The start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

Jack Kelly5 said:That sounds like something you'd tell a toddler. If Russia ever decides to push toward the Baltic, I have a feeling NATO and the USA might just end up sitting on their hands... and staying right where they are.

If NATO fails to act, then that treaty is nothing more than expensive scrap paper.
The USA and the EU understand perfectly well that credibility depends on one thing: honoring commitments without hesitation. NATO functions as a system that demands total commitment from every player, yet in return, it provides far more collective strength than any single nation could muster alone. It’s up to Putin to weigh those consequences. My sense is that once he's finished in Ukraine, he won't even be dreaming of occupying Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia; he'll be too busy trying to hold onto power in the Kremlin.

bluerider63 said:Or maybe it’s enough to just stay out of their way, especially if you’re sitting right on the border, and just declare military neutrality.

Ukraine didn't provoke anyone; according to Putin, the mere existence of Ukraine is cause enough for war. When a dictator from a larger nation views a smaller neighbor that way, I suppose neutrality doesn't help at all.

Ukraine was militarily neutral until the annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine isn't the issue; Russia is the issue.

The folks in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia and Ossetia), and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) seem to realize that.

Russia feels so threatened that it attacks tiny nations with populations smaller than Moscow's. ☕

Ukraine is fighting for its future now—this struggle will decide whether they become a "Belarus" or a "Poland."☕

rowdytiger13 said:Honestly, how detached from reality do you have to be to not even stop and ask yourself, "Wait, why aren't even my usual allies backing me up?"
Even Kazakhstan refused to send troops, and they're supposed to be a loyal ally.

Every time I’ve ever chatted with someone from Kazakhstan, it was pretty much the same story—they desperately wanted to dodge the Russian military, but they were always terrified that what’s happening to Ukraine would happen to them next.
Plus, there isn't really anyone out there to step in and help them in the middle of Central Asia.

It’s been 56 hours since Putin started this whole mess, and the toll just keeps climbing—Russia has killed 198 Ukrainians, and that includes three kids over just the last two days. One of those children was in Uman, a Jewish town in South Ukraine.

(Ukrainian Ministry of Health)
----
Meanwhile, the reported death toll on the Russian side is sitting at about 3,500.

New footage shows a local standing up to the Russian Army near Melitopol, basically holding them at bay with nothing but sheer grit.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/sta...nqBKb2kmf0yfzA

"What the hell are you even doing here? Look, I'm Russian too, but I live in this state. You've got your own country, and we've got ours. Shouldn't you be busy fixing things back home instead? Is everyone over there loaded, living like they're in the UAE? You guys are nothing but puppets."

The Russians couldn't care less about how long this war drags on—it's not like they're punching a clock. They’re fully aware the West isn't going to step in.

neonheron9 said:New footage shows a local standing up to the Russian Army near Melitopol, basically holding them at bay with nothing but sheer grit.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/sta...nqBKb2kmf0yfzA

"What the hell are you even doing here? Look, I'm Russian too, but I live in this state. You've got your own country, and we've got ours. Shouldn't you be busy fixing things back home instead? Is everyone over there loaded, living like they're in the UAE? You guys are nothing but puppets."

This simply serves as further evidence of how the Russians act as brutal occupiers, aggressors, and killers.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Some might see it as mere symbolism, but it really isn't. You only light up the Eiffel Tower when there's actual state backing behind it...

France is reaching its breaking point here, and honestly, nobody wants to see that happen—especially since France has those nukes too!

Regarding the whole SWIFT situation, I actually posted about it yesterday...
The French Minister of Economy, Le Maire, has already weighed in on it.

Why does everyone keep bringing up nukes? No one is actually going to drop them over Ukraine—not the Russians, not anyone else. Honestly, how is this any different from what happened in Iraq or Libya? Maybe it's just because the Ukrainians look like us, or because they're part of the West and a democracy, so we feel more empathy and are even willing to take in refugees. International law is mostly a myth; superpowers simply do whatever suits their interests unless another superpower stops them. It’s strange that people are acting so surprised now...

