Sanctions on Russia

Richard Wilson4 said:Tennis is a joke right now. Honestly, even the corrupt mess that is American soccer has banned Russia.

Tennis is an individual sport. A national soccer team represents a whole country, but a single player competing in a European league? Not really.

I guess all sports organizations ought to adopt some kind of clear procedure for situations like this.
When some fascist aggressor regime gets hit with sanctions, all of that nation's national teams get banned. That makes sense, I suppose.
But individual athletes in solo sports... if they want to keep competing, maybe they shouldn't represent their country anymore. They should have to make some kind of statement—something neutral, at least—clearly declaring they don't support their homeland's policies. And maybe they could make some appropriate donations to help the victims caused by that regime's actions.

Then, let people decide.

The Department of Justice is getting ready to start funneling those seized oligarch assets straight over to Ukraine very soon. As for that central bank money, though? Still radio silence on my end—at least, I haven't stumbled across any updates about it yet.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...T1L67qMww&s=19

Russia ended up being the biggest loser in Putin's massive gamble. Honestly, the world is better off without him.
Last summer, Putin cut off the natural gas supplies heading toward Europe. He was banking on the idea that Europeans would be freezing in their homes mid-winter and eventually turn on their own leaders, making it impossible for them to keep supporting Ukraine.
Man, what a disaster. This is exactly what happens when some uneducated cop tries to run the show for an entire nation. You can't just wing national strategy; that’s a job for actual, world-class experts who actually know what they're doing.

I wanted to kick off a different kind of conversation here. It’s not really about the sanctions, but more about the war itself.

I was digging through some data and found these population numbers from 2021.
In Russia, there are about 146.9 million people. Out of that, you've got 68.1 million men (about 46%) and 78.8 million women (54%).

I also read somewhere else that before the mobilization even started, roughly 6 million people had already fled the country—and most of them were men.

The stats I'm seeing suggest that around 110,000 have been killed.

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If this war drags on for another full year, how many men do you think will actually be left in Russia?

It doesn't really matter how many there are a year from now; what actually matters is where we stand in twenty or thirty years. That's when the real disaster is going to hit.

electricsurfer47 said:I wanted to kick off a different kind of conversation here. It’s not really about the sanctions, but more about the war itself.

I was digging through some data and found these population numbers from 2021.
In Russia, there are about 146.9 million people. Out of that, you've got 68.1 million men (about 46%) and 78.8 million women (54%).

I also read somewhere else that before the mobilization even started, roughly 6 million people had already fled the country—and most of them were men.

The stats I'm seeing suggest that around 110,000 have been killed.

--------
If this war drags on for another full year, how many men do you think will actually be left in Russia?

Look, the actual combat losses aren't even the most critical part here; they don't even come close to the impact on their already catastrophic demographics.
Essentially, this war is the absolute last-ditch effort for Russia to chase its pathetic imperialist pipe dream.
In 10 or 20 years, Russia won't even be capable of securing its own "original" borders.
If you look back 30, 50, or even 70 years, Russia had a much larger population than it does today. Is it any surprise that this war and these sanctions are just accelerating an inevitable downward spiral?
To put it bluntly, Russia is completely screwed. They aren't functioning on any level—except, of course, in their own propaganda.
Lp

Bryan Booth82 said:Look, the actual combat losses aren't even the most critical part here; they don't even come close to the impact on their already catastrophic demographics.
Essentially, this war is the absolute last-ditch effort for Russia to chase its pathetic imperialist pipe dream.
In 10 or 20 years, Russia won't even be capable of securing its own "original" borders.
If you look back 30, 50, or even 70 years, Russia had a much larger population than it does today. Is it any surprise that this war and these sanctions are just accelerating an inevitable downward spiral?
To put it bluntly, Russia is completely screwed. They aren't functioning on any level—except, of course, in their own propaganda.
Lp

They will. As long as they can maintain a modern nuclear arsenal—or at least project the illusion that they can—no one from the outside is going to touch them, provided they don't go chasing after more "special military operation" fantasies. My view? Russia will crumble from within due to demographics far sooner than they fall to external forces. The makeup of the country will shift, and politics will follow suit. It isn't as if all the various ethnic groups within their borders have strong population numbers to begin with.

