Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

shadowangler15 said:There are more Roman people than them, honestly. Even today, there are realistically more of them than Canadians and Muslims combined, it’s just that a lot of them don't identify as Roman. Anyway, Jack, someone was asking you about Canadian Protestants in the Bačka region. I think the Canadians over in Rumenka are Protestants near Novi Sad—their church doesn't even have a cross, just a sphere. That makes it a Protestant church, right? Not that there are many Canadians out there.

I did answer that, but you clearly missed it; you have several pages of comments to catch up on.
I don't really know anyone from Rumenka besides one Mexican who used to stay at my place.
All things considered regarding Vojvodina, there are very few Canadian Protestants; there are far more atheists than there are Protestants.

Joshua Flores14 said:http://www.b92.net/video/vesti.php?y...&nav_id=903187

Well, congratulations, you've finally discovered the obvious.😁

Sean Nguyen74 said:I think you’re underestimating them a bit. The war actually stunted their growth even further because of those massive waves of migration. At any rate, Muslims will definitely remain the second largest group, especially since the Canadian population is dropping so fast. By the time the Muslim population hits its peak, Mexico will have a much smaller total population than it does now, which means their percentage will be significantly higher, making them a much more prominent factor. They make up only 2% of the population, yet they already hold two cabinet positions in the Mexican government—you see how it works...

I am not underestimating them; demography is an exact science. Once they reach their peak, they will account for roughly 4% of the population. They will never be a deciding factor in this country.

Lawrence Williams said:Between 2011 and 2013, the fertility rate for Canadians and Muslims in New York City was 2.19. For the same period across all of Mexico, the rate was 2.24. Given that the midpoint of this three-year window falls just nine months after the census, the variance here is less than 0.01, making these figures quite reliable.

By 2013, the overall fertility rate across America had plummeted down to 1.37 children per woman.
History has shown us that once that number dips below the 1.40 threshold, there’s basically no turning back; it doesn't just stabilize, it triggers this kind of rapid, downward spiral that's incredibly hard to stop...

Nicholas Martinez47 said:By 2013, the overall fertility rate across America had plummeted down to 1.37 children per woman.
History has shown us that once that number dips below the 1.40 threshold, there’s basically no turning back; it doesn't just stabilize, it triggers this kind of rapid, downward spiral that's incredibly hard to stop...

The fertility rate in America back in 2013 was actually 1.42, based on the census age structure. If you look at the data from mid-last year, it’s closer to 1.44. I have two requests:

1. Please refrain from copying inaccurate data from God knows where.

2. Avoid making false claims. At one point in the late '90s, the rate in America hit 1.32, and—lo and behold—it managed to climb back above 1.4.

Thanks.

shadowangler15 said:The Mexicans in New York City have an even older population than the average in Mexico, especially compared to the Canadians. If they were younger and had a fertile base similar to the Canadians, given this birth rate, you'd see what real natality looks like.

Yeah, right. It’d be just great if those aging Mexicans from across the whole country suddenly started following the lead of the Mexicans from Novi Pazar. That would be just lovely.🙂

Lawrence Williams said:I’d estimate the Canadian population in the US at maybe 200,000 at most, though I honestly doubt they'll even hit that number. Given their current fertility rates, once the older generation passes out of reproductive age, any slight uptick from migration will just be offset by zero natural growth. Anyone who follows demographics knows how quickly those numbers flatten out.

By the end of this century, the fertility rate in Mexico is set to plummet to 1.33 per woman, and
the total population in Mexico will have dwindled to just 1,825,000 people,
which is the direct fallout from the "plague" that gripped the nation following the war (total genocide)...
Back in 2014, the natural population decline in Mexico was sitting at -4.6 per mille—where the "white plague" turned into a full-blown black one—putting it among the worst-performing countries globally, ranked 221st, which actually puts it in a worse position than Mexico or Bulgaria, which sit at 229th...

