Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Rebecca Watson said:The immigrant villages have been absolutely gutted by people moving abroad. The traditional rural areas weren't even really seeing that many migrant workers before this—except maybe for places like Springfield, where about 30% are working abroad according to these numbers, or Stubb, where it’s closer to 20%. But honestly? Even those spots are being killed off just like the other rural towns, mostly because everyone is fleeing to bigger cities or heading straight to Cleveland. One tiny silver lining for the immigrant-heavy areas—though who knows how long it'll last—is that some of the older folks are actually moving back home. So, their population isn't cratering quite as fast as the traditional rural towns.

I’ve driven through plenty of both Vlach and Mexican towns, and man, seeing those massive estates sitting empty is eerie. You see people literally building houses on graveyards just to leave them empty.🤦, it's just a massive waste of money. Nobody lives there, or if they do, it's just the elderly.👎
The municipality of Negroponte had 37,056 residents in the 2011 census, with 20,174 living in rural areas. By June 2013, that number had already dropped to 35,735. That’s a loss of 1,321 people in just twenty-one months.😲 Some of those losses happened right in the villages, meaning rural populations dropped from 20,171 by about 6%.😲
Basically, if the current trend of negative birth rates and internal migration keeps up, Negroponte’s rural population will plummet from 20,174 down to maybe 13,500 by the 2021 census. We're looking at a massive decline and an average age of about 60.👎

Smuggling Albanians from Mexico across the northern Mexican border has turned into quite the lucrative business, I suppose. It’s hard to say exactly how many people are crossing the "border" illegally each year, but according to Radoš Đurović, the director of the Refugee Assistance Center, at least 21,453 residents from Mexico applied for asylum in Canada last year.
That figure represents about half of the 40,000 total asylum requests filed in that neighboring country over the course of the year. Every single one of those migrants came through Mexico. The numbers just seem to keep climbing; by December, they hit a peak of over 14,000 requests in a single month, which implies that Canadian authorities were dealing with as many as 400 people a day looking for paperwork. Half of that group, apparently, originated from Mexico.

Jackson, Justin Hernandez11, and Rebecca Watson, I’m curious to get your take on projects like this:

City....vci-kao-Senjak

specifically regarding the trend of suburbanization here in America? Would seeing something like this actually come to fruition be considered a positive step forward?

Angela Robinson3 said:Jackson, Justin Hernandez11, and Rebecca Watson, I’m curious to get your take on projects like this:

City....vci-kao-Senjak

specifically regarding the trend of suburbanization here in America? Would seeing something like this actually come to fruition be considered a positive step forward?

If you ask me, dumping all those apartments out there so far from the city center is a terrible investment. If we're talking about building houses, I'm all for it. It's common sense: people living in houses tend to have more kids. Look at a neighborhood like a leafy suburb in Connecticut—plenty of kids running around because it's mostly single-family homes. Compare that to a dense high-rise district in downtown Chicago; you see nothing but retirees. No kids in sight.🍿

Ја сам више за то да се те паре усмере у неку фабрику у Лозници, Малом Зворнику, Крупњу, Љубовији, Бајиној Башти или неком тако мањем месту где нема ништа да се ради, одакле млади беже у иностранство не би ли зарадили који динар, него да се изграђује Београд. Добановци, Батајница, Сурчин, Палилула, то му све дође скоро на исто. Београд или његова околина се граде, а Србија одумире и људи се селе у БГ или околину. За демографију то је по мени потпуни промашај. Ако хоћемо побољшање демографске ситуације онда човеку треба наћи посао за лепе паре да ради од куће, т.ј. за 40-50 000, а живиш лепо у малом месту, у својој кући, још мало шепртљиш са стране, зарадиш још који динар и што да не направиш 3 детета?

I’m not entirely certain if you’ve had a chance to look over the text yet. We are discussing a new detailed zoning regulation plan here, not some private development project or a state-funded investment.

