Gold: Past, Present, and Future

rustyseal5 said:Look, my take is simple: if you already hold gold, don't touch it. If you're looking at a medium to long-term play, go ahead and buy. But if you're eyeing a 6 to 12-month window? Stay away.

I honestly don't get why people struggle to grasp my point. I am telling people: do not buy gold if you need that cash back in six months or a year. It's a gamble. Nobody—and I mean nobody—can tell you what the price will be in 6 months versus 12 months. Anyone claiming they know whether it's going up or down is simply LYING to your face.

As far as the long-term trend goes, I think we can all agree that gold is headed up. 🤷

And how do you know a crisis won't hit tomorrow? If it does, those without it will be left stranded. You don't actually know, yet you insist people shouldn't buy. That's probability, not certainty. Personally, I try to keep my gambling exposure to a minimum. In fact, for the short term, I'm almost rooting for a price drop—just so I can prepare better and lock everything in to secure myself for the very long haul. But even if it climbs, I won't be caught off guard. For prices to spike like that, things would have to go completely haywire, and I might take a hit on the paper side. Nothing is ever certain, including my own take, so... I suppose one should just appreciate the beauty of the game. If I were bored, I wouldn't be saying any of this.

So, if you gold bugs claim to have no idea what tomorrow holds, why aren't you picking up something like this instead?
http://johnnyforever.files.wordpress...-u-sumi-59.jpg. Or frankly, any piece of fine art from a recognized master. That’s
actual protection against inflation, currency fluctuations, or shifts in the monetary system—not just some shiny, colored pebble.

Paint might hold its value better in the short term, but it’s far more fragile.Metal requires almost impossible conditions to destroy, and it's much easier to preserve. Plus, the market for art is tiny, and nobody would even consider buying a painting that's damaged or warped...

The TL;DR version for all you fundamentalists out there...
According to the CBO's baseline projections for the ten-year outlook, that budget deficit is supposed to plummet from the current 7% of GDP down to just 2.5% in only three years. We’re talking about the $1.15 trillion deficit from 2012 shrinking all the way down to a measly $433 billion by 2015. They're predicting nominal economic growth of 3.1%, 3.5%, and then hitting 5.9%. Apparently, tax revenue is going to skyrocket while spending stays under control. Plus, they claim interest on ten-year Treasuries won't top 3.5% by 2015. And since the Federal Reserve promised to keep things steady, interest on 90-day Treasuries shouldn't climb above 20 bps. Inflation will remain high and the interest component of the consolidated budget will go from $223 billion to a mere $273 billion.

If this actually happens, where the hell is gold gonna be?☕

lonehawk5 said:The TL;DR version for all you fundamentalists out there...
According to the CBO's baseline projections for the ten-year outlook, that budget deficit is supposed to plummet from the current 7% of GDP down to just 2.5% in only three years. We’re talking about the $1.15 trillion deficit from 2012 shrinking all the way down to a measly $433 billion by 2015. They're predicting nominal economic growth of 3.1%, 3.5%, and then hitting 5.9%. Apparently, tax revenue is going to skyrocket while spending stays under control. Plus, they claim interest on ten-year Treasuries won't top 3.5% by 2015. And since the Federal Reserve promised to keep things steady, interest on 90-day Treasuries shouldn't climb above 20 bps. Inflation will remain high and the interest component of the consolidated budget will go from $223 billion to a mere $273 billion.

If this actually happens, where the hell is gold gonna be?☕

You're looking at a best-case scenario. If this holds, the paper economy stabilizes and we finally exit the crisis. But you're asking about gold... A crisis will likely return eventually—maybe not in ten years, perhaps in fifty. That’s when gold, which acts as a long-term store of value, finally pays off.😉
I still prefer having that insurance policy on hand, whether I need it this afternoon or when I'm ninety.

Robert Vaughn10 said:And how do you know a crisis won't hit tomorrow? If it does, those without it will be left stranded. You don't actually know, yet you insist people shouldn't buy. That's probability, not certainty. Personally, I try to keep my gambling exposure to a minimum. In fact, for the short term, I'm almost rooting for a price drop—just so I can prepare better and lock everything in to secure myself for the very long haul. But even if it climbs, I won't be caught off guard. For prices to spike like that, things would have to go completely haywire, and I might take a hit on the paper side. Nothing is ever certain, including my own take, so... I suppose one should just appreciate the beauty of the game. If I were bored, I wouldn't be saying any of this.

Am I accidentally typing in Turkish or something? 😕

Do you even grasp what I was trying to say? Because if you actually understood my point, then your response to me makes absolutely zero sense.

