Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Downside potential is extremely limited—while the upside looks pretty substantial.
Take a close look at this chart...😍

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rDe6nkVunq.../s1600/COT.png

http://thetsitrader.blogspot.ca/2013...ged-money.html

It’s just a minor chart, and honestly, a short position on paper Gold isn't exactly catastrophic.😁
Besides, it isn't exactly Vincent van Gogh; he's the only true magician I know—everything looks realistic, yet it's all an illusion...
Whenever there's a massive short position in paper Gold, those "players" always find a way to suppress the price just to cover their tracks. If only I knew how they pull it off or when they intend to strike, I might actually be able to navigate this better...
To quote Gargamel:
I'll get you, I'll get you all, even if it's the last thing I do...
Whether his plan actually works remains to be seen...

Since I didn't get this out immediately, I will provide it now.😍............beyond just looking at the chart, you really need to digest the underlying data.😂...or perhaps it would be more efficient if I simply posted the analysis from my own site here;

"A quick update regarding Gold......

After dropping to $1,550, Gold finished the week at $1,580—which represents the lower boundary on the weekly chart.
The primary driver behind the current bullish sentiment in Gold is the COT report (Commitment of Traders)—essentially, the positioning of the major players.
The logic is straightforward: whenever hedge funds overextend themselves in either long or short positions, major bullion banks (the commercial players) flip the script. They drive the trend against those overextended positions to capture profit........
We are talking about institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and others.......

With that in mind, we must examine the managed money short positions on Gold:

What does the data reveal?
The chart shows a clear pattern: every time hedge funds aggressively entered short positions, we hit a local price floor for Gold. Simultaneously, the major banks pushed prices upward, effectively wiping out the hedge funds—and the retail investors along with them)........
It is visible on the graph where these local bottoms occur; they consistently coincide with record-level short positions by hedge funds, which generates massive revenue for the bullion banks.......and currently, hedge fund short positions have reached their most massive levels since 2008.

Here is the full text:
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.ca/2013...ged-money.html

For anyone interested in studying the mechanics further—and if you can spare a few hours for it—this is an excellent resource:

http://treo.typepad.com/files/201302...-cot-notes.pdf

The conclusion: for those considering a long position in Gold, the timing is ideal. Monday will likely be one of the best entry points, similar to last Friday.........I realize the average investor is feeling fearful right now, but that is precisely the point—very few investors possess the courage required for true contrarian thinking and action.

Regards,

They might try to shave them down just to book some paper profits. Sure, a profit is a profit... But it’s not exactly in the banks' best interest for this game to end on paper alone. There is still plenty of money to be made out there, so I highly doubt they'll attempt to push past $2,000 via paper Gold. Besides, if they can make better margins elsewhere and hedge with paper, why bother aggressively hiking the price through paper Gold? The Dollar still has some decent purchasing power left in it...
That said, if someone really wants to push for short-term gains, let them. We'll see how that ends up working out for them. Personally, I don't see that looking good in any realistic scenario...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg58hVEY5Og

"to be or not to be"😁 And just like that, it's gone. Or maybe I should just call this whole ship a sinking vessel...
And honestly, I always appreciate it when Kirk shakes my hand.😂

hollowmoose21 is being a skeptic. Honestly? I think that’s a solid red flag. 😁

hollowmoose21 said:hollowmoose21 is being a skeptic. Honestly? I think that’s a solid red flag. 😁

I wouldn't underestimate the paper-pushers in the bond market. They have a knack for cutting interest rates in half just to keep the retail speculators on the hook for as long as possible. Sure, it puts the entire bond market at risk, but we apparently have plenty of "future reserves" to burn through. 😉
So, I’m skeptical about the short-term forecast, nothing more. Long-term? I’m a moderate optimist. Where the price is headed... well, I'll leave that to the experts.

