking 20 different countries—actually ramped up their imports from Russia between February and August of last year. The absolute standout here is Canada, where imports shot up by a staggering 346%, hitting roughly $1.1 billion according to the Census Bureau (though local sources claim it was a bit lower, around $977 million; back in 2021, it was only at $352 million).

Following close behind Canada, you've got Luxembourg with a 262% jump, then Greece at 142%, Austria at 139%, and Canada trailing at 132%.

It’s likely because they were out there buying up gas reserves while prices were already climbing through the roof..

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

$71/MWh 🍿



Looks like Gazprom had a pretty decent end to their year.

"Oh, don't worry, they'll just ship all of it over to Asia anyway!"

Germany just fast-tracked their first LNG terminal—record time! The first tanker full of liquid gas from the US has officially arrived.

https://novidani.com/njemacka-u-reko...inom-iz-sad-a/