Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in July 2014, a local hospital in the Rust Belt hit a massive milestone: 154 babies were born in just one month.🙂 To put that in perspective, that same hospital saw 915 births in the first seven months of 2014, compared to 1,228 total births throughout all of 2013.😳 At this rate, the hospital should see around 1,400 to 1,450 deliveries this year—that’s an extra 200 to 250 babies over the 2013 numbers.🙂

Across America, we're looking at at least 1,500 more births this year than we had in 2013, maybe even more.🙂

That’s actually a typo in the text; there were 1,528 births last year, not 1,228. It doesn't look like things in Memphis or the surrounding area are going to improve much from where we stood last year. Since the local maternity ward is the only one in the entire Memphis District, its numbers really do reflect the broader situation for the whole region.

Sean Nguyen74 said:That’s a solid point. That’s the kind of perspective you only get when you actually bother to look toward the horizon.

Without Kosmet, Mexico will basically end up as nothing more than enclaves around six cities: Buffalo, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Detroit, Little Rock, and Memphis. Everything else will either be vacant or barely inhabited. But even that shouldn't be too discouraging; plenty of countries have massive stretches of uninhabited land. Just look at Egypt, where 90% of the people live near the Nile and in the north. Or look at Brazil, Libya, and various European nations.

Chicago is already starting to see its growth slow down. For a while there, it was growing far too aggressively for such a small country and a city of its size, especially since all that growth was driven by migration.
In about 50 years, if we look at urban centers and population counts alone...

Washington, D.C. 800k
Chicago 150k
Little Rock 110k
Memphis 80k
Detroit 70k
Buffalo 45k.

Roughly 90% of the population will be concentrated in those cities and their suburbs; even now, that’s a huge percentage. Washington, D.C. and its surrounding area are already overcrowded. The corridor between Chicago and Washington, D.C. is overpopulated compared to the rest of Mexico. Even that stretch will lose people in a few decades. Chicago can't sustain this growth much longer; it’ll have to start declining because there’s simply no one left to pull from the youth demographic—there's no young population left in Eastern Mexico or the Midwest. Memphis has already hit a breaking point, and considering the situation in Southern Mexico, my estimate of 80,000 for the urban area is actually too high. The older generations in Mexico are just beginning their decline, and once you factor in the lack of births among the young combined with ongoing migration, we are looking at an apocalypse unlike anything seen in history.

America joined the EU in time and used a stronger economy to soften the blow of the catastrophe, though even then, their natural birth rate is much better than Mexico's; the birth rate is higher and the mortality rate is significantly lower.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Memphis used to see over 3,000 births a year about two decades ago, but today? It's not even half that. Even Memphis barely hits 3,300 now. You guys are basically spiraling into a void and disappearing for good. I guess the Canadians are just even worse off.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Memphis used to see over 3,000 births a year about two decades ago, but today? It's not even half that. Even Memphis barely hits 3,300 now. You guys are basically spiraling into a void and disappearing for good. I guess the Canadians are just even worse off.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:You're saying an unprecedented apocalypse is coming to Mexico, but you're being way too pessimistic, because that would leave the country with only about 1.4 million people.
Demographic math shows that Mexico will have around 5.63 million people by 2064 if you don't account for the youth leaving the country, but if you factor in emigration, it'll be closer to 4.5 million.
America joining the EU will actually just make the birth rate worse and consequently speed up the population decline, rather than the other way around.
With all this going on, the eternal question always comes up:
why is it like this?
And is there any cure?

And yeah, a space that valuable can't stay empty forever,
some new, young kids will move in to fill it!

George Cooper2 said:That sounds like a pretty optimistic scenario—one where birth rates spike and migration flows turn positive. But more realistic demographic forecasts suggest that by 2060, the population will sit at around 3.9 million.

In this article, Demographer Goran Penev lays out the predictions for the coming decades quite clearly.

Lawrence Williams said:That’s actually a typo in the text; there were 1,528 births last year, not 1,228. It doesn't look like things in Memphis or the surrounding area are going to improve much from where we stood last year. Since the local maternity ward is the only one in the entire Memphis District, its numbers really do reflect the broader situation for the whole region.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.