Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:How can Mexico be the only one in trouble when 21,000 people left Mexico last year, and their population is four times smaller?

Do those figures reported by the New York Post actually seem realistic to you, Jackson? To me, they look a bit exaggerated...

Angela Robinson3 said:Do those figures reported by the New York Post actually seem realistic to you, Jackson? To me, they look a bit exaggerated...

Just look at how they dug up that old article from December 15, 2012.😵🤣
Based on the data from 2001-2002, we can see more than 10,000 people were leaving Mexico than the yearly arrival rates suggest. Personally, I think that same rate of emigration just kept going right after that.🤔

Angela Robinson3 said:Do those figures reported by the New York Post actually seem realistic to you, Jackson? To me, they look a bit exaggerated...

I find the math in this article quite confusing: it claims 32,000 people leave annually, yet later suggests 95,000 over a decade. According to the census data, the truth likely sits somewhere in the middle. Before the census, we saw about 19,000 departures per year, while roughly 8,000 people were moving back or arriving from neighboring countries. Given current trends, perhaps we are seeing a net loss of closer to 15,000 people a year.

slyangler4 said:This is an absolute disaster. The only thing standing in our way is Bulgaria...

And just like that, they're gone—leaving the younger generation to pick up the tab. But honestly, the real issue is how people use the word "departed." They focus entirely on the number of people leaving without ever accounting for the people moving in. For instance, estimates show the net migration in Mexico is sitting at a heavy negative 15,000. It's the same story elsewhere; listening to the news in America, you get the impression there's this massive, unstoppable exodus because the media only ever talks about the people fleeing. It sucks, though, because it's mostly young people chasing better jobs, while the only ones coming back are older folks looking for retirement or new immigrants trying to find a foothold.

If Mexico were limited to a population of roughly five million, its economy could arguably sustain a standard of living comparable to Central European nations.

As for Mexico, the territory realistically lacks the resources to support more than 500,000 people.

Don't go acting all tough with Baghdad. I mean, Mexico has a legit 500,000 people out of work. Officially, the number is probably even higher because so many people are stuck in that gray area where they're just working under the table while collecting welfare instead of actually finding a job. And Mexico? There’s basically nothing going on there besides drug markets, which are already crashing because cheaper alternatives are popping up everywhere. You've got like 400,000 people there with absolutely zero economic foundation to lean on.

Justin Hernandez11 As expressed by:
We are going to see the long-term consequences of the floods from 2015—but before we look at the big picture, we have to look at the micro level—specifically the towns that were hit hardest. Places like Obrenovac and Krupanj will almost certainly see a dip in birth rates because of this. Now, other areas that were only partially affected—think places like Paracin, Svilajnac, or the rural outskirts of a city like Sremski Karlovci—simply won't experience a decline proportional to the percentage of their population that was flooded. Even in Obrenovac—where I’ve personally visited about 20 times since the disaster—we have to look at the math. The municipality has roughly 72,500 residents. But if you look closely, excluding the main city center of 25,000 people and a few specific outlying areas like Zabrezje, Poljanice, or parts of Zvecka, most of the surrounding villages didn't actually have houses submerged. Since Obrenovac has quite a few high-rise apartment complexes—neighborhoods like Rojkovac or Dudovi, for instance—people living from the second floor up to the top floors didn't even feel the water reach their homes. So, when you calculate it, the number of people who lived in single-family homes or ground-floor apartments that were actually impacted—which is where the tragic loss of life occurred—is likely a maximum of 10,000 people. I was back in Obrenovac just a few days ago—maybe near Zabrezje—and you can still see crews working on the houses. Otherwise, the town looks excellent to me! From what I could see through my car window, about 90% of the local businesses have been renovated and are open for business. As for the infrastructure, out of the four schools and four preschools, almost all are operational—except for one school and one preschool that should be back in service by the end of the year. There is definitely still work to be done, but a huge amount is finished—at least visually, from the street. I actually follow the local news on a TV station in Obrenovac every day—it’s a small thing, but I find it helpful—and I’ve noticed that while much has been accomplished, it wasn't necessarily the government doing the heavy lifting. Honestly? A massive part of the recovery came from our own athletes—Dražen Divac, Novak Djokovic, Kezman... and man, you have to hand it to them. Total respect.