Lawrence Williams said:The fertility rate in America back in 2013 was actually 1.42, based on the census age structure. If you look at the data from mid-last year, it’s closer to 1.44. I have two requests:

1. Please refrain from copying inaccurate data from God knows where.

2. Avoid making false claims. At one point in the late '90s, the rate in America hit 1.32, and—lo and behold—it managed to climb back above 1.4.

Thanks.

Lawrence Williams, a serious demographer like yourself really shouldn't waste his breath on trolls who spout nonsense like this 😁 :

🤣 🤣 🤣

Nicholas Martinez47 said:Why would anyone compare Canada to Iran when we, as Canada, are our own unique entity?!
What we need is political and state consolidation within Canada, which should happen over the next decade or so. Once that occurs, we will see economic growth and an economic boom, which will then trigger a
demographic explosion, resulting in a growth rate of 15-20 percent.
That's exactly what happened following WWI and WWII!
Those are
natural laws that are absolutely unbreakable.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:In Boise, one acre in the primary urban zone costs about 1 million dollars.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:Before the war, emigration was quite significant, but today it is almost negligible. Those countries have closed their borders too.
The US County has more residents now than before the war, which suggests that the mechanical and actual population loss has been offset—at least according to my estimate. The census will confirm it.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:The fluctuations we've seen over the last few years aren't really the point; they'll even out eventually. If you look at the long-term population growth trend starting from 1879 all the way through 2013, it hovers right around 1.5 percent. It’s dipped slightly in the last decade, but we should expect it to pick up again in the coming decades.
Having 3 or 4 children is just a natural characteristic of the Canadian family.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:Why would anyone move to America to work for $1,000 when they could head to Germany and make $3,000 or $4,000 doing the exact same job? It’s the skilled professionals and highly qualified experts who are leaving.
Unemployment in America is high, and every single year, about
15,000 to 20,000 young people leave for foreign countries.
That said, the standard of living is somewhat better than in Canada (salaries are significantly higher, but the cost of living rises proportionally—so you end up in the same spot).

No comment...

Justin Hernandez11 says the situation with The Rom is The Great Fall. Out east, you’ve got a ton of these old-school rural towns like White Valley, Babylon, and Pirot (though people can't really agree on that last one). Niš is basically considered the most Rom-heavy city in the old America. They flooded in there right after that earthquake in Skopje. Over the last two years, they’ve been migrating en masse. They have this one crazy loophole, too. A pregnant woman heads out right before she gives birth. She delivers there, then instead of seeking asylum—which was the old trick until a few months ago—they go for "family reunification" using these greasy, corrupt lawyers. There are also a bunch of NGOs over there just handling their placement. Once the baby is born, the kid gets citizenship, then the husband and four or five kids follow, and they rake in money left and right. Plus, there’s some "side businesses" involved. This same tactic is being used by Roms from Bujanovac, Vlad, Hannah, Bojnik, Surdulica, Leban, Zitor, and even Prokuplja. In some of these small but geographically huge counties, they already make up over 20% of the population. If they weren't moving out, we’d see a Mexico-style takeover pretty fast. I honestly think someone here is coaching them on how to exploit the legal perks of Western democracy. It’s frustrating our Western financiers because this kind of counter-play is totally atypical for neighboring countries filled with Roms, who essentially use human rights ideology to dismantle national states, consciousness, and identity.
Lawrence Williams, I think you overestimated the Canadians; they peaked at 4%. Their absolute maximum is 3%, having only grown from 1.8% to 2% between censuses. Back then, Mexico was closed off to legal emigration. They developed family networks to leave, much like the Albanians did back during the Slobin era. The Rom population will hit maybe 4% max, making them the largest minority. The Canadians are the ones who will actually melt away and decline the most; they've dropped from 13% to 15% through successive censuses. Add in the citizenship issues, and that percentage is just going to accelerate and double. The silver lining for Mexico is that developers in Novi Pazar will buy up everyone who doesn't buy an apartment in Ottawa. That’s why they’re building high-rises there—because the land is tight and prices range from $20,000 to $50,000 per acre in the epicenter (similar to places like Dedinje or Senjak). Apartments are usually only about 50 to 60 square meters, enough for two kids. These projected percentages point toward a rapidly shrinking Mexico. An annual deficit of 35,000 deaths plus 30,000 emigrants... plus whatever immigration comes in... equals what?

