Gold: Past, Present, and Future

I scooped up gold at $580 when everyone else was shitting themselves.😁
Risky move, sure... but hey, us conspiracy theorists know how to play the game.

lonehawk5 said:It’s all one big conspiracy, man. A total conspiracy.🙂🤣

We really ought to add an emoji next to that name, given the nature of this thread. Now that I have some clout, perhaps I'll send over a formal request via official channels.

It’s all just one big conspiracy. 🙂

Despite all the hype surrounding it, prices have been stagnant for ages...
As I’m typing this, gas is dropping toward $3.7x per gallon—something I've been watching closely—and honestly, I haven't seen prices this low since the summer of 2011.

I love buying when everyone else is losing their minds and blood is being spilled on the streets. Based on the comments from retail traders and amateur speculators, you can tell this is actually a perfect time to pick things up. 😁

As a little something for those who don't succumb to mass hysteria or panic attacks, I’m sharing an excellent article for study:
http://www.larsschall.com/2013/02/17...rtant-signals/

:mig

As a follow-up to that, here is a quote from the legendary Warren Buffett:
"Investing today may well be harder than it has been at any time in our three decades of existence," writes Warren Buffett in his year-end letter. The Federal Reserve's "relentless interventions and manipulations" have left few purchase targets for Baupost, he laments. "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/12-br...#ixzz2LTkmuF3u

dustyheron5 said:I love buying when everyone else is losing their minds and blood is being spilled on the streets. Based on the comments from retail traders and amateur speculators, you can tell this is actually a perfect time to pick things up. 😁

As a little something for those who don't succumb to mass hysteria or panic attacks, I’m sharing an excellent article for study:
http://www.larsschall.com/2013/02/17...rtant-signals/

:mig

As a follow-up to that, here is a quote from the legendary Warren Buffett:
"Investing today may well be harder than it has been at any time in our three decades of existence," writes Warren Buffett in his year-end letter. The Federal Reserve's "relentless interventions and manipulations" have left few purchase targets for Baupost, he laments. "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/12-br...#ixzz2LTkmuF3u

Anyone who went short in September/October is up about 10-15% right now, depending on when they jumped in.
Anything else is just missed opportunity.

With the way the market is acting right now and how the Dollar is playing against the Euro... I’m thinking tomorrow might be a solid window for anyone looking to stack up physical bullion for the long haul, maybe 5 to 10 years out.

vividgull10 said:Anyone who went short in September/October is up about 10-15% right now, depending on when they jumped in.
Anything else is just missed opportunity.

Exactly.......just don't forget to actually lock in those profits.......personally, I don't bother with shorting gold; I'd much rather ride the winners. In the US, that meant picking up stocks like JASO, LDK, SPWR, or RNF, where the returns were 😍 well beyond that 10-15% mark....... 😁

That said, kudos to anyone who pulled a profit—regardless of the asset—because this market has been incredibly demanding lately.......

I THINK we could see prices dip down to $800-$900/oz this fall...
If that actually happens, I'm going all in—100%—and just seeing where it goes.

Here is some insight from a technical analysis expert focusing on gold (and silver).......

I’m starting to seriously weigh adding to my long-term metal positions—especially now that prices have finally hit the specific targets I outlined last week. I'll give myself one more day to sit with the decision before pulling the trigger.

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...-02-21-001.gif

lonehawk5 said:I scooped up gold at $580 when everyone else was shitting themselves.😁
Risky move, sure... but hey, us conspiracy theorists know how to play the game.

Well, I’m officially done with gold for now.🙂
It was a total madhouse (last night).. just constant buying, selling, then more buying.. honestly, more intense than anything else I've dealt with.
If luck is on my side, I'm waiting for a dip toward $530...

Just imagine what a gold bubble would actually look like...

http://www.businessinsider.com/ultra...ard-russell-10

dustyheron5 said:Just imagine what a gold bubble would actually look like...

http://www.businessinsider.com/ultra...ard-russell-10

You can find absolutely any kind of nonsense online these days😁
If only I had the time to read it all...

lonehawk5 said:You can find absolutely any kind of nonsense online these days😁
If only I had the time to read it all...

Look, someone has to be responsible for maintaining a sense of optimism regarding precious metals—not everyone can just blow horns (like the mainstream media or the G-20) claiming they're worthless. 😍

They hold assets, for instance, like certain stocks that might drop 30% overnight without anyone batting an eye—or even the Euro, which could face disintegration, or the Dollar, which could just as easily tank 20-30% overnight if things go south for Americans. 😁

Personally, I don't view precious metals as a fetish; I see them as a liquid asset that needs to be held in a certain percentage to prepare for unforeseen developments. 😉

It seems highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will pull the plug on their stimulus measures anytime soon........

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91L02I20130222

Gold entering backwardation...

Alert: Gold in Backwardation Again!

