Dennis Myers6 said:So, is there actually some kind of strategy or, I don't know, a real plan to make researching our system worth the money?
I'm talking about all those different ores, gases, water reserves, and stuff like that which 🙏 could actually be useful for our civilization, I guess.
Or is the whole space program just a purely human exploration thing, you know, like just seeing what's around the corner or if we're alone in space and all that?🙏
There are. People have run the numbers, and I don't mean those "let's build a space city for 30,000 people in orbit" fantasies—I mean actual, serious math. Everything boils down to the cost of launching one kilogram of payload into orbit. And getting one kg to the Moon? That’s roughly ten times more expensive because you're fighting to hit escape velocity and then dealing with the nightmare of soft landings.
Right now, we're looking at costs somewhere around $2,000 per launch (I can't remember the specifics on recovery, I think that's not factored in yet), and that's just for dead weight. No humans, nothing. Just cargo.
Any attempt to mine resources on the Moon is basically a non-starter at these rates. I mean, there's zero point in hauling ore back to Earth; the shipping costs would be astronomical, even for super rare materials. And trying to process them on the Moon and then ship the finished product? Forget it. Even if you try to optimize the price-to-shipping ratio, it’s impossible because you'd first have to haul an incredibly complex industrial plant up there, and then you'd have to bake that massive upfront cost into every single thing you produce.
Everything we can realistically achieve in the near future—maybe the next 25 years or so—is just setting up some base on the Moon that doesn't even really serve a major purpose, other than maybe finding out there's iron sitting there. Which will be completely useless to us.
Even when the private sector finally manages to crash the prices through mass launches (not to mention the environmental disaster that'll cause), it's unlikely they'll drop below a third of current prices. And honestly? That's still way too damn expensive.
So yeah, basically, we're just gonna sit here on Earth staring up at the Moon and the stars, just like we've been doing for the last million years.