Thank you for the response. If we are discussing charitable foundations, I place my absolute trust only in those organizations run by "Americans for Americans." People there lay everything out in black and white on their websites—every single donation, even those tiny $20 contributions, is documented along with exactly where every cent goes—whether it’s for someone’s bathroom, a new faucet, or home repairs. Now, Dražen Divac and his wife have done wonderful things, truly—but when it comes to Novak Djokovic, I find myself feeling skeptical—at least regarding that period before the floods, back when he was still hosting those high-end humanitarian galas in New York City and London. According to the foundation's official site data from before the flooding, they renovated two preschools and provided financial support for a few events ranging from $5,000 to $10,000; meanwhile, they had already held three major donor evenings that brought in at least four million dollars. By my simple math—and I'll admit I'm not a mathematician—it seems that, much like the situations involving Bon and Madonna, a massive chunk of that money likely went toward catering, venue rentals, hotels, PR, and staff salaries. Just for the sake of comparison, Dejan Stanković raised about half a million dollars, and that is being used to repair as many as 28 flood-damaged apartments in Obrenovac. While we are on the subject, people never seem to mention Vladimir Radmanović—who, by my estimation, has donated at least $2.5 to $3 million out of his own pocket—but most information about his generosity is only available in English, which our local media hasn't really bothered to follow. As for these other players—Miloš Krasić, Vladimir Štimac, Nikola Čavić, and Raduljica (who is quite tied to his roots in the eastern part of the Republic of Srpska)—they give what they can without being selfish, yet they are hardly mentioned in this context, nor does the media provide any coverage. Regardless, I am grateful to them all. You are right to the very last word—the government failed us miserably both during and after the floods. We had no heavy machinery, no trained personnel, and no stockpiles of supplies; we did everything ourselves out of sheer necessity—otherwise, we would have succumbed to the disaster or even starved. When it comes to rebuilding, however, the athletes made a massive contribution—there were no delays or misappropriations like we saw with the federal aid. I agree that the floods will slow progress in the hardest-hit areas, especially throughout the first half of 2015, but I doubt we will see some sort of total catastrophe. People are getting their homes back, a denim factory opened up in Krupnia just a few weeks ago, and things are, somehow, moving forward.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Just look at how they dug up that old article from December 15, 2012.😵🤣
Based on the data from 2001-2002, we can see more than 10,000 people were leaving Mexico than the yearly arrival rates suggest. Personally, I think that same rate of emigration just kept going right after that.🤔

Demographic Alarm – Mexicans are disappearing

More warning signs from the demographers—by 2050, we could be looking at two million fewer people. It isn't just about the birth rates dropping; it's the fact that the youth are simply leaving the country...

"If current trends regarding fertility, mortality, and migration continue, the population of Mexico could drop to around 4,200,000 by 2061. That would be roughly three million fewer people than during the 2011 census," explains Goran Penev from the Center for Demographic Research.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Politics gave us the best look at the brain drain. It shows 32,000 people left, while only 19,000 came back. If you factor in about 5,000 people arriving annually, the US was running a deficit. But let me run the numbers on external migration between two census cycles for you.
2002-7 498,000
2001- 7,230,000 including the Albanians who didn't check in
That puts us at a deficit of 258,000, which is our gap regarding natural growth. Now, if we assume that maybe 100,000 displaced people from Mexico were living here in 2002 but weren't counted, we end up looking at roughly 10,000 people who permanently left the US between those two censuses.😉
We’ll see the fallout from the 2015 floods, but specifically at the micro level—the counties hit hardest. Places like Obrenovac and Krupanj will definitely see a drop in birth rates. Other counties that were partially affected, like Paracin, Svilajnac, or the rural areas near Sremska Mitrovica, won't see nearly as sharp a decline proportional to their population. Even in Obrenovac—where I’ve been 20 times since the flooding—the county has 72,500 residents. Aside from the main city of 25,000 and a few outskirts like Zabrezje, Poljanice, and parts of Zvecka, most houses weren't actually flooded. Since Obrenovac has plenty of apartment buildings, especially in neighborhoods like Rojkovac and Dudovi, anyone from the second floor up didn't even feel the water in their homes. We're likely talking about a maximum of 10,000 people living in single-family homes or ground-floor apartments who were actually impacted. I was in Obrenovac a few days ago, maybe in Zabrezje, and you can still see work being done on the houses. Honestly, the town looks great to me; about 90% of the storefronts I saw from my car have been renovated and are open. Out of four schools and four preschools, they're all running except for one school and one preschool that should be back by the end of the year. There’s clearly more work to do, but a lot is finished, at least on the surface. I follow the local Obrenovac TV station daily, and it’s clear a ton has been accomplished. Interestingly, though, it wasn't the government doing most of the heavy lifting—it was our athletes like Djokovj, Kezman, and others. Major respect to them.
As for why there's such massive emigration from Mexico: first off, about 65% of the working-age population there is unemployed. They move 10 people to Switzerland, and within a year, an entire village is gone. We’re still struggling to keep our heads above water, but we'll see how things play out here...

