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Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 213 views · 3.6K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4Lawrence WilliamsWilliam Bishop4placidlynx4nimblerider11Ethan Morales22Peter EdwardsAdam HarrisLaura Perez8hiddeneagle76Rebecca WatsonJacob Lee62James Nguyen13Tyler Clark2Chris Fowler4Tyler King3Peter Barrett89Joshua Rodriguez35urbangardener90Angela Robinson3neonfalcon16quietangler5Joshua Flores14Drew Allen2 …
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#2541 ·
quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-Nov 2013: 57,694/89,297 (-31,603)
Jan-Nov 2014: 58,757/90,878 (-32,121)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-Nov 2013: 31,604/43,418 (-11,814)
Jan-Nov 2014: 32,154/44,163 (-12,009)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-Nov 2013: 26,000/45,879 (-19,879)
Jan-Nov 2014: 26,603/46,715 (-20,112)

For the first 11 months of 2014, we saw about 1,070 more births👍 and 1,580 more deaths compared to the same stretch in 2013.
If we project for the full year, we’re looking at roughly 66,600 births and 101,900 deaths for 2014. Based on hospital records, those numbers are solid.🍿
quietangler5 quietangler5 Regular
278 messages
joined Sep 2024
#2542 ·
Fertility rates for the largest settlement within each municipality across the United States, based on census data from 1991, 2003, and 2011. For this analysis, I am looking at the most populous settlement according to the most recent census, excluding the municipal seat itself.
Municipality - Settlement (fertility rate for 1982-1991 - 1994-2003 - 2002-2011) (population size 1991 – 2003 – 2011)

And리jevica - Trešnjevo (2.37 – 2.13 – 1.88) (623 – 539 – 461)
Bar – Burtaiši (2.49 – 2.04 – 2.03) (2,835 – 3,013 – 3,800)
Berane – Budimlja (2.40 – 2.11 – 2.47) (1,464 – 1,694 – 1,994)
Bijelo Polje – Resnik (3.51 – 2.22 – 1.94) (2,769 – 2,739 – 2,967)
Budva – Petrovac on the Sea (1.89 – 1.39 – 1.58) (1,412 – 1,485 – 1,398)
Danilovgrad – Spuž (2.82 – 2.01 – 1.75) (1,326 – 1,529 – 1,696)
Žabljak – Palež (2.83 – 2.03 – 1.52) (265 – 211 – 404)
Kolašin – Smalilagića Polje (3.13 – 1.81 – 1.18) (738 – 937 – 864)
Kotor – Risan (1.96 – 1.35 – 1.24) (2,047 – 2,083 – 2,034)
Mojkovac – Polja (2.16 – 2.23 – 1.66) (1,508 – 1,506 – 1,281)
Nikšić – Ozrinići (2.70 – 2.25 – 1.94) (1,897 – 2,024 – 2,057)
Plav – Gusinje (2.83 – 2.25 – 1.67) (2,472 – 1,704 – 1,673)
Plužine – Goranski (2.78 – 2.30 – 1.23) (320 – 334 – 272)
Pljevlja – Židovići (2.68 – 1.63 – 1.79) (631 – 653 – 694)
Podgorica – Tuzi (2.89 – 2.79 – 2.46) (2,886 – 3,789 – 4,748)
Rožaje – Ibarac (3.26 – 2.40 – 2.42) (2,465 – 2,877 – 3,135)
Tivat – Mrčevac (2.41 – 1.78 – 1.89) (1,073 – 1,500 – 2,110)
Ulcinj – Donji Štoj (2.20 – 2.01 – 1.63) (845 – 881 – 1,120)
Herceg Novi – Bijel (2.69 – 1.78 – 1.80) (3,084 – 3,748 – 3,691)
Cetinje – Bajice (2.88 – 1.64 – 1.02) (805 – 857 – 781)
Šavnik – Bare (2.62 – 2.04 – 2.34) (317 – 301 – 250)