Publication date: 2013-02-21
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By Philippe Herlin - Researcher in finance / Contributor to Goldbroker.com

What is backwardation? Typically, with gold—or indeed any commodity—the price of a future or a term contract sits higher than the current spot price. This is standard practice. To guarantee the delivery of a commodity down the road, an investor must borrow capital to secure the asset today and pay for its storage until the delivery date. That carrying cost is baked into a future price that remains higher than the spot price.

Under normal circumstances, that is the rule. However, we occasionally see the spot price climb above the future price. This occurs when intense demand meets a shortage in supply—when the market simply cannot keep up. This state is known as backwardation (the inverse, known as contango, represents the status quo).

While this makes sense for most commodities where inventories can run dry, it is harder to justify with gold. Gold isn't a consumable commodity; it isn't used up or transformed upon acquisition. It is simply held.

The quantity of Gold in The World never diminishes—in fact, it grows steadily through mining. Therefore, under normal conditions, gold should never experience backwardation. Theoretically, such a scenario shouldn't even exist—one could simply sell physical gold for cash and immediately buy it back via a futures contract to lock in a risk-free profit. In an era where the markets are scrutinized 24/7 by thousands of professionals utilizing highly advanced algorithms, an anomaly like this should vanish in seconds. Yet, we have seen it persist for several days at a time.

There is only one logical explanation for gold entering backwardation: a total loss of confidence. Buyers in the futures market are essentially betting that there is a real risk the contract won't be honored—that the actual physical gold won't be delivered. Even if a profit opportunity exists, they aren't looking to arbitrage; they are choosing to cling to their physical bullion.

Backwardation persists as long as the crisis of confidence does. And we aren't just talking about market jitters—we are talking about confidence in the entire monetary system. If backwardation becomes a permanent fixture, gold will become unavailable at any price. Holders of gold bars will refuse to sell regardless of the offer, simply because they no longer trust the paper currency being used to pay them—which, frankly, feels like the opening act of hyperinflation.

Historically, the gold market has stayed in contango. Since the turn of the millennium, it has largely mirrored interest rate trends, moving downward as the cost of money decreased. Gold was in backwardation for several Days The First time in December 2008—immediately following the Lehman Brothers collapse and the resulting market chaos. We saw it again in May 2012 during the height of the European debt crisis. Now, we are seeing it once more—a clear indicator of deep-seated tension, even if prices seem relatively steady for the moment. But the question remains: how much longer?

How many times do we have to go over this? 🙂 And how is that supposed to impact gold prices? Not at all. 🤣

Look, Evo Fed is printing money, yet gold isn't even moving up? Someone out there claimed that was the only thing that mattered!
Others were calling for 1880 by late February or early March. 🙄

analogharbor44 said:How many times do we have to go over this? 🙂 And how is that supposed to impact gold prices? Not at all. 🤣

Look, Evo Fed is printing money, yet gold isn't even moving up? Someone out there claimed that was the only thing that mattered!
Others were calling for 1880 by late February or early March. 🙄

The market can remain irrational far longer than an average investor can stay solvent... and just when most people are 100% certain they can't take any more hits... blink, and you're suddenly underwater. 😍

If you don't believe in a bull market for metals, you can always sell—just like everyone else.
No one is forcing you to hold them. You know how the biggest shills in finance operate... this isn't advice to buy or to sell. 😂

When I look at US equities, it looks like a bubble inflated to an agonizing degree—the fundamentals will crash, leaving people wondering how it happened.
Metals, on the other hand, aren't in a bubble at all. For instance, gold hasn't even reached its inflation-adjusted 1908 peak—which should be closer to $2,413—and silver is even more undervalued since it's the only asset that hasn't surpassed its nominal 1980 high.

Spot on. Just don't forget to actually lock in those profits... personally, I’ve never been one for shorting gold. When things get volatile like this, I’d much rather ride the wave of what’s actually climbing. In the States, that meant betting on stocks—everything except the miners, which I’m still holding onto. I’m talking about names like JASO, LDK, SPWR, or RNF, where I managed to pull in upwards of 10-15% gains.

That said, hats off to anyone who walked away with a win, regardless of their strategy. This market has been a total beast lately.
__________________

I suspect the miners are heading for a rough patch. Extraction costs are skyrocketing while gold prices seem stuck in neutral. You only have to look at NUGT (that gold miner bull ETF) to see how hard it's cratering. Some of these mining companies might just fold under that kind of pressure.

Look, I know everyone’s got their own struggles, but I honestly get this nagging feeling that coal miners might actually be pulling in better numbers than the entire US economy combined.
😍

dustyheron5 said:The market can remain irrational far longer than an average investor can stay solvent... and just when most people are 100% certain they can't take any more hits... blink, and you're suddenly underwater. 😍

If you don't believe in a bull market for metals, you can always sell—just like everyone else.
No one is forcing you to hold them. You know how the biggest shills in finance operate... this isn't advice to buy or to sell. 😂

When I look at US equities, it looks like a bubble inflated to an agonizing degree—the fundamentals will crash, leaving people wondering how it happened.
Metals, on the other hand, aren't in a bubble at all. For instance, gold hasn't even reached its inflation-adjusted 1908 peak—which should be closer to $2,413—and silver is even more undervalued since it's the only asset that hasn't surpassed its nominal 1980 high.