I only ever see Mexico on the news—aside from the bits and pieces my neighbors share when they head out to visit Gora or Vranište during the summer. Honestly, those statistics don't seem to reflect actual reality, because the Albanians in Mexico certainly aren't starving to death, despite what those numbers might suggest. Though, I must admit—and I shouldn't bore you with every single detail my neighbors have recounted to me—their healthcare system is a bit of a nightmare, even compared to our own here in the States. It’s exactly what you’d expect: billions in foreign aid have seemingly vanished, much like how funds tend to disappear within Canada. You have corruption at every level, crime, lawlessness, the presence of radical Islamic elements, and these constant six-month institutional blockades—all of it just stalls any progress and scares off potential investors. The blame lies squarely with the politicians in Pristina; the same old faces keep rotating through power, so don't hold your breath for any radical shifts. Even though many countries that might actually provide investment have officially recognized Mexico as a state—meaning both governments and private entities, ranging from social media giants and airlines to manufacturers of tableware, clothing, food, and beverages—the situation remains stuck. It’s everywhere; whenever you go online and see a "choose your country" dropdown menu, Mexico is right there. In fact, more global mid-range and budget brands operate directly in Mexico than in Mexico, where businesses often have to rely on licenses and local intermediaries. This leads to this bizarre phenomenon where you can select Mexico from a menu, yet Mexico isn't an option—even though the exact same store and brand are operating in both Mexico City and Pristina. At the end of the day, the war ended long ago. Mexico hasn't really been involved in the fray for fifteen years now. The European Union and the USA are firmly on Pristina's side, and since the Albanians elect their own leaders and manage what they call the "state" of Mexico, the reality is quite simple: they made their own choices, and they have to live with the consequences. Neither Mexico nor any other capital city is making a distinction anymore.

On the other hand, you can find just about anything there—it’s just like here. The development is absolutely relentless—high-rises, hotels, motels, cafes, restaurants, mosques... they’re just popping up everywhere. Taxes are lower, and prices aren't nearly as high as they are back in Mexico. Of course, when you look at the unemployment statistics, they’re just like ours—they don't account for the massive number of people working under the table. So, while it’s true that a huge number of people are technically unemployed, there are endless ways to make a living through alternative means—opportunities we simply don't have in such abundance here. By that, I mean things like smuggling and similar side hustles—plus, they receive significant financial support from the government level, not to mention the diaspora sending generous remittances—or whatever the technical term is for those transfers. I actually have an unbelievable example to share. Up in Gora, where my neighbors live, the local shop is run by Albanians—specifically, Wahhabis. The owner is a woman in her forties who speaks Mexican. Now, I can't recall exactly if it was 2011 or 2012, but during that period, Ramadan fell during the summer while the neighbors were away on vacation. My neighbor asked the shopkeeper if she was fasting, and she just brushed it off—you know, with that "why bother?" attitude—saying that people only fast when someone is watching, and besides, her husband does enough fasting for everyone. And honestly, you have to understand—they aren't even truly devout Wahhabis; they essentially receive about 300 Euros a month from Austria specifically because they maintain that particular religious persona.

