Sanctions on Russia

Bryan Booth82 said:No matter how hard you try, you can't argue with basic math.
The logic is dead simple: war is expensive, and someone has to foot the bill.
The more they have to buy at high prices while selling their own goods at a discount just to keep moving, the faster they'll run out of cash.
Sanctions take a long time to kick in—especially at the start—but once they gain momentum, they accelerate until they eventually crush the economy.

I would love to see all those people who constantly lecture us about how sanctions don't do a damn thing to the Russians still hanging around here in another year or two... but based on experience, I know they'll vanish just like 90% of the people on the Russia thread did.
Best regards,

Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

goldenpuma84 said:And at what price are our allies selling energy to Europe?

Did that cross your mind when you were talking about alliances...

Market price—because, you know, capitalism.

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

You're barking up the wrong tree.🕺
So what was the price of gas before versus after the sanctions?
Just in January of this year, Russia was sitting on a deficit equal to 5% of its GDP.

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

Russia basically has a tiny economy, about the size of Spain's.

Half of that is just oil and gas.

If the EU already sorted out their gas issues, then oil isn't even that big of a deal anymore. So what else is there left to take from a country like Russia?

So if gas prices are actually lower than they were before the war started, does that mean we’re just getting screwed by paying three times the normal rate right now?

I’m being dead serious here.

I get that prices spiked when those pipeline deliveries through the US started getting cut back, but why is it still such a massive hit for families while the actual market price is sitting way down?

placidtiger142 said:So if gas prices are actually lower than they were before the war started, does that mean we’re just getting screwed by paying three times the normal rate right now?

I’m being dead serious here.

I get that prices spiked when those pipeline deliveries through the US started getting cut back, but why is it still such a massive hit for families while the actual market price is sitting way down?

See, those aren't the actual spot prices for gas you see on the news; those are the prices set for future delivery. What we're paying right now is based on futures contracts—basically, the price of gas agreed upon several months ago that's just now being delivered today. The prices look shifted because of when that delivery was actually scheduled to happen.

So, if we lock in a gas price today for delivery in the winter of 2026, that contract is going to cost us $33.
Check out more details here: https://www.theice.com/products/2799...5508663&span=2

placidtiger142 said:So if gas prices are actually lower than they were before the war started, does that mean we’re just getting screwed by paying three times the normal rate right now?

I’m being dead serious here.

I get that prices spiked when those pipeline deliveries through the US started getting cut back, but why is it still such a massive hit for families while the actual market price is sitting way down?

European gas storage was being filled all winter—but obviously not at today's market rates. Prices stayed sky-high until those tanks were full.
Don't sweat it, though; the worst is behind us. In maybe 2 or 3 years, we’ll be totally decoupled from Russian energy and prices will stabilize. The future is bright and everything's gonna be just fine.
On the flip side, things are looking pretty grim for the Kremlin's regime.

If you just take a moment to weigh the old USSR military budget against what Russia is running today, it becomes painfully obvious that this modern version of Russia is nothing more than a paper tiger.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...figures%29.png

Everything is relative, isn't it? First off, you have to look at how military budgets across Europe have been slashed lately. And let’s be real—back during the USSR days, both Europe and the USA were basically laser-focused on one thing: confronting them. Nowadays, though, the US is clearly pivoting its attention toward the Pacific Ocean and China, which naturally leaves more breathing room for the Russians. It's all about getting more bang for your buck; honestly, one dollar goes a lot further for them today than it ever did back then.
And man, we can't even get into how much they’re still riding the coattails of the USSR! It’s not like Russia is just out there buying these massive tanks and heavy artillery from scratch today; most of that hardware is just the leftover legacy of those old Soviet billions. When you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, for the most part, you aren't really seeing modern Russian wealth in action—you're looking at the ghost of the USSR.

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

Look, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West might eventually pose a challenge to Western economies, but only to the extent that they can't find replacements for the energy resources they used to import from Russia. As things stand right now, they're managing just fine; they're actually doing better than expected.
As far as I'm aware, there are price caps on energy imports like gas and oil from Russia, not a total ban on importing them.

On the flip side, exports from Western economies into the Russian market never really had massive volume anyway, since Russia isn't exactly a huge or incredibly wealthy market.

The whole Narrative that sanctions will crush the West while Russia won't feel a thing is so incredibly naive that even serious Russian propaganda doesn't bother using it anymore. From the very moment sanctions were introduced, the message from The White House was clear: they would demand the lifting of sanctions in exchange for delivering gas or allowing grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Expect those demands from The White House to become more frequent soon, except this time, they'll be conditioning them on concessions made on the front lines.

I truly hope the West doesn't cave, no matter what happens... maybe never, and maybe not even then.
Best regards

Carl Lee27 said:Everything is relative, isn't it? First off, you have to look at how military budgets across Europe have been slashed lately. And let’s be real—back during the USSR days, both Europe and the USA were basically laser-focused on one thing: confronting them. Nowadays, though, the US is clearly pivoting its attention toward the Pacific Ocean and China, which naturally leaves more breathing room for the Russians. It's all about getting more bang for your buck; honestly, one dollar goes a lot further for them today than it ever did back then.
And man, we can't even get into how much they’re still riding the coattails of the USSR! It’s not like Russia is just out there buying these massive tanks and heavy artillery from scratch today; most of that hardware is just the leftover legacy of those old Soviet billions. When you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, for the most part, you aren't really seeing modern Russian wealth in action—you're looking at the ghost of the USSR.

