Sanctions on Russia

So, word on the street is that the Russians have apparently backed down on demanding gas payments in rubles... looks like we can go back to paying in whatever currency is actually listed in the contract. 😬

It seems they’ve finally hit the "sell to anyone, regardless of the currency" stage of the game, hasn't it?
Russia has never looked more dominant while the West struggles through freezing temperatures and food shortages. ☕

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rfe.../32202098.html

That southern storm really did a number on them... I mean, if you ask me, global warming always finds its moment when it's most inconvenient. 😬

Andrew Booth29 said:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rfe.../32202098.html

That southern storm really did a number on them... I mean, if you ask me, global warming always finds its moment when it's most inconvenient. 😬

The Russian gas blackmail plan just had an epic backfire.

They played their strongest card—their absolute ace in the hole, call it whatever you want—way too early. They didn't even stop to think about what happens if we get a warm winter. They choked off the supply in the fall, but Mother Nature doesn't care about their desperate need for hard currency.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlgxWiSW...ng&name=medium

A map showing temperature anomalies for Europe compared to the average since '81.

hollowdriver13 said:The Russian gas blackmail plan just had an epic backfire.

They played their strongest card—their absolute ace in the hole, call it whatever you want—way too early. They didn't even stop to think about what happens if we get a warm winter. They choked off the supply in the fall, but Mother Nature doesn't care about their desperate need for hard currency.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlgxWiSW...ng&name=medium

A map showing temperature anomalies for Europe compared to the average since '81.

Winter has only just begun, and people seem to forget that today's climate patterns are defined by much more extreme temperature swings than before.

It looks like the Chinese government has started cutting back on those energy imports again, so we can kiss those "massive" hydrocarbon orders goodbye.

Andrew Booth29 said:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rfe.../32202098.html

That southern storm really did a number on them... I mean, if you ask me, global warming always finds its moment when it's most inconvenient. 😬

The weather in the States is famously unpredictable—we could easily see a massive cold snap hit in January or February.
But yeah, we're already halfway through January and there’s zero sign of anything actually getting cold. It’s been staying above freezing the whole time.

George Robinson43 said:It looks like the Chinese government has started cutting back on those energy imports again, so we can kiss those "massive" hydrocarbon orders goodbye.

Are you talking about the infected bats from the Ukrainian biolabs?

Sean Reed3 said:Are you talking about the infected bats from the Ukrainian biolabs?

Exactly! They flew right over the Rocky Mountains, soared across Alaska, and headed straight through the Gobi Desert toward Chinese markets, landing right among the raccoons and snakes.
As soon as they arrived, the Chinese people went absolutely wild searching for them and started gorging themselves.
And now, look at the mess they're in.
It’s quite simple: those Ukrainian people completely ruined the gas and oil exports to China with their little bat problem.

Wall Street is moving, but prices just keep sliding down

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

70€/MWh

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

$56 - Urals crude

The losses on the Russian exchange at the end of 2022

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...22901154287617

hollowdriver13 said:Wall Street is moving, but prices just keep sliding down

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

70€/MWh

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

$56 - Urals crude

The losses on the Russian exchange at the end of 2022

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...22901154287617

🙂Prices are gonna tank even more. Russians will be praying anyone buys their stuff at those capped prices the European Union set, especially since China and India are already scoring 30% discounts. They're gonna be broke as can be.🤣🤣

dustyowl29 said:The weather in the States is famously unpredictable—we could easily see a massive cold snap hit in January or February.
But yeah, we're already halfway through January and there’s zero sign of anything actually getting cold. It’s been staying above freezing the whole time.

Yeah, a cold front could certainly roll in, but the warehouses are packed to the brim because of this warm spell. Every extra week of warmth is a win. If this keeps up just a little longer, we might actually be out of the woods. 😬

Andrew Booth29 said:Yeah, a cold front could certainly roll in, but the warehouses are packed to the brim because of this warm spell. Every extra week of warmth is a win. If this keeps up just a little longer, we might actually be out of the woods. 😬

Then you’ve got all these recessionary hints, China dealing with COVID...
The Saudi leadership has been playing a sneaky game with the West, cutting production right when the crisis hit hardest... even that senile Biden went there in person to practically beg them to ramp up, but they just brushed him off.
Back then, Trump—being the statesman he is—just posted on Twitter that Saudi Arabia needs to boost oil production because of those hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and they did it without even blinking.
Now, I guess American fracking might see a resurgence, and honestly, the green energy crowd could probably stop dodging accountability for their part in this mess and start focusing on policies that actually matter...