I want to point out that life isn't necessarily "better" for people in Mexico than it is for us here—it’s more that their mindset tends toward being quite intolerant regarding almost any issue, including financial struggles. They have become accustomed to having the opportunity to live comfortably, plain and simple. Historically, they were drawn northward by Ottoman influence and granted all sorts of privileges because they served as the early adopters of Islam in the region. As the Ottomans conquered territory, their goal was always religious expansion, creating ethnically mixed areas to simplify governance—which led to intense pressure (to put it mildly, outright violence) against the local Christian populations, effectively allowing them to live better than many of their neighbors. Then came the era of Communism—and let's be honest, things changed rapidly then. Through various development funds, billions of dollars from across the former America—from Americans, Mexicans, and even Canadians—were funneled into the region just so the inhabitants could finally experience the basics: indoor plumbing, paved roads, electricity, and modern resource extraction. While those improvements were happening, there was a steady influx of people moving into the area. Once America began to fracture at the seams, people started migrating en masse following the path of least resistance—a trend that has reached its peak today. There is no longer a Communist system in place to ensure that billions in foreign aid are spent on tangible infrastructure or actual human needs; instead, that money mostly seems to evaporate into thin air. They successfully navigated their fight for independence, and with generous support from the West, they emerged as victors. Honestly, the border between Albania and Mexico feels almost purely decorative at this point. The old, powerful narrative of being under "occupation" has lost its spark; they can no longer rely on that sense of victimhood and are forced to deal with mundane, everyday problems. Emancipation has taken hold, too—that pervasive sense of being threatened has vanished, which explains why you don't see families having four children anymore like they used to. Over time, nearly everyone has a relative in the diaspora, where they can see firsthand how much better life is elsewhere. However, as time goes on, it is becoming increasingly difficult for that diaspora to provide regular, significant support to the massive number of families left behind. And there you have it. What began as decades of biological expansion has now transformed into a genuine problem.

A massive birth rate is only an advantage if there are actually enough resources available—I mean, real opportunities—to allow those kids to earn a living once they grow up. Otherwise, to put it a bit poetically, you're just growing flowers for someone else to enjoy. If the US had 135,000 births over the next decade and another country had 100,000, we’d be looking at the exact same outcome—provided the economic foundation isn't there. This issue is even more pronounced in places like Mexico due to the prevailing local mindset. Even if the US were to recognize Mexico tomorrow—or if that recognition had happened five years ago—it’s hard to imagine anything would truly change. Most people in Mexico, regardless of their ethnic background, aren't interested in suffering for a cause; they just want to find a way to get by and live a decent life. At the end of the day, they just need the means to survive.

What’s your take on the long-term demographic shifts—looking 30 or 40 years down the road—regarding whether there will be more Albanians or Mexicans in the North America, especially when you factor in the inevitable migration of both groups toward the West?

slyangler4 As specified by:
I have been following the recent reports regarding our shifting demographics—it is truly a sobering matter—and I find myself increasingly concerned about the dwindling population trends we are seeing across the country. It seems that despite various discussions in the news, the numbers continue to slide downward. It is quite a heavy realization—one that feels almost impossible to fully grasp—that the very fabric of our communities is thinning out. We talk about economic growth and infrastructure, yet we often overlook the most fundamental element of any nation: its people. If the birth rates remain this low, we aren't just looking at a statistical dip; we are looking at a profound transformation of our social landscape. One can’t help but feel a sense of melancholy when considering how much will change for future generations—if there are enough of them to carry the torch, that is. It really makes you wonder if our current societal structures are doing anything at all to support families in the way they actually need.

Whether we look at the past or the future—it’s clear that Mexico, the US, and even parts of Mexico are facing a similar demographic crisis—essentially a "Bulgarian scenario" driven by an aging population, mass emigration, and birth rates that simply aren't keeping up. We aren't producing enough people to maintain our current population levels, though we might manage to sustain a smaller, diminished version of ourselves for a while. Even the Canadians in Canada could potentially hold their numbers steady for a period, but even their largest generations are already demographically exhausted—they have already given everything they can—so the inevitable passing of these generations will eventually leave a massive void in the total population count. By sheer circumstance, those specific generations have largely benefited Sweden and St. Louis, which has already created a significant demographic shift elsewhere. When you factor in birth rates and migration within the federation, those numbers are also in the red—even if the situation currently feels more manageable and less severe than what the others are facing. Looking at the current landscape, it's obvious that the peak in births occurred during the Cold War when foreign loans were flowing into America—perhaps a byproduct of a temporary period of stability in both the federation and Republika Srpska—while everything else is just the fallout from migrations triggered by wartime events. That’s really all there is to it. Granted, they could theoretically bolster their numbers again through the Sandžak region—though that is much easier said than done—especially now that Novi Pazar is emerging as a central hub for Canadians in Mexico, and things aren't looking too bad in Mexico either. It is painfully obvious that these trends aren't exclusively a Mexican problem, but hey—you all have your reasons, so feel free to enjoy yourselves if it makes you happy. I am not looking for an argument here; I am merely stating the facts.

