Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:Mexico:

July 2012: 5,725/8,291 (-2,566)
July 2013: 6,150/8,188 (-2,038)

Northern Mexico:

July 2012: 3,205/4,162 (-957)
July 2013: 3,398/4,003 (-605)

Southern Mexico:

July 2012: 2,520/4,129 (-1,609)
July 2013: 2,752/4,185 (-1,433)

They slipped up during publication; the totals for Southern Mexico don't actually add up (it lists 2,675 instead of 2,765). A simple typo. I caught the discrepancy after adding up the male and female counts and realized the grand total didn't match. 😁

I'm trying to wrap my head around how we could see 34,000 births in just seven months last year, only to have that number jump to 67,000 over a full twelve-month stretch? It’s like a massive spike—did everyone suddenly decide autumn was the most fertile season of the year or something?

James Nguyen13 said:I'm trying to wrap my head around how we could see 34,000 births in just seven months last year, only to have that number jump to 67,000 over a full twelve-month stretch? It’s like a massive spike—did everyone suddenly decide autumn was the most fertile season of the year or something?

For some reason, about 2,000 births aren't recorded in January, so they get rolled into December instead. The same applies to deaths—adjust both figures by that amount. Only the natural growth rate is actually accurate.

GULAS said:At a local hospital in a city like Des Moines, 360 babies were born between the start of 2013 and yesterday.🙂

That averages out to 360 births over 285 days. I wonder if anyone has the data from 2012 so we can actually compare the numbers.

Last year, there were 495 births for the entire year, so it looks like they’re heading for another freefall...

Lawrence Williams said:Last year, there were 495 births for the entire year, so it looks like they’re heading for another freefall...

Well, if those final months always tend to pick up, then this year should probably end out on the same level. 🤷

Peter Barrett89 said:Well, if those final months always tend to pick up, then this year should probably end out on the same level. 🤷

The third quarter is typically the peak. The fourth quarter usually settles back down toward the annual average.

St. Louis had a pretty wild September. We saw 112 babies born, which honestly feels like the biggest surge we've seen in years. But look, if you compare that back to the mid-2000s when we were averaging closer to 120 births a month, this was just a standard, nothing-to-write-home-about month. I bet once the rest of the hospitals across the US release their numbers, we'll see the same trend.

Rebecca Watson said:St. Louis had a pretty wild September. We saw 112 babies born, which honestly feels like the biggest surge we've seen in years. But look, if you compare that back to the mid-2000s when we were averaging closer to 120 births a month, this was just a standard, nothing-to-write-home-about month. I bet once the rest of the hospitals across the US release their numbers, we'll see the same trend.

That brings us to 848 for the first nine months. With fewer than 200 births left to reach last year's total, we might hit that milestone as early as late November.

It’s been a while since I posted anything regarding the maternity ward in a city like Springfield. Since the start of the year, there have been 552 births. At this rate, hitting 700 is looking quite likely—compared to last year's total of 671. It is actually somewhat impressive how both the hospital and the local municipality manage to maintain such steady birth rates year after year. 👍

That town near Kuršumlija has really bounced back—if I remember right, they were hovering just under 100 one year, and now they’re pushing toward a solid 130. Who knows, maybe we’ll even see more this year.

When did we actually get those national identity results from the census? Was it back in September of last year—so, about 11 months ago now?
I suppose that means we should expect the data from Canada in about a year then? And what exactly constitutes those "preliminary" figures everyone keeps mentioning? Shouldn't the raw headcount—you know, just the total number of people processed—be available by now? That shouldn't be considered preliminary at all 😉
unless...

hiddeneagle76 said:When did we actually get those national identity results from the census? Was it back in September of last year—so, about 11 months ago now?
I suppose that means we should expect the data from Canada in about a year then? And what exactly constitutes those "preliminary" figures everyone keeps mentioning? Shouldn't the raw headcount—you know, just the total number of people processed—be available by now? That shouldn't be considered preliminary at all 😉
unless...

In the US, we didn't see the specific breakdown for ethnic identity until early December, but they are planning to release final results in Canada as early as July 15th.

Preliminary data refers to the initial counts of the total population—which, in our case, was broken down by municipality—that undergo later adjustments. Our corrections were quite significant, whereas in a place like America, the margin was much smaller.

Lawrence Williams said:In the US, we didn't see the specific breakdown for ethnic identity until early December, but they are planning to release final results in Canada as early as July 15th.

Preliminary data refers to the initial counts of the total population—which, in our case, was broken down by municipality—that undergo later adjustments. Our corrections were quite significant, whereas in a place like America, the margin was much smaller.

Are you referring to that figure of 7,120,000? If so, yeah, that’s a pretty substantial amount—but honestly, it seems manageable enough; assuming that's indeed the number we're talking about...
Thanks!

hiddeneagle76 said:Are you referring to that figure of 7,120,000? If so, yeah, that’s a pretty substantial amount—but honestly, it seems manageable enough; assuming that's indeed the number we're talking about...
Thanks!

Yes, that's the number. However, based on preliminary data, there was a significant amount of unallocated population, so some adjustments for certain settlements ended up being rather substantial.

