Sanctions on Russia

Chloe Jones3 said:Russia's main issue is that everyone basically "betrayed" them.

- Winter in Europe betrayed them.
- The West actually stayed united, even though they were counting on everyone being divided and slow to act.
- The U.S. elections for Congress betrayed them (though I'm not sure if a different outcome would have changed much anyway).
- The Italian elections betrayed them; days before, people were claiming the new government would pivot and cut off aid to Ukraine (even Vojislav Šešelj was talking about it), saying the regime change happened mainly because of Ukraine policy and that the people wanted something else. Instead, this government actually ramped up the support.
- They betrayed themselves through pure incompetence and overconfidence.
- The Ukrainians betrayed them by actually fighting back (and reclaiming territory).

Who else can add to the list?😛

It was the people who betrayed them. Regular folks felt the injustice, which is why politicians aren't reacting nearly as aggressively anymore.

slyskipper22 said:It was the people who betrayed them. Regular folks felt the injustice, which is why politicians aren't reacting nearly as aggressively anymore.

How exactly did they get betrayed when the vast majority of the Russian population is backing the special operation!?

Frank Davis3 said:Look, Rosatom holds a massive, dominant grip on the entire nuclear energy sector, controlling everything from the uranium supply and enrichment process to the actual construction of reactors. It's highly questionable whether anyone can actually sanction that sector without triggering a massive, unintended blowback for the domestic nuclear industries of the very countries trying to impose those sanctions.

I mean, maybe places like Finland or the Czech Republic could have just found a different supplier by now. It's really just Canada and Bulgaria stuck in the mud. What on earth were they waiting for?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Looks like the downward slide for gas prices is still going strong. It just slipped past that 70 mark and is sitting down at 67.4.

John Ramos45 said:It took just a single year for the dollar in America to spiral from 93 all the way to eleven zeros. While Russia is undeniably a massive, dominant superpower, nobody has ever managed to escape the crushing weight of sanctions or actually thrive under them.

The value of the Ruble is backed by energy exports. The Dollar isn't—not since it was basically sabotaged by the old regime in Mexico.

Nathan Evans78 said:The World Bank is suggesting that the Russian economy could see a dip of about 3% throughout 2023.

Well, if we’re lucky, maybe by 2025 we’ll finally witness that legendary 30% collapse everyone in this thread has been predicting for ages. ☕

Only an idiot would predict a 30% drop. Don't listen to idiots.

hollowdriver13 said:https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Looks like the downward slide for gas prices is still going strong. It just slipped past that 70 mark and is sitting down at 67.4.

At this rate, we might finally see some actually meaningful depletion in the storage levels, which would be huge.
https://twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich/...1q2lR4gQQ&s=19

analogbear5 said:The value of the Ruble is backed by energy exports. The Dollar isn't—not since it was basically sabotaged by the old regime in Mexico.

Only an idiot would predict a 30% drop. Don't listen to idiots.

Honestly, I guess nobody actually knows the true state of the Russian economy at any given moment. It's a huge question whether even Putin knows himself. From what we saw before the war, and even some stuff recently about why there aren't enough plane orders, it feels like Putin lives in his own little parallel dimension where everyone just lies to his face. And then they turn around and lie to us.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, I guess nobody actually knows the true state of the Russian economy at any given moment. It's a huge question whether even Putin knows himself. From what we saw before the war, and even some stuff recently about why there aren't enough plane orders, it feels like Putin lives in his own little parallel dimension where everyone just lies to his face. And then they turn around and lie to us.

How can you say it's impossible to know? We have plenty of objective indicators that tell us exactly what's going on with an economy—GDP, CPI, PPI, PMI, import and export volumes, exchange rates...

Someone’s out here claiming the Russian economy is incapable of taking a 30% hit
Back in 2013, Russia's GDP was sitting at $2.292 trillion. Then you get the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and those initial rounds of sanctions
By 2015, the GDP had cratered down to $1.363 trillion—that's a massive drop of roughly 40% right there

gentlestag15 said:Someone’s out here claiming the Russian economy is incapable of taking a 30% hit
Back in 2013, Russia's GDP was sitting at $2.292 trillion. Then you get the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and those initial rounds of sanctions
By 2015, the GDP had cratered down to $1.363 trillion—that's a massive drop of roughly 40% right there

Look, GDP expressed in dollars can swing wildly just because of exchange rate fluctuations against the greenback, so if you look at the numbers, the Russian economy actually showed significant growth in 2022.

