Brenda Taylor13 said:So we're looking at a situation where he can't reach power unless he enters a grand coalition. Sure, Bernardić put together this huge pre-election front, but he knows better than anyone how much actual coalition potential he has once the dust settles. His only real shot at taking power without the Republican Party is if his coalition pulls in at least 65 seats. And if you look back at the 2016 elections—when the Republican Party collapsed its own government and the Democrats were led by the way more popular and beloved Zoran Milanović—his "People's Coalition" only managed to grab 54 seats.
Now, he’d need to swing 10 more seats than that just to stay in the game. I don't see that happening in any realistic universe. Honestly, even if he grabs 60 seats, he still won't have enough because he'd still be short by 16. He needs to start with at least 65. If he fails to take power after this, then a snap election is actually GREAT for him, because it gives him a second bite at the apple.
I don't get why you're saying Bernardić benefits from Plenković's fall and the Republican Party moving right, because if that happens, a coalition between the Republicans and Škoro is basically a done deal, and that's exactly when Bernardić is completely shut out of power.
In my view, you're looking at this too narrowly.
Bernardić isn't going to take power alone with just minority representatives and some minor leftist parties, whether it's now or in a re-run.
However, if the Republican Party dumps Plenković and forms a government with Škoro...
1) Bernardić (who the liberal media is currently mocking) will suddenly become their favorite target, as all the criticism shifts toward the Republican-Škoro alliance...
2) Bernardić gets to be the opposition leader (as the relative winner, he'll have internal party support), and since the ruling party always gets blamed for everything—and we've got tough times ahead—that could swing moderate voters his way. It would also likely motivate leftist voters more than right-wingers for the next cycle. He might not win now, but in that specific power dynamic, he could potentially scrape together a near-majority with minority groups and smaller leftist allies.
Either way, that's a better bet for him than a grand coalition.
If they go with a grand coalition where the Democrats are just a junior partner...
1) Democratic support will crater to less than half of what it is now. Leftist voters tend to be more politically engaged than the right, and they would punish the Democrats much harder than Republican voters would punish their own party for teaming up with Tomislav Pupovac, Milanović's faction, Bandić's crowd, and the HNS...
2) At the next internal party elections, Bernardić's chances of staying in charge would be about as high as my chances of beating up Mirko Filipović in a cage fight.
It's never quite that simple when you're talking about a potential Republican-Democratic alliance...