Just stating the facts: I was bullish on gold when it was sitting at $1,000. It’s nearing $1,600 now. Silver was under $20; today it’s pushing $30. That’s a 50% gain in both instances. I doubt many people on this board can claim the same.
That was back in 2009 or 2010. I don't see why anyone would call that a reliable contrarian indicator. A little clarification would be appreciated, especially since I’ve always emphasized looking at the long-term forecast.

Robert Vaughn10 said:2011 was a year where gold saw massive rallies followed by brutal crashes...
It was an absolute disaster for long-term investors if they bought at the peak. Looking at how dull the drill has been here in 2013, there really shouldn't be years with swings of several hundred dollars. But hey, who knows.
It’s already obvious that things are getting significantly more complicated in the market.
I still maintain that for anyone without gold, buying and holding it as insurance is the smart move. I could easily pick up 8 or 10 ounces tomorrow to solidify my position while staying liquid, but I won't do anything out of pure panic. I'll wait for the market to start "drawing pistols" and send prices through the roof. I've already paid a premium for everything, even though there were times when I was bone dry. Being broke actually forced me to sell 3 ounces in early 2012 due to some other unexpected events. My Goldman Sachs moment.
So, let the market decide how much further it wants to squeeze everything downward. Personally, it would actually be quite uncomfortable if prices spiked right now. That's when I'd jump back in to patch the obvious hole in my own balance sheet. I can smell trouble coming—mostly due to paper trading, but an extra hit to gold isn't out of the question. Maybe I'll grab some silver; that wouldn't hurt either, perhaps even more for the long term. Right now, I'm sitting on 370 ounces, which feels a bit light.
Just to comment on the ratio of the NYSE to gold: it's currently over 8, which is quite something.
The NYSE itself is at 14,000, which is high—bordering on ridiculously unrealistic, especially considering the dollar still has decent purchasing power, but whatever.☕

"Another telegram was sent into the ether, and then all went silent. The coffin lid closed over the sixth army (and a fascist one at that)..."

😲

I was just skimming through your posts, and while you were talking about gold, that number "370 ounces" jumped right out at me. I did a quick bit of math in my head and realized that's worth something like $750,000... and I thought, man, this guy is sitting on a massive nest egg.

It wasn't until I read it a third time that I realized you were actually talking about silver, though even then, it's still a pretty impressive stash, just obviously a smaller total value.

hollowmoose21 said:hollowmoose21 is being a skeptic. Honestly? I think that’s a solid red flag. 😁

Good? No—it’s excellent. 😍

Here is some context from Martin Armstrong:
This is not about gold going to $30,000 an ounce. 😉
This is about tangible assets providing the bridge when the currencies collapse and what we have today is replaced by something new.
Our major risk is that everything falls apart and we descend into trade and currency wars as politicians once again try to cling to power rather than reform.

Here, have some food for thought. 😍

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&...z8ulwO954HUfmw

And don't forget to read the whole thing. If you feel like it, of course.
"Aaaa, the game is afoot." 😉

We’ll see how this plays out... but as I previously noted—the commercial players have effectively flipped the hedge funds on their heads (those guys got caught in record-breaking short positions). Tomorrow, we will likely see gold prices climb above 1,600—in my honest opinion—before they perhaps attempt another crash just to lure in a few more naive investors. Though, I doubt that’s even profitable for them anymore, given how quickly they're running out of "clients" on the short side. It's smarter for them to nudge the price up gradually to entice the long crowd; once enough people are positioned there, they can pull the rug out from under them just like they did to those who walked straight into the slaughterhouse on the short side.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-collapse.html

🙂 🙂

Melissa Sanchez17 said:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-collapse.html

🙂 🙂

The hedge funds have been caught on the wrong side of the trade—they got flipped and stripped of their capital. Gold is sitting at 1600 right now. 😉 Now we can expect a new round of manipulation for the exact same purpose—whether they drive the market up or down. 😉

Based on my past experience with Goldman Sachs'—let's call them "contrarian"—recommendations, things are likely headed up.😂