If you want to strip away the anxiety and stop playing games with your future, here’s the move: buy a piece of gold today using whatever cash you know you’re going to need six to twelve months down the line. Then, take that same amount and park it in a high-yield savings account. I’ve been watching the markets closely for the last eighteen months, and frankly, my gut was right on this one. It works.

If you want to strip away the gambling aspect entirely, you aren't looking at year-to-year flips. You’re talking about buying gold for the long haul. We're talking decades, not twelve-month cycles. I remember my old man used to say that if you're trying to time the market on precious metals, you've already lost the game. Real stability comes from holding steady while everyone else panics over the daily news cycle. Don't get cute with it. Buy it, tuck it away, and stop checking the price every morning.

I honestly don't get why you people keep baiting them. You’re essentially luring people into a trap because a massive crowd of uninformed readers fell for the hype. Now, they're stuck. They went in looking for a quick win, but because they didn't know what they were doing, their "short-term play" suddenly turned into a long-term holding they can't even exit. It's a mess.

Honestly, in the short term, I’m actually rooting for a price drop. I want to see it dip just enough so I can dig my heels in, stack my position, and basically cement myself in for the long haul. I want that rock-solid foundation. But hey, if the market decides to moon instead? I won't be caught sleeping. If things really take off, I might end up taking a hit on paper—my unrealized gains would look great, but my actual liquidity might feel the squeeze. Nothing is ever a sure bet, not even my own rambling theories, so why stress? At the end of the day, you just have to appreciate the sheer spectacle of the game. If this wasn't thrilling, I wouldn't bother talking about it at all.

Look, you’re trying to have your cake and eat it too. You want the best of both worlds, but that's just not how the math works. You can't apply that logic to everyone. Some people aren't even looking at long-term savings or retirement funds; they’re just playing around with whatever extra cash they have sitting in their checking account right now. It's all about immediate liquidity for them.

lonehawk5 said:The TL;DR version for all you fundamentalists out there...
According to the CBO's baseline projections for the ten-year outlook, that budget deficit is supposed to plummet from the current 7% of GDP down to just 2.5% in only three years. We’re talking about the $1.15 trillion deficit from 2012 shrinking all the way down to a measly $433 billion by 2015. They're predicting nominal economic growth of 3.1%, 3.5%, and then hitting 5.9%. Apparently, tax revenue is going to skyrocket while spending stays under control. Plus, they claim interest on ten-year Treasuries won't top 3.5% by 2015. And since the Federal Reserve promised to keep things steady, interest on 90-day Treasuries shouldn't climb above 20 bps. Inflation will remain high and the interest component of the consolidated budget will go from $223 billion to a mere $273 billion.

If this actually happens, where the hell is gold gonna be?☕

Even the hawks back then knew two years out that a total collapse wasn't happening. Honestly, anyone who didn't spend all day reading nothing but gold-bug forums could have seen that coming.

It's pretty obvious that the US will gradually shed its debt burden through a mix of steady growth and slightly elevated inflation—though I don't see it breaking 5%. This is the same playbook that will play out in Europe once the Eurozone falls apart, in Japan, and frankly, it's already happening in the rest of the world.

All of this points to one thing: gold is still a long-term winner.

Robert Vaughn10 said:You're looking at a best-case scenario. If this holds, the paper economy stabilizes and we finally exit the crisis. But you're asking about gold... A crisis will likely return eventually—maybe not in ten years, perhaps in fifty. That’s when gold, which acts as a long-term store of value, finally pays off.😉
I still prefer having that insurance policy on hand, whether I need it this afternoon or when I'm ninety.

We aren't the USA. The US economy has been growing for three years straight. This country has always been a total circus, and frankly, nothing has changed.

We aren't getting out of this crisis anytime soon.

Raymond Vaughn8 said:So, if you gold bugs claim to have no idea what tomorrow holds, why aren't you picking up something like this instead?
http://johnnyforever.files.wordpress...-u-sumi-59.jpg. Or frankly, any piece of fine art from a recognized master. That’s
actual protection against inflation, currency fluctuations, or shifts in the monetary system—not just some shiny, colored pebble.

Because people haven't been "brainwashed" into believing in gold the way they have. 🤷

rustyseal5 said:We aren't the USA. The US economy has been growing for three years straight. This country has always been a total circus, and frankly, nothing has changed.

We aren't getting out of this crisis anytime soon.

Fine. And? In my household, we’ve barricaded ourselves on just about every level... from production all the way down to consumption.
So, prices are crashing? Great. That creates the assumption of growth built on actual foundations. Agony? Personally, I expect at least another 20 years of this...
I'm talking about my own family; everyone else can fend for themselves, and the people at the top can handle the state.😉
Since nobody wants to listen anyway.
Besides, we'll probably join the European Union, so maybe we can remain a dysfunctional mess for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can manage it...
Actually, half—if not more—of the countries in the European Union are practically dysfunctional. That much seems obvious.🤣

Good grief, you all are making such a massive fuss over this minor correction.

