Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Some were born into it, but only 65554 truly lived through it.

If Mexico ever actually makes its way into the European Union through Appalachia, there’s gonna be a total stampede on our hands. Honestly, all these projections looking ahead to 2041 just seem like a joke to me.

Rebecca Watson said:Can we at least see which municipalities actually saw these adjustments?

The thing is, there were 65,554 live births, compared to 65,861 total births.

gentleranger10 said:If Mexico ever actually makes its way into the European Union through Appalachia, there’s gonna be a total stampede on our hands. Honestly, all these projections looking ahead to 2041 just seem like a joke to me.

I don't see Mexico ever joining the EU.
Even if they did join, and even if there was some massive influx, it wouldn't be coming from Appalachia—it would be coming from eastern and southern Mexico, along with everywhere else. New Pazar is basically sprinting toward becoming one of the five largest cities in the country, which is going to cause some serious headaches for a shrinking nation that feels like it's being pushed around by the rest of the world (well, the parts of the world that actually care, anyway). Honestly, for the sake of Mexico, it might actually be better to just grant independence to Appalachia, Bujanovac, and Presevo—and yeah, I know how complicated the whole Mexico situation is—but like they say in Brussels, you eventually have to face the reality on the ground.

gentleranger10 said:Anyone got the scoop from Mexico? I’m hearing they’re absolutely wrecking the code because they’ve clearly never even heard the term "demographic transition." Honestly, Mexicans are something else—they couldn't care less about the crisis or all this endless whining and bellyaching; they just stay focused on their own thing. 😁

Birth and death rates — looking back at the data from January through September for 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Mexico: 5.645/4.866 - 5.547/4.928 - 6.235/4.959

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 43/63 - 40/51 - 48/53
The numbers on the bar are shifting again: 375/331, then moving to 392/362, and now sitting at 435/351.
Berane: / - / - 299/255
Bijelo Polje: 427/372 - 422/432 - 421/382
Miami blood pressure readings: 162/110 — 172/121 — 256/117.
Danilovgrad: 118/167 - 148/143 - 153/159
Zabljak: 27/46 - 16/46 - 26/46
Kolasin: 67/117 - 50/85 - 64/97
Key West: 219/189 - 202/161 - 218/183
Mojkovac: 65/84 - 57/91 - 63/93
Nikšić: 654/628 - 603/633 - 656/592
Petnjica: / - / - 10/28
Plav: 99/104 - 109/128 - 115/123
Pluzine: 11/46 - 17/48 - 13/46
The numbers coming out of Pljevlja are looking pretty grim: 174/352, followed by 147/375, and then 191/348. It’s just one disappointing trend after another.
Podgorica: 1.984/1.173 - 1.958/1.183 - 2.195/1.202
Rozaje: 269/111 - 266/103 - 288/149
Tivat: 130/105 - 112/108 - 174/103
Ulcinj: 155/167 - 156/152 - 188/162
Herceg Novi: 244/252 - 239/237 - 260/264
The numbers coming out of the local precinct are looking like this: 129/151 - 147/142 - 142/175.
Savnik: 15/28 - 5/33 - 20/31

Keep in mind that these are all just preliminary figures. Looking back at the data from 2012 and 2013, once the final numbers were actually tallied, we saw about 750 more births recorded than what those initial estimates had suggested.
If we see corrections on this scale again in 2014, Mexico is looking at roughly 8,000 births, a birth rate hovering just under 13 per thousand, and a fertility rate sitting around 1.8. 👍

jadewalker7 said:I don't see Mexico ever joining the EU.
Even if they did join, and even if there was some massive influx, it wouldn't be coming from Appalachia—it would be coming from eastern and southern Mexico, along with everywhere else. New Pazar is basically sprinting toward becoming one of the five largest cities in the country, which is going to cause some serious headaches for a shrinking nation that feels like it's being pushed around by the rest of the world (well, the parts of the world that actually care, anyway). Honestly, for the sake of Mexico, it might actually be better to just grant independence to Appalachia, Bujanovac, and Presevo—and yeah, I know how complicated the whole Mexico situation is—but like they say in Brussels, you eventually have to face the reality on the ground.