All in all, natural gas might just tank before summer hits.
And oil will likely follow suit.

As for Russian prices, the West can always make sure they stay well below market rates. Even if Putin tried his absolute hardest, he couldn't change that. 😁

It’s honestly wild to see this—for the first time, Russian oil isn't just following the usual global trends, it's actually tanking significantly below even the WTI levels. Looking at this chart, you really have to feel for the Russians and their neighbors because it looks incredibly grim; it seems like the West is doing a pretty thorough job right now of tearing up the very foundation and the last remaining stable parts of the Russian economy itself.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hDYygbV/Urals.jpg

Carl Lee27 said:It’s honestly wild to see this—for the first time, Russian oil isn't just following the usual global trends, it's actually tanking significantly below even the WTI levels. Looking at this chart, you really have to feel for the Russians and their neighbors because it looks incredibly grim; it seems like the West is doing a pretty thorough job right now of tearing up the very foundation and the last remaining stable parts of the Russian economy itself.
https://i.postimg.cc/7hDYygbV/Urals.jpg

Right from the jump, I’ve been saying this: no developed nation ever truly made it without the West and the dollar—not even China.
Let's be real—no country is ever going to actually make it without the West and the dollar backing them up.
Those Kremlin suck-ups were all over us—full of hot air—insisting that Russia was totally self-sufficient and that the West had basically shot itself in both feet.
Of course Europe didn't freeze over.

Andrew Booth29 said:Yeah, a cold front could certainly roll in, but the warehouses are packed to the brim because of this warm spell. Every extra week of warmth is a win. If this keeps up just a little longer, we might actually be out of the woods. 😬

And if you think things are getting better—well, December in Germany wasn't even that hot; it was just pretty much average, sitting right in line with the thirty-year norm:

In December 2022, the average temperature in Germany was 1.8 degrees Celsius. Thus December 2022 falls below the value of the previous year's month and lies exactly at the mean for the period from 1991 to 2020.
https://de.statista.com/statistik/da...n-deutschland/

hollowdriver13 said:Wall Street is moving, but prices just keep sliding down

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

70€/MWh

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

$56 - Urals crude

The losses on the Russian exchange at the end of 2022

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...22901154287617

Oil and gas are actually cheaper than they were before the invasion. Europe is basically scrambling just to stay warm, and honestly, they don't even know where to put all this extra gas anymore.
Where did that crowd go—the ones who were all over this thread claiming we’d be freezing solid and paying through the nose for fuel?
It would be pretty classy if they actually apologized for stirring up the panic with those completely broken predictions. 😁

honestly, where did all those self-proclaimed experts go? you know, the ones who were absolutely certain the European Union was going to fall apart by autumn and that WTI would hit $250 a barrel.

Jack Kelly5 said:honestly, where did all those self-proclaimed experts go? you know, the ones who were absolutely certain the European Union was going to fall apart by autumn and that WTI would hit $250 a barrel.

Total clown show.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Then you’ve got all these recessionary hints, China dealing with COVID...
The Saudi leadership has been playing a sneaky game with the West, cutting production right when the crisis hit hardest... even that senile Biden went there in person to practically beg them to ramp up, but they just brushed him off.
Back then, Trump—being the statesman he is—just posted on Twitter that Saudi Arabia needs to boost oil production because of those hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and they did it without even blinking.
Now, I guess American fracking might see a resurgence, and honestly, the green energy crowd could probably stop dodging accountability for their part in this mess and start focusing on policies that actually matter...

All in all, natural gas might just tank before summer hits.
And oil will likely follow suit.

As for Russian prices, the West can always make sure they stay well below market rates. Even if Putin tried his absolute hardest, he couldn't change that. 😁

Let’s be honest here. This is the actual oil production in Saudi Arabia for 2022:
January: 10.16 million barrels
February: 10.2 million
March: 10.3 million
April: 10.42 million
May: 10.55 million
June: 10.62 million
July: 10.82 million
August: 11.3 million
September: 11.1 million
October: 10.8 million

The talk of production cuts only started because everyone was forecasting a recession, seeing orders drop from China, and wanting to prevent a price collapse.
November: 10.45 million

Biden requested 12 million per day, but he was told it wasn't necessary—meaning prices are headed down, and the Arabs were right all along.
I am almost certain prices would be under $60 if Americans weren't busy refilling the strategic reserves.