If Ukraine were playing a drumbeat for Russia, Poland would be marching straight to Smolensk, while Britons and Frenchmen would be taking strolls through Red Square.

John Ramos45 said:If Ukraine were playing a drumbeat for Russia, Poland would be marching straight to Smolensk, while Britons and Frenchmen would be taking strolls through Red Square.

I disagree entirely. It’s quite simple, really: in the West, human life is treated as precious, whereas in Russia, it carries virtually no value at all.
There is simply no way any Western nation could stomach an offensive involving over 100,000 casualties. You would see massive protests in the streets and governments collapsing overnight.
The Russians, however, don't seem to mind. Not only are they indifferent to losing lives like flies, but they also show zero hesitation when it comes to leveling Ukrainian cities inhabited by Russian or Russian-speaking populations.

We’re talking about a scenario where Russia decides to strike somewhere else in Ukraine. The West has zero incentive to take any drastic measures when Ukraine is already busy dismantling the disorganized Russian orchestra, all while sanctions continue to gnaw away at the average Russian citizen's quality of life.

Bryan Booth82 said:No matter how hard you try, you can't argue with basic math.
The logic is dead simple: war is expensive, and someone has to foot the bill.
The more they have to buy at high prices while selling their own goods at a discount just to keep moving, the faster they'll run out of cash.
Sanctions take a long time to kick in—especially at the start—but once they gain momentum, they accelerate until they eventually crush the economy.

I would love to see all those people who constantly lecture us about how sanctions don't do a damn thing to the Russians still hanging around here in another year or two... but based on experience, I know they'll vanish just like 90% of the people on the Russia thread did.
Best regards,

War isn't about cash flow; it’s about raw resources. That is the only logic that matters here. This conflict won't end until one side runs completely dry. Right now, Ukraine is looking much closer to that breaking point.

analogbear5 said:"Sold" means those Chinese companies actually "sold" the stuff, they didn't "gift" it. And why wouldn't they? Profit is profit—no alliances here.

So, when America sells weapons to its NATO allies, what exactly are we calling that? Is it just an act of love? Or when those last few war profiteers turn around and hike up gas prices—or even blow up energy infrastructure—what’s the label then? Friendship, maybe? 😁

Rachel Richardson said:In scale.

You can smuggle in certain things, sure, but you can't move everything.
At the very least, they need to get enough to stay afloat.

This will push them quite far back into the past—it isn't exactly a simple fix.
It just isn't happening particularly fast.

Smuggling is rampant when dealing with European Union or G7 nations, yet trade with countries like India or China is actually booming, reaching volumes even higher than last year.

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

2021 Data:

37.9% of total Russian exports went to the European Union.
36.5% of total Russian imports came from the European Union.

2.61% of total European Union exports went to Russia.
3.68% of total European Union imports came from Russia.

What does the breakdown of those imports and exports actually look like?

Russia mostly pumps out energy resources, while they rely on imports for things like heavy machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics.

Noah Diaz said:War isn't about cash flow; it’s about raw resources. That is the only logic that matters here. This conflict won't end until one side runs completely dry. Right now, Ukraine is looking much closer to that breaking point.

So, when America sells weapons to its NATO allies, what exactly are we calling that? Is it just an act of love? Or when those last few war profiteers turn around and hike up gas prices—or even blow up energy infrastructure—what’s the label then? Friendship, maybe? 😁

Smuggling is rampant when dealing with European Union or G7 nations, yet trade with countries like India or China is actually booming, reaching volumes even higher than last year.

Just how "massive" can we really be talking about when we're looking at an economy roughly the size of Spain's? 😁

I am genuinely curious to see where things stand with the Russ once summer wraps up.

gentlebadger said:See, those aren't the actual spot prices for gas you see on the news; those are the prices set for future delivery. What we're paying right now is based on futures contracts—basically, the price of gas agreed upon several months ago that's just now being delivered today. The prices look shifted because of when that delivery was actually scheduled to happen.

So, if we lock in a gas price today for delivery in the winter of 2026, that contract is going to cost us $33.
Check out more details here: https://www.theice.com/products/2799...5508663&span=2

Nathan Thomas12 said:European gas storage was being filled all winter—but obviously not at today's market rates. Prices stayed sky-high until those tanks were full.
Don't sweat it, though; the worst is behind us. In maybe 2 or 3 years, we’ll be totally decoupled from Russian energy and prices will stabilize. The future is bright and everything's gonna be just fine.
On the flip side, things are looking pretty grim for the Kremlin's regime.

Thanks for the input. Makes sense to me now.

Noah Diaz said:War isn't about cash flow; it’s about raw resources. That is the only logic that matters here. This conflict won't end until one side runs completely dry. Right now, Ukraine is looking much closer to that breaking point.

So, when America sells weapons to its NATO allies, what exactly are we calling that? Is it just an act of love? Or when those last few war profiteers turn around and hike up gas prices—or even blow up energy infrastructure—what’s the label then? Friendship, maybe? 😁

Smuggling is rampant when dealing with European Union or G7 nations, yet trade with countries like India or China is actually booming, reaching volumes even higher than last year.

Russia is gonna cave because of the money—specifically that unsustainable deficit.