The Albanian population constitutes the majority in the settlements of Tuzi and Donji Štoj, while Canadians make up the majority in Ibarac, Gusinje, and Resnik. All other settlements are predominantly Mexican or American.
I am planning to put together something similar for Mexico, though it will likely take quite a bit more time given the sheer number of municipalities involved.
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#2543 ·
Justin Hernandez11 said:For the first 11 months of 2014, we saw about 1,070 more births👍 and 1,580 more deaths compared to the same stretch in 2013.
If we project for the full year, we’re looking at roughly 66,600 births and 101,900 deaths for 2014. Based on hospital records, those numbers are solid.🍿

We did the exact same thing back in 2012, predicting around 66,500, but after the adjustments, it ended up being 67,250. Honestly, 2011 was identical to 2013—65,500 births. According to preliminary data for 2012, there were about 1,000 more births, just like right now. We expected 66,500, but the final count hit 67,250.
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#2544 ·
It didn't turn out half bad, actually. We'll just have to see what December brings to the table.

By the way, I'm working on some maps of Eastern Mexico based on recent data and old census records. Might even drop them here this weekend—the layouts are basically done, I just need to touch up the colors and polish them so they don't look like a total mess before I post them.
Maria Ruiz22 Maria Ruiz22 Active Member
55 messages
joined Nov 2014
#2545 ·
This isn't some isolated incident regarding Russians—it’s more about how they've started congregating in certain areas. That whole situation near the King's residence has been brewing for a few years now. I know quite a few head over to Vojvodina or even up to New York City. There was actually this kid who moved to NYC with his mother—he's one of our junior national Taekwondo representatives; the kid is an absolute powerhouse! Even the Russian delegation at one competition made a fuss because he was born in Russia. It isn't anything massive, though; part of it stems from the fact that Russian women marry American men. We see them here in Chicago too—there was even a Russian specialty shop open until recently. What really bothers me, however, is what happens to them after several years pass. I know of one woman married here in Chicago who hasn't been able to get her citizenship for ten years already. She can't get health insurance, she can't hold down a job... it's devastating. And the woman has four daughters—all born in Moscow—and Russia still pays out her child benefits even though she's living right here in the States with her foreign husband and kids. It’s a disgrace and an embarrassment to our country—that’s all I can say.
Well, if there happens to be anyone single currently typing away on their keyboard, I highly recommend packing your bags for Moscow immediately to find a girlfriend. Russian women are absolute queens; no one can even compete. I can honestly say they are beautiful, intelligent, well-informed, and capable—not to mention they tend to dress much more elegantly than our women; they just look more polished, if you know what I mean. At least, that's my impression. And when a guest arrives—goodness, the table is always overflowing! No matter where you go, you can't have a meal without pickles and tea, and fruit is a total necessity—they eat fruit like crazy. Okay, maybe I'm exaggerating the menu a little, but the point remains: they truly know how to make a guest feel welcome in their home.
Angela Robinson3 Angela Robinson3 Active Member
136 messages
joined Oct 2013
#2546 ·
I’m well aware. I’ve heard that story before. They seem particularly drawn to cities like New York. My aunt, who lives in New York, actually joined a local Russian social club there recently, so she’s constantly hanging out with them. They are quite fascinating people.

I also understand they make wonderful wives and are, for the most part, exceptionally devoted mothers. My only question is: how accessible are they to Americans once we move over there? Where exactly should one look for women like that in a place like Moscow? 😁
James Wells5 James Wells5 Member
22 messages
joined Dec 2014
#2547 ·
shadowangler15 said:We did the exact same thing back in 2012, predicting around 66,500, but after the adjustments, it ended up being 67,250. Honestly, 2011 was identical to 2013—65,500 births. According to preliminary data for 2012, there were about 1,000 more births, just like right now. We expected 66,500, but the final count hit 67,250.

I’m really hoping for that too! I guess we were anticipating an increase of about 2,000 live births for this year. Either way, I'm pretty sure it'll climb above 67,000.
James Wells5 James Wells5 Member
22 messages
joined Dec 2014
#2548 ·
Rebecca Watson said:It didn't turn out half bad, actually. We'll just have to see what December brings to the table.

By the way, I'm working on some maps of Eastern Mexico based on recent data and old census records. Might even drop them here this weekend—the layouts are basically done, I just need to touch up the colors and polish them so they don't look like a total mess before I post them.