Take a look at the ten-year charts instead of obsessing over the last six months, or even just the past year.

I’ve been buying since 2007, and my stance remains aggressively bullish. I'm right along with Jim Rogers and Marc Faber on this one.

The fundamental drivers for gold haven't budged; nothing has actually been resolved yet.

The underlying trend is clear: in the coming era, the world will have to shift from a dollar-dominated system to one where power is split among several currencies—some of which aren't even on anyone's radar right now. That transition simply cannot happen without gold.

☕

Robert Vaughn10 said:Fine. And? In my household, we’ve barricaded ourselves on just about every level... from production all the way down to consumption.
So, prices are crashing? Great. That creates the assumption of growth built on actual foundations. Agony? Personally, I expect at least another 20 years of this...
I'm talking about my own family; everyone else can fend for themselves, and the people at the top can handle the state.😉
Since nobody wants to listen anyway.
Besides, we'll probably join the European Union, so maybe we can remain a dysfunctional mess for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can manage it...
Actually, half—if not more—of the countries in the European Union are practically dysfunctional. That much seems obvious.🤣

Glad you're feeling good about it. 😉

Besides, we’ll probably just integrate further into the system, so maybe we can play the "banana republic" card for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can pull it off...
Let's face it, half—if not more—of the countries in the EU are basically banana republics. That much is obvious.🤣

I'm with you on that. But don't look at Romania or Bulgaria as the benchmark; they haven't even been in the club for ten years. Look at Greece, Portugal, or Spain—they've been members for decades.

The EU members are neck-deep in a massive pile of crap. It's clear we're watching an era of global dominance reach its final, desperate gasp.

Now, all they have left to do is try to manufacture some kind of "United States of Europe" fantasy, and the endless cycle of fake happiness will continue.

goldencrane15 said:Good grief, you all are making such a massive fuss over this minor correction.

Take a look at the ten-year charts instead of obsessing over the last six months, or even just the past year.

I’ve been buying since 2007, and my stance remains aggressively bullish. I'm right along with Jim Rogers and Marc Faber on this one.

The fundamental drivers for gold haven't budged; nothing has actually been resolved yet.

The underlying trend is clear: in the coming era, the world will have to shift from a dollar-dominated system to one where power is split among several currencies—some of which aren't even on anyone's radar right now. That transition simply cannot happen without gold.

☕

Look, there is absolutely no way China, India, Brazil, or Russia are ever going to back their money with gold. You only need to look at how much cash they’re printing to see the truth. Compared to them, the United States looks like a little kid playing in a sandbox.

The United States walked away from the gold standard for a reason, and frankly, there’s zero chance that China, India, or Brazil are going to tether their currencies to gold anytime soon.

You’re never going to see that movie play out.

Maybe if you asked the Germans, but nobody's really asking them anymore, especially since their global influence is shrinking by the day.

As for the dollar's dominance? It’s staying put for now. Sure, it'll lose its grip, but the dollar isn't going to stop being the heavyweight champion of the world overnight. This is a long, slow grind.

rustyseal5 said:Because people haven't been "brainwashed" into believing in gold the way they have. 🤷

And how exactly do you view a painting—with something other than your brain? So, according to this logic, one needs to "wash their brain" just to appreciate art. Ergo, we should all just drone on about gold. I’ve seen enough in practice to know gold preserves value; as for paintings, I’m not even sure what exactly they preserve given how easily they can be burned or ruined. That doesn't mean art isn't a decent way to store wealth—perhaps even more efficient in some ways—but it comes with baggage and question marks. Gold minimizes those uncertainties. If someone wants both gold and fine art, by all means, go ahead. But to me, owning art without owning gold is just illogical. You have to eat every day, and as far as I know, gold has a much larger market than paintings.

Look, what I’m saying is that images function just like gold does. You have this endless flood of websites and mainstream media outlets constantly buzzing about it every single day. If we had seen the same kind of frenzy surrounding digital imagery that we've witnessed with gold over the last eight years, then images would be just as much of a high-demand commodity right now.

rustyseal5 said:Glad you're feeling good about it. 😉

Besides, we’ll probably just integrate further into the system, so maybe we can play the "banana republic" card for a little longer. Something like Romania or Bulgaria. If they can pull it off...
Let's face it, half—if not more—of the countries in the EU are basically banana republics. That much is obvious.🤣

I'm with you on that. But don't look at Romania or Bulgaria as the benchmark; they haven't even been in the club for ten years. Look at Greece, Portugal, or Spain—they've been members for decades.

The EU members are neck-deep in a massive pile of crap. It's clear we're watching an era of global dominance reach its final, desperate gasp.

