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Sanctions on Russia

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 135 views · 9.5K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4velvetcyclist95Jeremy Peterson4silentsurfer3rowdytiger13Carol Newman2William Anderson5Carl Cookfrozencobra50Paul Patel95Michael Davis10Gary WilsonGregory Ramos3slyfox43dustywolf13Tyler Jones6Larry Walker24Ashley Ramirez4Paul Clark80Adam Lee13northernangler8Nancy Ruiz5James Chavez91neonheron9 …
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8641 ·
The highest GDP the Russian Federation ever saw was back in 2013—hitting $2,292 billion.

The UK's all-time GDP high? That was last year, topping out at $3,190 billion.
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8642 ·
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.6

Just as a quick refresher for anyone following along—anything north of 50 indicates an expansion phase. ☕
Harold Nelson6 Harold Nelson6 Member
32 messages
joined Oct 2013
#8643 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.6

Just as a quick refresher for anyone following along—anything north of 50 indicates an expansion phase. ☕

They're swapping out imports for domestic manufacturing—basically turning into a closed economy. Their whole strategy seems to be building up local SOUR brands that can't actually compete on the global stage, but they'll thrive at home simply because there's zero competition. If—or when—Russia ever reopens its borders, all these manufacturers will likely collapse just as fast as those old state-run factories did after the breakup of the former Eastern Bloc countries.

Proof that sanctions are working... ☕
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8644 ·
Harold Nelson6 said:They're swapping out imports for domestic manufacturing—basically turning into a closed economy. Their whole strategy seems to be building up local SOUR brands that can't actually compete on the global stage, but they'll thrive at home simply because there's zero competition. If—or when—Russia ever reopens its borders, all these manufacturers will likely collapse just as fast as those old state-run factories did after the breakup of the former Eastern Bloc countries.

Proof that sanctions are working... ☕

They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.
hollowdriver13 hollowdriver13 Regular
705 messages
joined Feb 2022
#8645 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.

First off, they haven't launched 100 missiles in months.

2. The most recent strike involved 57 launches: 34 Shaheds, 17 KH-55s, and 6 KH-101s.

Are you seriously calling a Shahed or a KH-55 "high-tech"? 😁
Harold Nelson6 Harold Nelson6 Member
32 messages
joined Oct 2013
#8646 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.

I agree with what was said—everything is taking much longer than anyone anticipated. Still, I truly believe everything is heading straight toward a Russian economic collapse; all that talk about massive foreign exchange reserves, a strong ruble, or rising production levels... it's all just smoke and mirrors.
Donna Harris11 Donna Harris11 Active Member
164 messages
joined Oct 2018
#8647 ·
The Baltic states hit record highs for gas imports from the Russian Federation back in 2022

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...rs-2023-01-26/
Carl Lee27 Carl Lee27 Regular
368 messages
joined Feb 2024
#8648 ·
I’d honestly expect the Russian GDP to see some modest growth in the near future. You see, whenever nations start frantically shifting their savings into massive public spending sprees, you usually end up seeing a spike in GDP—and often a pretty significant one at that. Just look at how American citizens' savings fueled such an incredible surge in US real GDP back in the decades leading up to WWII; we're talking about a 75% jump in just four years, moving from age 41 to 45. That wartime production alone practically doubled the entire US economy.
As long as Russia has the cash flow to fund this massive expansion of their manufacturing base, they’re going to make it happen. And honestly, they can probably scrape together hundreds of billions of dollars relatively easily if they need to.

Personally, I wouldn't sweat those specific categories too much. If you want to know what actually matters, look at oil prices; that is significantly more vital to the survival of Russia's war efforts and the stability of the nation itself. At the end of the day, this isn't a society or a civilization with the kind of internal spark needed to truly dictate global trends. Their only real edge is geography—specifically, that staggering amount of resources they have per capita. When they can dump those resources onto the global market and snag a decent price, Russia is a powerhouse. But when they can't? Then Russia starts retreating.