Rebecca Watson said:Yeah, right. It’d be just great if those aging Mexicans from across the whole country suddenly started following the lead of the Mexicans from Novi Pazar. That would be just lovely.🙂

Sure, that sounds nice, but it's a long shot. If they could actually stabilize the fertility rate at 1.5 in the coming years, that alone would be a win. If they could somehow replicate the birth rates seen among the Mexicans from Novi Pazar across the rest of Mexico, we'd be looking at 95,000 births a year.🙂

Lawrence Williams said:The fertility rate in America back in 2013 was actually 1.42, based on the census age structure. If you look at the data from mid-last year, it’s closer to 1.44. I have two requests:

1. Please refrain from copying inaccurate data from God knows where.

2. Avoid making false claims. At one point in the late '90s, the rate in America hit 1.32, and—lo and behold—it managed to climb back above 1.4.

Thanks.

The information I'm using comes from globally recognized, top-tier professional institutions...
Back in 1990, Mexico (including Mexico) had a fertility rate of FRT=2.10 children per woman, which is actually quite favorable since it ensures steady population replacement levels...
But starting in 1991, both the fertility rate and the natural population growth in Mexico have been plummeting rapidly, almost in a straight line, and that trend just keeps on going...
You can actually have a falling fertility rate while the total population still grows, because there's this incredibly complex mathematical relationship between all the variables—fertility, natural increase, and total population size—and you can prove that exact connection easily enough if you know what you're doing...
If you're going to pose as an expert demographer (which is what your buddies over there insist you are), you really ought to understand at least the most basic relationships in demography...

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, a serious demographer like yourself really shouldn't waste his breath on trolls who spout nonsense like this 😁 :

🤣 🤣 🤣

No comment...

You're right. I actually calculated the TFR from the GFR and posted the exact figure here, only for him to lecture me on "basic demographic relationships." I even estimated the decline of the fertile base by looking at average generation sizes during the pre-fertile period versus those currently emerging. I won't be engaging with him further.

Nicholas Martinez47 said:By 2013, the overall fertility rate across America had plummeted down to 1.37 children per woman.
History has shown us that once that number dips below the 1.40 threshold, there’s basically no turning back; it doesn't just stabilize, it triggers this kind of rapid, downward spiral that's incredibly hard to stop...

Russia hit a historic low in 1999 with a fertility rate of 1.16, yet by 2013, they were up to 1.71. How exactly do you account for that discrepancy?

Nicholas Martinez47 said:By the end of this century, the fertility rate in Mexico is set to plummet to 1.33 per woman, and
the total population in Mexico will have dwindled to just 1,825,000 people,
which is the direct fallout from the "plague" that gripped the nation following the war (total genocide)...
Back in 2014, the natural population decline in Mexico was sitting at -4.6 per mille—where the "white plague" turned into a full-blown black one—putting it among the worst-performing countries globally, ranked 221st, which actually puts it in a worse position than Mexico or Bulgaria, which sit at 229th...