Now, all they have left to do is try to manufacture some kind of "United States of Europe" fantasy, and the endless cycle of fake happiness will continue.

And it's necessary... if I were actually in charge... I'd finish the job however I saw fit...
On another note, if I may observe, one of your eyes still hasn't quite closed.😉 🤣

rustyseal5 said:Look, what I’m saying is that images function just like gold does. You have this endless flood of websites and mainstream media outlets constantly buzzing about it every single day. If we had seen the same kind of frenzy surrounding digital imagery that we've witnessed with gold over the last eight years, then images would be just as much of a high-demand commodity right now.

Maybe. I didn't say that. I'm simply saying art is fragile and perishable. Gold isn't much different. When I claim gold preserves purchasing power, I mean it literally—it protects the actual value stored within. Owning gold gives you a stake in paper assets or even art if you choose. I have nothing against art, especially considering how they manipulate the paper price of gold. But insisting on art alone while ignoring gold? Not happening. Not to mention, art is far too expensive for the average person.
A legitimate painting is incredibly valuable. Take Vincent van Gogh, for example. If we're talking about two-dimensional works, that's art at its absolute peak.
Of course, that assumes such a thing were actually for sale and I had enough money left over after buying it...

I honestly believe gold would need to dip below $1,000 to really start shining from a long-term perspective.

It might still see some upward momentum for a little while longer.
But let’s be real—do you actually think you can make significant long-term gains on gold? Most retail traders just end up losing their shirts.
At the end of the day, gold is essentially just paper, much like any other stock, which means it's wide open to market manipulation. That's why all those complex theories and technical analyses often fall apart when things get real.
Stocks—and even precious metals—don't actually move based on the news like people tend to assume.
Instead, a price movement happens first, and then some news story conveniently emerges afterward to justify it. It's almost too perfect. If there isn't a headline that fits the direction speculators want to take, they'll either manufacture a reason or simply wait, leaving everyone else wondering if there's some grand conspiracy at play when nothing seems to trigger the move.

Sam Ruiz60 said:I honestly believe gold would need to dip below $1,000 to really start shining from a long-term perspective.

It might still see some upward momentum for a little while longer.
But let’s be real—do you actually think you can make significant long-term gains on gold? Most retail traders just end up losing their shirts.
At the end of the day, gold is essentially just paper, much like any other stock, which means it's wide open to market manipulation. That's why all those complex theories and technical analyses often fall apart when things get real.
Stocks—and even precious metals—don't actually move based on the news like people tend to assume.
Instead, a price movement happens first, and then some news story conveniently emerges afterward to justify it. It's almost too perfect. If there isn't a headline that fits the direction speculators want to take, they'll either manufacture a reason or simply wait, leaving everyone else wondering if there's some grand conspiracy at play when nothing seems to trigger the move.

What are you going to trade with if we hit high inflation or hyperinflation of fiat currency? And this idea that the little guy always loses... if I listened to you, people would be doing great because they'd be selling their gold at the absolute peak. What else is better?😉

Sam Ruiz60 said:I honestly believe gold would need to dip below $1,000 to really start shining from a long-term perspective.

It might still see some upward momentum for a little while longer.
But let’s be real—do you actually think you can make significant long-term gains on gold? Most retail traders just end up losing their shirts.
At the end of the day, gold is essentially just paper, much like any other stock, which means it's wide open to market manipulation. That's why all those complex theories and technical analyses often fall apart when things get real.
Stocks—and even precious metals—don't actually move based on the news like people tend to assume.
Instead, a price movement happens first, and then some news story conveniently emerges afterward to justify it. It's almost too perfect. If there isn't a headline that fits the direction speculators want to take, they'll either manufacture a reason or simply wait, leaving everyone else wondering if there's some grand conspiracy at play when nothing seems to trigger the move.

Look, my friend, you just said something that most people here won't grasp in their entire lives.😉
We've got people here who can read COT reports and interpret them perfectly, we've got the hardcore fundamentalists who know their stuff inside out, and we've got people who are certain gold will rise long-term... but there are very few who actually turn all that talk into actual cash.
Let me repeat: on this forum (and honestly, everywhere else), 95% of people bought gold at or near the peak, 2.5% caught the bottom, and maybe 2.5% hit that sweet spot in the middle over the last decade.
Of that 95%, at least a chunk of them are just sitting on losses, praying for a turnaround, while the rest have just swallowed the hit. As for that 2.5% that bought the bottom, most already cashed out ages ago, and those folks in the middle are just lying to themselves saying they haven't lost anything yet and could still make a killing. That's how it works—not just with gold, but with every single way you try to invest.
As for long-term price forecasts... I'm not even going there.🙂