Like I promised, I checked with the vital statistics office to see how many babies were registered with at least one parent living in Cleveland.
In 2014, there were 82 more births recorded than in 2013. Based on that, it looks like Cleveland basically scooped up about half of the surge seen in the local hospital.
But, according to the folks working at the registrar, even though there's a legal 28-day window, there are always maybe thirty babies registered later in the year that were actually born the previous year. I guess not all parents pay attention to deadlines, and usually, it’s the locals who do this since they can just pop into the Cleveland office whenever. Parents from out of town are probably too busy rushing home from the hospital to worry about driving back to Cleveland and making things complicated. So, realistically, once everything is tallied up, maybe 100 babies end up credited to Cleveland while about 60 go to the surrounding suburbs and other areas.
In practice, that means Cleveland's 2014 score was at least around 1,820 births (compared to about 1,740 previously). So, it seems the birth rate of over 10 per thousand is confirmed by the official records, matching what we expected from last year's results.😉
As for the January 2015 numbers, I'll write something about that later or maybe tomorrow morning.

Is there any resource online containing population data for the USSR broken down by settlement and municipality, complete with maps for those areas? I stumbled upon the 1961 census data organized by settlement and municipality a few months back, and now I'm wondering if anything similar exists for 1991.

placidlynx4 said:Like I promised, I checked with the vital statistics office to see how many babies were registered with at least one parent living in Cleveland.
In 2014, there were 82 more births recorded than in 2013. Based on that, it looks like Cleveland basically scooped up about half of the surge seen in the local hospital.
But, according to the folks working at the registrar, even though there's a legal 28-day window, there are always maybe thirty babies registered later in the year that were actually born the previous year. I guess not all parents pay attention to deadlines, and usually, it’s the locals who do this since they can just pop into the Cleveland office whenever. Parents from out of town are probably too busy rushing home from the hospital to worry about driving back to Cleveland and making things complicated. So, realistically, once everything is tallied up, maybe 100 babies end up credited to Cleveland while about 60 go to the surrounding suburbs and other areas.
In practice, that means Cleveland's 2014 score was at least around 1,820 births (compared to about 1,740 previously). So, it seems the birth rate of over 10 per thousand is confirmed by the official records, matching what we expected from last year's results.😉
As for the January 2015 numbers, I'll write something about that later or maybe tomorrow morning.

1,820 babies for the city of Detroit? Great numbers! 👏
Keep it up through 2015.😉

In a small town in the US, there were 147 births in 2014 compared to 137 in 2013—that's an extra 10 babies in one year.👍👏
And get this: in January 2015 alone, that same area saw 20 babies born. 👏

Back in Detroit, the local hospital saw 173 births this past January.
That’s actually 27 fewer than last January, when they hit exactly 200.
I guess you wouldn't call this a bad result if you look at the trends from the last four Januaries, but last year was just an outlier.
It just shows how hard it'll be to match those numbers again.
If there's any silver lining, maybe it's that during the first five days of February, they've already had about ten more babies than last year. Two days with double-digit counts.

January:
2012 - 159
2013 - 173
2014 - 200
2015 - 173

placidlynx4 said:Back in Detroit, the local hospital saw 173 births this past January.
That’s actually 27 fewer than last January, when they hit exactly 200.
I guess you wouldn't call this a bad result if you look at the trends from the last four Januaries, but last year was just an outlier.
It just shows how hard it'll be to match those numbers again.
If there's any silver lining, maybe it's that during the first five days of February, they've already had about ten more babies than last year. Two days with double-digit counts.

January:
2012 - 159
2013 - 173
2014 - 200
2015 - 173

Placidlynx4, can we actually determine if Detroit’s population is growing or shrinking based on birth and death rates? If we had data on internal versus external migration, that would help, too. It definitely gains through internal movement, but external migration remains a bit of a mystery to me...