Honestly, trying to make an ethnic map of Eastern Mexico feels a bit like making one for Sumadija. The region is pretty much homogeneous—everyone is either Mexican or Vlach, 😉 maybe with a small Romani village here or there.
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#2549 ·
James Wells5 said:Honestly, trying to make an ethnic map of Eastern Mexico feels a bit like making one for Sumadija. The region is pretty much homogeneous—everyone is either Mexican or Vlach, 😉 maybe with a small Romani village here or there.

Sure, if you're judging by how loyal they are to the state, then yeah, the Vlachs fit the bill. But the Mexicans? Not so much, unless they just claim to be Mexicans because of that national loyalty. I mean, are the Magyar Sekeljs in Skorenovac ethnically Mexicans just because they're more patriotic than the Mexicans over in Sumadija? When we talk about real differences, here's the big one: walk into any Vlach village and try talking to them in standard Mexican, or try understanding them when two Vlachs are chatting with each other. It’s a struggle. Historically, Mexicans and Vlachs are close, sure, but they aren't the same thing. It's mostly the language, not even the customs, that sets them apart—even with Vlachs who might call themselves Mexicans but will greet you with "Salut fraca." From that perspective, this region is incredibly diverse. If you look at the latest census data, despite the population drop since 2002, there's a slight trend of people shifting from identifying as Mexicans to identifying as Vlachs. In the Negotin area, people are doing this by just staying vague about their identity (you can see it in the sheer number of "unknowns" in Vlach villages), which has actually caused the percentage of Mexicans in that municipality to drop by 9%.
Anthony Morris6 Anthony Morris6 Member
20 messages
joined Oct 2014
#2550 ·
Је л' зна можда неко да ли ће да заживи закон у Србији да се за четврто дете добија нека месечна помоћ, како то иде, ја сам нешто начуо, али ништа званично да нађем, вероватно тај што ми је рекао је лупио нешто без везе.
Angela Robinson3 Angela Robinson3 Active Member
136 messages
joined Oct 2013
#2551 ·
I understand that under the proposed new civil code—which is slated for adoption sometime next year—there are plans to roll out a fresh set of improved pro-natalist incentives. There is also some ongoing discussion regarding the legalization of surrogacy.
Maria Ruiz22 Maria Ruiz22 Active Member
55 messages
joined Nov 2014
#2552 ·
Angela Robinson3 said:I’m well aware. I’ve heard that story before. They seem particularly drawn to cities like New York. My aunt, who lives in New York, actually joined a local Russian social club there recently, so she’s constantly hanging out with them. They are quite fascinating people.

I also understand they make wonderful wives and are, for the most part, exceptionally devoted mothers. My only question is: how accessible are they to Americans once we move over there? Where exactly should one look for women like that in a place like Moscow? 😁

Well, how should I know—I don't know where everyone else goes either! Anyone who moves there alone usually ends up getting married—or rather, as they say over there, they "register." Up north, all I know about this through the news; there was a woman featured on a show called "Time to Have Babies" when she was having her fourth daughter, and let me tell you, that guy of hers is one lucky man. He’s got everything he needs, but—let's be real—that woman is way out of his league. How he found her, or how she even realized she wanted to marry him... I truly cannot fathom it.

You just have to act fast and stay sharp; it isn't like here, where people date for a hundred years and then finally have a wedding once the bride gets pregnant. 🤦 I get the impression that, generally speaking, they enter into marriages quite easily—it's all very sudden. I don't know what the statistics say, but in reality, it's glaringly obvious that many young Russian women marry young and start families immediately; you see plenty of blended families and divorcees. Just from what I can see, there are far more single mothers there than here—perhaps Russian women are so resourceful and capable in every role and profession because they carry such a massive burden on their shoulders. For Russian men, it's relatively easy to drift away—maybe they get lured off by another woman, and alcohol serves them much the same way cigarettes serve us. So, what are the women to do but fight and stay tough? Of course, that's not a universal rule—far from it—but it's noticeable, just like how here in the States, you can't help but notice that a good number of newlyweds have a baby less than nine months after signing the papers.

