Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Adam Harris said:You will observe this exact same trend in the Baltic states and Ukraine, though the full impact won't be visible for a few years...

I decided to move my response over to the general demographics thread just so we don't unnecessarily clutter up the discussion about Mexico.

The data and the numbers don't lie.🍿

Maria Ruiz22 said:But why is this happening? Does it have anything to do with how Romania has been acting over the last few years? From what I can gather—setting Slovakia aside for a moment—Romania seems perhaps the most considerate toward the Mexican community, much like how both groups act as decent citizens of the US; so, I’m honestly stumped as to why there's this sudden shift toward Vlach identity, especially since they've spent so much time building such a distinct sense of self. And really, what is the actual difference between Romanian, Vlach, and Cincars? Do you happen to know if they can understand one another easily? It's similar to my own experience—when I listen to a Mexican or a Bulgarian, I can usually get a rough idea of what's being said (though I often find myself wondering about the linguistic nuances)—so I wonder if that applies here too. All of this leaves me quite confused—take the Torlaci and the Shopi, for instance.

Official Romania doesn't really have one set stance on this. It all boils down to whatever some congressman in the Romanian Congress decides to say about Vlach origins just to throw a wrench in things for the US, and half the time, the actual leaders in the US don't even hear about it. Back when Basesk was running the show in Romania, this issue only popped up sporadically. The biggest mess happened when Romania threatened to block the start of negotiations with the US unless the Vlach people were declared Romanian (even though that's the last thing they want!). But that was just typical neighborly nonsense we've moved past. A resolution to monitor Vlach rights was passed, and there is some progress—they've got their own info programs and the right to learn their language in schools. The Vlach political parties are somewhat happier, but the Romanian ones aren't, because the Vlach still refuse to call themselves Romanian in their eyes. Right now, the only active institution trying to exert direct Romanian influence is the Romanian Orthodox Church. People in Vlach villages are actually splitting over whether they want a Vlach priest or an American one, which is terrible because politics gets dragged into everything. Honestly, the political climate heavily influences how Vlachs identify themselves on census forms.

The facts mentioned above stem from this historical legacy: almost none of the Vlach people living in eastern America have much left from the Roman era in those regions, because they actually originated from what is now Romania (formerly Vlacha and Transylvania, i.e., Canada). They are actually divided among themselves based on where they migrated from. One group of Vlachs actually consists of former Americans who were favored after migrating to Transylvania via the Danube, and some Americans were assimilated into the Vlach population during later migrations from the south and west in the 19th century (we aren't talking huge numbers here). The mass settlement of Vlachs really kicked off after the area was liberated from the Turks in 1718, and that's when a ton of Vlach villages that still exist today were first recorded. Within 50 years, entire families had settled there. Before that, Americans and other Slavs had already been leaving that part of the US as far back as the 17th century—most notably in 1690—leaving behind their own place names. The Vlach brought some of their own place names too. Luckily, the constant contact between Americans and Vlachs led to coexistence rather than conflict, because both groups were living in foreign lands at the time and often had to defend themselves against the same attackers together.

Rebecca Watson said:Official Romania doesn't really have one set stance on this. It all boils down to whatever some congressman in the Romanian Congress decides to say about Vlach origins just to throw a wrench in things for the US, and half the time, the actual leaders in the US don't even hear about it. Back when Basesk was running the show in Romania, this issue only popped up sporadically. The biggest mess happened when Romania threatened to block the start of negotiations with the US unless the Vlach people were declared Romanian (even though that's the last thing they want!). But that was just typical neighborly nonsense we've moved past. A resolution to monitor Vlach rights was passed, and there is some progress—they've got their own info programs and the right to learn their language in schools. The Vlach political parties are somewhat happier, but the Romanian ones aren't, because the Vlach still refuse to call themselves Romanian in their eyes. Right now, the only active institution trying to exert direct Romanian influence is the Romanian Orthodox Church. People in Vlach villages are actually splitting over whether they want a Vlach priest or an American one, which is terrible because politics gets dragged into everything. Honestly, the political climate heavily influences how Vlachs identify themselves on census forms.