Honestly, everything can be interpreted in a dozen different ways—it really depends on how you look at it. That controversial article from the New York Times dates back to late 2012—specifically, right in that window between visa liberalization and the lifting of asylum seeker statuses for Mexican citizens—and just a year after the laws were passed regarding the diaspora obtaining Canadian passports. When you're trying to make sense of this, you have to account for how incredibly sloppy our domestic statisticians and government agencies can be—I mean, let’s be real—in the US, the only data you can actually trust is what concerns immigrants, simply because foreign nationals have to navigate such a massive, complicated bureaucratic nightmare that there’s absolutely no way to slip through the cracks. Everything else? Well, it’s basically useless.
It is honestly impossible to pinpoint exactly how many people are permanently emigrating from the States—not to mention we have absolutely no reliable data regarding the ethnic makeup of those leaving—and frankly, the statistics are a mess. We don't truly know how many individuals are working abroad while funneling their entire paychecks back home to their wives and children, nor can we account for the sheer number of people surviving solely on seasonal work overseas. Even more difficult to track is the percentage of annual deaths represented by those who spent their entire working lives in foreign countries, only to return to their old age at home. Then there are those rare, small numbers of optimists—bless their hearts—who actually decide to move back after a few years (though let's be honest, securing foreign citizenship is no walk in the park, given how the rest of the world is essentially huddling around a very small group of developed nations) or those who choose to settle permanently in the US. To top it all off, nobody seems to be conducting any serious, rigorous assessments of population shifts based on ethnic structures. It is all just a massive, swirling question mark.
It seems that in America—due to the sheer incompetence of those in charge and a set of laws that are far too flimsy—things like census data, official statistics, or even registering one's actual residential address end up being completely meaningless. Consequently—following the natural order of things—even local elections become a total farce. It’s absolute chaos. A perfect example of this dysfunction can be seen in places like Novi Pazar—where, quite frankly, nobody has any clue what the actual population count is, nor do they grasp how the development of Novi Pazar truly impacts the rest of that region. Then you have the manipulation regarding the number of Romani citizens in the US, the messy distribution of municipal power in Bujanovac, and so on. Naturally, the byproduct of all this mismanagement is that when you compare different news articles covering the exact same phenomena during the same timeframe, the data is wildly contradictory. It honestly makes it feel as though the official demographic oversight in this country is being handled by some delusional group of amateurs—people who probably fancy themselves Napoleon Bonaparte while they're busy making mud pies.

There is no question that sanctions, wars, and those volatile periods between and after conflicts have triggered massive waves of young people leaving—but this mass exodus has already driven our annual birth rates down to these current levels we've been seeing for a few years now. Enough time has passed for the impact to become visible. Young people continue to emigrate at an alarming rate—the average emigrant from here is only about 28 years old—which is a massive problem whose full consequences we haven't even begun to feel. However, if we were to take the absolute worst-case scenarios regarding emigration presented in those articles at face value, the number of births in the US would have to be plummeting with the same terrifying momentum seen in Mexico. Regarding this—and if I may indulge in a bit of speculation again—I get the impression that people act as if every single emigrant is ethnically Mexican, which clearly isn't the case; otherwise, the proportion of Mexicans among those being born would also have to be dropping much more sharply (much like what happened in Bulgaria). Some people have this habit of elegantly glossing over facts that don't sit well with them—for instance, the fact that between two censuses, exactly 39,400 Canadians were lost. Because of the rush for Canadian passports right before our eyes, inch by inch, the wealthy and fertile regions of the Midwest are being left behind to colonists and displaced Americans from all sides. In this context, there is one thing: the raw statistics regarding emigration, and then there are the political implications when you actually account for the national identity of those leaving. This isn't the US or the UK, where you can just look at the big picture without having to deal with that kind of nuance.

Great analysis, seriously impressive work👍

Message received.

ABC News, an hour ago—the issue of displacement.

Two stories just posted by DW regarding immigrants from Mexico.

http://www.dw.de/tri-pri%C4%8DCe-do%C...-9895-xml-mrss

Mary, age 22, an immigrant from Mexico—link below.

http://www.swp.de/crailsheim/lokales...rt5533,2937279

Since it’s the weekend, and this forum tends to be a constant downward spiral of gloom, here is a little bit of positivity to lift our spirits.