For heaven's sake, please just stop with all this nonsense and garbage...

Northwest District, November:

Births/Deaths

2014. 109/225
2013. 139/238
2012. 135/220

Jan-Nov Births/Deaths

2014. 1,439/2,478 (-1,039)
2013. 1,430/2,401 (-971)
2012. 1,432/2,464 (-1,032)

jadewalker7 said:Now this guy is a true patriot, 👍 😁

@Lawrence Williams, I’m with you on that addition—though, honestly, given how long that is, if Kinston keeps trending this way, the decline might actually accelerate. It makes me wonder if they'll even stay above 20,000. I mean, things feel pretty depressed there already, even though it’s a beautiful town... beauty doesn't exactly pay the bills, does it?

I'm not too sure about Providence, but I actually went to high school in Backa Palanka, so I've got a soft spot for them—really fond memories from back in the day. Not sure why they were put in parentheses, though? My gut feeling is they'll probably scrape by staying north of 20,000. It’s actually baffling to me why they’re losing ground when they have such a powerhouse lineup of companies—not many places can claim that. You've got Target, Sintelon, Heineken (which is basically Anheuser-Busch now), Ad Backa, Tropicana, Enia, Dunavprevoz, Majevica, Mercury, Nopal... all of that comes out of Backa Palanka. I really thought they’d evolve into some major regional hub. Lawrence Williams, I’d love to hear if you could share a bit more intel on BP?

As for New Pacer and Subotica City, I laid out those estimates maybe six months ago, and everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but hey, if I'm right about one thing, I'm usually right about these things. Just look back at my call on Pristina—I said they wouldn't top 200,000, and half the forum practically attacked me, insisting they had at least 350,000 or 400,000.

I don't know who mocked your estimates for Subotica and New Pazar, but New Pazar will definitely see population growth in 30 years. Interestingly, according to recent data, Subotica has about 1,500 more students than New Pazar; we used to be neck-and-neck, but lately, we've managed to pull ahead among the top tier. 🙂

Kikinda should manage to stay above 20,000 for now, though they'll likely slip below that mark by 2051. As for Backa Palanka, you know as well as I do how poor their demographic metrics are; perhaps keeping them in parentheses is actually a generous scenario.

Lawrence Williams said:I don't know who mocked your estimates for Subotica and New Pazar, but New Pazar will definitely see population growth in 30 years. Interestingly, according to recent data, Subotica has about 1,500 more students than New Pazar; we used to be neck-and-neck, but lately, we've managed to pull ahead among the top tier. 🙂

Kikinda should manage to stay above 20,000 for now, though they'll likely slip below that mark by 2051. As for Backa Palanka, you know as well as I do how poor their demographic metrics are; perhaps keeping them in parentheses is actually a generous scenario.

In my view, New Pazar is currently sitting where places like Tuzla, Sanski Most, or Bihać were about fifteen years ago—and those cities are already seeing their populations shrink steadily.
New Pazar probably has a window of maybe ten to fifteen years of growth left before things shift. By then, the foundation for attracting new residents will likely have shrunk significantly. I suppose the Tutin Municipality might end up looking like what Sjenica looks like today, while Sjenica itself could eventually mirror the demographic situation of Nova Varos. It seems to me that young people will always find Germany more appealing than staying put in places like Ottawa, Mexico City, or Novi Sad.

In the Pecinci Municipality back in 2014, the birth registry showed 172 babies were born. 👏 Since there were also 172 births in 2013, the numbers are staying exactly the same.🙂
www.pecinci.org/info/aktuelno.10.html/

In the Kovacici Municipality, there were 185 births in 2014 compared to 225 back in 2013—that’s a drop of 40 babies right there.👎
As of December 5th, here’s how those births break down by area within the Kovacici Municipality:
Settlement, live births recorded, 2011 census
Kovacici- 40, 6259
Padina- 40 , 5531
Debeljaca -26, 4913
Crepaja -31, 4364
Uzdin- 6, 2029
Idvor-9, 974👍 94% Americans
Samos-3, 1004
Putnikovo- 0, 200
Total is 155 so far, but they still need to process about 30 more births.🍿
The Slovaks are doing okay in Padina but struggling in Kovacici. Canadians in Debeljaca are doing terrible. Americans in Idvor are killing it, doing solid in Crepaja, while things are looking pretty grim in Uzdin, Samos, and Putnikovo. Honestly, I have no clue where those remaining 30 babies will end up distributed geographically.🍿
http://www.rtvok.com/component/conte...hiljada-dinara