Jeffrey Tucker on
paper Money🙂

dustyheron5 said:The hedge funds have been caught on the wrong side of the trade—they got flipped and stripped of their capital. Gold is sitting at 1600 right now. 😉 Now we can expect a new round of manipulation for the exact same purpose—whether they drive the market up or down. 😉

Based on my past experience with Goldman Sachs'—let's call them "contrarian"—recommendations, things are likely headed up.😂

Another contrarian indicator? 😁
Nah, explain this to me instead:
The support for gold in Feb is 1574. The resistance stands at 1667-1690. The support will begin to fade in March and The number to watch will become 1638. The primary support Lies AT The Three Monthly Bearish Reversals. Once they give way, then we can see a real break. M. Armstrong
😁

hollowmoose21 said:Another contrarian indicator? 😁
Nah, explain this to me instead:
The support for gold in Feb is 1574. The resistance stands at 1667-1690. The support will begin to fade in March and The number to watch will become 1638. The primary support Lies AT The Three Monthly Bearish Reversals. Once they give way, then we can see a real break. M. Armstrong
😁

I saw 😉

If that support doesn't hold (on the monthly chart), gold will test $1,160 again. 🤣

But that’s Martin Armstrong—he's a cycle expert, which is a different league than me. I don't follow that school of thought; I find it all fundamentally distorted and believe no single indicator is actually grounded in market reality... plus, I don't think anyone can truly know what happens three, four, or five years down the line. The maximum window you can successfully forecast in the markets is maybe 3–6 months—and even then, only if you are watching macroeconomics and smart money movements very closely... or if you have a master-level grasp of technical analysis.

In any case, there was a more detailed version just before that text:😉
Gold closed on Friday AT 1574.8. The major support is highlighted by the Monthly Bearish Reversals at 15470, 15410, and 15320. This is the critical support and a monthly closing beneath these three reversals will confirm we should retest the 1160 area. A minor Monthly Bullish stands at 17580. The next Two Weekly Bearish Reversals ara 15640 and 15320. From a timing perspective, next week is a turning point followed by Panic Cycle The Week of March 11 th. Volatility should reach a high The Week of March 18 th. This week is a Directional Change. The key is the monthly levels and until these three are taken out, then gold is still basing. Daily closing resistance is at 1652.

Overall, February was a Directional Change and that Has been on The money. High volatility appears in april and The next major turning Point will be May followed by Sept / Oct. We still see gold rising after 2015.75.

By the way, for those who aren't following Armstrong: just a heads up, Martin is expecting gold prices to drop and the bull market to only resume in 2015 (around August/September)—so, take that for what it's worth. 🙂

On the other hand, you have people pointing to a death cross on gold's technical charts... but that doesn't work the same way for gold as it does for stocks—in fact, it suggests the exact opposite:

@Jim Rickards
A friend told me that dismissing TA is foolish—I had to remind him about the 2008 " Death Cross ", right before #Gold rallied to $1900
Retweeted by Jim Rickards

Pure contra-indicators if you ask me... just look at the data. 😂

The only indicator you can actually trust... Ben Bernanke... the second he opens his mouth, gold prices crater... that's just the OMO effect in action...😍

dustyheron5 said:On the other hand, you have people pointing to a death cross on gold's technical charts... but that doesn't work the same way for gold as it does for stocks—in fact, it suggests the exact opposite:

@Jim Rickards
A friend told me that dismissing TA is foolish—I had to remind him about the 2008 " Death Cross ", right before #Gold rallied to $1900
Retweeted by Jim Rickards

Pure contra-indicators if you ask me... just look at the data. 😂

True, but don't forget James Rickards always stresses keeping 10-20% in gold as a conservative-aggressive play. That's a pretty significant detail too.

Of course it’s dipping—no sane investor expects everything to be wrapped in gold or silver... what's your take? 😂

btw gold is at $1,614😍.......it completely wiped those hedge funds out—just like I said they would 😉