Nancy Gomez26 said:They will. As long as they can maintain a modern nuclear arsenal—or at least project the illusion that they can—no one from the outside is going to touch them, provided they don't go chasing after more "special military operation" fantasies. My view? Russia will crumble from within due to demographics far sooner than they fall to external forces. The makeup of the country will shift, and politics will follow suit. It isn't as if all the various ethnic groups within their borders have strong population numbers to begin with.

No one in the neighborhood is going to attack Russia; the country is going to implode on its own. Once that happens, their nuclear weapons become nothing more than expensive, useless toys. They simply won't have the numbers to hold the federation together anymore. Is it any wonder they obsess over this "Russian World" concept? It's because the "Russian factor" is fading so rapidly that they're desperately grasping at shadows.
Lp

Actually, if you look at how they’re bringing in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic, I guess they're seeing a bit of a population bump right now.

They don't. If we're being honest, that specific demographic—which is already smaller than the population involved in the Ukraine War—shouldn't even be factored into Russia's numbers. And let's look at Russia itself: over the last two years, they've seen a natural population decline of roughly 2 million people. In 2021 alone, they lost about 700,000, following a loss of 300,000 the year prior. Once you factor in everyone who has fled or died, you're looking at a deficit equal to the entire population of a country like the US.

Donna Harris11 said:Actually, if you look at how they’re bringing in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic, I guess they're seeing a bit of a population bump right now.

Sure, that was part of their twisted logic, but let's be real—the cost is absolutely staggering. In the end, they’re going to lose far more than they could ever hope to gain from this temporary theft of neighboring territory.

For nearly a century, Canada served as a sort of demographic "overflow tank" for America, without them ever having to turn into an occupying force just to bolster their numbers. (They tried to pull that indirect move twice, but it fell apart immediately.)

The bottom line here is this: how can military conquest of a neighbor to boost population counts possibly be anything other than counterproductive? It makes zero sense!
Lp

RUSSIAN OILMAGEDDON 2023 | Crashing oil prices are gutting the Russian economy

I’m a little too lazy to explain this all out loud, so here’s the breakdown for anyone who doesn't feel like digging through the noise:

- Russia's entire budget basically hinges on selling oil and gas.
- Because of sanctions, their oil sales in 2022 dropped by over 20% compared to 2021.
- Things look even bleaker for 2023—since the European Union isn't buying anymore, they have to ship everything by sea (aside from those limited pipelines toward China),
which takes five to six times longer to transport, and volume is capped—plus, longer routes mean higher costs and more expensive shipping logistics.
- It’s the same story with gas. In 2022, sales were down 40% (ignoring the first half of the year when the European Union was busy filling up storage), and the pipelines to China and India
don't have nearly the capacity of the old ones to the European Union—not to mention LNG transport is even more restricted. The European Union will likely stop importing Russian gas entirely in 2023,
which is just going to make everything worse.

- On the flip side, oil and gas prices have been cut in half since their peak mid-year. Now, Russia HAS to sell what little they have left at $50 (even though the price cap is $60)—and they're selling to China and India at even cheaper rates, practically at the cost of production. Same goes for gas.

- Other sectors of their economy and industry are flatlining, most seeing at least a 20% dip compared to 2021, and 2023 could be even uglier.
- This hits the budget hard—the same budget that pays the salaries of about 30 million Russians. When you consider there's zero investment coming in—and there won't be, since the state is basically the only major investor left—and the budget was already running a deficit in 2022 (despite a decent first half), 2023 is looking grim, especially with the massive spending spike for the war.
- No new investment, a stagnant economy, and inflation is steadily climbing. For what it's worth, they have a decent director at their state bank—she almost quit back in February, but I assume they gave her the choice between staying or "taking a tea break" by the window—but even she can't fight basic economic laws.

- Right now, they're plugging the budget hole with reserves, but those are starting to dry up.

Conclusion: 2023 is going to be an economic disaster for Russia. If the war and sanctions drag into next year, things could get even worse—regardless of what the so-called Russophiles claim. They love to say Russia can fund this forever because they're resource-rich, or that Russians are used to suffering, or that everything is going according to some evil gnome's master plan.

The only thing that might save Russia is if they quickly lose the war in Ukraine!

We saw this coming at the start of the year—now, it's not just a prediction, it's actual data from 2022.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Tennis is an individual sport. A national soccer team represents a whole country, but a single player competing in a European league? Not really.