I'm already seeing people diving headfirst into massive gold shorts lately—total deer mode.😂

Honestly, neither side can be right—those shorting the metal and those who were on the other side simultaneously. Next week will reveal who actually came out on top.😉

Maguire - Stunning $ 24 Premiums for Gold in New York today whistleblower

Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News about The stunning premiums being paid in New York for Gold , and What price investors and traders need to watch to see buy stops triggered on The upside in The Gold market. this is The third and Final in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting The curtain on What is going on behind The Scenes in The ongoing Gold and silver War which continues to rage. Below is Part iii of Maguire’s extraordinary interview.

Whistleblower Andrew Maguire: “We were already hearing rumors two weeks ago of another CME broker default (when gold was pushing $1,700), and I think something had to be done. Up until The Monday When the US went on holiday, these dips were being aggressively bought, forcing the bullion banks on the bid to meet every allocation.
This is why gold couldn’t break down below the mid-$1,650s. So what did they (bullion banks) do? They waited until the paper markets had no competition. Waited until the US was on holiday and most of America was closed, and then they targeted absolutely visible long stops.

“You can be absolutely sure, Eric, that the bullion banks are short covering into this supply. Their footprints are all over it.

I mean the premiums in New York this Morning were over $24 an ounce for gold. We’re (trading) $1,608 (for gold) in New York.
The paper market longs have been tricked into selling. Obviously the managed money and the specs are now being tricked into short selling. Who do you think is on the long side of those trades?

These bullion banks have actually successfully transferred massive short positions into very weak hands. And this next week is going to provide large short fuel above the market. As soon as this leveraged selling is insufficient to meet the bullion bank buying, which will happen, if not today it will be early next week.

They are simply going to run out of sell power vs what the bullion banks are forced to buy because the physical market is so strong.”

Eric King: “Andrew, as you know they’ve been all over the mainstream media trumping the end of the bull market. They are talking $1,200 gold and claiming a collapse is in front of us here, your thoughts on that?”

Maguire: “Yes, you’ve seen an absolute crescendo of it. It’s by no coincidence either, talking about the ‘Death Cross,’ (and saying) Soros sold. Soros sold a measly 18 tons last year. You don’t think the guy is on the bid now?

Do you remember when you and I had this talk at the end of last year when all the rumors were that Paulson was selling? Do you remember that you and I said ‘that’s impossible. I guarantee he’s not selling.’ Sure enough he had not sold. He’s the one that’s holding on to his gold position.

The level of disinformation circulating right now is truly staggering. We are witnessing a bottoming process where the bullion banks shift their short positions onto much more vulnerable players. Given how incredibly strong the demand is in the physical market, expect a sharp, rapid reversal.

There is a massive amount of short fuel sitting just above current levels. Looking at the managed money short positions, we have entered bubble territory. This concentrated short fuel will inevitably trigger aggressive short covering—once prices push back into the $1,600 range, those central bank stop-limit orders will hit, and the discount window will slam shut fast.

2011 was a year where gold saw massive rallies followed by brutal crashes...
It was an absolute disaster for long-term investors if they bought at the peak. Looking at how dull the drill has been here in 2013, there really shouldn't be years with swings of several hundred dollars. But hey, who knows.
It’s already obvious that things are getting significantly more complicated in the market.
I still maintain that for anyone without gold, buying and holding it as insurance is the smart move. I could easily pick up 8 or 10 ounces tomorrow to solidify my position while staying liquid, but I won't do anything out of pure panic. I'll wait for the market to start "drawing pistols" and send prices through the roof. I've already paid a premium for everything, even though there were times when I was bone dry. Being broke actually forced me to sell 3 ounces in early 2012 due to some other unexpected events. My Goldman Sachs moment.
So, let the market decide how much further it wants to squeeze everything downward. Personally, it would actually be quite uncomfortable if prices spiked right now. That's when I'd jump back in to patch the obvious hole in my own balance sheet. I can smell trouble coming—mostly due to paper trading, but an extra hit to gold isn't out of the question. Maybe I'll grab some silver; that wouldn't hurt either, perhaps even more for the long term. Right now, I'm sitting on 370 ounces, which feels a bit light.
Just to comment on the ratio of the NYSE to gold: it's currently over 8, which is quite something.
The NYSE itself is at 14,000, which is high—bordering on ridiculously unrealistic, especially considering the dollar still has decent purchasing power, but whatever.☕

"Another telegram was sent into the ether, and then all went silent. The coffin lid closed over the sixth army (and a fascist one at that)..."