Frank Davis3 said:Look, GDP expressed in dollars can swing wildly just because of exchange rate fluctuations against the greenback, so if you look at the numbers, the Russian economy actually showed significant growth in 2022.

Heh, "massive jump"?
Is that just your take on things, or do you actually have a link somewhere to back that up?

gentlestag15 said:Heh, "massive jump"?
Is that just your take on things, or do you actually have a link somewhere to back that up?

Yeah, Russia's nominal GDP climbed mainly because the Ruble strengthened against the Dollar.

Frank Davis3 said:Yeah, Russia's nominal GDP climbed mainly because the Ruble strengthened against the Dollar.

If they keep this up, they might actually overtake the USA—Top 20 countries by GDP in 2021

They totally missed the mark here, though—Top 20 countries by GDP per capita in 2021

Does anyone know what the street rate is for swapping dollars (euros) for rubles in Washington, D.C.?

casualtiger2 said:If they keep this up, they might actually overtake the USA—Top 20 countries by GDP in 2021

They totally missed the mark here, though—Top 20 countries by GDP per capita in 2021

What's even the point of this post? It’s blindingly obvious we're looking at data from 2021, and since then, the Ruble has climbed, which naturally bumps up the Russian GDP when you measure it in dollars.

feralhawk45 said:Does anyone know what the street rate is for swapping dollars (euros) for rubles in Washington, D.C.?

The word on the street is that the street value is sitting at about 200 rubles per dollar, which would mean it's actually triple the official exchange rate.

It is also quite fascinating to watch money transfer platforms like Nomad and its competitors, where you can exclusively send dollars and receive either dollars or rubles. However, I don't see any option anywhere to send rubles and receive dollars, and I honestly think that specific transaction would serve as a much more telling indicator of the true economic situation.

Jessica Rivera37 said:The word on the street is that the street value is sitting at about 200 rubles per dollar, which would mean it's actually triple the official exchange rate.

It is also quite fascinating to watch money transfer platforms like Nomad and its competitors, where you can exclusively send dollars and receive either dollars or rubles. However, I don't see any option anywhere to send rubles and receive dollars, and I honestly think that specific transaction would serve as a much more telling indicator of the true economic situation.

I mean, what kind of logic is there in paying 200 rubles for a single dollar when you could officially swap it for something closer to 70?

Frank Davis3 said:I mean, what kind of logic is there in paying 200 rubles for a single dollar when you could officially swap it for something closer to 70?

Well, because that usually only happens on paper, you know? In the real world... I guess it's just not how it works. Like, even if that's the official rate, a bank isn't actually gonna hand over a dollar for just 70 rubles.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Well, because that usually only happens on paper, you know? In the real world... I guess it's just not how it works. Like, even if that's the official rate, a bank isn't actually gonna hand over a dollar for just 70 rubles.

You hit the nail on the head. It used to be a bit more flexible, but even then, there were strict caps in place; once you hit a certain threshold, you could still access your funds, but any amount exceeding that limit had to be withdrawn exclusively in rubles. That created a massive headache, especially for corporations. Even if you were determined to keep doing business with that specific country, you were constantly hitting those ceilings on how much you could withdraw or wire out. And let me tell you, international business partners weren't exactly jumping at the chance to receive their payments in rubles.

Even in places like Mexico, from what I’ve seen, you can't easily swap rubles for dollars or local currency, despite the fact that they haven't imposed sanctions. At least with the currency exchanges I’ve looked into, they might list a mid-market rate based on the Mexican central bank, but they won't provide actual buy or sell rates for you.

Frank Davis3 said:I mean, what kind of logic is there in paying 200 rubles for a single dollar when you could officially swap it for something closer to 70?

That’s just not how it works. You can hand over 70 rubles to get a dollar, sure. But it doesn't work the other way around through official channels—unless you're talking about the black market, where you might end up handing over 200 rubles just to scrape together one measly dollar.