I guess all sports organizations ought to adopt some kind of clear procedure for situations like this.
When some fascist aggressor regime gets hit with sanctions, all of that nation's national teams get banned. That makes sense, I suppose.
But individual athletes in solo sports... if they want to keep competing, maybe they shouldn't represent their country anymore. They should have to make some kind of statement—something neutral, at least—clearly declaring they don't support their homeland's policies. And maybe they could make some appropriate donations to help the victims caused by that regime's actions.

Then, let people decide.

That would be a solid move. I'm not sure if it's already happening, but it feels like it isn't. It’s a shame because it would be a completely "free" sanction—one that carries weight by sending a message through famous, popular figures to the people in Russia, encouraging them to stand up against their own government, or showing that those who support the regime are being cut off from competition.

The athletes who don't support the regime are probably scared, but they could ask for asylum for themselves and their families. They could show a little more courage, couldn't they?

Thomas Walker84 said:That would be a solid move. I'm not sure if it's already happening, but it feels like it isn't. It’s a shame because it would be a completely "free" sanction—one that carries weight by sending a message through famous, popular figures to the people in Russia, encouraging them to stand up against their own government, or showing that those who support the regime are being cut off from competition.

The athletes who don't support the regime are probably scared, but they could ask for asylum for themselves and their families. They could show a little more courage, couldn't they?

If you're talking about courage, you also have to include the nerve required to prevent them from liquidating you once you actually secure that asylum. You're faced with a choice: a quiet chat over tea with the secret police, a sudden fall from a high-rise, or a dose of Novichok. Their mantra is "death to traitors," and they carry out that policy with grim consistency. Even those living in constant fear of the regime—those suffering from Stockholm Syndrome—tend to watch such executions with a certain level of approval. It’s a way of saying, "See what happens to those who don't comply." A certain level of terror must be maintained; otherwise, the very foundation of a regime built on fear begins to crumble.

Word on the street is that Russian banks are looking into alternatives for Apple Pay and Google Pay, and get this—they’re talking about little chips you can just stick right onto your phone.
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/new...en&_x_tr_hl=hr

I really hope that adhesive holds up better than my last DIY project, though honestly, I might just grab some duct tape and give it a shot myself, just to be safe.

https://artsakh.news/en/news/258076
Estonia wants to claim a 24 nm zone outside their coastal waters.
The plan—according to this source—is to run inspections on Russian civilian and *military* vessels passing through international waters in the Gulf of Finland.

😵
Tell me they're joking.

wiredseal7 said:https://artsakh.news/en/news/258076
Estonia wants to claim a 24 nm zone outside their coastal waters.
The plan—according to this source—is to run inspections on Russian civilian and *military* vessels passing through international waters in the Gulf of Finland.

😵
Tell me they're joking.

Nah, that's just total nonsense—classic clickbait from that portal that eventually went viral.

Even the former President of Estonia already weighed in, calling it "complete nonsense" and totally untrue.

https://mobile.twitter.com/IlvesToom...0N7y5t99b41GgA

I mean, those guys and the Finns aren't actually that crazy; doing something like that would be a straight-up "casus belli" under basically every international law out there.

Estonia and Latvia have officially kicked the Russian ambassadors out. It feels like we’re steadily creeping toward that next big step—completely severing diplomatic ties altogether. Honestly, I’ll take any bets on how much longer Russia can even hang around the UN, or really, how much longer the UN itself survives in this current format? It’s getting intense.
View on twitter

Carl Lee27 said:Word on the street is that Russian banks are looking into alternatives for Apple Pay and Google Pay, and get this—they’re talking about little chips you can just stick right onto your phone.
https://meduza-io.translate.goog/new...en&_x_tr_hl=hr

I really hope that adhesive holds up better than my last DIY project, though honestly, I might just grab some duct tape and give it a shot myself, just to be safe.

It’s basically just contactless payment like you get with a card, except you take the chip out and put it inside a sticker.

Carl Lee27 said:Estonia and Latvia have officially kicked the Russian ambassadors out. It feels like we’re steadily creeping toward that next big step—completely severing diplomatic ties altogether. Honestly, I’ll take any bets on how much longer Russia can even hang around the UN, or really, how much longer the UN itself survives in this current format? It’s getting intense.
View on twitter

they don't call it the Butt Hurt Belt for nothing, I guess. 😁