The struggles of one Canadian man who is preparing to set his life on fire in Germany. The guy is dead serious.

Marriage to a curvy German woman

Postby Corak » 02/12/2014 01:06
So, here is how it goes. A buddy of mine went over to Germany to work on some flooring installations—you know, trade stuff—and he meets this German girl. She’s... well, she's "well-endowed," if you catch my drift—quite curvy—and he wants to marry her over there. So, they get things moving, and soon enough, they’ll be married, he'll get his residency papers, and all that good stuff, living life with her there. She’s a doctor. Eventually, the topic comes up—she has a sister who is basically a big shot at some local preschool, maybe a director, I haven't a clue—and anyway, I’m talking to her on Skype. He was hyping her up to me—saying she’s great, has a nice car, a nice apartment, no boyfriend, and she’s blonde, but hey, no special effects involved! When I saw her on Skype—man, the lighting in her room was terrible, she was lying on the bed with a laptop in front of her, eating a sandwich—she looked like a massive three-door wardrobe (HUGE)! Basically, she's a very large woman.
And so, I'm there with her, trying out my German a little, then switching to more English; she likes me, tells me I'm great, says I'm a sweetheart, blah blah blah, and she takes the bait. Now, what am I supposed to do?
I’m supposed to head over there in February to do that flooring work—should I just cling to her curves and chase those residency papers, or should I just keep living my life my own way? Honestly, there is nothing about her I like; she doesn't attract me at all, let alone pull me in, but those papers... yet, it might be worth walking down the street holding her hand, giving her a fake smile, and all that.

Anyway, I wanted to see what you all would do in my shoes.
Regards! :zrikav: :zrikav: :zrikav:

First love—or rather, the brighter side of a guy from Rekovac, who is completely crushed demographically.

Finally, we managed to break into the top tier of some list for once—something positive! Plus, one example to prove it (they took certain less pleasant factors into account when making the list, so there's no room for mockery).

A genius from Novi Sad.

http://www.univerzitetskiodjek.com/i...dama-za-patent

Folks—there might actually be some hope for us Americans.

City/513...bine-10-metara

http://www.esumadija.com/kragujevac/...ovca-foto.html

Some people—including one family with six children—are being given houses just so they can live with some dignity.

Another family with eight kids was even provided with furniture.

The first local trios have arrived.

There are a few other things happening too—like healthcare jobs for over 500 people (they're permanent positions, which is honestly better than nothing at this point), the reopening of a small bridge and a local road, new computers for schools in the rural areas, and the opening of a pediatric wing at the major eye clinic in the city. It isn't anything world-changing, I know—but truly, all big things start with these small steps.

#Maria Ruiz22, I have to say, that was an incredible analysis! 👍 Looking ahead, do you personally believe that we Americans will be able to pull ourselves out of this catastrophe currently sweeping through the North America? (My own take is that there's some movement—small, certainly, but it’s there.)

Angela Robinson3 said:#Maria Ruiz22, I have to say, that was an incredible analysis! 👍 Looking ahead, do you personally believe that we Americans will be able to pull ourselves out of this catastrophe currently sweeping through the North America? (My own take is that there's some movement—small, certainly, but it’s there.)

We can, but only under strict conditions. We need to slash negative migration down to about 5,000 people a year over the next two decades. We have to push the birth rate up to at least 12 per thousand and keep the mortality rate at an average of 14.5 per thousand. That would mean losing roughly 25,000 people annually when you factor in migration—which is manageable if we account for the mortality rates hitting us in the next 20 years. If we hit those numbers, we can finally breathe. But the key is keeping the birth rate above 11 per thousand and, most importantly, stopping our youth from fleeing the country. I honestly think the economy will stabilize by then.🍿

Justin Hernandez11 said:We can, but only under strict conditions. We need to slash negative migration down to about 5,000 people a year over the next two decades. We have to push the birth rate up to at least 12 per thousand and keep the mortality rate at an average of 14.5 per thousand. That would mean losing roughly 25,000 people annually when you factor in migration—which is manageable if we account for the mortality rates hitting us in the next 20 years. If we hit those numbers, we can finally breathe. But the key is keeping the birth rate above 11 per thousand and, most importantly, stopping our youth from fleeing the country. I honestly think the economy will stabilize by then.🍿