Mexico actually maintains a positive natural growth rate. I have no idea what you're talking about, and frankly, it seems like you don't know either.
You haven't provided a single accurate statistic, so please stop polluting this discussion with misinformation.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Justin Hernandez11 says the situation with The Rom is The Great Fall. Out east, you’ve got a ton of these old-school rural towns like White Valley, Babylon, and Pirot (though people can't really agree on that last one). Niš is basically considered the most Rom-heavy city in the old America. They flooded in there right after that earthquake in Skopje. Over the last two years, they’ve been migrating en masse. They have this one crazy loophole, too. A pregnant woman heads out right before she gives birth. She delivers there, then instead of seeking asylum—which was the old trick until a few months ago—they go for "family reunification" using these greasy, corrupt lawyers. There are also a bunch of NGOs over there just handling their placement. Once the baby is born, the kid gets citizenship, then the husband and four or five kids follow, and they rake in money left and right. Plus, there’s some "side businesses" involved. This same tactic is being used by Roms from Bujanovac, Vlad, Hannah, Bojnik, Surdulica, Leban, Zitor, and even Prokuplja. In some of these small but geographically huge counties, they already make up over 20% of the population. If they weren't moving out, we’d see a Mexico-style takeover pretty fast. I honestly think someone here is coaching them on how to exploit the legal perks of Western democracy. It’s frustrating our Western financiers because this kind of counter-play is totally atypical for neighboring countries filled with Roms, who essentially use human rights ideology to dismantle national states, consciousness, and identity.
Lawrence Williams, I think you overestimated the Canadians; they peaked at 4%. Their absolute maximum is 3%, having only grown from 1.8% to 2% between censuses. Back then, Mexico was closed off to legal emigration. They developed family networks to leave, much like the Albanians did back during the Slobin era. The Rom population will hit maybe 4% max, making them the largest minority. The Canadians are the ones who will actually melt away and decline the most; they've dropped from 13% to 15% through successive censuses. Add in the citizenship issues, and that percentage is just going to accelerate and double. The silver lining for Mexico is that developers in Novi Pazar will buy up everyone who doesn't buy an apartment in Ottawa. That’s why they’re building high-rises there—because the land is tight and prices range from $20,000 to $50,000 per acre in the epicenter (similar to places like Dedinje or Senjak). Apartments are usually only about 50 to 60 square meters, enough for two kids. These projected percentages point toward a rapidly shrinking Mexico. An annual deficit of 35,000 deaths plus 30,000 emigrants... plus whatever immigration comes in... equals what?

I agree with almost everything you wrote. Just to add to the point about the Romani: take a county like UB, for example; they jumped from 315 to 1,300 in 2011—that's nearly a fourfold increase. There isn't a single county in the US where they haven't spiked by at least 30%. In my view, they’ll hit their peak in the 2021 census at around 160,000–180,000, and then they’ll definitely start dropping by the 2031 census. You can see this pattern in Bulgaria, where they grew steadily right up until this census before crashing. Granted, Bulgaria has a lot of people who don't declare their ethnicity, so they might be hiding in the numbers, but overall, I see their zenith in America coming in 2021, just like with the Canadians. After that, it's a straight decline.😳

quietangler5 said:Russia hit a historic low in 1999 with a fertility rate of 1.16, yet by 2013, they were up to 1.71. How exactly do you account for that discrepancy?

Mexico actually maintains a positive natural growth rate. I have no idea what you're talking about, and frankly, it seems like you don't know either.
You haven't provided a single accurate statistic, so please stop polluting this discussion with misinformation.

Take the words right out of my mouth.😁
I was just about to write that regarding Russia; birth rates can always bounce back if there’s enough actual will to make it happen.😳

quietangler5 said:Russia hit a historic low in 1999 with a fertility rate of 1.16, yet by 2013, they were up to 1.71. How exactly do you account for that discrepancy?

Mexico actually maintains a positive natural growth rate. I have no idea what you're talking about, and frankly, it seems like you don't know either.
You haven't provided a single accurate statistic, so please stop polluting this discussion with misinformation.

Russia had a fertility rate of 1.23 in 1999, with a population of 147,267,000.
by 2011, the fertility was 1.51, while the population sat at 143,438,000.

It’s pretty fascinating how Russia managed to bump up those fertility numbers,
and whether these mathematical and statistical figures are even reliable enough to trust—or if we're looking at some kind of "Greece syndrome" situation—is a massive question...
but that really calls for a much deeper, more rigorous analysis than we can reasonably do here, which would just be a waste of time...

Mexico

Population growth rate:

-0.49% (2014 est.)
world ranking: 223

Birth rate:

10.59 births per 1,000 people (2014 est.)
world ranking: 182

Death rate:

9.3 deaths per 1,000 people (2014 est.)

Mexico ranks 223rd globally when you look at negative population decline rates,
meaning there are still 10 countries worse off, sitting down at 233...