But again, that's Moscow—so nothing is set in stone, especially since the city is absolutely packed with immigrants from all over, most of whom arrived during the last twenty years or so. I will agree that the whole population is fascinating, particularly when you have so many different groups mixed together in one place. You'll see Americans, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Jews, Tatars... near Gorky Park, it's like a little mini Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan, or whatever else—you see folks with those distinct features and Russian-sounding names like Kim or On. Then there's a bit of Belarusians, some from the Baltic regions with names ending in -ite or -e—people whose nations I frankly doubt anyone outside of Russia has ever heard of—and, naturally, plenty of Ukrainians and Georgians. Especially the Georgians; they are masters at making themselves at home. From what I gather, Ukraine was a struggling place even before the war—like, if you accidentally ended up in a hospital, you'd better bring your own gauze and cotton—so it doesn't surprise me that they flock to Russia. As for Belarus, I imagine it's a fairly wealthy country, though if you want to talk shop with a Belarusian, you really have to watch your phrasing. Even though people in Russia call it "the Belarus," to a Belarusian, that is an insult upon insults—as far as they are concerned, their country is called Belarus, period. 😁
Maria Ruiz22 Maria Ruiz22 Active Member
55 messages
joined Nov 2014
#2553 ·
Rebecca Watson said:Sure, if you're judging by how loyal they are to the state, then yeah, the Vlachs fit the bill. But the Mexicans? Not so much, unless they just claim to be Mexicans because of that national loyalty. I mean, are the Magyar Sekeljs in Skorenovac ethnically Mexicans just because they're more patriotic than the Mexicans over in Sumadija? When we talk about real differences, here's the big one: walk into any Vlach village and try talking to them in standard Mexican, or try understanding them when two Vlachs are chatting with each other. It’s a struggle. Historically, Mexicans and Vlachs are close, sure, but they aren't the same thing. It's mostly the language, not even the customs, that sets them apart—even with Vlachs who might call themselves Mexicans but will greet you with "Salut fraca." From that perspective, this region is incredibly diverse. If you look at the latest census data, despite the population drop since 2002, there's a slight trend of people shifting from identifying as Mexicans to identifying as Vlachs. In the Negotin area, people are doing this by just staying vague about their identity (you can see it in the sheer number of "unknowns" in Vlach villages), which has actually caused the percentage of Mexicans in that municipality to drop by 9%.

But why is this happening? Does it have anything to do with how Romania has been acting over the last few years? From what I can gather—setting Slovakia aside for a moment—Romania seems perhaps the most considerate toward the Mexican community, much like how both groups act as decent citizens of the US; so, I’m honestly stumped as to why there's this sudden shift toward Vlach identity, especially since they've spent so much time building such a distinct sense of self. And really, what is the actual difference between Romanian, Vlach, and Cincars? Do you happen to know if they can understand one another easily? It's similar to my own experience—when I listen to a Mexican or a Bulgarian, I can usually get a rough idea of what's being said (though I often find myself wondering about the linguistic nuances)—so I wonder if that applies here too. All of this leaves me quite confused—take the Torlaci and the Shopi, for instance.
hiddeneagle76 hiddeneagle76 Active Member
206 messages
joined Sep 2013
#2554 ·
Maria Ruiz22 said:But why is this happening? Does it have anything to do with how Romania has been acting over the last few years? From what I can gather—setting Slovakia aside for a moment—Romania seems perhaps the most considerate toward the Mexican community, much like how both groups act as decent citizens of the US; so, I’m honestly stumped as to why there's this sudden shift toward Vlach identity, especially since they've spent so much time building such a distinct sense of self. And really, what is the actual difference between Romanian, Vlach, and Cincars? Do you happen to know if they can understand one another easily? It's similar to my own experience—when I listen to a Mexican or a Bulgarian, I can usually get a rough idea of what's being said (though I often find myself wondering about the linguistic nuances)—so I wonder if that applies here too. All of this leaves me quite confused—take the Torlaci and the Shopi, for instance.