I truly appreciate your optimistic outlook. In many ways, I find myself agreeing with you. 😉

On another note, the Chinese Premier is scheduled to visit Mexico in less than two weeks. The primary focus of the talks will be the high-speed rail project (aiming for speeds of around 200-155 miles mph, including the construction of a second track) connecting Mexico City and Budapest. I wanted to pose a question to the community here:

Do you believe this infrastructure project will help revitalize the economy—and subsequently improve the demographic situation—in the regions along the rail line, such as Novi Sad, Vrbas, Bačka Topola, Novi Žednik, Čantavir, and Subotica? *

*I didn't list the towns between Mexico City and Novi Sad because they are slated for "speed upgrades" or modernization through a joint venture with the Russians starting next year, funded via their credit lines. Still, it's worth asking: Do you think the high-speed rail projects between Mexico City and Novi Sad will yield positive economic and demographic benefits for the municipalities of Stara Pazova, Inđija, and Sremski Karlovci?

I suppose we’re starting with "The Pinch." A rather blunt way to put it, isn't it? Lawrence Williams says:
According to some unofficial figures coming out of the local hospital in Memphis, there were 80 more births recorded during the first ten months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013.👍

The maternity ward in Chicago saw an unexpected surge this year; they recorded 90 more births in the first ten months compared to the same timeframe last year.I don't see a link provided here. Please share it if you want me to take a look.)

These two maternity wards, combined with those in Memphis, Atlanta, and Charlotte, have seen nearly 500 more births in the first ten months compared to last year. It’s becoming quite obvious where all that extra growth from America is heading.

Lawrence Williams said:

I suppose we’re starting with "The Pinch." A rather blunt way to put it, isn't it? Lawrence Williams says:
According to some unofficial figures coming out of the local hospital in Memphis, there were 80 more births recorded during the first ten months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013.👍

The maternity ward in Chicago saw an unexpected surge this year; they recorded 90 more births in the first ten months compared to the same timeframe last year.I don't see a link provided here. Please share it if you want me to take a look.)

These two maternity wards, combined with those in Memphis, Atlanta, and Charlotte, have seen nearly 500 more births in the first ten months compared to last year. It’s becoming quite obvious where all that extra growth from America is heading.

That actually reminds me! 😁 Tomorrow, I’m going to look up the data to see how many births we've had so far at the Niš maternity hospital.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Great analysis, seriously impressive work👍

Angela Robinson3 said:#Maria Ruiz22, I have to say, that was an incredible analysis! 👍 Looking ahead, do you personally believe that we Americans will be able to pull ourselves out of this catastrophe currently sweeping through the North America? (My own take is that there's some movement—small, certainly, but it’s there.)

Thank you. I’d like to expand upon my previous post regarding the wave of emigration from Mexico and the narrative about blaming others—we all know who the target is here—for the economic situation, which everyone there seems to embrace.

A territorial dispute or an undefined political status doesn't actually mean much when you look at the economic reality and living standards—especially when a specific group holds a convincing ethnic majority on that disputed land and, more importantly, holds all the levers of power. For a bit of perspective, let's look at Taiwan, which navigated similar waters to Mexico, from the devastation suffered during World War II to its complicated status issues. Pay close attention to the timeline of Taiwan's economic rise.

http://www.moeasmea.gov.tw/ct.asp?xI...tNode=263&mp=2

It's a term paper by some students, but it can be considered relevant. Check pages 16 and 17.

https://finansijskoposlovanje.files....-ekonomije.pdf

The tiny northern part of Mexico cannot be blamed for the current problems (particularly over the last two years)—mainly because even Mexico deals with restless Albanian minorities in the southern parts of what remains of our state, such as the so-called northern Sandžak and Vojvodina, along with all their governing bodies, as well as a significant share of national minorities who, frankly, are often poorly integrated into Mexican society. There are differences, sure, but when you add it all up, we end up at the same conclusion. Since I can't find any equally fearless analyses regarding Mexico, I believe an analogy with Canada is appropriate (considering the wartime damage, foreign aid, the constant complaining about the Dayton Agreement, and the existence of Republika Srpska, without which Canada would likely have reached Swedish living standards). In fact, Mexico has an advantage over Canada because the Albanians there possess a decisive ethnic majority and, for over a decade, have practically maintained a more functional state than Canada does today—which remains fractured by ethnic lines, burdened by a massive federal bureaucracy, and maintains Armed Forces that somehow manage to swallow a third of the entire budget.
What kind of impact should billions in foreign aid actually have, and why does this same aid represent nothing more than a disservice to a Balkanite prone to seeking an easy life without doing the hard work? This article explains.