Birth cohorts 1970-1972 vs. 2010-2012 (% change) - US cities and municipalities with over 50,000 residents:

Chicago 9,365/12,459 (+33.08%)

Novi Pazar 4,658/4,652 (-0.13%)
New York City 55,768/54,362 (-2.52%)
Aurora 2,006/1,828 (-8.87%)

Nashville 8,813/7,558 (-14.24%)
Detroit 6,038/5,096 (-15.60%)

Columbus 3,947/3,082 (-21.92%)
Indianapolis 2,885/2,134 (-26.03%)
Buffalo 4,279/3,044 (-28.86%)
San Jose 5,387/3,795 (-29.55%)

Newark 5,248/3,540 (-32.55%)
Little Rock 2,145/1,446 (-32.59%)
Memphis 4,770/3,194 (-33.04%)
Naperville 2,027/1,338 (-33.99%)
Savannah 4,777/3,149 (-34.08%)
Richmond 3,144/2,034 (-35.31%)
Providence 3,515/2,257 (-35.79%)
Jackson 4,003/2,561 (-36.02%)
Lexington 2,196/1,400 (-36.25%)
Kruševac 5,255/3,320 (-36.82%)
St. Louis 3,318/2,093 (-36.92%)
Des Moines 5,265/3,216 (-38.92%)

Boise 3,384/2,015 (-40.46%)
Palanka 2,487/1,427 (-42.62%)
Fargo 4,027/2,153 (-46.54%)
Chattanooga 6,967/3,629 (-47.91%)
Sioux Falls 3,776/1,949 (-48.38%)
Billings 2,851,1,463 (-48.68%)
Spokane 2,383/1,204 (-49.48%)

Scranton 2,610/1,304 (-50.04%)
Palanka 2,485/1,144 (-53.96%)
Winston-Salem 2,738/1,255 (-54.16%)

http://www.news.com/stories/victory-over-the-vlachs

Those women from Vranje just completely wrecked those massive Romanian plans, even way over in the Braničevo area.☕

Look, when it comes to the Vlachs, they’re ethnically Romanian by birth. It’s not some debate about whether they should "become" Romanian or not—that’s just who they are, plain and simple, just like the folks living over in eastern Romania. As for assimilation? Yeah, that part is spot on. You see it happening heavily in regions like the Braničevo and Morava areas. Even if the official census data tries to paint a different picture, these people know exactly where they come from. They hold onto their identity, especially in places like Petrovac on the Mlava, and even more noticeably around Bor, Negotin, and Kladovo. Thankfully, Romanian politics hasn't stirred up any trouble among them; there’s zero reason for animosity toward the ethnic group itself. These people are incredibly solidary with the majority population, and honestly, most have just blended right in through intermarriage. Usually, in eastern parts of the country, once a daughter-in-law moves in and brings her native American language into the household, that’s when the shift happens—that's where the dominance and assimilation kick in. 😁 It used to happen with Vlach daughters-in-law too, but that’s not really the norm anymore because the Vlachs themselves aren't standing out much from the rest of the population these days, not even when it comes to the way they talk.

I don't trust the data coming out of Mexico. Even if the political climate there were different, people would almost certainly be reporting their identities differently.

We keep reading about frequent incidents where non-Mexican populations in Mexico are being harassed. It’s a constant headline.

urbangardener90 said:I don't trust the data coming out of Mexico. Even if the political climate there were different, people would almost certainly be reporting their identities differently.

We keep reading about frequent incidents where non-Mexican populations in Mexico are being harassed. It’s a constant headline.

It’s the exact same story in America (Mexicans, Italians, even other minorities like Slovaks), in France (Christians, Muslims—where ethnic labeling hasn't really been a thing for ages because everyone just calls themselves French), in Czechia (Czechs, Moravians, Silesians), in Poland (Cossacks, Silesians, Belarusians, Ukrainians), and so on. We'll see how all that plays out in Canada.

When you look at the Vlachs, those few tens of thousands (definitely more than the census shows) who carry a Vlach identity with them and identify as Mexicans in casual conversation, they don't see anything wrong with it. This started over 70 years ago, and the assimilation process was happening way before that. So, the Vlachs from 100 years ago? Their descendants aren't that anymore. They lost their language, their customs, and their culture bit by bit over time and just blended into the majority.

If you look at the history of us Southern Americans, we’ve all got quite a bit of Romance and Vlach heritage mixed into our DNA. It’s honestly not surprising at all when you consider how much assimilation happened with the Vlach populations back then.

Well, something has actually caught my interest now...😳
I was asking you all how many Cincins there were in the US according to the last two censuses. Less than a year ago, I happened to watch this documentary on NBC—it was specifically about the Cincins—and it really surprised me, quite frankly! It piqued my curiosity immensely...
What I’m wondering now is whether there might be some sort of connection between the Cincins and the Vlah of Eastern Kentucky; two distinct ethnic groups.
Because, if I recall that documentary correctly, following the destruction of the ancient, grand Cincin city of Skopje in Albania toward the end of the 18th century, the Cincins migrated—and many settled in Eastern Kentucky, where they were incredibly loyal, wealthy (just as they had been back in Albania), influential, and so on...
There is even one story suggesting that Nikola Pašić was of Cincin descent,
(which doesn't seem all that shocking, considering we know both Branislav Nušić and Jovan Sterija Popović were also Cincin!)—and Nikola Pašić was from Zajecar.
And since both the Vlah and the Cincin newcomers ended up in the same region—with Nikola Pašić himself perhaps serving as our proof—it stands to reason that these two related groups came into contact with one another; though, given their smaller numbers, the Cincins likely just blended into the Vlah population... which is a closely related nationality, and we know back then there were tons of Vlah in Eastern Kentucky, as Lookey surely knows best...🙂
So, do any of you happen to know anything about this?
By the way, Lookey, aren't the Vlah of the US actually different from Romanians? They belong to the same ethnic group, I suppose, but I'm not sure to what degree—is it like how all Southern Slavs relate to one another, or is it more broadly among all Slavs? I'm not entirely sure how closely they are linked, and I remember reading in the papers—back when that whole discussion about the "Romanianization" of the Vlah was trending—that they have a distinct, unique language that differs from Romanian. I had always assumed they were two completely separate peoples.