By the way, did you see this? It looks like banks from China, Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan... well, everyone seems to be jumping on board with the US sanctions against Russian Banks.

Countries that Russia considers "friendly", contrary to expectations, fully joined the Western sanctions against Russian banks. According to RBC, this was announced at the Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday by Vice President of JP Morgan Alexander Rakhmanin.

According to him, “colleagues” from China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and even post-Soviet republics, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, refuse to work with Russian credit institutions that have fallen under restrictions.

Expectations that a queue of those wishing to Help Russia would Lin up in China turned out to be futiti : The largest "states" - Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank - refuse to accept payments from banks from the Russian Federation that fell under blocking sanctions, Rakhmanin said.

https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate...en&_x_tr_hl=hr
John Ramos45 John Ramos45 Active Member
73 messages
joined Apr 2023
#8649 ·
Donna Harris11 said:The Baltic states hit record highs for gas imports from the Russian Federation back in 2022

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...rs-2023-01-26/

Even if those numbers look high, they’re really just a drop in the bucket when you consider the scale of Russian operations.
Gregory Ramos3 Gregory Ramos3 Active Member
220 messages
joined Feb 2022
#8650 ·
Carl Lee27 said:I’d honestly expect the Russian GDP to see some modest growth in the near future. You see, whenever nations start frantically shifting their savings into massive public spending sprees, you usually end up seeing a spike in GDP—and often a pretty significant one at that. Just look at how American citizens' savings fueled such an incredible surge in US real GDP back in the decades leading up to WWII; we're talking about a 75% jump in just four years, moving from age 41 to 45. That wartime production alone practically doubled the entire US economy.
As long as Russia has the cash flow to fund this massive expansion of their manufacturing base, they’re going to make it happen. And honestly, they can probably scrape together hundreds of billions of dollars relatively easily if they need to.

Personally, I wouldn't sweat those specific categories too much. If you want to know what actually matters, look at oil prices; that is significantly more vital to the survival of Russia's war efforts and the stability of the nation itself. At the end of the day, this isn't a society or a civilization with the kind of internal spark needed to truly dictate global trends. Their only real edge is geography—specifically, that staggering amount of resources they have per capita. When they can dump those resources onto the global market and snag a decent price, Russia is a powerhouse. But when they can't? Then Russia starts retreating.

By the way, did you see this? It looks like banks from China, Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan... well, everyone seems to be jumping on board with the US sanctions against Russian Banks.

Countries that Russia considers "friendly", contrary to expectations, fully joined the Western sanctions against Russian banks. According to RBC, this was announced at the Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday by Vice President of JP Morgan Alexander Rakhmanin.

According to him, “colleagues” from China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and even post-Soviet republics, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, refuse to work with Russian credit institutions that have fallen under restrictions.

Expectations that a queue of those wishing to Help Russia would Lin up in China turned out to be futiti : The largest "states" - Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank - refuse to accept payments from banks from the Russian Federation that fell under blocking sanctions, Rakhmanin said.

https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate...en&_x_tr_hl=hr

Back when things were first kicking off in the spring, I stumbled upon this YouTube video where some guy was breaking down the invasion. He was using history to show how Russian wars are almost always tied to oil prices—basically, they go all in when prices are high and fold their tents the second they crash.

I couldn't track down that exact video again, so I just put together a quick list from memory of their invasions:
image
1. 12/1979 - Afghanistan
2. 08/2008 - Georgia
3. 02/2014 - Crimea and Donbas
4. 02/2022 - Ukraine
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8651 ·
hollowdriver13 said:First off, they haven't launched 100 missiles in months.

