casualtrucker7 said:Taking it easy regarding the third pillar—here’s a look at last year's returns for all the funds (via HR Portfolio):
Charles Schwab — 8.70
Stock market index fluctuations—Profit 11.89%
Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund performance data—4.30.
Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund performance data—looks like it hit 14.72.
Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund performance data—looks like 8.19.
Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund performance data—looks like it hit 5.45. I guess that's where we're at.
If you factor in that 25% tax credit for this kind of savings—aside from the 2008 crash when everything was tanking—it’s probably one of the best ways to save. The only real catch is that you can't touch the money until you hit 50, and even then, you only get 30% in cash—the rest stays locked away for retirement. I guess if you've already got a 401(k) set up, you made the right call.
I don't really agree that these funds are the absolute best way to save, mostly because "good" is subjective. What works for one person might not work for another depending on their specific goals and how much time they have left. There are a lot of variables, but here are the big ones.
The issue with the DFM is that you're locked in until you hit 50. But even after that, you can't take more than 30% in cash. This is the crucial part: you have to take the remaining 70% in installments over at least five years. Basically, you spend years accumulating a massive pile of money, only to have the Social Security Administration pay it out to you in dribs and drabs. The terms for those payouts are terrible, which makes sense since you have no choice. You should check what kind of interest they actually offer on that huge accumulated sum—say $50,000—that they "hold" for you. It's probably next to nothing, but look for yourself. They won't even guarantee you 1% on such a large amount, yet you signed a contract agreeing to let them pay out 70% of your savings over several years. To me, it's a poorly designed contract. It doesn't allow you to, say, put that $50,000 in a high-yield bank account to earn 5-6% interest or just move the whole lump sum elsewhere if the bank's rates suck. Instead, you've signed away control over 70% of your hard-earned money, and they aren't even willing to guarantee an interest rate on the balance once it moves from the fund to the Social Security administration for your private pension. Could they end up paying 0% interest on your final capital in the future? Maybe.
On the other hand, looking at annual returns for these funds is pretty misleading. Since we're talking about share values, if a fund drops 50% one year, it needs to grow by 100% the next just to break even, not 100% in profit. Take the biggest player, Raiffeisen; they had an 8.7% return this year, but they were down 12.23% over the last two years. That means someone who's been in for three years still has a long way to go just to get back to zero.
Thirdly, if the Democratic Party ever gets dismantled due to changes requested by the EU, this entire setup becomes a disaster because you wouldn't be able to pull your investment out and move it somewhere better.
Pay close attention to that 70% chunk of money. It's a huge amount that you can't walk away with; you have to use it under conditions that are currently unknown.
Before buying any financial product, you really need to dig into the fine print and see how it fits your current and future goals within your overall financial plan. When you do that, things often look a lot different.