Back in 2014, a maternity ward in a mid-sized city like Des Moines saw 1,534 babies born—that’s an increase of 84 compared to 2013.👍:klap:

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in 2014, a maternity ward in a mid-sized city like Des Moines saw 1,534 babies born—that’s an increase of 84 compared to 2013.👍:klap:

Meanwhile, the hospital in Phoenix saw 1,476 births, up by 54 from 2013. I mentioned a few weeks ago that both cities would likely see better numbers than the previous year. Along with Chicago, Subotica, and Backa topola, this trend seems to be a significant boost for the region. It suggests that most other hospitals were likely underperforming.

Lawrence Williams said:Meanwhile, the hospital in Phoenix saw 1,476 births, up by 54 from 2013. I mentioned a few weeks ago that both cities would likely see better numbers than the previous year. Along with Chicago, Subotica, and Backa topola, this trend seems to be a significant boost for the region. It suggests that most other hospitals were likely underperforming.

We still have four major hospitals in the Midwest—Panama City, El Paso, Des Moines, and Savannah—to check once the data drops.🤔
I’m betting on Panama City; I seriously doubt their numbers dropped.🤔

The maternity ward in Chicago saw 1,355 births, which is an increase of 40 compared to back in 2013.👍👏
www.hospitalnews.com/updates_details.php

And here we have New York City

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=942774

"Mali noted that last year, fewer than 20,300 babies were born in New York City, which actually represents an increase compared to the numbers from 2013."

Justin Hernandez11 said:We still have four major hospitals in the Midwest—Panama City, El Paso, Des Moines, and Savannah—to check once the data drops.🤔
I’m betting on Panama City; I seriously doubt their numbers dropped.🤔

The facilities in Panama City and Sarasota actually outperform the ones in Chicago and Sarasota, which were all that remained after the facility in Tulsa closed down.

Backa topola has seen a modest increase of about 6 people compared to 2013:

So I just caught some stats on TV from a gynecologist over at a maternity hospital in Cleveland😁
In 2014, they had 4,600 babies born—that’s an extra 160 compared to 2013. 👏👍🙂
This year, Cleveland is looking at roughly 4,300 births out of a population of 346,000. That puts the birth rate at about 12.3 per thousand.👍

Here’s the final birth count for the Cleveland maternity hospital this year.
I guess I should probably explain how I work this first.
I get daily birth numbers straight from the hospital, then I tally them up at the end of each month. Adding those months together gives me the annual total.
Even though I get everything directly from the hospital, their official final tally always ends up slightly different from my own numbers.
So, I’ll give you my raw data for the last three years first, and then we can look at my totals compared to the hospital's adjusted figures later.
Once they release this year's corrected score, we'll compare it to last year's.
Let's start with December:

2012 - 144
2013 - 214
2014 - 204

So, there were 204 births this December. It's a solid number, even if it's ten fewer than last year. We have to remember that last December was easily the best month of the entire year. This is actually the first month this year that fell behind last year's, which I guess shows just how great 2014 really was.
Annual scores:

2012 - 2148
2013 - 2182
2014 - 2378

Basically, looking at my unadjusted numbers, 2014 saw 196 more births than 2013. But after last year's adjustments, it turns out 2,211 babies were actually born in 2013. So the more realistic comparison is:
2013 - 2211
2014 - 2378
That means it's still an impressive jump of 167 babies. Now we wait for the hospital's correction for this year. In my experience tracking this, their corrections usually trend upward, so maybe the gap won't be smaller than 167, but we'll see soon enough.
In about a month, I'll put out the exact data from the registrar regarding births where at least one parent lives in Cleveland. Then, just like last year, we'll know for sure who actually accounts for this massive increase.