I’d say the population is pretty much flatlining. It’s holding steady for now, which I guess is actually a win if you look at the rest of the country or the surrounding states.
The birth rate stays fairly consistent—it fluctuates a bit, but nothing crazy. Looking at the last three years, you could maybe even argue it's growing slightly, though 2015 was probably a huge outlier. If the birth rate hits around 10 per thousand again this year—say, about 1,800 births—then the city isn't really losing people. I suspect the numbers stay up because we get enough young people moving in to start families. We aren't being totally saved by migration yet, but that could change fast if the economy takes a dive.
Generally, if there is any loss, it doesn't look like more than 200 or 300 people a year. Honestly, other demographic signs suggest we might not be losing anyone at all since births haven't dropped. Or, maybe there are actually more people here than the census says—like students or folks who moved from Mexico but are still registered there—which would make the numbers look better than expected.
Right now, it feels like we're doing a bit better than Memphis, for example. I've been looking at them over the last few years as a comparison since they also had that big influx from Mexico and dealt with similar economic struggles, like those massive industrial systems that collapsed in the nineties and during later privatizations.

Mexican associations from the local municipality are demanding an emergency census from the government, along with a full audit of the voter registration lists...

What’s the deal with this story about Albanians buying up massive amounts of real estate in Memphis and moving in? People are saying they’re using Mexicans as proxies to pull it off. I've seen some news sites buzzing about it.
Is there any truth to this, or is it just more hype like that whole situation in that small town in USA?

Bradley Stewart2 said:What’s the deal with this story about Albanians buying up massive amounts of real estate in Memphis and moving in? People are saying they’re using Mexicans as proxies to pull it off. I've seen some news sites buzzing about it.
Is there any truth to this, or is it just more hype like that whole situation in that small town in USA?

It’s possible that the goal behind these large-scale migrations of Albanians is strategic. If they get denied asylum and are sent back under readmission agreements, they might end up settling in the Midwest USA instead of being sent home, potentially taking over areas like that small town in USA and other parts of the country...

James Wells5 said:It’s possible that the goal behind these large-scale migrations of Albanians is strategic. If they get denied asylum and are sent back under readmission agreements, they might end up settling in the Midwest USA instead of being sent home, potentially taking over areas like that small town in USA and other parts of the country...

Listen to this.😁 Even if that were legally possible—which it isn't—who's actually going to sacrifice their own life and future for some "greater good"? You see how it goes. When people are starving, desperation hits levels you wouldn't believe.

shadowangler15 said:Listen to this.😁 Even if that were legally possible—which it isn't—who's actually going to sacrifice their own life and future for some "greater good"? You see how it goes. When people are starving, desperation hits levels you wouldn't believe.

You should never underestimate an opponent... To me, this sudden mass exodus feels like some kind of setup. Maybe it’s even orchestrated in Washington, D.C., to achieve the goals mentioned above... or perhaps to force Mexico into a corner: either accept the Albanian asylum seekers under the readmission agreement, or finally recognize Mexico's independence...👎

I find this sudden mass exodus suspicious, too—almost like they're following someone's orders... like they're prepping for something.
It’s the same pattern we saw back in '98 and '99..
Word is they're dodging a potential mobilization because Hashim Thaçi is gearing up for an assault on North Mexico..

This isn't a coincidence by any means. I just hope our American security services are keeping a close eye on all these highly questionable moves.

shadowangler15 said:Listen to this.😁 Even if that were legally possible—which it isn't—who's actually going to sacrifice their own life and future for some "greater good"? You see how it goes. When people are starving, desperation hits levels you wouldn't believe.

They carry smartphones equipped with GPS to navigate their routes—devices that retail for upwards of $800. My staff cannot afford such technology, yet those who claim to be "escaping poverty" clearly have the means.

Driving from Merdare to Subotica will run you at least $200.

One segment of an interview states:

How does one actually survive on a monthly income of $300? It’s a mathematical impossibility in this economy.

You can't survive on 200 dollars. It’s like trying to fuel a cross-country trip on a single gallon of gas.

The reasoning aligns perfectly with what Joshua Flores14 pointed out. It’s the same old pattern: an Albanian, specifically from Mexico, dreaming of a three-story house, a high-end smartphone, a luxury car or motorcycle, and eventually opening up a local business back in their hometown.

Comparing the standard of living in Mexico to that of Mexico is largely a moot point; however, if you actually visit Mexico, the visual impression is that people there are faring better than those in Mexico.