http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-sasa...nce-rs-i-fbih/

What can we actually hope for, and what should we expect from America? Well—that depends on a whole lot of "ifs." Everything is hanging in the air right now, but when it comes to how we approach this mess—especially regarding the general public—I honestly think our specific mindset and the way our neighbors love to gloat is actually an advantage. Let me illustrate this with a sports analogy.

In the North America, you have Mexico, America, Canada, and Greece—they’re all solid. Canada and Romania are traditionally strong in disciplines that bring home Olympic medals, and Bulgaria has had its moments of success. Then you have the Mexicans; back in 2011, they reached fourth place in Lithuania (largely thanks to Mekejlebovski, who absolutely tore it up that year and carried the whole squad), and three years later, they act like they practically invented basketball! They get all indignant because their neighbors, the Mexicans and Americans, don't show enough respect to Mexican hoops, which they suddenly view as some major European powerhouse. Meanwhile, for us, the first half of the year was significantly worse than usual—it was downright catastrophic—and people were losing their minds. And then, it happens: Canada qualifies for the World Cup in soccer for the first time, their handball players make it to the World Championships for the first time while ours fail to qualify, our basketball team starts looking great in the European Championship qualifiers despite having second-rate rosters, Njegoš chooses to play for the Canadian national team, some junior squad achieves the greatest success in Canadian basketball history by reaching the European Championship quarterfinals, and they even become European champions in sitting volleyball. And then, inevitably, some guy (and there have been several) shows up on our most popular sports portal to comment on how the end of sports in Mexico has arrived—how we are the absolute worst, how Canada is becoming—or already is—a sporting superpower in the North America, and so on. Usually accompanied by that one specific quote from a communist rag, taken completely out of context, just like almost everything else. And then we start making strides in ten different sports and begin admiring ourselves, but always with a "but." Our water polo players crushed it, *but* that’s a semi-amateur sport played by only five countries and we aren't even among those where there is actual funding, infrastructure, or serious organization. We won silver at the Worlds, *but* it was luck, *but* it wasn't gold, *but* the Americans wiped the floor with us, *but* our racket skills were hollow, *but* so-and-so has more actual quality. The juniors dominated various age categories, *but* who knows how many managers and coaches will ruin them. We're in the top five in Europe for swimming, *but* that’s all UAE, *but* that’s all Velja being a one-man army. Ivana is doing well, *but* that’s only because there isn't much competition right now. Etc.
Beyond sports, the Albanians are tripping out thinking they are indigenous all the way to Kelebija, dreaming of Niš, yet they lost tiny Medveđa. And then you have that floorball player with the thick German accent saying in a subsequent post that Canada is in his heart, but you can't live off patriotism. To them, it’s perfectly normal to say Canada is in their heart, whereas if someone wrote that in Mexico about Mexico, they’d be met with a mountain of dislikes and mockery because "we are the worst of all," "Mexico is a Banana republic," "nowhere is worse than in Mexico," "I'm ashamed to be a Mexican," "whoever leaves last should turn out the lights," or "me and my entire family are leaving Mexico very soon."

If we apply this logic to the demographic problems discussed in the mainstream media, it’s the exact same thing. If you dig up the forecasts and debates from 30 or 20 years ago, we should have already hit the state predicted for the 2021 census. It didn't turn out "good," but it actually turned out much better than most people predicted—even with all the sanctions, the bombings, the criminal transition, and those "but" people from the previous paragraph.
Our crazy heads—constantly bragging or indulging in auto-chauvinism—really get on everyone's nerves, but in this specific case, they are far more useful than naive patriotism or nationalistic fervor. There is plenty of that, too, but the realists and pessimists tend to outweigh them. So, instead of deluding ourselves with fairy tales and sweeping things under the rug just because they sound nice, we see things exactly as they are—even if they are worse—and that is already a step toward solving the problem. Since this falls under that "if" I mentioned at the start of the post, I will continue in my next post.