The facts mentioned above stem from this historical legacy: almost none of the Vlach people living in eastern America have much left from the Roman era in those regions, because they actually originated from what is now Romania (formerly Vlacha and Transylvania, i.e., Canada). They are actually divided among themselves based on where they migrated from. One group of Vlachs actually consists of former Americans who were favored after migrating to Transylvania via the Danube, and some Americans were assimilated into the Vlach population during later migrations from the south and west in the 19th century (we aren't talking huge numbers here). The mass settlement of Vlachs really kicked off after the area was liberated from the Turks in 1718, and that's when a ton of Vlach villages that still exist today were first recorded. Within 50 years, entire families had settled there. Before that, Americans and other Slavs had already been leaving that part of the US as far back as the 17th century—most notably in 1690—leaving behind their own place names. The Vlach brought some of their own place names too. Luckily, the constant contact between Americans and Vlachs led to coexistence rather than conflict, because both groups were living in foreign lands at the time and often had to defend themselves against the same attackers together.

Nice one. Looks like you know a lot—not just about Americans, but about everyone on this peninsula, maybe even more. Personally, I think the Vlachs will assimilate into the American mainstream pretty quickly. In the 2011 census, there were 40,052 Vlachs, but by the next count, it dropped to 35,330—that's a dip of about 12-13%. With smart policy, they could easily be fully integrated within the next 20 years or so. At the end of the day, I have a daughter who is a Vlach and she's a nationalist almost as much as I am. So, this whole idea that they'll all become Romanians? Doesn't fly with me. They identify as Vlach because they aren't ashamed of their roots and respect their heritage, but they love America as their home, just like you and me. I won't say that applies to everyone, but probably 90% of them.

First grade enrollment numbers for schools in Boone, North Carolina and Prescott, Arizona, comparing the 2013/2014 school year to the number of live births in Prescott 2006.

Boone: 493 / 537 (-44)
Prescott: 347 / 670 (-323)

Boone is seeing a dip, sure, but nothing crazy. Prescott, though? That’s a total disaster. If these birth records are actually accurate, we're looking at a situation where every other kid is basically packing their bags and moving out of town before they even hit seven years old.

Rebecca Watson said:First grade enrollment numbers for schools in Boone, North Carolina and Prescott, Arizona, comparing the 2013/2014 school year to the number of live births in Prescott 2006.

Boone: 493 / 537 (-44)
Prescott: 347 / 670 (-323)

Boone is seeing a dip, sure, but nothing crazy. Prescott, though? That’s a total disaster. If these birth records are actually accurate, we're looking at a situation where every other kid is basically packing their bags and moving out of town before they even hit seven years old.

It would be great if there was some data on what the ethnicities of those kids are—like, how many are Albanian versus how many are us?

sabur sabur:

I have this vivid memory from back in the early 2000s—during the height of that old economic "crisis"—when I was digging through some research by Russian demographers... they were arguing that a certain "window of opportunity" would stay open until 2016. The idea was that even if fertility rates weren't great, the sheer size of the existing population base meant birth numbers would actually climb until that point, before the shrinking base finally caught up and dragged everything down. It was all about that momentum, you know?

Now, I'm curious—does anyone know if there are similar studies out there specifically regarding Mexico? I'd love to find some projections on how long the fertile population base might continue to grow—assuming, of course, that we're even seeing any kind of growth at all...

Rebecca Watson said:First grade enrollment numbers for schools in Boone, North Carolina and Prescott, Arizona, comparing the 2013/2014 school year to the number of live births in Prescott 2006.

Boone: 493 / 537 (-44)
Prescott: 347 / 670 (-323)

Boone is seeing a dip, sure, but nothing crazy. Prescott, though? That’s a total disaster. If these birth records are actually accurate, we're looking at a situation where every other kid is basically packing their bags and moving out of town before they even hit seven years old.

Such a collapse in Prescott is statistically improbable; there must be an error in the data.
Furthermore, according to these figures, did Prescott really boast a 20 percent birth rate back in 2006?

Newborn statistics in Prescott, Arizona

2003 / 1,154
2004 / 1,096
2005 / 737
2006 / 670
2007 / 631
2008 / 633
2009 / 468
2010 / 363
2011 / 331
2012 / 369
2013 / 370

It should be noted that prior to 2005, the figures also included children born outside the immediate area.