Respect to the Ukrainians for refusing to bow down to brute force...

However, the roots of this conflict aren't quite so simple. As someone pointed out, this is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the USA, where the US fights via proxies. Looking back, it all traces back to Bush's push for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO in 2008; we are seeing the fallout now, with both Georgia and Ukraine being torn apart. My view is that the US has been pursuing a rather insidious policy toward Russia for a long time, ranging from supporting Chechens in the Caucasus wars—long before terrorism became a primary US concern—to various other matters involving Syria, Libya, and Nord Stream. To be fair, Russia isn't unique here; all major powers play the same game. The US is certainly profiting from this, as Russia will inevitably become an enemy to Ukraine, leaving Russian borders more vulnerable. Who knows what the long-term outlook holds, but the world will undoubtedly become a more unstable and dangerous place. A Russia that is economically devastated might actually pose an even greater threat to global stability...

In my opinion, only genuine cooperation and mutual respect between superpowers can lead to a stable world, though that seems unlikely even in the 21st century. Unfortunately, it's ordinary people, currently Ukrainians, who pay the price.

casualranger15 said:It’s been 56 hours since Putin started this whole mess, and the toll just keeps climbing—Russia has killed 198 Ukrainians, and that includes three kids over just the last two days. One of those children was in Uman, a Jewish town in South Ukraine.

(Ukrainian Ministry of Health)
----
Meanwhile, the reported death toll on the Russian side is sitting at about 3,500.

Can someone please explain why—likely because it's a Jewish child—that specific detail was highlighted twice?

William Anderson5 said:I’m fairly certain we might see them getting kicked out of SWIFT as early as today, especially given how bravely the Ukrainians and Zelenskyy have held the line. It's being talked about more and more. Even Italy announced yesterday that they’ve given the green light for it.

Either they actually pull the trigger, or they can just kiss any hope of independence from the US goodbye... forever.
Eastern Europe won't give them the time of day, not even 1%.

neonheron9 said:New footage shows a local standing up to the Russian Army near Melitopol, basically holding them at bay with nothing but sheer grit.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/sta...nqBKb2kmf0yfzA

"What the hell are you even doing here? Look, I'm Russian too, but I live in this state. You've got your own country, and we've got ours. Shouldn't you be busy fixing things back home instead? Is everyone over there loaded, living like they're in the UAE? You guys are nothing but puppets."

Watching this clip, it's clear that if a soldier talks back, he's dealt with immediately. This isn't the West, where you can't touch a Russian soldier without some human rights excuse being thrown in your face. Here, the cameraman would be gone just as fast—and nobody's going to bother bringing them to court.

The real question here is how much of Putin's invasion strategy relied on the assumption that the vast majority of Russians would actually welcome them as liberators—though, honestly, who knows what kind of delusional bubble that guy lives in.

Tyler Jones6 said:Ukraine didn't provoke anyone; according to Putin, the mere existence of Ukraine is cause enough for war. When a dictator from a larger nation views a smaller neighbor that way, I suppose neutrality doesn't help at all.

Ukraine was militarily neutral until the annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine isn't the issue; Russia is the issue.

The folks in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia and Ossetia), and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) seem to realize that.

Russia feels so threatened that it attacks tiny nations with populations smaller than Moscow's. ☕

Ukraine is fighting for its future now—this struggle will decide whether they become a "Belarus" or a "Poland."☕

How naive. Ukraine isn't the problem, but the USA is. Does anyone honestly believe Ukraine wouldn't have joined NATO after the 2014 coup?