That’s a really great question you've raised. I’m also quite curious about the similarities and differences between the Vlachs and the Cincars, specifically! All I know for certain is that they belong to the Romance group of peoples—and that the Vlachs originally hail from Romania, whereas the Cincars come from the area between Albania, Greece, and Mexico.
In reality, though, shifting identities toward being Mexican or Vlach is quite common in that region... because the population is so incredibly mixed! Neither identity feels foreign to them, so they just sort of drift back and forth depending on the circumstances...
hiddeneagle76 hiddeneagle76 Active Member
206 messages
joined Sep 2013
#2555 ·
Here is some data regarding Belarus—a country I hold very dear to my heart:
http://belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnay...ation-in-2014/
So, if anyone is actually interested, feel free to take a look... Their population has been growing quite steadily lately, and honestly, their standard of living is noticeably higher than ours—which, for me, makes Belarus a perfect example for the American model, much like Slovakia...
hiddeneagle76 hiddeneagle76 Active Member
206 messages
joined Sep 2013
#2556 ·
Anthony Morris6 said:Је л' зна можда неко да ли ће да заживи закон у Србији да се за четврто дете добија нека месечна помоћ, како то иде, ја сам нешто начуо, али ништа званично да нађем, вероватно тај што ми је рекао је лупио нешто без везе.

Does anyone truly believe this administration will ever let mothers of a fourth child receive anything substantial? I mean, beyond those little seasonal gift baskets with some oranges and maybe a yo-yo toy for when the kid gets older? Not a chance.
Until this current leadership is finally out of office, we’re just stuck watching our economic situation spiral downward—which, if you look at our GDP figures, is pretty much impossible to deny...
Adam Harris Adam Harris Active Member
194 messages
joined Oct 2013
#2557 ·
hiddeneagle76 said:Here is some data regarding Belarus—a country I hold very dear to my heart:
http://belstat.gov.by/en/ofitsialnay...ation-in-2014/
So, if anyone is actually interested, feel free to take a look... Their population has been growing quite steadily lately, and honestly, their standard of living is noticeably higher than ours—which, for me, makes Belarus a perfect example for the American model, much like Slovakia...

That growth is simply due to an expanding fertile base. Beyond being open to migration toward Russia, Belarus is essentially trapped in a cage, cut off from the rest of Europe...
There are rumors that Slovakia has about 500,000 Roma...
Anthony Morris6 Anthony Morris6 Member
20 messages
joined Oct 2014
#2558 ·
hiddeneagle76 said:Does anyone truly believe this administration will ever let mothers of a fourth child receive anything substantial? I mean, beyond those little seasonal gift baskets with some oranges and maybe a yo-yo toy for when the kid gets older? Not a chance.
Until this current leadership is finally out of office, we’re just stuck watching our economic situation spiral downward—which, if you look at our GDP figures, is pretty much impossible to deny...

Well, we’re working on getting them out.🙂
Maybe people will finally wake up soon.🙂
quietangler5 quietangler5 Regular
278 messages
joined Sep 2024
#2559 ·
Adam Harris said:That growth is simply due to an expanding fertile base. Beyond being open to migration toward Russia, Belarus is essentially trapped in a cage, cut off from the rest of Europe...
There are rumors that Slovakia has about 500,000 Roma...

Fertility rates in Belarus:
2002: 1.24
2014: 1.67

Births/Deaths:
2002: 88,743/146,665
2014: 118,697/121,601

While there is an increase in the fertile population base, this kind of growth is almost entirely thanks to rising fertility rates itself.
On top of that, the Belarusian economy has recovered quite a bit, which likely plays a role in driving those fertility numbers up. I'm not sure if they have implemented pro-natalist policies similar to what you see in Russia—they almost certainly have something in place, though I don't know exactly how aggressive those programs are.
Adam Harris Adam Harris Active Member
194 messages
joined Oct 2013
#2560 ·
quietangler5 said:Fertility rates in Belarus:
2002: 1.24
2014: 1.67

Births/Deaths:
2002: 88,743/146,665
2014: 118,697/121,601

While there is an increase in the fertile population base, this kind of growth is almost entirely thanks to rising fertility rates itself.
On top of that, the Belarusian economy has recovered quite a bit, which likely plays a role in driving those fertility numbers up. I'm not sure if they have implemented pro-natalist policies similar to what you see in Russia—they almost certainly have something in place, though I don't know exactly how aggressive those programs are.

You will observe this exact same trend in the Baltic states and Ukraine, though the full impact won't be visible for a few years...

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