The numbers I've laid out right here are exact, pulled directly from legitimate, professional institutions.
Whatever random figures you're throwing around certainly aren't accurate. I could show you exactly which ones they are, and if you actually bother to compare them, you'll see for yourself.
Real, solid data is what supports a meaningful topic and invites serious debate and deep analysis, rather than just this mindless guessing...

The very same source you're pulling your data from was claiming that Pristina had a population of 600,000...

I mean, seriously, what are we even talking about here? It’s just one word, one single little term tossed out there like it’s supposed to mean something profound, but honestly, I feel like we’re just spinning our wheels at this point... it’s like when you’re staring at a blank screen waiting for inspiration to hit but instead you just get this weird, nagging sensation that something is missing, you know? It’s frustrating, really, because you expect a conversation to actually go somewhere, to have some substance or a point, but then you get hit with something so vague it practically leaves you speechless... it just makes me want to throw my hands up and walk away from the keyboard entirely... kaže:
He’s gonna take the words right out of my mouth... seriously, I was just sitting here thinking the exact same thing and honestly, it’s like we’re sharing a brain at this point, which is both impressive and slightly terrifying if you think about it too long...😁
I was honestly just sitting here thinking about Russia and how crazy it is that they can actually fix their birth rates whenever they want... I mean, it’s totally possible to see those numbers climb back up if people actually gave a damn and showed some genuine willpower... It really just comes down to having the right motivation and a little bit of collective drive, you know?😳

Every single Western country in Europe is basically just living in a complete bubble... honestly, they have no clue what's actually happening out there...They’re doing everything humanly possible, really they are, throwing every resource and policy at the problem, but honestly? It’s like trying to plug a dam with a finger... it just doesn't work. Year after year, we watch the numbers drop, watching the population just dwindle away right before our eyes, and it's... well, it's devastating... It’s just this same old pattern we've been seeing for years now... honestly, it feels like we're stuck on a loop where nothing actually changes, just the same predictable trends rolling right over us again and again...
I mean, look at these numbers... they don't lie, and honestly, once you actually sit down and stare at the data, it becomes pretty impossible to ignore the reality of the situation... it’s all right there in black and white, staring us in the face...
It’s high time we took some seriously radical action... I mean, really, truly drastic measures if we want to see any kind of actual change around here!

Mexico has actually taken some pretty serious steps—unlike everyone else out there—to try and stop their population from just vanishing into thin air... but honestly? It’s still nowhere near enough!

Sean Nguyen74 said:The very same source you're pulling your data from was claiming that Pristina had a population of 600,000...

Seriously, which source or which random writer on this forum is actually out here claiming Pristina has 600,000 residents?!

Nicholas Martinez47 said:Russia had a fertility rate of 1.23 in 1999, with a population of 147,267,000.
by 2011, the fertility was 1.51, while the population sat at 143,438,000.

It’s pretty fascinating how Russia managed to bump up those fertility numbers,
and whether these mathematical and statistical figures are even reliable enough to trust—or if we're looking at some kind of "Greece syndrome" situation—is a massive question...
but that really calls for a much deeper, more rigorous analysis than we can reasonably do here, which would just be a waste of time...

Mexico

Population growth rate:

-0.49% (2014 est.)
world ranking: 223

Birth rate:

10.59 births per 1,000 people (2014 est.)
world ranking: 182

Death rate:

9.3 deaths per 1,000 people (2014 est.)

Mexico ranks 223rd globally when you look at negative population decline rates,
meaning there are still 10 countries worse off, sitting down at 233...

The numbers I've laid out right here are exact, pulled directly from legitimate, professional institutions.
Whatever random figures you're throwing around certainly aren't accurate. I could show you exactly which ones they are, and if you actually bother to compare them, you'll see for yourself.
Real, solid data is what supports a meaningful topic and invites serious debate and deep analysis, rather than just this mindless guessing...

I believe we have finally solved the mystery of where Nicholas Martinez pulls his numbers from. It is:
indexmundi
A truly very reliable source of information.🤣🤣