It appears that Putin's strategy is to utilize war to force Ukraine into some sort of new agreement, perhaps something akin to Minsk III, which would be significantly more favorable to Russia—essentially a "Finlandization" of Ukraine. However, for that to work, he needs a living Zelenskyy; an agreement can only be signed with a democratically elected representative of the Ukrainian people, not with some installed puppet. His plan likely involves encircling Kyiv and other major cities to then organize negotiations. At that point, everyone starts playing their strongest cards. Entering these cities will, by all accounts, trigger intense guerrilla warfare and result in heavy casualties on both sides, though one has to ask who actually benefits from that. Politically, it hurts Putin, as the Russian people may eventually turn against him once they see the mounting number of Russian soldiers returning home in body bags from an unjust war. Zelenskyy emerges as a Ukrainian hero and secures his place in history, yet simultaneously, it remains a Pyrrhic victory, leaving behind nothing but leveled cities and a massive toll of civilian lives.....

Tyler Jones6 said:Ukraine didn't provoke anyone; according to Putin, the mere existence of Ukraine is cause enough for war. When a dictator from a larger nation views a smaller neighbor that way, I suppose neutrality doesn't help at all.

Ukraine was militarily neutral until the annexation of Crimea.

Ukraine isn't the issue; Russia is the issue.

The folks in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia and Ossetia), and Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) seem to realize that.

Russia feels so threatened that it attacks tiny nations with populations smaller than Moscow's. ☕

Ukraine is fighting for its future now—this struggle will decide whether they become a "Belarus" or a "Poland."☕

Yeah, sure, because Ukraine was such a completely different country before that coup where they ousted the legitimate president during those "national uprisings" fueled by Americans waving dollar bills and giving speeches at the Maidan. Everything changed drastically after that.

swiftjackal11 said:Three days ago, they were stuttering in fear before Vladimir Putin. Now, it’s only when they see things aren't going to plan that they start making noise.

The strategy here is simple... you don't try to fight superior air power and heavy armor out in the open plains... you take it into the cities, where those two advantages become pretty much useless.

That’s why the Russians haven't managed to take a single major city, and the Ukrainians are keeping their casualties to a minimum.

casualhound42 said:The Russians couldn't care less about how long this war drags on—it's not like they're punching a clock. They’re fully aware the West isn't going to step in.

I have to say, I'm feeling pretty strongly that they actually *do* care about the timeline, especially seeing how much they've been hammering Kyiv lately. Just look at that whole paratrooper operation near New York City—that was clearly supposed to kick the doors wide open for their armored units so they could quickly set up some kind of puppet government.
The way things are playing out now, though, it looks more and more like they're headed straight for a brutal war of attrition.

rowdytiger13 said:It’s funny... you don't see any anti-war protests happening across Europe, yet there are plenty in Russia. Of course, they get shut down by force, and around 1,700 people have been arrested.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-protests-crackdown

Honestly, it blows my mind that nobody is out in the streets across Europe, especially considering how much the media is freaking out and how much Russians are being hated on right now.

Do people in the EU actually buy this whole story that Putin just lost his damn mind and decided to attack peaceful Ukrainians for no reason whatsoever?!

How many people even know the actual background of this mess and how much the West is tangled up in this conflict?

Whatever, the damage is already done for both Russia and the EU, and most of all for poor Ukraine. I don't believe anything is going to be fixed through negotiations, nor do I think Putin has any interest in sitting down with Zelenskyy. You’d need some heavy-hitting, neutral mediator for that, and I don't see one in sight.

Now everyone is just turning a blind eye and acting shocked while Putin beats down Ukraine—especially those EU politicians who are busy freezing Putin's assets. 😵

I was just chatting with this CIA officer—you know, the one who actually called it and said Putin wouldn't go after Kyiv—and he was just floored. He told me, “I can’t believe it. I truly couldn’t believe it. He’s completely lost his mind.”
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

It really feels like once again, things were just totally caught off guard. It seems like there wasn't a serious realization about how bad an invasion could actually look, which left everyone scrambling. And because nobody was taking the threat seriously enough, no politician wanted to bite the bullet on making any concessions toward Putin. What an absolute mess! Honestly, it felt like anyone pushing back too hard against something like a second Minsk Agreement was just being seen as way too risky.

The level of unreadiness is wild—like, they don't even have extra food reserves sitting in Kyiv. I saw this comparison earlier where someone compared their situation to how prepared folks were during that conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It's pretty eye-opening.