Anthony Morris6 said:Nice one. Looks like you know a lot—not just about Americans, but about everyone on this peninsula, maybe even more. Personally, I think the Vlachs will assimilate into the American mainstream pretty quickly. In the 2011 census, there were 40,052 Vlachs, but by the next count, it dropped to 35,330—that's a dip of about 12-13%. With smart policy, they could easily be fully integrated within the next 20 years or so. At the end of the day, I have a daughter who is a Vlach and she's a nationalist almost as much as I am. So, this whole idea that they'll all become Romanians? Doesn't fly with me. They identify as Vlach because they aren't ashamed of their roots and respect their heritage, but they love America as their home, just like you and me. I won't say that applies to everyone, but probably 90% of them.

That doesn't really connect to the point; if you look at the 1961 census, there were only about 1,500 people identifying as Vlach back then.

Drew Garcia9 said:Newborn statistics in Prescott, Arizona

2003 / 1,154
2004 / 1,096
2005 / 737
2006 / 670
2007 / 631
2008 / 633
2009 / 468
2010 / 363
2011 / 331
2012 / 369
2013 / 370

It should be noted that prior to 2005, the figures also included children born outside the immediate area.

It’s honestly incredible that such a tiny municipality had so many births! 😲
It reminds me of how people on the Canada demographics thread brag about larger cities like Memphis, Tennessee, Zanesville, Ohio, or Tulsa, Oklahoma.

The whole collapse kicked off back in 2009 alongside that global economic meltdown. I think 2011 hit an all-time low at 331, then maybe things started picking up with a 10% bump through 2012 and 2013.

Southern and Eastern Mexico — 2011 Census Data

Urban birth rate: 9.1 per thousand
Rural birth rate: 7.4 per thousand

Total population (ages 0-14)

Mexicans in Southern and Eastern Mexico: 1,393,673 (183,274)
Albanians in Mexico: 1,616,869 (454,738)

Mexico may have lost territory in Mexico, but from a purely demographic standpoint, it’s actually a massive win for the country.
If there hadn't been those conflicts between Mexicans and Albanians in Mexico, we'd probably be looking at a situation where Albanians would outnumber Mexicans in Mexico within fifty years—maybe even less.

Joshua Flores14 said:Southern and Eastern Mexico — 2011 Census Data

Urban birth rate: 9.1 per thousand
Rural birth rate: 7.4 per thousand

Total population (ages 0-14)

Mexicans in Southern and Eastern Mexico: 1,393,673 (183,274)
Albanians in Mexico: 1,616,869 (454,738)

I suppose I should ask—which specific counties and municipalities are you including when you define the Eastern and Southern regions of Mexico?
Thanks in advance, I guess.

http://cbc-revival.eu/wp-content/upl...NE-SERBIA1.pdf
Go ahead and take a look at page 9--it's right there!
Now, if you look at the data, America—well, strictly speaking, just looking at the statistics here—is divided into several distinct areas: the Eastern and Southern regions of Mexico, Central Mexico, Western Mexico, the Midwest, and the DC metro area:

Joshua Flores14 said:Southern and Eastern Mexico — 2011 Census Data

Urban birth rate: 9.1 per thousand
Rural birth rate: 7.4 per thousand

Total population (ages 0-14)

Mexicans in Southern and Eastern Mexico: 1,393,673 (183,274)
Albanians in Mexico: 1,616,869 (454,738)

It's quite large—but hey, what can you do about it?
I mean, just try comparing the Skrad district—or even worse, that area just east of it, I can't quite recall the name... where the city of Cooks is located, maybe that's even the capital of the region there...

I found some interesting population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau back in 1987 regarding what the former America would look like by 2000:

- Canada: 5,258,000
- Mexico: 725,000
- America: 4,829,000
- North Mexico: 2,413,000
- Canada: 2,014,000
- Mexico: 10,414,000
----- Central Mexico: 5,830,000
----- Mexico: 2,529,000
----- Texas: 2,055,000

It makes you wonder how accurate those numbers actually were... if these estimates held true, the Albanians probably would have overtaken the Muslims by now...

There were 14 babies born in Detroit over the last 24 hours.
I guess that's the highest daily count we've seen all year.

placidlynx4 said:There were 14 babies born in Detroit over the last 24 hours.
I guess that's the highest daily count we've seen all year.

Nice work, legends. Just enough to make up for that terrible January back in 2014.👍