2. The most recent strike involved 57 launches: 34 Shaheds, 17 KH-55s, and 6 KH-101s.

Are you seriously calling a Shahed or a KH-55 "high-tech"? 😁

2. Fair enough, I might have exaggerated there.

3.
Despite no markings, experts believe the munition uses a computer processor manufactured by the American company Altera, RF modules by Analog Devices and LDO chips by Microchip Technology.[18]

Inspection of captured drones used by Russia during 2022 year Ukraine invasion revealed that The Shahed-136 Electronics were manufactured fra American - and EU-made components, such as a Texas Instruments TMS320 processor and a Polish made fuel Pump on behalf of UK-based company ti fluid Systems.[19]
John Ramos45 John Ramos45 Active Member
73 messages
joined Apr 2023
#8652 ·
Turkey has moved to impose sanctions on aircraft maintenance services for both Boeing and Boeing.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...62116541632513
gentlebadger gentlebadger Member
21 messages
joined Nov 2022
#8653 ·
John Ramos45 said:Turkey has moved to impose sanctions on aircraft maintenance services for both Boeing and Boeing.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...62116541632513

And get this—the sanctions aren't just limited to spare parts and repairs; they actually cover refueling too! Isn't that wild? This is definitely going to be an interesting one to watch closely.
Nathan Thomas12 Nathan Thomas12 Regular
265 messages
joined Apr 2022
#8654 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.

Right out of the gate, they told us sanctions were a long game. One year is nothing compared to the next 20.
Dana Martin95 Dana Martin95 Active Member
102 messages
joined Jul 2025
#8655 ·
The European Parliament wants EU institutions to jumpstart accession talks with Ukraine, start drafting a roadmap for them to join the single market, and roll out a tenth round of sanctions against Russia.

Zelenskyy says the pace of European sanctions has slowed down, and Russia is just adapting to them
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#8656 ·
Nathan Thomas12 said:Right out of the gate, they told us sanctions were a long game. One year is nothing compared to the next 20.

Sure, I get that, but it feels like some media outlets are just moving the goalposts. Even Zelenskyy seems to be struggling to see any actual progress here:

"We're seeing the momentum of European sanctions slow down while, on the flip side, this terrorist state is actually speeding up its ability to adapt to those very sanctions," Zelenskyy noted during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv.
Sam Alvarez4 Sam Alvarez4 Regular
303 messages
joined Sep 2014
#8657 ·
Not exactly what you'd expect from a neutral America:

Four Russian diplomats were declared persona non grata today, given just one week to leave the country.
Two from the Russian embassy, and two from their mission to the UN here...

Austria named four Russian diplomats, Two at the Russian Embassy and Two working at Moscow's Mission to the UN in Vienna, personae non gratae, the U.S. Department of State announced on Thursday.
Nathan Thomas12 Nathan Thomas12 Regular
265 messages
joined Apr 2022
#8658 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:Sure, I get that, but it feels like some media outlets are just moving the goalposts. Even Zelenskyy seems to be struggling to see any actual progress here:

"We're seeing the momentum of European sanctions slow down while, on the flip side, this terrorist state is actually speeding up its ability to adapt to those very sanctions," Zelenskyy noted during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv.

The real headache is going to be civilian aircraft, chips, and tech in general. We aren't talking about next year—we're looking at the long haul. So, honestly, whether their GDP is up or down right now doesn't mean much.
dustyowl29 dustyowl29 Regular
258 messages
joined Dec 2007
#8659 ·
Vučić:
I'm not exactly thrilled about it—but look, we might actually have to pull the trigger on sanctions against Russia.
Carl Lee27 Carl Lee27 Regular
368 messages
joined Feb 2024
#8660 ·
Man, you really have to look at these numbers because the budget revenue from oil and gas sales is absolutely cratering—we’re talking a massive 46% drop Year-over-Year! It's wild when you lay it out; back in January 2022, the budget was pulling in 795 billion rubles from those energy sales, but by January 2023, that figure had plummeted down to just 426 billion rubles.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilpric...-Year.amp.html

And get this—the European Union's embargo on oil derivatives is officially kicking in this Sunday.
It isn't just that the European Union is cutting off imports of these derivatives entirely; they’ve also hammered out a price cap for sales to third countries, which basically mirrors the restrictions already in place for crude oil.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...cts/index.html

On top of all that, word is the tenth round of sanctions should be finalized sometime during February.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...513e34d9898ce2

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